Trading will BREAK YOUR BACK more than you can IMAGINETrading Will Break You Before You Master It: A Trader's Journey
Trading in financial markets can be one of the most rewarding yet humbling pursuits one can embark on. Beginners often enter the arena with dreams of quick riches and freedom, but they soon discover that trading is a brutal teacher. Before you "get the knack of it," trading will break your back—financially, emotionally, and psychologically.
Here’s why that happens, and how you can turn the pain into progress:
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The Painful Reality of Trading
1. Emotional Turmoil
Trading is more than analyzing charts or following strategies. It’s a test of your emotional resilience. The markets are unpredictable, and every trader faces losses. Fear, greed, and frustration often overpower logic, leading to impulsive decisions and repeated mistakes.
2. Financial Losses
Even the most experienced traders lose money. For beginners, losses can be especially devastating because they often lack risk management skills. The pain of watching your hard-earned capital disappear is a reality every trader must face.
3. Overconfidence and Humility
Success in early trades can foster overconfidence, which leads to riskier behavior and eventually to significant losses. Markets have a way of humbling even the most confident traders, forcing them to rethink their approach.
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Why Persistence is Key
The difference between successful traders and those who quit lies in how they respond to setbacks. Every loss is a lesson, and every mistake offers an opportunity to refine your strategy.
1. Building Resilience
Trading is a long-term game. Emotional resilience comes from understanding that losses are part of the process. Developing a mindset focused on improvement, rather than perfection, is crucial.
2. Learning Through Failure
Each failure teaches a valuable lesson. Perhaps you risked too much on a single trade or ignored a key indicator. Analyze every loss with a critical eye and adjust your strategy accordingly.
3. The Power of Discipline
Successful trading requires discipline—following your strategy, managing risk, and knowing when to exit a trade. This discipline doesn’t come naturally; it’s forged through repeated experiences, both good and bad.
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Tips to "Get the Knack of It"
1. Start Small
Begin with small positions to minimize risk. This allows you to learn without the pressure of significant financial losses.
2. Focus on Education
Study the markets, technical analysis, and trading psychology. Books, courses, and mentorship can accelerate your learning curve.
3. Keep a Trading Journal
Document every trade—why you entered, your strategy, and the outcome. Reviewing this journal helps you identify patterns in your behaviour and performance.
4. Develop a Risk Management Plan
Never risk more than you can afford to lose. Use stop-loss orders and position sizing to protect your capital.
5. Practice Patience
The markets are always there. Avoid the temptation to chase trades. Wait for setups that align with your strategy.
Conclusion
Trading will break you before it makes you. The journey is riddled with failures, but each one brings you closer to mastery. By embracing the process, learning from mistakes, and maintaining discipline, you can transform setbacks into stepping stones.
Remember, trading is not about winning every trade; it’s about being consistent over the long term. Success comes to those who endure the grind, adapt to challenges, and persist despite the pain
Gann
The 45 Degree Line: A Very Effective Tool in Trading.The 45 Degree Line: A Very Effective Tool in Trading.
When the ppix of an asset explodes and forms a very steep slope, the 45 degree line, also known as the 1x1 Gannangle, is an important and very useful tool in technical analysis, used to identify and predict market corrections.
Meaning of the 45 degree line:
The 45 degree line represents an equilibrium trend in technical analysis. It is considered an average support or resistance line, indicating a balance between time and price. This line is particularly important because it suggests a constant and balanced progression of the market.
Main characteristics
-Angle: The 45 degree line forms an angle of 45° with the horizontal axis of the chart.
-Notation: It is often noted 1x1, which means that it represents a movement of one unit of price for one unit of time.
-Interpretation: A trend following this angle is generally considered strong and likely to continue in the same direction.
Use in Technical Analysis
Traders use the 45-degree line in several ways:
-Identifying trend strength: A trend that follows or exceeds the 45-degree angle is considered strong.
-Support and resistance: The line can act as a dynamic level of support in an uptrend or resistance in a downtrend.
-Forecasting movements: Traders can anticipate trend changes when price deviates significantly from the 45-degree line.
-Multi-timeframe analysis: The line can be applied on different time frames, from short-term to long-term, for a more comprehensive analysis.
Integration with other tools
The 45-degree line is often used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools for a more robust analysis. It can be combined with indicators, chart patterns, or other Gannangles to confirm trading signals and improve forecast accuracy.
In conclusion, the 45-degree line is a powerful but often underestimated tool in technical analysis. Its simplicity and versatility make it a valuable tool for traders looking to identify and follow market trends with precision.
Gann Solar Dates in ActionThrough his methodologies, WD Gann made a noteworthy discovery known as the Solar Cycles, revealing specific days when the stock market's trends shift. Gann's meticulous research led him to conclude that these pivotal days corresponded to instances when the sun was positioned at either a 15-degree or 90-degree angle relative to Earth. He held these solar positions in utmost significance, believing that they heralded market shifts. An examination of Gann's studies and theories reveals the precision of his dates down to the minute, albeit with occasional discrepancies of one or two days.
This all revolves around Gann's exhaustive research efforts, which culminated in the development of the Gann Study, a complex endeavour.
Gann identified critical turning points in financial markets using geometric divisions, pinpointing days such as those positioned at 45, 90, 135, 180, 225, 270, and 315 solar degrees from the Vernal Equinox.
Furthermore, he provided an overview of Gann's seasonal dates:
When utilizing the Gann Seasonal Dates tool, one can readily discern the Major and Minor dates that W.D. Gann closely monitored to predict trend reversals. Of particular significance are the solstices and equinoxes:
- March 21st
- June 22nd
- September 23rd
- December 22nd
Meanwhile, Minor seasonal dates fall precisely midway between the major seasonal dates and include:
- February 4th
- May 6th
- August 8th
- November 7th
Now, let's delve into the concept of solar dates:
Gann categorizes solar dates into two types: Static and Dynamic Solar dates. He emphasised that the year's commencement is not on January 1st but on March 21st(Sun in Aries), marking a moment of great significance.
How to Calculate Static Days?
1. The average number of days in a year is 365.256.
2. Divide it by 360.
3. The result is 1.0146, meaning one degree corresponds to 1.0146 days.
4. Static degrees include 30, 45, 60, 72, 90, 120, 135, 150, 180, 210, 225, 240, 252, 270, 288, 300, 315, 330, and 360 degrees. These degrees indicate when the market is most likely to experience significant shifts.
5. With knowledge of the days in a month, you can divide that number by 1.0146 to determine the date. For example, multiplying 30 by 1.0146 yields 30.438, which corresponds to March 21st plus one degree, resulting in April 20th.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)The US Dollar Index (also known as DXY or USDX) measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of foreign currencies. Therefore, it provides us with an insight into whether the dollar is strengthening or weakening compared to other major currencies.
This index has a positive correlation with currency pairs where the dollar is the base currency. Conversely, there is an inverse correlation.
The DXY or USDX measures the exchange rate of the US dollar against 6 currencies. The currency with the most weight in its composition is the euro.
It is a key indicator in analyzing the value of the dollar to determine its trend. Additionally, it can be used to study the global macroeconomic situation, as well as to gauge the level of economic and financial uncertainty at a particular moment. (🇮🇳)
Candlestick pattern: Confirmed HammerA Hammer candlestick is a single-candle reversal pattern that indicates a potential change in the trend direction.
These candles are typically characterized by a high or low that is significantly distant from the closing price, with the shadow being at least twice the size of the body.
Like any candlestick pattern or analysis tool, its reliability increases with the presence of more confluences or signals. Therefore, in this case, we choose to trade this pattern when the confirmation criteria are met. However, in practice, there may be other factors to consider that could influence the decision to enter or not enter a trade.
Additionally, there is another type of confirmation for this pattern. The most secure confirmation (but with less projection) would be to wait for the candle following the Hammer to close above it (in the case of a reversal to the upside). This would indicate that the rejection of continuing the current trend is genuine and that a change in direction is more likely.
Relation between Gann Angle, Gann Price and Time “ if you stick strictly to the rule, and always watch when price is squared by time, or when time and price come together, you will be able to forecast the important changes in trend with greater accuracy”. - Gann
I was preparing a presentation in Gann Square of 9 and while looking into the details of Gann Angles, I had a severe headache.
Gann's cryptic approach to sharing his methods created a sense of exclusivity and mystique, attracting a cult following of traders who sought to unravel the secrets behind his success. This allure stemmed from the belief that Gann possessed unique insights into the markets that were inaccessible to the average trader.
Then I re-read the line, examining it thoroughly, just as I used to do when solving the challenging problems of Irodov. The concept is straightforward, so I am creating a chart to guide fellow explorers on this journey.
What is Fib Speed Resistance Fan? How to use it?A Fibonacci fan is a technical analysis charting technique that uses the Fibonacci ratio to predict support and resistance levels graphically.
The Fibonacci ratio can be used to describe proportions in everything from nature's smallest building blocks, such as atoms, to the universe's most advanced patterns, such as unimaginably large celestial bodies. Nature relies on this innate proportion to maintain balance, but the financial markets appear to follow suit.
Traders can use the Fibonacci fan lines to predict key points of resistance or support where price trends may reverse. Once a trader has identified patterns in a chart, he or she can use those patterns to forecast future price movements as well as future levels of support and resistance. The predictions are used by traders to time their trades.
For both the price and time axes of charts, technical analyses based on Fibonacci ratios are available. Retracements can also be used by analysts to generate arcs or fans on arithmetic or logarithmic scales. Nobody seems to know whether these tools work because stock markets follow a natural pattern or because many investors use Fibonacci ratios to predict price movements, causing them to self-fulfill. In any case, key support and resistance levels at 61.8 percent tend to occur frequently on both uptrends and downtrends.
Simply find the proportion of one number in the series to its neighbors to derive the three key ratios commonly used in technical analysis based on the Fibonacci series. Adjacent numbers produce the inverse of phi, or 0.618, corresponding to a 61.8 percent retracement level. Numbers two positions apart in the sequence produce a ratio of 38.2 percent, while numbers three positions apart produce a ratio of 23.6 percent.
Resistance to Speed Fan lines can also be used to represent support or resistance lines. Price frequently remains above the higher speed line during an upswing. When this line is breached, prices often fall to the lower speed line, which often becomes the support level. If prices fall below the higher speed line, then climb to the lower speed line, the lower speed line becomes the resistance level. Breaking a lower speedline in a downtrend suggests a likely rise or rally to a higher speedline. If the line is broken above, the rally may continue to the top of the previous trend (or the underlying trend line).
What happene before break of any levelIf the price test and level many times it is more probability that it will break
You can also see for build up or tight consolidation range before any BREAKOUT
Price move from low volatile to high
Whenever price break with strong candle it is more probality that price will retest the key level
Keep learning and earning
NIFTY | Gann Master 12 Chart Case StudyGann Master 12 Chart
Gann Master 12 Chart (or Square of 12 Chart) is a time forecasting technique discovered by W. D. Gann which works amazingly well in describing longer time cycles. The chart appears as a two dimensional matrix containing 12 rows and 12 columns. Numbers in the chart usually denote time in Years. The matrix is constructed beginning with number 1 in the bottom left corner cell. It progresses in bottom up fashion from 2 to 12 in the first column. Second column starts with the number 13 in the bottom and moves up till 24. All the remaining columns of the matrix are constructed in similar fashion, finally placing number 144 (which is square of 12) in the top right corner cell of the matrix.
Years in the top (i.e. first) row represents top formation years whereas years in the middle (i.e. seventh) row represents bottom formation years.
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
12 ------ 24 ------ 36 ------ 48 ------ 60 ------ 72 ------ 84 ------ 96 ------ 108 ------ 120 ------ 132 ------ 144 (First Row : Top Formation Years)
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
11 ------ 23 ------ 35 ------ 47 ------ 59 ------ 71 ------ 83 ------ 95 ------ 107 ------ 119 ------ 131 ------ 143
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
10 ------ 22 ------ 34 ------ 46 ------ 58 ------ 70 ------ 82 ------ 94 ------ 106 ------ 118 ------ 130 ------ 142
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
9 -------- 21 ------ 33 ------ 45 ------ 57 ------ 69 ------ 81 ------ 93 ------ 105 ------ 117 ------ 129 ------ 141
------ -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
8 -------- 20 ------ 32 ------ 44 ------ 56 ------ 68 ------ 80 ------ 92 ------ 104 ------ 116 ------ 128 ------ 140
------ -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
7 -------- 19 ------ 31 ------ 43 ------ 55 ------ 67 ------ 79 ------ 91 ------ 103 ------ 115 ------ 127 ------ 139
------ -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
6 -------- 18 ------ 30 ------ 42 ------ 54 ------ 66 ------ 78 ------ 90 ------ 102 ------ 114 ------ 126 ------ 138 (Seventh Row : Bottom Formation Years)
------ -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
5 -------- 17 ------ 29 ------ 41 ------ 53 ------ 65 ------ 77 ------ 89 ------ 101 ------ 113 ------ 125 ------ 137
------ -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
4 -------- 16 ------ 28 ------ 40 ------ 52 ------ 64 ------ 76 ------ 88 ------ 100 ------ 112 ------ 124 ------ 136
------ -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
3 -------- 15 ------ 27 ------ 39 ------ 51 ------ 63 ------ 75 ------ 87 ------ 99 -------- 111 ------ 123 ------ 135
------ -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ -------- ------
2 -------- 14 ------ 26 ------ 38 ------ 50 ------ 62 ------ 74 ------ 86 ------ 98 -------- 110 ------ 122 ------ 134
------ -------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ -------- ------
1 -------- 13 ------ 25 ------ 37 ------ 49 ------ 61 ------ 73 ------ 85 ------ 97 -------- 109 ------ 121 ------ 133 (Last Row : Crash !)
Vibration number of the top formation years follow a definite sequence : 3-6-9-3-6-9-3-6-9-3-6-9
12 -> 1 + 2 = 3
24 -> 2 + 4 = 6
36 -> 3 + 6 = 9
48 -> 4 + 8 = 12 -> 1 + 2 = 3
60 -> 6 + 0 = 6
72 -> 7 + 2 = 9
84 -> 8 + 4 = 12 -> 1 + 2 = 3
and so on.
Similarly, the bottom formation years follow a specific sequence of vibration numbers : 6-9-3-6-9-3-6-9-3-6-9-3
If you notice carefully, 3-6-9-3-6-9-3-6-9-3-6-9 is a vibration sequence of 30º-60º-90º-120º-150º-180º-210º-240º-270º-300º-330º-360º angles round the circle.
Another important sequence of years in the chart is 9-18-27-36-45-54-63-72-81-90-99-108-117-126-135-144 (i.e. series of 9) wherein vibration number for each one of them is 9.
Gann Master 12 Chart for NIFTY 50
The Master 12 Chart for NIFTY 50 has been constructed beginning 1996 in the bottom left corner cell ranging up to year 2139 in the top right corner of the chart.
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
2007 ------ 2019 ------ 2031 ------ 2043 ------ 2055 ------ 2067 ------ 2079 ------ 2091 ------ 2103 ------ 2115 ------ 2127 ------ 2139
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
2006 ------ 2018 ------ 2030 ------ 2042 ------ 2054 ------ 2066 ------ 2078 ------ 2090 ------ 2102 ------ 2114 ------ 2126 ------ 2138
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
2005 ------ 2017 ------ 2029 ------ 2041 ------ 2053 ------ 2065 ------ 2077 ------ 2089 ------ 2101 ------ 2113 ------ 2125 ------ 2137
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
2004 ------ 2016 ------ 2028 ------ 2040 ------ 2052 ------ 2064 ------ 2076 ------ 2088 ------ 2100 ------ 2112 ------ 2124 ------ 2136
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
2003 ------ 2015 ------ 2027 ------ 2039 ------ 2051 ------ 2063 ------ 2075 ------ 2087 ------ 2099 ------ 2111 ------ 2123 ------ 2135
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
2002 ------ 2014 ------ 2026 ------ 2038 ------ 2050 ------ 2062 ------ 2074 ------ 2086 ------ 2098 ------ 2110 ------ 2122 ------ 2134
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
2001 ------ 2013 ------ 2025 ------ 2037 ------ 2049 ------ 2061 ------ 2073 ------ 2085 ------ 2097 ------ 2109 ------ 2121 ------ 2133
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
2000 ------ 2012 ------ 2024 ------ 2036 ------ 2048 ------ 2060 ------ 2072 ------ 2084 ------ 2096 ------ 2108 ------ 2120 ------ 2132
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
1999 ------ 2011 ------ 2023 ------ 2035 ------ 2047 ------ 2059 ------ 2071 ------ 2083 ------ 2095 ------ 2107 ------ 2119 ------ 2131
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
1998 ------ 2010 ------ 2022 ------ 2034 ------ 2046 ------ 2058 ------ 2070 ------ 2082 ------ 2094 ------ 2106 ------ 2118 ------ 2130
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
1997 ------ 2009 ------ 2021 ------ 2033 ------ 2045 ------ 2057 ------ 2069 ------ 2081 ------ 2093 ------ 2105 ------ 2117 ------ 2129
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
1996 ------ 2008 ------ 2020 ------ 2032 ------ 2044 ------ 2056 ------ 2068 ------ 2080 ------ 2092 ------ 2104 ------ 2116 ------ 2128
------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Years in the first row are Top formation years; years in the middle row (i.e. seventh row) are bottom formation years and years in the last row are crash years. Is It True ?
NIFTY 50 index was launched in 1996 (bottom left corner cell).
Formed an intermediate bottom in November 1998 around 800 level. From this level, NIFTY rallied more than 100% within 18 months and formed a top around 1800 level. Please note that, the year 1998 (1998 -> 1 + 9 + 9 + 8 = 27 -> 2 + 7 = 9) has vibration number 9.
NIFTY formed bottom around 850 in September 2001. Year 2001 is a bottom formation year according to the Master 12 Chart.
NIFTY formed top around 6300 in December 2007. Year 2007 is a top formation year according to the Master 12 Chart. Also, it was a vibration number 9 year (2007 -> 2 + 0 + 0 + 7 = 9).
The Great Crash of 2008 happened. NIFTY crashed nearly 60% from its 2007 top forming bottom around 2500 level.
NIFTY traded between 2500 and 6300 levels till mid 2013.
Bullish wave started forming bottom around the 5200 level in August 2013. Year 2013 is a bottom formation year according to the Master 12 Chart.
Formed an intermediate bottom in February 2016 around 6825 level. From this level, NIFTY unanimously rallied nearly 75% within 36 months to reach 12300 level. Interestingly, the year 2016 (2016 -> 2 + 0 + 1 + 6 = 9) too has vibration number 9.
Covid Crash of Year 2020 happened. NIFTY crashed 40% to form the bottom around 7500 level. NIFTY bounced back nearly 100% from Covid low within a year's time. Currently trading in the ATH zone of 15000.
Conclusions
In summary, NIFTY formed bottom in the year 2001, topped out in 2007, crashed in 2008, bull run started forming bottom in 2013, topped out in 2019, crashed in 2020. Period.
As per the Master 12 chart, NIFTY may remain in revival phase till the year 2024.
Year 2025 could be the beginning of a bull market. As per the Master 12 chart, 2025 is a bottom formation year and is a vibration 9 year too (2025 -> 2 + 0 + 2 + 5 = 9).
Year 2031 could be the end of the bull market and the cycle repeats.
Reference:
Original article was published on 12-Sep-2019 as a private blog.
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