Gapup
The Exhaustion Candle
What is exhaustion?
The exhaustion is a stage at which buyers are tired out(in an uptrend), either because the price made a new all time high too fast with a huge gap (where the valuations are unacceptable for the buyers) or the price ran too fast into a resistance zone where the buyers do not want to buy because of supply risk at the resistance.
Normally both these cases are associated with huge volume spikes, which means big traders have been changing hands at those levels.
The stage 1 for exhaustion day is a spike higher.
Most of the time there will be a noticeable wick at the top of the exhaustion day candle. That is due to (intraday) short covering, especially when the preceding day was a red day. Lot of traders would have shorted the stock the previous day and left with no option than to 'cover their short positions', seeing a huge gap up and huge loss in their PnL, resulting quick spike in the price.
Example, when Dr.Reddy closes at 2443 on 20th Nov. (a huge red day) and opens at 2608 on 21st Nov., everyone who shorted on 20th covered right in the opening due to 165 pts loss.
The Stage 2 for exhaustion day is supply
Normally the exhaustion is followed by either a consolidation or a pullback. Sellers get active in to the resistance zone due to price history and want to push the price lower. Their tendencies are to fill the gap created during the exhaustion. Their first few attempts would definitely make them money because of diminished demand after the exhaustion day. This creates a wick at the top of the exhaustion candle.
Where the negativity ends?
The above discussion reflects bearish sentiments associated with the exhaustion candles. One of the following scenarios may follow this day.
If the price made a new all time high in the exhaustion day, it will take some time before the stock regains demand. May be at gap fill or at some standard moving average.
On the other hand, if the stock has jumped into the resistance on the exhaustion day, the risk will diminish above the supply zone OR alternately this may be the beginning of a new down leg if the stock was in a long term downtrend. So always keep the long term trend and S/R in to account before trading even on micro time frames.
Although this explanation was brief yet it would have added into the knowledge of some of my fellow traders.
See you with new ideas and knowledge. Just keep liking, commenting and sharing.
Regards
Bravetotrade
!!NIFTY POSITIVE BUILT-UP!!-The index managed to sustain the gap-up which we saw and the result was we have a break-out of the flag pattern which i have already explained in the previous educational chart
-Now looking at the indicators 1)RSI ITSELF HAS SHOWN BREAKOUT OUT OF THE FLAG PATTERN
2)MACD HAS SHOWN POSITIVE CROSS-OVER
3)ADX HAS SHOWN POSITIVE CROSSOVER
- There can now be two outcomes that:-
1)The index will close the gap-up distance and trade on the negative side and will confirmation whether its a flag or a descending channel.(highly unlikely)
2)The index will manage to show another strong gap-up which will shown further strength the index will lead to higher levels and will give confirmation of flag pattern.
(most expected due to gujarat election result)
NOTE:-
DUE TO HOLIDAY SEASON THE INDEX MIGHT SEE SUBDUED MOVEMENT DURING THE LAST TWO WEEKS ANYWAY IF THE ABOVE THING TAKE PLACE WE WILL SEE HIGHER LEVELS IN THE COMING MONTH.
Nifty Gap Theory Study/ObservationThis whole month what I've observed is that Nifty always fills the *opening gap ups/downs* usually the same day or the next day.
Could be useful for next such move by nifty.
As they say, history tends to repeat itself.
Please do you own analysis before taking any trading decisions.
Nifty : Why Nifty Why & Do We Cry ?!Nope, definitely we are not crying for those missed opportunities. This can be classic lesson for all of Us, we knew Nifty will reach 9900's zone earlier itself but what happened from Monday ? We never got valid setup for Entry though we are absolutely right on direction.
Monday - Technical Glitch & 100 points Up
Tuesday - Bit of range then closed near pullback zone ( We can't carry risk overnight, that too when NSE itself unstable)
Wednesday - Ranged in the channel, stayed within ( Only Intraday scalping )
Thursday - Gap Up
Though we knew direction, we had trade setups in place, this happens in market, It's part of Game. Few will feel, Why Nifty did this to Me ?? I missed 200 points profit bcos of this Markets craziness, NO, Markets for everyone, not against you. Markets will be here forever, so we will get some other chance Next day or later, its not that Nifty will perish after reaching 10k & will be stand still at 10k. So Relax & Move on, Bcos thats what I do now :)
HSIL Inverted H&SRSI indicating overbought.
Might come down to retest, thus giving us an opportunity to buy at a lower price.
Keep watching.
First target around 409, then 424, 437 etc. according to pattern it is 93 points higher which likely complete the rounding bottom pattern on a weekly chart of the stock. Keep close look for big gains.
Nifty : Get Ready for Extended Scalpings !I think we need 3-day weekends, Damn ! it feels so good n fresh & energetic after 3 Days :)
In Nifty we are looking for extended scalping's only - A Gap up open with retest of 9630's zone and move down till 9570's. See this is route map of prediction how Nifty can move for the day & if the expected thing happens based on trade setup we need to take trade, we don't take trade based on our predictions. Trade setup matters most when its aligning with predictions, its well n good for us.
Just a word about 9530's support, Nifty may give a move there just showing it as if its creating breakout to downside but only if 9520-30's broken, I will look for another 50-70 points to downside till 9450's. Regarding most views biased on Short side, well, I respect other trade ideas - It's just that I follow My Plan & it says extended scalping, no trend as of now, but it's around the corner to emerge. It's not about whether we got it right or wrong, its about we followed our rules & plan.
Happy Trading !
NIFTY CONSOLIDATING - QUICK SNAPSHOTThe above posted chart is a preview or quick snap shot of markets movements for past couple of days for retail traders to get some alignment with market and make inform decision by taking following factors in consideration
1. Showed GAP UP
2. Bearish Trending Channel GAP Down
3. Consolidation between 8745 -8690
Now, looking forward for a breakout from either side of the current consoliadtion.
NIFTY GOING TO FILL UP GAP It is been observed that the index is making lower lows and highs, indicating bearishness. It is also to note that the price action is going forward downside to fill up the gap that was created on hourly chart. That shall clear discrepancy and make buyers come back in the game again.
Nifty : What to expect for the Day ?!Hi Guys,
Today we are gonna use simple support resistance for our analysis. When we use support/resistance its always two sided coin, Valid or Invalid (Sup/res) will be those two sides. Now we should consider this blue zone in Nifty (8620's) as resistance. What I expect for the day is Gap up of more than 20-30points bcos Global markets are good especially US markets.
If Gap Up happens,
i) Expect pullback and enter long in Nifty around support zone (8620's) on valid confirmation
ii) After Gapup market right away breaks downwards in 8620 ( look out for short in Nifty)
If there is normal opening in zone, look for trendline breakdown for shorting. Thats really steep trendline which tend to give false breakouts, so be safe.These are just ideas only, keep note of these and check your trade plan before taking any trade.
Happy Trading !
Nifty 50 : Hearti'ley Gartley - Expecting Gap Up !Happy Monday Guys !
With 29 mins to go before Nifty goes live for the day, It will be thinking as " Shall I Gap Up for the day ?? " " What I can do to surprise them ? " . We are getting back to back patterns, we had Bearish Cypher which resulted in fall of Nifty & Bullish Cypher which kicked the price for Gap Up on friday right on Target-1 and Now, we have Beautiful Gartley and bcos of that reason I'm slightly biased towards Gap Up and hitting minimum Target 1. So this Nifty ranging will give Gap Up and reach our targets ? Let's see...
Happy Trading !