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Gbpusdlong

The when, why, and how sterling reaches parityIn just two trading days, the probability that the sterling will fall to parity against the US dollar increased to 60% on Sept. 26 from 32% on Sept. 23 after the UK government's announcement of new tax cuts elevated concerns for the country's economy. Bloomberg estimates that the GBP/USD will have equal value before the end of 2022, based on sterling-dollar implied volatility . The value of the sterling was $1.0350 as of Sept. 26, marking a record low for the currency. Economists believe that the slump in the pound could force UK's central bank to enact another interest rate increase in order to support the currency, The Guardian reported. Capital Economics UK Economist Paul Dales told the paper that the Bank of England could raise interest by 100 basis points or 150 basis points. The weakness in the pound is being exacerbated by fears the UK economy is entering a recession after inflation breached the 10% mark in July, marking a record-high for the country. It elicited a promise from the Bank of England that it will "respond forcefully, as necessary" to curb the growth in the prices of goods and services. The path to parity The downward movement of the sterling follows the UK government's announcement of new tax cuts, fueling the concerns of investors and economists that the four-nation country's debt will reach unaffordable levels and further fuel inflation . It also comes after the Bank of England increased rates by 50 basis points, lower compared with the 75 basis-point hike of the US Federal Reserve . The government intends to finance its tax cuts with debt worth tens of billions in sterling. The UK Debt Management Office is planning to raise an additional 72 billion pounds before next April, raising the financing remit in 2022-2023 to 234 billion pounds. Deutsche Bank UK Economist Sanjay Raja said the tax cuts were adding to medium-term inflationary pressures and were "raising the risk of a near-term balance of payment crisis." Vasileios Gkionakis, a Citi analyst, echoed sentiments that the move will bring the sterling to parity with the US dollar , noting that "the UK will find it increasingly difficult to finance this deficit amidst such a deteriorating economic backdrop; something has to give, and that something will eventually be a much lower exchange rate." "Sterling is in the firing line as traders are turning their backs on all things British," said David Madden, a market analyst at Equiti Capital. "There is a creeping feeling the extra government borrowing that is in the pipeline will severely weigh on the UK economy." If it comes to pass, what then? The implications of the sterling being at parity with the US dollar boil down to how and where the money is being spent. When the euro was at parity with the dollar, there were winners and losers and the same could be expected if ever the sterling is at the same value as the dollar. For trading and exporters, the change in the exchange rate will surely be noticeable. In the US, a stronger dollar would mean lower prices on imported goods, which could help cool down inflation . The opposite could be anticipated for the UK as previous payments would afford lesser products if the two currencies are at parity. Accordingly, US companies doing business in the UK will see revenue from those businesses shrink if they bring back earnings in pounds to the US. However, if pound earnings are used in the UK, the exchange rate becomes less of an issue.
by BlackBull_Markets
The GBP in the reign of King CharlesThe death of Queen Elizabeth II on Sept. 8 beaconed a new era for the UK, coming on the heels of Elizabeth Truss taking office as prime minister and heralding the proclamation of King Charles as the new monarch . These changes could be overwhelming for a country that has known only one monarch for 70 years. Even more daunting is that these changes happened amid economic uncertainties, the energy problems affecting Europe and before full recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic has been truly achieved. The British pound was modestly lower compared with other major currencies a day after the Queen's passing. However, the sterling had been relatively week even after the Truss was named prime minister. On Sept. 7, it dropped to a 37-year low of $1.1469. However, the pound has found some buyers since the seventh, bouncing from this low and climbing back to its last consolidation zone just above 1.7000. This is perhaps an odd bout of bullishness in the lead up to the release of the UK’s August inflation data due on Wednesday. Days before the Queen's death, Goldman Sachs warned that the UK could fall into recession in the fourth quarter of 2022, echoing earlier forecasts from Bank of England. Considering these bearish sentiments, all eyes are on how Truss and the new King will navigate the country of four nations through these murky economic waters . Long lived the queen Queen Elizabeth was 96 years old when she died. She was the UK's longest-reigning monarch and lived through the aftermath of WWII, the winding down of Britain’s vast empire, the 2016 Brexit vote and a global pandemic, among other major events. Following her death, her eldest son Charles takes the throne and the crown amid ongoing criticisms that the monarchy is outdated and absorbing public finances, CNBC reported. Considering the country's current financial situation, it is not too far off to assume that these disapprovals will only intensify. King Charles is already one of the richest people in the world. Being the monarch , he will also be responsible to the Crown Estate, which comprises 15.6 billion pounds ($18.25 billion) of property, according to Financial Times senior business writer, Andrew Hill . While the Royal Family may not have a direct hand at UK's financial policies, it falls on the new King the responsibility to rally public sentiment, especially during a period of crisis. Andrew Roberts, a historian and professor at King's College London, was cited by CNBC as saying that the new monarch intends to "slim down the Royal Family" to show solidarity with the rest of the country during a "massive cost-of-living crisis." Trusting Liz Truss Amid the troubling times in the UK, perhaps harder work is demanded more from new Prime Minister Truss than any other person in the country. In her last public engagement, the Queen met with Truss two days before her death to ask the latter to form a new government. Truss immediately jumped into action, unveiling a 40 billion-pound energy support package for homes and businesses in the UK amid soaring electricity and gas prices, exacerbated by the reduction of supply from Russia after it faced sanctions over its military action against Ukraine. The plan includes a 2,500 pound cap on household energy bills for 2023. Truss took office also after the annual inflation rate in the UK reached 10.1% in July, marking a record high since February 1982 and a peak among G-7 nations. Her election victory also comes on the back on the biggest rate hike in the country in 27 years, which is also expected to further grow once the Bank of England resumes its monetary meeting following a period of mourning for the Queen. Earlier unveiled economic plans for the Truss government also includes an emergency budget targeted at reversing the recent increase in national insurance contributions, as well as the removal of the corporation tax hike scheduled for April 2023.
by BlackBull_Markets
GBPUSD: Ending DiagonalTheory: DIAGONAL: Diagonal are the motive waves like an impulse wave, but diagonals are different from impulse wave in that they do follow the first two Sutras (rules of impulse wave) for wave analysis, but it does not follow the third one i.e. Wave 4 should not intervene the territory of the wave 1. In a diagonal wave 4 always enters into the price territory of the wave 1. Properties Of Diagonals: Diagonals can be contracting or expanding type being expanding diagonal a rare one. In contracting type, wave 3 is shorter than wave 1, wave 5 is shorter than wave 3, and wave 4 is shorter than wave 2. In expanding type, wave 3 is longer than wave 1, wave 5 is longer than wave 3, and wave 4 is longer than wave 2. Types Of Diagonals: LEADING DIAGONAL ENDING DIAGONAL LEADING DIAGONAL: In a leading diagonal , waves 1,3, and 5 are all impulsive in nature or all in corrective form of zigzags. Wave 2 and wave 4 are always present in a zigzag form. A leading diagonal suggests the starting of a new wave & that is why it can develop wave 1 of a impulse wave and a first wave of a zigzag pattern. ENDING DIAGONAL : This is the most common diagonal that can be found out at the ending of a main trend or main correction. It consists of all the waves 1-2-3-4-5 in a single or multiple zigzags. They can be found placed at 5th wave of an impulse wave or can been seen as a wave ‘C’ of a corrective waves zigzags or flat. After the termination of the diagonal , a swift & a sharp reversal takes place which bring the prices back to the level from where the diagonal has began. (generally it retrace back to the wave-2 of the diagonal structure) TRADING STRATEGY: Buy GBPUSD with SL of 1.1590 and look for the upside target of 1.1760 and 1.1800
Long
by TradingSutra
GBP/USD FX:GBPUSD Hi Everyone Sorry for absence for so long. Actually i was busy in forex trading and working on something so it took some time in doing experimenting. But will make some time on daily basis and try to help you as much as i can with my charts. This is an chart of British pound/ US Dollar. As you can see GBP/USD is falling for sometime now or you can say its almost an complete year. I will say this has complete its wave 1 and currently price is in wave 2. So you can expect some range bound in it or bounce back in form of correction for 2...3 months. It will form an ABC structure as per our Long Term Degree and currently we are in wave-LC1. Lets see what happen. See the below chart to understand how our degree cycles work.
Long
by Neowave-forecast
GBPUSD ANALYSIS ON H4 CHART.Overall, GBP/USD is ranging across. Recently, GBP/USD bounced up from the key level of 1.35. The UK employment data released yesterday indicated continued decline in the number of people claiming for unemployment benefits in February. Meanwhile, average earnings rose while unemployment rate remained unchanged. Average Earnings Index 3m/y (Actual: 4.3%, Forecast: 3.8%, Previous: 4.2%) Claimant Count Change (Actual: -31.9K, Forecast: -36.2K, Previous: -43.3K) Unemployment Rate (Actual: 4.1%Forecast: 4.1%, Previous: 4.1%) The UK CPI y/y data (Forecast: 5.4%, Previous: 5.4%) will be released later at 1500 (GMT+8). GBP/USD’s next support zone is at 1.33800 and the next resistance zone is at 1.36000. Look for short-term buying opportunities of GBP/USD.
Long
by charliedavies770