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EURUSD: Focus on 13-month-old support and EU/US GDPEURUSD retreats towards a key support level as traders prepare for Wednesday's Eurozone and US Q3 GDP reports. Despite this, the pair maintains a mid-October breakdown below the 200-SMA, while oscillators challenge continued bearish momentum. Bulls and bears jostle at key support While EURUSD sellers benefit from the drop below the 200-SMA and a stronger US Dollar, an upward trend line from October 2023, along with an oversold RSI and a potential bull cross on the MACD, may limit further declines of the major currency pair. Key technical levels The 13-month rising support line near 1.0770 is crucial for EURUSD sellers if the pair drops further. Below that, the monthly low of 1.0760 is an important level, with June and April lows around 1.0665 and 1.0600 as potential targets. For EURUSD buyers, recovery seems challenging without breaking the 200-SMA at 1.0870. Even if they succeed, the 1.1000-1.0980 zone, marked since January, poses a tough challenge. If the Euro bulls cross the 1.1000 hurdle, they’ll set their sights on the 78.6% Fibonacci Extension (FE) of the pair’s late 2023 fall and a 10-month-old rising trend line, close to 1.1100 and 1.1220 in that order. Further downside needs a strong catalyst With mixed oscillator signals, EURUSD sellers need robust data to support US Dollar strength and Euro weakness to push prices lower. A corrective bounce seems likely, potentially creating fresh selling opportunities if Eurozone data surprises positively.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY eyes another bear run, focus on Japan GDP, US inflationEarly Monday, the USDJPY has risen slightly above 147.00 after its first weekly gain in six weeks. This increase follows a rebound from a seven-month low. The rise is supported by a recovery in the RSI and positive signals from the MACD. However, the pair’s failure to defend a week-long bullish trend channel and its continued trading below the 50-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) still keeps bears hopeful. Additionally, a downward trend line from early July suggests that sellers still control the market. The USDJPY is likely to stay under pressure unless it can rise above a resistance line near 150.80. Currently, the 50-EMA and the lower end of the rising channel, around 147.85-90, are key levels to watch. The 150.00 level may offer additional resistance, and if the pair can surpass 150.80, it might target around 155.50. On the downside, immediate support levels to watch are 145.50 and 143.30. If the price falls further, the monthly low near 141.70 and the psychological level of 140.00 could come into play. If the USDJPY drops below 140.00, it might test the mid-2023 low around 137.25. While technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook for USDJPY, traders should be cautious due to upcoming economic data releases, including Japan’s Q2 GDP and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI).
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bears keep reins with eyes on US GDP, ECB’s LagardeEURUSD licks its wounds at the lowest level in a fortnight as sellers jostle with a 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) support ahead of the US Q2 GDP and a speech from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde. In doing so, the Euro pair justifies the early-week breakdown of a month-old rising support line, now immediate resistance near 1.0900. However, downbeat RSI conditions and a looming bull cross on the MACD hint at the quote’s corrective bounce off the stated EMA support of 1.0825. In a case where the Euro prices remain weak past 1.0825, the 1.0800 threshold and 61.8% Fibonacci ratio of April-July upside, near 1.0735, followed by the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.0675, will be important to watch for the bears ahead of targeting the yearly low marked in April surrounding 1.0600. Alternatively, downbeat US statistics could join the hawkish comments from ECB’s Lagarde to underpin the EURUSD pair’s rebound from the key EMA support of 1.0825. The same line highlights the support-turned-resistance line stretched from late June, near the 1.0900 threshold at the latest. It’s worth noting, however, that the Euro buyer’s ability to keep the reins past 1.0900 depends on a clear upside break of an upward-sloping resistance line stretched from early April, around 1.0950 as we write. Following that, the bulls can easily challenge the 1.1000 psychological magnet. Overall, EURUSD prices are likely to remain weak unless crossing 1.0950. However, the downside room appears limited and may lack momentum due to the scheduled data/events.
by MTradingGlobal
Rising wedge confirmation, PBOC rate cut lure AUDUSD bearsAUDUSD drops to a three-week low early Monday while printing a six-day losing streak as the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise rate cut. The Chinese central bank’s action pushed the Aussie pair to confirm a 3.5-month-old rising wedge bearish chart formation. However, the 50-SMA support of 0.6670 challenges the sellers of late. That said, the bearish MACD signals and the rising wedge confirmation tease bears ahead of the US/Australia PMIs for July and the US Q2 GDP, not to forget the US Core PCE Price Index that is also known as the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge. Hence, a daily closing beneath 0.6670 appears necessary to convince the bears to target the 0.6600 threshold. Following that, the 200-SMA support of 0.6581 can test the downside momentum, along with downbeat RSI conditions, before allowing the sellers to aim for 0.6500 and 0.6400, as well as challenge the yearly peak surrounding 0.6360. On the flip side, the AUDUSD pair’s recovery remains elusive unless it stays beneath the aforementioned rising wedge’s lower line, now immediate resistance around the 0.6700 round figure. Following that, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of December 2023 to March 2024 upside, near 0.6765, and the monthly high of 0.6798 could test the buyers. It’s worth observing that the rejection of the bearish chart formation, by a daily closing beyond 0.6815, appears a strong signal for the Aussie bulls to challenge the yearly peak of 0.6839. Overall, AUDUSD appears ready to welcome the bears but a slew of top-tier data/events will be decisive to watch.
by MTradingGlobal
Softer Australia GDP growth, rising wedge lure AUDUSD bearsAUDUSD picks up bids to consolidate the biggest daily loss in a fortnight early Wednesday even as Australia’s Q1 GDP growth softens to 0.1% QoQ and 1.1% YoY respectively versus 0.3% and 1.6% priors in that order. The Aussie growth numbers also slide beneath market forecasts of 0.2% QoQ and 1.2% YoY. However, prices recover from the 100-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA), close to 0.6635 at the latest, while posting mild gains within a two-month-old rising wedge bearish chart formation, currently between 0.6620 and 0.6750. It should be noted that mostly steady RSI conditions and the downbeat MACD signals join the softer Aussie growth to keep sellers hopeful. That said, the bears need validation from the 200-EMA support of 0.6610, in addition to the rising wedge’s bottom line of 0.6620, to retake control. Following that, the pair will be vulnerable to revisit the previous yearly low of 0.6270 while witnessing 0.6460 and the 2024 bottom surrounding 0.6360 as intermediate halts during the run-down to chase a theoretical target of the rising wedge confirmation. Alternatively, the 0.6700 threshold guards the immediate upside of the AUDUSD pair in case of the quote’s further recovery. Should the bulls keep the reins past 0.6700, the yearly high of near 0.6715 and the aforementioned rising wedge’s top line surrounding 0.6750 will challenge the Aussie bulls. In a case where the pair remains firmer past 0.6750, the late 2023 peak around 0.6870 and the 0.7000 psychological magnet will be in the spotlight. Overall, the AUDUSD pair’s latest recovery could be considered a selling opportunity until the quote stays beneath 0.6750.
by MTradingGlobal
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100-SMA tests EURUSD bulls ahead of EU GDP, US CPIEURUSD rises to the highest level in five weeks, up for the third consecutive day, as traders await the second reading of the Eurozone Q1 GDP and the US headline inflation number, namely the Consumer Price Index (CPI). In doing so, the Euro pair justifies the previous day’s successful clearance of the 200-SMA hurdle, backed by the upside RSI (14) line and the bullish MACD signals. However, the 100-SMA and a downward-sloping resistance line from late December 2023, close to 1.0825 and 1.0835 respectively, challenge the pair buyers. Following that, the quote’s gradual run-up toward the highs marked in April and March, around 1.0885 and 1.0985 in that order, can’t be ruled out. It should be observed, however, that a slew of hurdles near the 1.1000 threshold will challenge the pair’s upside past 1.0985, if not then bulls can aim for a late 2023 high of around 1.1140. On the contrary, a convergence of the 200-SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement of the October-December 2023 upside, near 1.0795-90, restricts the short-term downside of the EURUSD pair. Following that, a late April swing high of near 1.0750 and a one-month-old rising support line surrounding 1.0715 will stop the Euro bears from taking control. It’s worth noting that the quote’s sustained weakness past 1.0715 needs validation from the 1.0700 threshold before challenging the yearly low of 1.0600. To sum up, the EURUSD pair is in the uptrend and hence capable of crossing the immediate resistances. However, the surprise element of the US inflation data and little room toward the north require buyers to be cautious.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY pokes key resistance, US inflation, Japan's GDP eyedUSDJPY jostles with a fortnight-old horizontal resistance as buyers turn cautious ahead of this week’s US inflation and the first readings of Japan’s Q1 2024 GDP. In doing so, the Yen pair struggles to extend the previous week’s recovery from the 50-SMA. That said, the near-50 RSI levels join the receding strength of the bearish MACD signals to suggest a continuation of the quote’s latest rebound within the bullish trend channel comprising levels marked since late 2023. It’s worth noting, however, that a clear upside break of the immediate 155.20-156.00 resistance zone becomes necessary for the bulls to retake control. In that case, the upper line of the previously stated bullish channel, close to 159.00 by the press time, will precede the 160.00 psychological magnet and the year 1990’s peak of 160.40 to lure the buyers. Meanwhile, softer US inflation and upbeat Japan growth numbers could trigger the USDJPY pair’s retreat toward the mid-April swing highs around 154.80. However, the 50-SMA and the aforementioned bullish channel’s bottom line, respectively near 152.50 and 152.00, could challenge the Yen pair sellers afterward. In a case where the quote remains bearish past 152.00, the 150.00 threshold will act as the final defense of the buyers. Overall, the USDJPY pair remains bullish, despite the latest inaction, but the upside room remains limited.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD drops toward key support line near 1.0600 on Fed DayEURUSD remains pressured at the lowest level in a week, extending the late April’s retreat from 20-SMA and a six-month-old support-turned-resistance, as traders await the US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy announcements. The Euro pair’s weakness also takes clues from an impending bear cross on the MACD and an absence of oversold RSI conditions. With this, the quote is likely to extend the latest fall toward an ascending support line stretched from early October 2023, close to 1.0610 at the latest. Following that, the yearly low marked in April around 1.0600 and multiple lows registered during late 2023 near 1.0520 and 1.0490 will test the bears before directing them toward the previous yearly low of 1.0448. Alternatively, the US Fed’s inability to inspire the EURUSD bulls, mainly amid the high hopes, could trigger a quick recovery in the pair prices toward the 20-SMA hurdle of 1.0710. However, the quote’s further upside needs validation from the previous support line stretched from early November 2023 surrounding 1.0740. It should be noted that a convergence of the 200-SMA and 50-SMA, near the 1.0800 threshold at the latest, appears a tough nut to crack for the buyers, a clear break of which will enable them to confront the final defense of the sellers, namely a downward-sloping resistance line from December 2023, near 1.0865 as we write. To sum up, the EURUSD is on the way to testing the key support line as market players await the FOMC verdict. However, high hopes from the US central bank and a limited downside room for the pair suggest hardships for the sellers past 1.0600.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold sellers need validation from $2,298 and US GDPGold price portrays a four-day losing streak as market players brace for the first readings of the US first quarter (Q1) 2024 Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In doing so, the XAUUSD justifies the previous day’s downside break of a $2,324 support confluence, now resistance, comprising the 21-SMA and a two-month-old upward-sloping trend line. It’s worth noting that the RSI (14) line’s retreat from the overbought territory joins the bearish MACD signals to add strength to the downside bias. However, a clear downside break of the previous resistance line stretched from early March, around $2,298 by the press time, becomes necessary for the bullion sellers to tighten the grip. Additionally, a strong print of the US Q1 GDP could also convince the precious metal bears to take action. Following that, the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement of the quote’s February-April upside, respectively near $2,262 and $2,208, will be in the spotlight ahead of the 50-SMA support of $2,198. Alternatively, downbeat prints of the US Q1 GDP could trigger the Gold Price recovery that will aim for the $2,324 support-turned-resistance confluence. In a case where the XAUUSD remains firmer past $2,324, the $2,350 and the $2,400 psychological magnets will lure the buyers. However, a fortnight-old descending resistance line surrounding $2,405 will precede the recent swing highs of near $2,418 and $2,432 to challenge the precious metal’s further advances. It’s worth noting that the commodity’s successful trading beyond $2,432 won’t hesitate to flash the $2,400 threshold. Overall, Gold price remains pressured ahead of the key data but the quote’s further downside needs validation.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD rebounds from Golden Fibonacci ratio, “Falling Wedge” eyeGBPUSD bears take a breather after a two-week downtrend as the quote bounces off the lowest level since mid-November 2023. In doing so, the Pound Sterling takes a U-turn from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its run-up from October 2023 to February 2024, also known as the “Golden Fibonacci Ratio”, while justifying the traders’ consolidation ahead of this week’s key UK/US catalysts. That said, the oversold RSI line and a receding bearish bias on the MACD favor the quote’s further rebound, which in turn highlights the monthly falling wedge bullish chart formation. However, the pair’s successful trading beyond 1.2440 becomes necessary to lure the buyers. Even so, a 4.5-month-old previous support line and the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), respectively near 1.2545 and 1.2560, will be the key upside hurdles to test the Cable’s north-run. On the contrary, the aforementioned key Fibonacci retracement support restricts the immediate downside of the GBPUSD pair to around 1.2360. Following that, the stated falling wedge’s bottom line, near 1.2345 at the latest, quickly followed by the October 2023 peak of 1.2337, could act as the final defense of the Pound Sterling buyers before surrendering to the sellers. In that case, the 78.6% Fibonacci ratio surrounding 1.2220 will be in the spotlight before the late 2023 bottoms around 1.2070 and 1.2037. Overall, the GBPUSD pair’s corrective bounce appears overdue but the road toward the north will be long and bumpy.
by MTradingGlobal
05 Apr -Algo trades went from profits to loss in last 30mts -BNBankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ The line we drew yesterday was more or less right. Banknifty respected the trend line and moved ahead when Nifty was trading flat. RBI MPC outcome expectations were not the reason we had the fall yesterday. I can say that with a high level of certainty because today we went past yesterday’s high. And as soon as we cut through that level an additional boost of 300+ points came in via short-covering or long build-up. I guess we discussed a higher-high, higher-low formation last week. I just drew that with the green-colored path lines. Can you spot the HH, HL pattern? All this was possible only after the 47465 resistance was breached. Also, notice how the momentum picked up right after the crossing. The major highlights from the RBI MPC meeting were The Repo rates are unchanged at 6.5% The stance is the withdrawal of accommodation (M3 money supply can be tracked to see if liquidity is getting removed or not) Inflation projected at 4.5% for current FY GDP expected at 7.6% for the current FY – Algo Trading Our algo trades ended today with a loss of Rs3246, things were cruising quite well when BN picked up momentum in the last 30 to 40mts.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by viswaram
GBPUSD sellers need validation from 1.2565 and UK/US GDPGBPUSD prints mild losses around 1.2630 while paring the first weekly gains in three, so far, as traders await Thursday’s final prints of the UK and US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2024. In doing so, the Pound Sterling struggles to defend the previous week’s rebound from the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) amid downbeat RSI (14) line. However, the bearish MACD signals and the Cable pair’s sustained trading beneath the convergence of 50-EMA and previous support line stretched from early February, around 1.2680 at the latest, keep the sellers hopeful. That said, the quote needs to provide a daily closing beneath the 200-EMA level of 1.2565 to confirm the further downside. Following that, the yearly low of 1.2518 and December 2023 bottom surrounding 1.2500 will act as the final defense of the bulls. On the flip side, a daily closing beyond the 1.2680 resistance confluence comprising the 50-EMA and the previous support line could recall the GBPUSD pair buyers. Should the quote remain firmer past 1.2680, the 15-week-old horizontal resistance zone will challenge the bulls around 1.2795-2805. In a case where the Pound Sterling rises beyond 1.2805, the yearly peak of 1.2893 and the 1.3000 psychological magnet will be in the spotlight. Overall, the GBPUSD pair remains bearish ahead of the key UK/US GDP data but the downside room appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY probes four-day losing streak despite upbeat Japan GDPUSDJPY seesaws at the lowest level in five weeks as bulls and bears jostle after the biggest weekly loss in eight months. In doing so, the Yen pair fails to justify better-than-previous Japanese GDP while challenging the four-day losing streak. That said, the oversold RSI (14) conditions and the 200-SMA support of near 146.30-25 also challenge the quote’s further downside. Following that, the mid-2023 peak of around 145.00 could act as an intermediate halt before directing the bears toward the late 2023 bottom of 140.25. Meanwhile, the USDJPY pair’s rebound needs validation from the 100-SMA level of 147.60, as well as the support-turned-resistance line stretched from early January, close to 148.80 at the latest. However, the 150.00 threshold and multiple tops surrounding 151.00 could check the Yen pair buyers afterward. Also acting as the upside filter is the previous yearly high of 151.90 and a one-year-old previous support line, now resistance around 152.80. Overall, the USDJPY pair’s sustained trading beneath the key technical supports, now resistances, join the bearish MACD signals to keep sellers hopeful. However, the oversold RSI and nearness to the 200-SMA might challenge the quote’s short-term downside.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD tests falling wedge ahead of Eurozone GDPEURUSD stays pressured within a three-week-old falling wedge bullish chart formation as the pair traders await the first readings of German and the Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q4 2024 early Tuesday. In doing so, the quote fades the previous day’s corrective bounce off the stated pattern’s bottom line while portraying a third consecutive weekly loss so far. It’s worth noting, however, that the recently downbeat RSI and MACD signals suggest weakness in the bearish trend and hence a quick run-up on the upbeat prints of GDP can’t be ruled out. In that case, the previous support line stretched from early November, now resistance around 1.0880, will restrict the immediate upside of the Euro pair. Following that, the falling wedge’s top line surrounding 1.0900 and the 200-SMA level of 1.0935 will be crucial to watch as the final battle points for the bears before giving control to the buyers. Alternatively, the aforementioned wedge’s lower line of around 1.0800 puts a floor under the EURUSD price. Following that, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the November-December upside, near 1.0760, will precede the 78.6% Fibonacci ratio surrounding 1.0650 to act as the last defense of the pair buyers. In a case where the quote remains bearish past 1.0650, the pair’s lows marked in November and October, respectively near 1.0515 and 1.0450, will lure the sellers. To sum up, EURUSD portrays a bullish chart formation ahead of the bloc’s key growth data.
by MTradingGlobal
21st Dec ’23 - Nifty50 Retraces 50% of Yesterday’s FallNifty Today Analysis Recap from yesterday: “The price action on the 63mts TF does not look bearish per se. But notice the weight of the RED candles — we retraced right up to the ascending channel top envelope.” 4mts chart link - click here Nifty started the day on a negative note fell to 20976 and then started recovering. The recovery was so strong and convincing that there was no level of hesitation or indecision in between. When the day ended and the price actions were recorded on the chat - it seemed like the domestic institutions came ready with their chest to pump in new buy orders. From a technical analysis perspective, we cannot hope that dip buyers will step in and do the needful. The best I could do was to draw a Fibonacci retracement level. The final close stands at the exact 50% retracement level. The right setting for a bearish continuation should have been below 21211 ~ 38.2% retracement. The main sector that spoiled the bear’s party today was BankNifty. 63mts chart link - click here Nifty50 takes support right at the ascending channel showing the inability of bears to overpower the bulls. I am inclined to change my stance to neutral with the developments of today. Giving the bears one more opportunity to prove their mettle, hence going with the bearish stance for tomorrow as well. All they have to do is keep Nifty50 below 21200 in the opening 2hrs for the momentum to kick in - that may require a gap down of 50+ points. Seeing how the US markets have reacted to their GDP report (strong green) - the only thing that could put them in RED would be some pointers by FED saying “...no rate cuts in 2024”
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
6th Oct ’23 - RBI meeting status quo - PostMortem BankNiftyBankNifty Analysis I had a bearish view for today, but it played out as a bad day for the bears. The RBI MPC meeting at 10 am did not move the needle that much. Usually, the RBI Governor’s speech drives up the volatility and we have some adverse moves. There was one strong move of 250pt from 10.50 to 11.20 where we pulled back from 44500 levels. Even then the options data did not get excited - and we knew that the fall was not going to last. Rightly so, Banknifty recovered quite decently and ended the day with good gains. Let us look at some points discussed by RBI Governer today - source Keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% Continuing the withdrawal of accommodative stance GDP growth is projected at 6.5% Inflation is projected at 5.4% The US Fed rate is 5.5% and ours is still at 6.5%, keeping the rates lower is not good for a country that needs to attract foreign investments. Although he started talking about the USDINR - that conversation did not last long. If the US decides to hold these rates for a longer tenure - a major chunk of emerging market investors could flee back and invest in dollars. An accommodative stance is usually provided to stimulate growth in the economy. RBI is just withdrawing the accommodation. Its fight is not removing liquidity with full intensity, as it may impact growth. If removing liquidity was a top priority - the stance should have been more hawkish. GDP growth at 6.5% is very good - no comments on this. Inflation at 5.4% is still bad. In his speech, he said he is very particular that inflation returns to the 4% band and then he forecasted the next FY inflation around 5.2%. By Shaving off 0.2% a year - how long will it take to reach back at 4%? He also said about removing liquidity by selling Government Bonds - I am not sure how that will work. Will have to burn my midnight oil to dig deeper into it. I am changing my stance from bearish to neutral as we have managed to break the 44068 resistance. Today’s price action imparts some stability to the current levels. The next levels to watch for will be 44702 if we are going up and 44136 if we are falling.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
EURUSD tests sellers by bouncing off 1.0970 supportEURUSD dropped in the last two consecutive weeks as it fades bounce off a two-month-old rising support line. The recovery previously gained support from the RSI’s rebound from the overbought territory, as well as the looming bull cross on the MACD. However, a convergence of the 50-SMA and a fortnight-long falling resistance line, close to 1.1100-1105 at the latest, restricts the immediate upside. a horizontal area comprising multiple tops marked since July 21, close to 1.1150, also likely to challenge the Euro buyers should they manage to keep the reins past 1.1105. Following that, a run-up towards the yearly top marked during mid-July around 1.1275 can’t be ruled out. On the contrary, fresh selling needs validation from the aforementioned multi-day-old rising support line, close to 1.0970 at the latest. In a case where the EURUSD bears manage to break the 1.0970 support, it can quickly drop to the monthly low of around 1.0835. However, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the May-July upside, near 1.0780, will check the Euro bears afterward, a break of which will direct the price towards May’s low of near 1.0635. Overall, EURUSD signals a corrective bounce but the bullish trend remains elusive unless the quote remains below 50-SMA and immediate trend line confluence, near 1.1100-05.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold buyers still occupy driver’s seat after Fed, eyes on ECB noDespite the Fed-inflicted volatility, the Gold price remains bullish as markets brace for the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting. That said, successful trading beyond the 50-EMA and 200-EMA, respectively near $1,950 and $1,904, keeps the buyers hopeful. Also acting as short-term support is the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s February-May upside, near $1,935. It’s worth noting that the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level adds strength to the $1,904 support while the $1,900 round figure and June’s low of $1,893 are some extra downside filters that can defend the XAUUSD bulls if they’re on the verge of losing the throne. In a case where the quote remains bearish past $1,893, the odds of witnessing a slump toward the early March swing high of around $1,854 and then to February’s bottom of $1,804 can’t be ruled out. Even so, the Gold buyers need to provide a successful upside break of the 10-week-old horizontal resistance area around $1,985 to tighten their grip. That said, the $2,000 psychological magnet and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of around $2,005 may act as additional resistances to test the XAUUSD bulls before directing them to April’s peak of around $2,050. Following that, the yearly high of around $2,067 will regain the market’s attention. Overall, the Gold Price remains on the bull’s radar unless declining below $1,893.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
Gold sellers are ready to break $1,900 but road to the south is Gold stays on the way to post the third consecutive weekly loss even as the one-month-old falling trend line prod XAUUSD sellers around $1,900 of late. Also challenging the quote’s further downside is the nearly oversold RSI (14) line. However, the bullion’s sustained trading beneath the fortnight-long falling trend line and the 200-SMA, respectively near $1,918 and $1,956, joins the bearish MACD signals to keep the sellers hopeful of witnessing further downside. In a case where the quote crosses these hurdles, the monthly top will join the late May’s swing high, around $1,983-85, to act as the last defense of the bears. Meanwhile, the Gold seller’s dominance past the $1,900 round figure will need validation from the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of its June 09-23 moves, near $1,898. Following that, the 78.6% and 100% FE, close to $1,887 and $1,873, should be quick to lure the XAUUSD bears. It’s worth observing that the precious metal’s weakness past $1,873 will have the early March high of $1,856 as an intermediate halt before dragging prices toward the yearly low marked in February around $,804. Overall, Gold price is likely to remain bearish but the south run is less likely to be smooth.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
USDCHF teases bears on Swiss GDP day, rising wedge in focusUSDCHF fades upside momentum, after witnessing a three-week uptrend. With this, the Swiss currency pair portrays a rising wedge bearish chart formation on the four-hour chart. That said, RSI (14) line appears steady near the 50.0 level, suggesting no harm to the latest consolidation in prices. However, the bearish MACD signals suggest that the bears are gradually sneaking in. As a result, the pair bears may seek entry on breaking the stated rising wedge’s bottom line, close to the 0.9000 round figure. Following that, the 200-SMA of around 0.8950 and the yearly bottom of 0.8820 may act as extra filters towards the south before directing the pair to the theoretical target of the rising wedge around 0.8750. On the flip side, USDCHF recovery needs validation from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its late March to early May downturn, close to 0.9070. However, the April 10 peak of 0.9120 may limit the short-term upside of the quote afterward. Should the bulls cross the 0.9120 hurdle, the bearish chart formation gets off the table and can allow the buyers to challenge March’s high of near 0.9440, which is also the yearly high. Overall, USDCHF is likely to witness further downside but the bears need to conquer the 0.9000 mark to tighten the grips.
by MTradingGlobal