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Weekly resistance test gold buyers ahead of ECB, US GDPGold extends the bounce off monthly support while picking up the bids near $1,801 during the early Thursday. In doing so, the yellow metal pokes a one-week-old descending resistance line inside a one-month-long rising channel bullish formation. Also keeping the gold buyers hopeful is the quote’s sustained trading beyond 200-SMA and firmer oscillators. Hence, the commodity is likely to overcome the immediate hurdle surrounding $1,801 to aim for 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of September’s fall, near $1,810. It should be noted, however, that the stated channel’s resistance line and the last month’s top, respectively around $1,830 and $1,834 will probe the bulls afterward. Meanwhile, risk-off mood post the US GDP and ECB outcomes could direct the gold sellers towards challenging the bullish chart pattern by hammering $1,787 support. Should prices remain weak past $1,787, the 200-SMA level of $1,770 may probe the bears. It’s worth noting that multiple supports around $1,750, comprising 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, will challenge the further downside before eyeing the last month’s bottom close to $1,721. To sum up, gold has a smooth run-up on the north but the fears of tighter monetary policy poke the bulls.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD prints bullish flag as EU-UK jostle over BrexitGBPUSD buyers await for Brexit headlines as the Cable gyrates inside a bullish flag chart pattern on the four-hour play. The European Union (EU) diplomats aren’t likely to get a warm welcome in London on their arrival for Brexit talks. The reason could be linked to the comments from UK’s Brexit policymaker David Frost, conveying his discomfort with the bloc proposal for NI border. However, the Fed tapering concerns remain elevated ahead of Thursday’s US Q3 GDP and underpin the US dollar’s safe-haven demand. Hence, the quote is likely to remain firmer but further upside needs a clear break of 1.3815 hurdle. The same will confirm the bullish chart pattern, directing the pair further towards the 1.400 psychological magnet. During the rally, September’s peak of 1.3912 may probe the bulls. Alternatively, the monthly support line near 1.3750 offers immediate support to the GBPUSD prices during the pullback, ahead of the stated flag’s support line near 1.3725. Should the quote remains weak past 1.3725, the 1.3700 round figure and 200-SMA level near 1.3685 may probe the bears before directing them towards the monthly low of 1.3430. Overall, GBPUSD bulls keep the reins ahead of important Brexit talks.
Long
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD bulls need to tackle 0.7320-25 hurdle to keep the reinsAUDUSD bulls battle the key resistance, namely 200-SMA, during early Wednesday. Given the Aussie pair’s sustained rebound from the previous resistance line, not to forget successful trading above an eight-day-long rising support line, the buyers remain hopeful by the press time. However, overbought RSI conditions challenge the buyers, requiring a clear break of 0.7325 to keep the reins. Following that, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of July–August downside near 0.7410 and the previous monthly top near 0.7425 should return to the charts. Meanwhile, the aforementioned short-term support line near 0.7295 restricts the quote’s immediate pullback, if any, ahead of the resistance-turned-support of 0.7270. If at all, AUDUSD drops below 0.7270, the 0.7230 level may offer an intermediate halt during the likely fall towards the last month’s low surrounding 0.7125. Overall, AUDUSD is in the recovery mode after a two-month bearish performance.
Long
by MTradingGlobal
USDCAD breaks 1.2590 key support ahead of Canada Q2 GDPUSDCAD smashes a convergence of 200-SMA and an ascending support line from July as the pair traders await Canada’s Q2 GDP details, up for publishing around 12:30 GMT. Given the RSI conditions having a meager room to the south before hitting the oversold signals, the latest fall may pause around the 1.2500 round figure, if not then a horizontal line stretched from July 30, near 1.2490, will challenge the pari sellers. If Canadian GDP favors the CAD bulls, or USD lures more bears, the last month’s low near 1.2420 and the 1.2400 round figure will be in focus. Alernatively, a corrective pullback needs to sustained beyond 1.2590 to convince short-term buyers. Even so, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of July–August upside, near 1.2620, followed by a downward sloping trend line from August 20, around 1.2635 challenge the USDCAD bulls. Should the pair buyers manage to cross 1.2635, Friday’s swing high near 1.2710 may check the upside momentum targeting the 1.2800 round figures and the monthly top surrounding 1.2950.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
AUD dips as Australian GDP slowsThe Australian dollar has reversed directions and is in negative territory on Wednesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7724, down 0.36% on the day. Australia's economy rose 1.8% (QoQ) in the first quarter of the year, down from 3.2% in Q4. This was above the consensus of 1.5%. The level of economic activity currently is 0.8% above the fourth quarter 2019 pre-pandemic level, as the recovery continues to deepen. On an annual basis, GDP climbed 1.1%, rebounding from the -1.0% read in Q4. The solid growth in Q1 reflects the continuing easing of health restrictions and the recovery in the employment market. Still, the positive numbers failed to impress investors, as the Australian dollar is down considerably in Thursday trade. The market will get another snapshot of the strength of the economy on Thursday, with the release of Retail Sales (1:30 GMT). In March, Retail Sales climbed 1.1%, and an identical gain is projected for April. As well, the country's trade balance is expected to widen to AUD7.90 billion, up from AUD5.57 billion. The RBA did not make any waves at its monthly policy meeting on Wednesday, as the bank maintained its policy settings. There is some unfinished business on the plate of RBA policymakers, as the bank will decide in July whether to implement further QE. The RBA statement did not provide any clues as to what the RBA is planning to do come July. The statement noted that “despite the strong recovery in the economy and jobs, inflation and wage pressures are subdued" and added a typical message that the bank is "committed to maintaining highly supportive monetary conditions". Any hints from the RBA about QE could have a significant effect on the movement of the Australian dollar. On the upside, 0.7727 is under pressure. Above, there is resistance at 0.7777. There are support levels at 0.7658 and 0.7608
by OANDA
USDCHF approaches key hurdle ahead of SNB, US GDPUSDCHF extends the early week’s bounce-off 21-day SMA while directing bulls towards the key horizontal resistance ahead of the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) monetary policy meeting. Given the overbought RSI conditions and the SNB’s anticipated hawkish tone, despite no range expectations, the pair is likely to step back from 0.9375-80 resistance area comprising multiple levels marked since June 11. However, 50% Fibonacci Retracement of March 2020 to January 2021 downside, at 0.9325, followed by a 21-day SMA level of 0.9236, can restrict the quote’s pullback moves. Meanwhile, an upside clearance of 0.9380 will trigger a rally targeting the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.9465. Though, the 0.9400 round-figure can offer an intermediate halt during the rise. In a case where the USD/CHF bulls keep the reins past-0.9465, the June tops near mid-0.9500s will be the key to watch.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD extends post-Fed losses, US GDP in focusFed’s dovish halt and ECB policymakers hint favoring further negative rates dragged EURUSD below 50-day SMA for the first time since early November the previous day. The bears are currently eyeing a horizontal area comprising lows marked during December and the present month, around 1.2060-50. However, the preliminary readings of the US Q4 GDP can exert additional downside pressure to break the key support zone and test a 100-day SMA near 1.1950. It should, however, be noted that the November 09 top near 1.1920 can challenge the pair’s further downside. In a case where the US GDP surprise markets with better-than-forecast figures, EURUSD can combat the 50-day SMA level of 1.2120 but a falling trend line from January 06, at 1.2155 now, will challenge the bulls afterward. Also acting as an upside barrier is the last week’s peak near 1.2190 and the 1.2200 round-figure. If at all the quote rises past-1.2200 threshold, it’s the run-up to the monthly peak surrounding 1.2350 can’t be ruled out.
Short
by MTradingGlobal