Bitcoin Price Prediction 2025Bitcoin (BTC)
Price: $37,829.17 USD
Price: 18.15 ETH
1hr Change: 0.17%
24hr Change: 1.14%
7d Change: 4.02%
Volume: $22,694,872,312.93
Market Cap: $739,648,195,822.46
Circulating Supply: 19,552,325.00
Total Supply: 19,552,325.00
The price of Bitcoin is $37,758. It has a 24-hour trading volume of $77.41 billion, a market capitalization of $738.25 billion, and holds 50.91% of the market dominance. Over the last 24 hours, Bitcoin’s price has increased by 1.06%.
Bitcoin’s highest value was on November 10, 2021, when it reached $68,770. Its lowest-ever price was on July 17, 2010, at just $0.05. Since its all-time high, the lowest it has fallen to is $15,599, while the highest it has reached after that low point was $38,407.
Currently, the market sentiment towards Bitcoin is bullish, and the Fear & Greed Index indicates a score of 73, suggesting ‘Greed’.
Greed
Emotions in Trading Performance: Overcoming Fear, Greed & HopeThe Impact of Emotions on Trading Performance: Overcoming Fear, Greed, and Hope
Introduction:
Emotions significantly influence our decision-making process, which holds true for trading as well. During trading, our emotions can either be advantageous or detrimental to our performance.
The Role of Fear:
Fear plays a crucial role in trading. When fear takes hold, traders may hesitate and avoid necessary risks, ultimately missing out on profitable opportunities. Unfortunately, fear can lead to impulsive decisions rather than careful analysis and adherence to a well-thought-out trading plan.
Consequently, managing fear effectively is crucial for success in trading. By cultivating emotional control, traders can make objective and rational decisions based on trading strategies and market analysis. This disciplined approach will enhance trading choices and overall performance.
The Impact of Greed:
On the contrary, greed-driven behavior can also have a significant impact on trading outcomes. Greed often arises when traders become overly fixated on making quick money. Consequently, they may take excessive risks or hold onto losing trades, hoping for a miraculous turnaround. This behavior, fueled by greed, often results in substantial losses.
To overcome the negative effects of greed, traders must adhere to their risk management strategy and avoid impulsive decisions. Disciplined trading based on sound judgement and strategic planning is crucial to long-term success.
The Influence of Hope:
Hope is an emotion commonly experienced by traders. It fosters optimism and a desire for positive outcomes in the market. However, hope can also lead to biased decision-making and unnecessary risks. Traders may hold onto losing positions for longer than necessary, hoping for a reversal that may never come.
To counterbalance an excessive reliance on hope, traders must maintain objectivity. By implementing a rational approach and sticking to their trading plan, traders can make well-informed decisions that reduce the impact of hope on their trading outcomes.
Real-Life Examples:
Let's examine several real-life examples that illustrate the impact of emotions on trading performance.
Example of Fear:
Consider a trader who invests in a stock, only to learn about negative news regarding the company. Fearing losses, the trader hastily sells the stock at a significantly lower price without conducting thorough analysis or assessing the company's long-term prospects. In this instance, fear overrides sound judgement, leading to impulsive decision-making.
Example of Greed:
Imagine a trader who experiences a series of successful trades, resulting in substantial profits. Driven by greed, the trader becomes overconfident and deviates from their risk management strategy. By taking on larger positions and increasing their risk exposure, the trader encounters a significant loss that erodes their previous gains.
Example of Impulsive Behavior:
Consider a trader who identifies a potential trading opportunity but enters the trade impulsively without proper analysis or confirmation. This impulsive behavior, driven by emotion rather than a well-defined trading plan, results in an unfavorable outcome and monetary loss.
Strategies for Emotion Management:
Successfully managing emotions during trading is vital for consistent and sound decision-making. Here are some effective strategies:
Recognize and acknowledge emotions: Be aware of the emotions you experience while trading, particularly fear, greed, and hope. Recognize that emotions are a part of the process, but they shouldn't dictate your decisions.
Stick to a trading plan: Develop a comprehensive trading plan that includes entry and exit strategies, risk management guidelines, and profit targets. Adhering to this plan will minimize the influence of emotions on your choices.
Practice discipline: Exercise discipline in all aspects of trading. Avoid impulsive actions driven by emotional impulses and the fear of missing out. Stay committed to executing your strategy consistently.
Set realistic expectations: Understand that losses are inevitable in trading, and not every trade will be a winner. By setting realistic expectations, you can avoid excessive disappointment or overconfidence.
Take breaks and manage stress: Trading can be stressful, amplifying emotional reactions. Take regular breaks, engage in stress-relieving activities such as exercise or hobbies, and maintain a healthy work-life balance.
Seek support and education: Surround yourself with a supportive trading community or seek professional guidance. Continuously expand your knowledge through trading education, which will help you manage emotions effectively and enhance your trading performance.
Maintain a trading journal: Keep a journal to record your trades and the emotions you experience during each trade. Reflect on the impact of these emotions on your decision-making process, and use this self-reflection to identify patterns and develop strategies for better emotional management in the future.
Conclusion:
Emotions have a significant impact on trading performance, and understanding how fear, greed, and hope affect decision-making is crucial for success. By implementing effective emotion management strategies such as discipline, a well-defined trading plan, and self-awareness, traders can achieve more rational and objective decision-making, ultimately improving their trading outcomes.
Q&A_ What is Unitech saga?Namaste!
Unitech was the stock which was going at a speed of >400 KMPH in a road, where many many real-estate companies already driving, to win the race. The people on-board enjoyed the ride. Many people became MTM (mark to market) millionaires, especially the fully exposed people who had only 2-3 companies in their portfolio. Some people get on-board feeling FOMO (fear of missing out).
Anyways, I am comparing the real life vehicle driving, with the stock market, especially performance of the stock prices.
You see, in real life, if you drive at a speed of <40 KMPH, you are safe. But, if you drive at such a high speed, accident is certain especially if the road is crowded . Sure, you don't encounter accident and drive happily until you meet with any unexpected scenario.
2008 was the time, when the people, even the regulators thought that real estate will keep going up and up. But, it's not possible. In life and business, downturns and slow-downs are crucial for further progress. "Mistake are important to learn from it".
In simple terms, the stock prices has to fall to rise again. Like in a natural hierarchy, nature compromises deer to feed tiger/lion. It's a zero-sum game, anyone has to lose money for making someone's profit/gain. The stock prices has to fall to look reasonable for savage investors.
Q: Why the stock crashed so hard?
A: I am not going to tell what exactly happened at the fundamental levels, promoters, mismanagement, debt, promises, etc., but I only want to explain one thing, when there is greed and unreasonable returns in a very short period of time, it's better to stay away. Greed always traps the unknowledgeable and emotional people, especially in the stock markets.
Q: What you can learn from it?
1. Diversification: The people who could have only 2-3 companies in their whole portfolio, or forgot to diversify, has been hit hard. Even if they could have bought it at ~Rs 500, have lost it fully (LTP Rs 1.65).
2. FOMO: It's the fact that the retail people enter at near the top . Of course it's because of FOMO (fear of missing out), and greed to be rich quick. I have often seen, the big-rich people and hedge fund managers are very happy with >20% average annual return . But as a retail person, we want to double our investment every year. That sound too greedy and eventually erodes our capital in the long run.
3. A plan: People don't have a plan. What to buy, when to buy, when to sell (of course you should not sell at a loss: read more on my previous articles).
Fun-fact: "Diversification over than 32 companies does not reduce your risk, even it increases as you add more and more companies".
Disclaimer: The analysis I have shared is based on my understanding and experience in the markets. Investment does not guarantee a fixed return due to volatile nature of markets and may result in a loss. Please do your analysis and/or consult your financial advisor before investing.
Manage Greed And Fear with Simple TechniquesTwo serious problems in trading, which each one of us has faced at one stage or the other -- Greed and Fear. Most of us are still struggling with these issues.
According to Wikipedia Greed is an inordinate or insatiable longing for unneeded excess, especially for excess wealth, status, power, or food.
Simply put when the trader do not take profits at predefined targets and wait for more, he is getting greedy. Many a times such trades reverse and either the whole profit is gone or the trade becomes negative. Once burnt twice shy, besides other factors, greed also breeds fear.
According to Wikipedia Fear is a feeling induced by perceived danger or threat... which may cause an ultimate change behavior.
In trading it is the fear of loss which hampers performance. Many a times best opportunities are missed due to fear and sometimes fear induce us to get out of a trade too early. As the stock approaches the stop loss, the fear factor orders our brain to get out before (that carefully predefined) stop loss level is hit.
It is said that practice makes us perfect and there is nothing wrong in it. But it would need years of practice before we are perfect in managing greed and fear.
I am hereby giving very simple techniques which we may practice every day without even getting into a real trade. Basically these techniques are brain exercises which may improve our cognitive functionality.
We may call this technique TRAIN YOU BRAIN .
The basic idea behind these exercises is that the motivation to think stimulates motivation to do .
The Exercises:
First we should sit in any relaxed position in a quite environment and do simple breathing. Close your eyes and just concentrate on your breathing as you inhale and exhale. It's important not just to breath but to feel it too.
Do the above exercise for 3 to 5 minutes (or higher if you want to). This exercise will prepare the ground for the next main step of the exercise.
Now keep your eyes closed and imagine your favorite setup on your favorite time frame. It could be triangle setup; a flag; a moving average setup or any other which you think can be reliable for trading. I would suggest not to imagine more than two setups.
Imagine a stock has made your favorite set up and you are ready to trade it. You know your profit targets and stop loss.
In the first attempt let the trade go in your favor. Always and always take profits at targets or trail as you like. When this imaginary trade is finished, repeat this process with the second setup. Do not go too far with your imaginations, I mean do not imagine that you took a stock at 200 and sold it at 500 on same day. I don't know why but It reminds me of the Inception movie :D
When we say a setup, there is a fixed target to that set up and there is a fixed stop too. So dun let your imagination make you a millionaire on the same day.
Repeat the above exercise, in which trade goes in favor, four times..two times with each setup.
The advantage of this exercise will be that the brain will be trained to take profits at predefined targets and you will be able to manage a profitable trade in real life.
When it's done, on fifth attempt let your favorite setup trade go against you. Let it ultimately hit the stop loss and you suffer the loss. Remember not to exit the trade before that setup stop is hit. Repeat it with your second setup.
Repeat the above process 6 times, means 3 times with each setup.
This exercise will help in managing fear of loss, which is perhaps a greater enemy than greed.
The combination of these two brain exercises will surely help you in overpowering greed and fear and hence improve trading in real life.
I suggest you not perform these exercises during market hours. For better results, do these exercises in the evenings or in the morning. Rome was not built in a day so do not expect extraordinary results overnight.
Share Trading: Is it a Better Business ?? For Whom ???Put 10k in the market, buy stocks worth 50k or more on leverage and sell at 1k profit which is 10% profit on the investment capital..That's amazing!! Isn't it?
The bad part is, the anomalies to this hypothesis adversely impacts more than 90% of time. And the so called 'better business' turns out to be a losing affair for more than 90% of our trading community.
Let's first discuss about our losing 90% trading community:
A beginner takes his first trade on hunch and wins.. beginners luck..builds confidence..takes second trade and wins..no fear..may be he wins a couple of more and the beginner increases the trade size..over confidence and greed..he starts losing and bursts his account in aggressive attempts to win back profits at first and regain the losses lately.
What went wrong with this beginner?
Greed prevailed rationality
Lack of strategy or Edge in the markets
Revenge attitude
What about the remaining less than 10% of the trading community?
The most successful ones start with a predefined strategy..primary reliance on trade management..patterns and techniques come next..backtesting the strategy..paper trading..followed by real trading..flexible approach as far as the edge in the market is concerned..no fear..no greed..just exact plan execution.
So what makes these 10% better over the others?
The answer is..some important traits.
Let's briefly discuss some of these important traits.
Trade management
Pros are always ready to miss a trade not qualifying the pre defined risk to reward ratio. Normally 1:1 RRR is good, 1:2 is better and anything higher than that is the best. Not only RRR but trade management also involves trade sizing which is a subset of RRR. Suppose I want to take max. risk Rs. 1000 on a trade. On a particular set up, my stop comes out to be 2 points on a 200 Rs. stock. In this case my trade size would be 500 shares..just an example.
Edge in the market
OR the strategy which tells where, when and why to buy or sell. It could be a candlestick pattern or a combination of patterns. It could be an indicator buy or sell signal. The key here is to have patience for the signal. If there are multiple confirmations confluencing at the signal, it would be a high probability setup. Our Edge in the market and trade management then go hand in hand to make our day.
No fear no greed
According to best practitioners it's good to take some profits off the table at first predefined target. B'coz no matter how high probability the set up is, there are always some chances that it could turn out to be a loser. Remaining position can be trailed for substantial bonus gains. If a trade does not go in favor at first instance, just get out at predefined stop without extending losses. Suppressing greed would definitely improve win to loss ratio.
Greed kills but fear is a psychological breakdown. Fear bores over-protection in the trader. The trader may miss several best setups due to fear of failure. A beautiful trade missed is as painful as a losing trade. It has been observed that simple breathing exercises have significant impact on our cognitive functionality, which helps in overcoming fear of taking calculated risks.
So who can teach the trader the cannons of best trading practices?
No one but the trader himself. Of course a good mentor can make things less difficult but it all comes with practice and experience. However, the fact is that, most of us would not learn unless we lose some or most of our hard earned money.
Although I deliberately missed some concepts due to time and space constraints yet I hope the brief discussion highlighted important points concerned to share trading.
Do hit Like and comment.
Trade safe, be healthy.
Regards
Bravetotrade