DXY Has Potential to Strengthen in the Short TermAround the current price (99,251), price movement has begun to slow and is stuck within the Major Demand Zone.
Although sellers exerted pressure, the emergence of a lower wick in this series of consolidation candlesticks indicates accumulation or initial buying interest attempting to prevent a further decline in the DXY.
The impulsive decline from the premium level above is considered the completion of a long Wave 3 expansion or the final stages of completing Wave 5 within the microcycle.
Because the price has entered the area of major lower demand and is approaching the psychological level of 99,000, this bearish momentum is vulnerable to selling exhaustion.
The market has high potential to enter a Corrective Wave phase (Upward Correction) to ease the oversold indicator before determining the direction of the major trend.
Harmonicsignals
GBP/USD Continues to Under Pressure Due to UK FundamentalsGBP/USD traded with a negative bias below 1.3550 during today's Asian session.
The combination of political turmoil in London and higher-than-expected US inflation data has created a perfect storm for the pound, leaving it vulnerable to a retest of the psychological 1.3500 level.
✅ UK Politics: Keir Starmer's Leadership on the Roar
The pound is under intense selling pressure due to domestic uncertainty:
- Internal Rebellion: More than 80 Labour MPs have publicly called for the resignation of Prime Minister Keir Starmer. This comes after a poor local election result, triggering a severe leadership crisis in Downing Street.
- Market Impact: Political uncertainty often triggers capital flight from British assets as investors worry about the stability of fiscal and economic policy going forward.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Macroeconomics: Hot US CPI & Interest Rate Speculation
The US Dollar (USD) regained strength after the release of surprising inflation data:
- Inflation Surprise: US headline CPI jumped to 3.8% YoY, its highest level since 2023. Core inflation, which remained stubbornly at 2.8% YoY, shows that price pressures have not abated.
- Fed Pivot: The market responded by increasing the probability of an interest rate hike by 25 basis points in December 2026 to 35%. This "Higher for Longer" outlook provided a significant boost to US Dollar yields.
- Geopolitics: President Trump's statement that a ceasefire with Iran is on the "brink of collapse" strengthens the USD's status as a safe-haven reserve amid the failure of nuclear negotiations.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ GBP/USD Technical Analysis (Intraday)
Technically, the market structure supports a continuation of the downtrend:
- Psychological Support (1.3500): This is the last level of resistance. A close below this level would open the door to deeper weakness towards the structural base at 1.3420.
- Supporting Resistance (1.3550): Any intraday recovery attempt will likely be stalled in this area. As long as the price remains below this level, the bias remains bearish.
- Tonight's Catalyst: The US Producer Price Index release (7:30 PM WIB) will be in focus. If inflation at the producer level also shows an increase, selling pressure on GBP/USD will accelerate.
USD/JPY Begins to Retreat from HighsUSD/JPY retreated from its one-week high of 159.70 and is currently testing the psychological level of 159.00 during the European session.
Although the US dollar (USD) came under pressure from Washington's unilateral ceasefire extension, further weakness was held back by the negotiation deadlock and negative sentiment towards the yen (JPY).
---------------------------------------------------------
✅ Key Catalysts: Ceasefire Extension & Hormuz Blockade
Today's geopolitical dynamics will significantly influence the dollar's direction:
- 🔸Trump's Maneuver: President Donald Trump officially announced the extension of the ceasefire with Iran "until their proposal is presented and discussions are completed." This move was made at Pakistan's request to give the "divided" Iranian leadership time to formulate a peace proposal.
- 🔸Blockade Terms: Despite the ceasefire extension, Trump emphasized that the US naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in full effect. Trump even warned of the risk of a "major attack" if a permanent deal is not reached, maintaining the USD's safe-haven status.
- 🔸Low Yen Resilience: The JPY remains under pressure as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its April 26-27 meeting. Furthermore, Japan's dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, which remains unstable, discourages investors from aggressively accumulating the Yen.
---------------------------------------------------------
✅ Key Levels to Watch
- 🔸Immediate Resistance (159.70): Yesterday's daily high. A break above this level will open the way to the round number 160.00.
- 🔸Crucial Support (159.00): The current psychological level. If broken, the price will slide to the next target.
- 🔸Correction Target (158.85): The 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement. A fall below this level will weaken the weekly bullish structure.
- 🔸Structural Floor (157.57): Last week's swing low, which acts as the end of the current uptrend.
Gold XAU/USD Potential for Medium-Term CorrectionGold prices (XAU/USD) traded sideways around $4,800 during today's Asian session.
The market is in a state of high anticipation; on the one hand, progress in Lebanon-Israel diplomacy provides a breath of fresh air, but on the other, the ongoing US naval blockade of Iran keeps the US dollar (USD) competitive.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Positive Catalysts: 10-Day Ceasefire & Trump's Optimism
Global risk sentiment improved, driven by concrete diplomatic developments:
- ⚡Lebanon-Israel Ceasefire: The 10-day agreement between Israel and Lebanon is seen as a crucial foundation for broader peace between the US and Iran.
- ⚡Deal "Nearly Done": President Donald Trump asserted that Iran is close to reaching a final agreement. A Wall Street Journal report confirmed that Washington and Tehran have agreed in principle to hold new talks, although the details of the time and venue are still being negotiated.
- ⚡Technical Support: This positive sentiment helped gold bounce back from its daily low of $4,767 as safe-haven demand for the USD weakened.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Macroeconomics: Fading Inflation & Fed Pivot
US monetary conditions are starting to turn in favor of non-yielding assets:
- ⚡Smoothing PPI: Producer-level inflation data earlier this week eased fears of a spiral in energy inflation.
- ⚡Oil on the Defensive: Hopes of de-escalation are keeping oil prices low, which automatically reduces hawkish pressure on the Fed.
- ⚡Interest Rate Speculation: The market is now pricing in a 30% chance of an interest rate cut by the end of 2026. This prospect is holding back the USD rally and providing fuel for gold to record its third consecutive weekly gain.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ XAU/USD Technical Analysis (Intraday)
Technically, gold is in a healthy consolidation phase above a key support level.
- ⚡Critical Support ($4,767 - $4,768): This area proved to be a strong cushion during the previous session's decline. As long as this level holds, the daily bias remains neutral-bullish.
- ⚡Immediate Resistance ($4,830 - $4,850): This is the level that must be broken to retest the 200-period H4 SMA and confirm the continuation of the uptrend.
- ⚡Weekly Target: Gold is on track to close the week in positive territory, indicating buyer dominance in the medium term.
EUR/USD is in Positive MomentumThe EUR/USD pair moved within a narrow range with a mild negative bias below the 1.1700 level during today's Asian session.
Although the weekly trend remains positive, traders appear reluctant to take large positions before the release of crucial US CPI (Inflation) data tonight.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Fundamental Tug-of-War: Oil vs. Diplomacy
Current market sentiment is influenced by two opposing forces:
- ⚡Pressure Factors (EUR Bearish): Iran's re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz has boosted oil prices. This has fueled concerns about global inflation, forcing the Fed to remain hawkish, strengthening the US Dollar (USD) as a safe-haven asset.
- ⚡Supporting Factors (EUR Bullish): Hopes for a stable ceasefire through Washington negotiations next week between Lebanon, Israel, and Iran, and the US, are holding back excessive dollar appreciation. Investors are focused on US CPI data to see if the surge in energy prices has impacted consumer purchasing power.
✅ Technical Indicators: Constructive Bias Remains
Technically, EUR/USD has just passed a critical phase that has now transformed into a support zone:
- ⚡Confluence Zone (1.1665 – 1.1672): The price has successfully broken above the 200-day SMA and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. This overnight breakout is a significant bullish signal. As long as the price remains above this zone, the medium-term bullish bias remains valid.
- ⚡RSI (58): Shows healthy upward momentum and still has ample room to go before reaching the overbought area.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
🎯 Key Levels to Watch 🎯
- ⚡Resistance 1 (1.1742): The 50.0% Fibonacci Retracement Level. The nearest target for buyers if the US CPI data comes in lower than expected.
- ⚡Key Resistance (1.1820): The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. A break above this level would open the door to 1.1931 and 1.2072.
- ⚡Critical Support (1.1665 – 1.1672): 200-day SMA. This is the most important resistance level; if it breaks, this week's uptrend will be shattered.
NZD/USD Strengthens Despite Facing Strong BarriersThe NZD/USD pair managed to halt their two-day downtrend after bouncing off the 0.5680 area (a four-month low). Currently, the price is trading above the psychological level of 0.5700, up around 0.25%, boosted by glimmers of diplomatic hope in the Middle East.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Positive Catalyst: Rumors of a 45-Day Ceasefire
Global risk sentiment received a boost from media reports:
- ⚡Axios report: The US, Iran, and regional mediators are reportedly discussing the terms of a 45-day ceasefire. This news has eased tensions somewhat and triggered profit-taking in the US dollar (USD), which has provided support for commodity currencies like the Kiwi (NZD).
- ⚡Short-Term Pause: Despite rumors of a peace deal, the market remains skeptical given the fragile track record of previous negotiations.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Constraining Factors: Tuesday's Ultimatum & Energy Inflation
NZD/USD's upside potential remains limited as major threats still loom:
- ⚡Trump Deadline: President Donald Trump remains steadfast in his threat to destroy Iran's civilian infrastructure (bridges & power plants) if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by Tuesday (tomorrow).
- ⚡Iran's Conditions: Tehran is demanding revenue allocations as compensation for war damages to open the waterway, a condition the US is likely to reject.
- ⚡Fed Hawkishness: Surging energy prices are fueling inflation concerns. Traders are now pricing in a greater chance of the Fed raising interest rates in 2026, which fundamentally supports long-term USD strength.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ NZD/USD Technical Analysis (Intraday)
Technically, NZD/USD is attempting to form a short-term base.
- ⚡Critical Support (0.5680): A four-month low that has been successfully held. A break below this level would pave the way for a deeper decline to the 0.5600 area.
- ⚡Nearest Resistance (0.5740 - 0.5750): An area that must be broken to confirm that the recovery has continued strength.
- ⚡Market Conditions: The Easter Monday holiday in many countries has resulted in thin liquidity, meaning price movements could be choppy ahead of the New York session.
Gold XAU/USD Sees Sharp SelloffGold prices (XAU/USD) experienced massive panic selling, plummeting around $150 from their Asian peak of $4,800 to around $4,650 in Europe today.
Hopes of de-escalation that had emerged yesterday were dashed immediately after President Donald Trump's highly aggressive national address, sparking a strong rally in the US dollar (USD) as the primary reserve asset.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Trump Speech: "Stone Age" Threat & Energy Targets
- President Trump's statement this morning (08:00 WIB) completely changed market sentiment:
- Harsh Ultimatum: Trump threatened to return Iran to the "Stone Age" in the next 2-3 weeks if no deal is reached. This rhetoric erased the previously circulating optimism of a "short war."
- Infrastructure Targets: The assertion that Iran's energy infrastructure remains a potential target for the US military has sparked fears of a complete energy supply disruption.
- USD Impact: This extreme uncertainty forced investors out of risk assets and gold, shifting entirely to US dollar liquidity.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Oil Rally & Inflation Pressure (UAE Lobbying)
Additional factors from the Middle East are adding to the pressure on gold:
- UN Resolution: A Wall Street Journal report on the UAE's lobbying of the UN Security Council to authorize military operations in the Strait of Hormuz has boosted crude oil prices.
- Fed Rate Speculation: The surge in oil prices has revived the threat of inflation. The market is now betting that the Fed will be forced to raise interest rates to cushion the energy impact, which is driving up US Treasury yields.
- Opportunity Cost: Rising bond yields are making non-yielding gold very unattractive to large investors.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ XAU/USD Technical Analysis (Intraday)
Gold is currently in a technical "bleeding" phase after a strong rejection at $4,800.
- Critical Support ($4,600): The nearest psychological level. If this level fails to halt the decline, gold risks sliding back to the $4,500 zone.
- New Resistance ($4,750 - $4,800): This area now poses a significant obstacle to any recovery attempt.
- Long-Term Floor ($4,100): The four-month low touched last week is once again a key target if military escalation actually occurs as Trump has threatened.
Gold Moves Quite OptimisticallyGold prices (XAU/USD) hit a two-week high during today's Asian session, extending their four-day uptrend. The precious metal managed to surpass the psychological $4,700 level, driven by a weakening US dollar following the White House's latest statement regarding the duration of the conflict in the Middle East.
✅ End-of-War Speculation: "Two to Three Weeks"
President Donald Trump's statement on Tuesday night was the main market driver:
- ⚡Operation Estimate: Trump expressed his expectation that the US military operation against Iran would be completed within 2-3 weeks. He also emphasized that a formal agreement with Tehran was not a prerequisite for ending the war.
- ⚡USD Impact: Optimism about the end of the conflict quickly weakened the US dollar's safe-haven status. Since gold is priced in USD, a weakening greenback automatically benefits gold buyers.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Regional Risks: Largest Military Escalation in 2 Decades
Despite Trump's optimistic tone, the facts on the ground show tensions remain very high:
- ⚡Troop Buildup: The US deployed an additional 3,500 Marines, bringing the total troop buildup in the region to 53,500—the largest mobilization in 20 years.
- ⚡UAE Pressure & Strait of Hormuz: The United Arab Emirates is reportedly pushing for military action to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This is keeping oil prices high and fueling inflation concerns that could force the Fed to remain hawkish.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
🎯Key Levels to Watch 🎯
- ⚡Bullish Confirmation Target ($4,745 - $4,750): The 50.0% Fibonacci Retracement Level. A daily break above this area is needed to trigger further buying towards higher levels.
- ⚡Immediate Resistance ($4,700): The psychological round number currently being tested.
- ⚡Critical Support 1 ($4,590): The 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level. This is the "reversal" (SBR) area that must now be maintained to maintain bullish momentum.
- ⚡Psychological Support ($4,500): The second line of defense in case of mass profit-taking.
- ⚡Correction Floor ($4,400): The 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level. A break below this level would end the recovery phase and send gold back to test the 200-day SMA around $4,136.
GBP/CHF Downward Potential Quite ClearOn the 4-hour timeframe, GBP/CHF is showing clear signs of selling exhaustion.
- ⚡Market Structure: The medium-term trend remains bearish, but the downward momentum is starting to slow. The price is currently firmly anchored in the Major Demand Zone (lower gray box) between 1.05000 and 1.05500.
- ⚡Price Action: A minor double bottom is forming in the demand zone. The appearance of several candles with long lower wicks (wick rejections) at 1.05430 indicates that buyers are starting to accumulate positions to defend the psychological level of 1.05000.
✅ Key Zones:
- ⚡Resistance: 1.06200 (Supply Area / Last Lower High).
- ⚡Support: 1.05000 (Psychological Floor / Major Demand).
In terms of the wave cycle, GBP/CHF appears to be completing the final phase of a long downtrend:
- ⚡Wave Structure: The decline from 1.09000 appears to be completing the Wave 5 structure.
- ⚡Current Status: Since the price is already in an area of very strong demand and the RSI momentum is starting to show bullish divergence (price forming a LL, indicator forming a HL), there is a strong indication that Wave 5 is nearing its end or has reached its peak (ending diagonal).
- ⚡Projection: After Wave 5 is complete, the market will theoretically begin a reversal phase leading to Corrective Wave A with the first upside target towards the 1.07500 area.
The main bias for GBP/CHF is currently neutral, tending towards bullish for the medium term. Although the major trend remains down, selling at 1.05430 is very risky because the downward "room" is very limited and is at the end of the Elliott wave.
XAGUSD | Retracement Into Supply Before Continuation LowerSilver is currently in a short-term corrective pullback after the recent impulsive downside move. Price is approaching a key supply zone around 83.90, which previously acted as a distribution area.
This region could attract fresh selling pressure, potentially forming a lower high within the current bearish structure.
If price reacts from the supply zone, the market may continue the broader downside move.
Bearish scenario:
• Pullback toward 83.90 supply zone
• Rejection confirming lower high formation
• Continuation toward 81.50 liquidity target
The overall structure still favors sell-on-rallies unless price breaks and sustains above the supply zone.
Key Levels
Supply Zone: 83.70 – 83.95
Current Price: ~83.25
Liquidity Target: 81.50
Transrail Lighting LtdTransrail Lighting Ltd is near support level and making a butterfly pattern.
Here, Fibonacci levels are applied. So, If it breaks the ratio of 0.5 & 0.618, we will see 1.0
Based on ratio you can see target level in the chart.
As per fundamentals theory, 0.5 and 0.618 are strong resistance, once sustain above this it will touch to 1.0 and 1.618. So accumulate on every dip.
Also, this stock has took support from the all time high level. It had given the breakout earlier and give some upside movement, now taking support from that ATH level and ready to go up.
TATA MOTORS Hello & welcome to this analysis
The stock in daily time frame has given a double breakout
Inverse Head & Shoulder
Bullish Harmonic Seahorse
The upside levels as per IHS are 740 & 790 while the Seahorse pattern is indicating 775.
Both patterns have strong support at 690-700 and both would be considered invalid below 665
All the best
HDFC BANKHello & welcome to this analysis
It has made double bearish Harmonic patterns at the same PRZ level - Crab & Deep Crab in the daily time frame with so far today's candle being an Open = High in daily time frame.
A retracement till 1950 - 1875 could be possible as long as the stock does not cross 2050.
A heavyweight in both Nifty & Bank Nifty, it could halt the uptrend of both the indexes either till it does not complete its pullback or the patterns get negated.
All the best
GOLDHello & welcome to this analysis
In 4hrs time frame GOLD (MCX) has activated a bearish Harmonic Bat pattern.
It could retrace down to 99500 - 98500, will consider 100750 as stop loss for this set up.
Do keep in mind, GOLD overall is very strong and this could likely be a shallow retracement.
Regards
Bearish Harmonic in Play – Silver Sell Zone TriggeredBearish Harmonic in Play – MCX:SILVER1! Sell Zone Triggered 🔔
The pattern marked from X → A → B → C → D forms a Bearish Harmonic Structure , most likely a Bearish Butterfly , confirmed by key Fibonacci ratios:
* XA to AB retracement: 78.8%
* BC to CD extension: 1.543
This setup signals the formation of a Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) near point D , where a bearish trend may initiate.
📉 Bearish Price Outlook
The dotted projection lines and red arrow illustrate the anticipated downward move:
* Price is likely to face resistance and reverse from the PRZ between ₹108,771 and ₹109,850
* A break below ₹106,899 could trigger further decline toward key support levels at ₹103,904 and ₹98,810
THERMAX - Bullish Bat -Bullish Bat is a harmonic pattern as shown in pink.
-Usually, during the base formation post making a Bullish bat pattern, a lot of big players accumulate which is then followed by a sudden spurt in prices.
- I see a triple bottom being made in an upward trend line suggesting Higher Lows.
- The base length can vary depending on the market scenarios. Patience is required in this kind of bamboo shoot stories.
- Here the base pattern suggests a symmetrical triangle is being formed. Too early to claim but so far looks like one. Hoping for a supersonic breakout from a symmetrical triangle pattern and a harmonic pattern.
NIFTY ITHello & welcome to this analysis
NIFTY IT (CNXIT) appears to have completed in
Monthly from 2016 lows an impulse 5 waves up
Weekly shows a running flat wave 4 followed by sub waves of the terminal 5th wave
Daily indicates post the impulse an ABC corrective ended (ending)
is this A of abc down after a monthly 5 up or is it wave 2 complete with this ABC?
It is too early to say the latter. Normally the corrective tends to retest the start of the preceding sub wave 4 that is around 31000 but that is not mandatory as per Elliott Wave rules.
An early indication of which wave is unfolding will depend on how the sub waves come out now, either they will be corrective, then it would be B of abc or they will be impulse then wave 2 has ended and index is into Wave 3.
Interesting days ahead for IT index
All the best
BOSCH, SAMVARDHNA MOTHERSON & SONA BLWHello & welcome to this analysis
Auto ancillary stocks at strong support levels suggesting a bounce/reversal from current levels with them forming Bullish Harmonic Patterns in weekly time frame
BOSCH - Alt Shark
MOTHERSON - Alt Shark
SONACOM - Cypher
Today's candle were very strong, one can look to add on follow through confirmation or on pullback, the risk reward appears decent at current levels.
In the video I have suggested possible levels of resistance on upside along with negation levels on the downside for each case.
All the best
NiftyHello & welcome to this analysis
The index which attempted a bounce on Tuesday failed to breach above 23250, today it is again witnessing selling pressure.
A bullish Harmonic Alt Shark could pause/stop this decline near 22675 which is the lower trendline of a falling channel apart from it being the monthly Ichimoku support area.
Further decline could take it to 22400 where it has a Bullish Harmonic Gartley.
Short covering as of now is appears to be only above 23175
The risk reward going forward still remains in favour of short side trades






















