NIFTY batting at 17519 a record closing highNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -14-09-21
IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
17387.65 / 17532.7 / 17386.9 / 17519.45
H-L = 146 points
VIX 13.73 / +1.1%
FII DII: +399 Crores
Likely open: Flat to mild positive. Tomorrow is the weekly expiry so keen to see where does NIFTY ends and whether BANK NIFTY can cross 37000 or it yet again goes sideways.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 Minutes Chart
A mild gap-up open was sustained very well as can be seen from the chart and NIFTY ended the day close to the day high and above 17500.
The daily chart indicates that there was a strong buying that led the rise to the levels above 17500.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
The Weight Lifters
INFOSYS 19
TCS 17
TITAN 12
BHARTI AIRTEL07 11
ICICI BANK 10
TOTAL 69
The Laggards
NESTLE 02
TATA CONSU 02
HDFC BANK 02
AXIS BANK 01
ASIAN PAINTS 01
TOTAL 08
Lifter - Draggers = +61
POSITIVES
NIFTY closed at a new ATH and also hit a new ATH.
And both are above 17500.
TCS, INFOSYS, and KOTAK BANK helped NIFTY to a great extent in holding on to the higher plains.
FIIs and DIIs have bought to the extent of 399 Crores which is somewhat less around such levels.
NEGATIVES
HDFC twins closed a bit below the P Close.
RELIANCE has not been able to hold higher levels closer to 2400 and keeps falling back below 2380.
BANK NIFTY is still below 37000 resistance which may drag NIFTY should HDFC BANK slide.
TRADING RANGE FOR 16-09-21
17300-17350 is the new support base. For the resistances, we will have to a few days go by to see how and where it gets formed.
BANK NIFTY support stays at 36200-400 and resistance at 37000-37200. This has not been changing for quite a few sessions now.
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
I think my insights of yesterday were read by NIFTY as it deceived all and made a steady climb to the psycho mark of 17500 and closed above the line.
If we look at the contribution of the yop 5 lifters of NIFTY it is 69 points and that of the draggers is 08. So the leaders net contributed 61 but NIFTY rose by 139 clearly indicating that the rally was well supported by the broader market.
BANK NIFTY also extended its daily range to 500+ points which helped NIFTY. If HDFC BANK recovers, then BANK NIFTY is likely to cross the 37K mark - the Q is - will the giant move upwards?
The NIFTY rise may have also been contributed by the Short Covering of 17400 CE as there was a good number of CE written as part of the ATM straddle.
What do you feel about this?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
15-09-21
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
HDFC
Looking good above 2840Looking good above 2840 if hold marked support
Either can buy 2840 CE for September series or can buy in cash. It is an positional view.
Are we really in a Bull Market with daily Sell-offs?NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -14-09-21
IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
17420.35 / 17438.55 / 17367.05 / 17380.00
H-L = 77 points
VIX 13.58 / -3.21%
FII DII: +1330 Crores
Likely open: Positive Gap-up provided it is able to stay above today’s close for an hour or so.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 Minutes Chart
A gap-up open and then a new ATH was flagged and then the usual drifting game started with the mandatory sell-off just after 1300h and then sideways moves that resulted in yet another ATH Close, but well below the ATH as well as daily high by 58 points.
The daily chart indicates that there is a series of Doji-type candles - do they suggest a continuation pattern or exhaustion?
I am not sure about it.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
The Weight Lifters
TCS 09
HCL TECH 07
LT 07
KOTAK BANK 06
INDUSIND BANK 05
TOTAL 34
The Laggards
HDFC 12
HDFC BANK 07
NESTLE 04
INFOSYS 04
HUL 04
TOTAL 33
Lifter - Draggers = +1
POSITIVES
NIFTY closed at a new ATH and also hit a new ATH.
TATAMOTORS, KOTAK BANK, TCS, and LT have shown strong momentum.
NIFTY was resilient to a great extent as the day low was above 17350 and almost a 100 points above the low of the earlier session.
FIIs have bought in excess of 1400 Crores.
NEGATIVES
RELIANCE, HDFC twins, and INFOSYS ended up dragging the indices from the higher plains.
NIFTY is closing a well 58 points below the ATH.
BANK NIFTY though ended in the green continues to under perform.
TRADING RANGE FOR 15-09-21
17000-17200 is the support base.17400-450-500 may be the resistance area for NIFTY.
BANK NIFTY support stays at 36200-400 and resistance at 37000-37200.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
They say looks are deceiving. And NIFTY is doing exactly the same. It is in a bull market, has made an ATH close after hitting an ATH high that was 58 points above the closing price.
The first few minutes register a high and then the drifting game starts which at times results in sell-off and if it falls around 17300 or below, it bounces back and ends flat.
I have been writing for over 2 years but I have not seen such situations happening around ATH levels.
The manner in which the prices move of some of the heavyweights gives an indication that what is happening appears to be stage-managed as the candles on the daily charts would confirm so.
When an index or a stock is at ATH, the path of least resistance should be on the upside. However, in the case of NIFTY, it is on the downside and that is what is surprising. INFOSYS, RELIANCE, HDFC BANK are being used to cap the upside in NIFTY for now as these three on their combined strength can lift NIFTY way beyond 17500.
In the end, patience and the ability to read the intent of the market and the scrips is more likely to pay off than anything else.
What do you feel about this?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
14-09-21
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
Swing Trading Opportunities for W/B 13-9-21TRADING WATCHLIST FOR W/B 13-9-21
INTENT
I will only be sharing the time frame and the scrip name. I will leave the trade basis aside as the intent is to engage the reader in learning the basics of finding good scrips. You can have a look at the charts and place your favorite indicators and check it out if any of these fit your trade plan.
ON MY WATCHLIST FOR W/B 13-9-21 --
This is a weekly review of the available opportunities so my time frame for analysis moves from Daily to Weekly and from Hourly to Daily. Here are the likely candidates for the week -
WEEKLY TIME FRAME- FOR LONG POSITIONS
BAJAJ AUTO
COAL INDIA
KOTAK BANK
SBIN
SHREE CEMENT
IDFC FIRST BANK
CHALET
DAAWAT
DHANUKA
GATI
GIC HOUSING
RAYMOND
VENKY’S
HDFC AMC
VAKRANGEE
AB CAPITAL
IDEA
ITC
REC LTD
There are plenty of opportunities out there even after NIFTY hitting 17300+. So, please review your fund position, have a look at the indicator that fits you well, and plan for investing / trading per your risk appetite.
SECTORS LOOKING GOOD FOR LONG POSITIONS-
AUTO
BANK NIFTY
CPSE
MEDIA
Clearly, there is a lesser number of sectors that are now offering good entry points in comparison to the earlier weeks. The reason is that either some of the sectors have witnessed retracement of price levels or many of them are way above a level from where a good RR trade could be initiated. BANK NIFTY seems to be the best bet for now.
Ideally, the best candidate would be the one that features in both the lists. I may / may not take these trades as not every opportunity should / can be traded.
I believe that it is better to help someone learn the technique of selecting good scrips than giving tips - in any case, I am not SEBI regd so I do not have the authority as well to do so.
In case you are able to spot the set up and the trade basis, please do share so that together we can learn.
Thank you for your time and Happy Learning,
Umesh
12-9-21
Disclaimer -- This post is shared for learning and educational purposes only and in no way acts as a recommendation. I am not a SEBI regd trader so please either decide your trades/investments on your own or consult your financial advisor before making any trades.
HDFC: (Intraday) Comment below the name of the PatternHDFC is ready to give a fresh breakout.
Details are given in the chart itself.
BANK NIFTY rescues NIFTY for a changeNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -08-09-21
IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
17375.75 / 17383.4 / 17254.20 / 17353.5
H-L = 149 points
VIX 14.41 / -3.29%
FII DII: -802 Crores
Likely open: BANK NIFTY holds the key. Based on the numbers looks a flat to a positive open.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
NIFTY played negative today and did not even bother to go past the opening high made and ended the day just below the P Close.
In the process, it has not only done a lower high but also made a lower low by drifting towards 17250 and dangerously close it.
Soon as Europe opened, the sell-off started and lasted for an hour or so, and then, there was the usual jerks-driven relief rally only to end flat.
On the daily charts, it has formed a hammer pattern indicating good bounce from the lower areas.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
The Weight Lifters
KOTAK BANK 03
HDFC BANK 03
ICICI BANK 02
TITAN 02
HUL 01
TOTAL 11
The Draggers
NESTLE 04
INFOSYS 04
TCS 04
BAJAJ FINANCE 03
RELIANCE 03
TOTAL 18
Lifter - Draggers = -07
The above is what mattered in the end. It looks like the rest of the scrips had no role to play or it was too insignificant by EOD.
POSITIVES
NIFTY ended flat and recovered more than 90 points after the sell-off.
BANK NIFTY changed the corner and was the savior for NIFTY.
Even though the private banks have not contributed significantly, their not being negative helped the indices to maintain their levels.
RELIANCE and HDFC recovered well from their respective lows which came in handy in ensuring that NIFTY closes flat.
NEGATIVES
NIFTY could not go anywhere near 17400.
NIFTY breached the recent swing lows and drifted towards 17250.
INFOSYS and TCS have been showing continued weakness.
MARUTI has been falling yet again after a good recovery a couple of sessions ago.
FIIs DIIs remain net sellers.
TRADING RANGE FOR 08-09-21
17000-17200 is the support base.17400-450-500 may be the resistance area for NIFTY.
BANK NIFTY support stays at 36200-400 and resistance at 37000-37200.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
The price action in INFOSYS appeared to be managed if one looks at the candles for the last 2 hours. There were spikes and sell-off as if 1700 CE writers had a point or two to prove in ending the day below 1700.
MARUTI fell more than 1.5% but it seems to have made no impact on NIFTY which is indeed surprising as, at one stage, the fall was close to 100 points.
The star of the day was KOTAK BANK as it almost single-handedly changed the tide for NIFTY and therefore BANK NIFTY. The strong up move prompted other banks to also chip in. It now needs to be seen if it can hold on to the momentum possibly created by it being included in the LIC IPO proceedings.
Interesting expiry tomorrow - will the God that rings in Auspicious Beginnings help NIFTY close the week at a new ATH? Or will the IT biggies with RELIANCE like to keep dragging NIFTY?
Wait and Watch!
What do you feel about this?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
08-09-21
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
What would happen if US markets were non-existent?NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -07-09-21
IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
17401.55 / 17436.5 / 17287.00 / 17362.1
H-L = 149 points
VIX 14.9 / -0.34%
FII DII: -283 Crores
Likely open: Flat to positive if BANK NIFTY turns green. Today’s low is crucial for the short term and for the week as this is a short week with only 2 sessions remaining before the week ends.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
NIFTY crossed 17400 yet again and made a new high at 17436.
During the day, it remained very volatile on account of BANK NIFTY and even broke 17300 momentarily and then hit a fresh ATH.
However, that was also sold in to and the day ended on a flat note.
During the day, NIFTY took support from 200 MA on the 5-minute chart.
On the daily charts, NIFTY has formed yet another Doji / Spinning top indicating indecisive approach.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
The Weight Lifters
HDFC 27
RELIANCE 11
BHARTI AIRTEL 06
ITC 04
HDFC BANK 02
TOTAL 50
The Draggers
INFOSYS 18
TCS 08
BAJAJ FINANCE 06
ICICI BANK 06
AXIS BANK 06
TOTAL 44
Lifter - Draggers = +06
POSITIVES
NIFTY hit a fresh ATH.
HDFC made a roaring comeback as a leader and closed above 2800 psycho level.
RELIANCE also managed to hold on to the 2400+ levels and closed above the earlier close.
HDFC BANK made a good recovery after the morning shake-out and help prevent a further slide in BANK NIFTY.
NEGATIVES
BANK NIFTY keeps underperforming and is facing the Sell on Rise type of situation.
After a smart recovery by INFOSYS yesterday, it almost reversed all the gains impacting TCS as well.
NIFTY unable to close in green leave aside above 17400 is not a good sign.
FIIs DIIs are both net sellers.
TRADING RANGE FOR WB 07-09-21
17000-17200 is the support base. I do not know what the upper levels may be.
BANK NIFTY support stays at 36200-400 and resistance at 37000-37200.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
Despite HDFC BANK bouncing back 20+ points from the lows, BANK NIFTY ended way below the P Close. This is surprising and possibly indicates how important ICICI BANK and AXIS BANK have become for the index.
Amidst pressure from BANK NIFTY, NIFTY could not hold 17300 levels also and dipped for a while and then recovered smartly.
I am wondering what would happen if US markets were non-existent? Clearly, in the absence of any clues from the big brother, our indices chose to play safe and ended flat to negative.
What do you feel about this?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
07-09-21
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title as well as its contents can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
HDFC showed a good move todayNSE:HDFC showed a good move today with volumes. It can show 2900 levels.
HDFC- Short Term Position 5% or moreHDFC share form a W pattern in day chart as its taken support around 2400 & had break out around 2500. Currently trading at 2800 so also taking support at small trade line as show in the chart, it can go for 3000 for next target.
Please trade on your own risk, this analysis just for study purpose.
Simple Trade Setup | HDFC | 07-09-2021NSE:HDFC
Observations:
1)On 1hr time frame, it is making descending triangle pattern, in which it is making lower highs but keep on taking support from 2735-2740 level range.
Please refer below chart : 1hr time frame.
2) Also on 1hr time frame, if it continuous to complete double bottom pattern then it will be a good buy once it test the 2780-2782 level range and gets support from it.
Please refer below chart : 1hr time frame.
-------------------------------------
Trade Setup for Date 07-09-2021:
1) Don't Jump in to trade at the beginning of the market. Let it get settle for 15-20min first and judge the price action.
2) Everything is mentioned on the chart. I hope it is easy to understand.
3) All the levels will work as support, resistance, entry and exit w.r.t price action near that level.
Please refer below chart for levels.
Hope I made it easy to understand it.
Do comment your doubt or suggestion.
HDFC SELL IN PRZ. HDFC SELL PRZ........SCRIPT IN PRZHDFC is in PRZ as per the harmonic pattern that is Bearish Bat
HDFC SELL PRZ 2793-2835........script is in PRZ
Stoploss 2926.15
Target 2661.
please follow strict stop loss and target. Batis usuallyvery correct but risky also as stoploss comes little bit far from PRZ. NSE:HDFC .thanks for the support. any querry, please comment.
something is about to happen in HDFCNSE:HDFC
break the channel
good up move
now ready for one more up move??????
lets see what will happen
RELIANCE towers over NIFTY batting 17323NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -03-09-21
IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
17262.45 / 17340.1 / 17212.2 / 17323.6
H-L = +186 points
VIX 14.54 / +2.11%
FII DII: +1436 Crores
Likely open: Positive but there may be selling pressure if BANK NIFTY does not support it.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
A good gap-up opening and then the typical retest of P Close. This is how NIFTY moved in the AM session.
Then, NIFTY retested and crossed the opening high and fell again to retest the P Close and recovered smartly to end the day closer to the ATH.
On a 5 minute chart, NIFTY looks highly volatile as if we are seeing a BANK NIFTY chart.
On the weekly chart, NIFTY shows a strong bullish candle that has not been seen for the last several weeks.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
The Weight Lifters
RELIANCE 63
TITAN 09
INFOSYS 07
IOC 05
EICHER MOTORS 03
TOTAL 87
The Draggers
HDFC BANK 10
HDFC 09
HDFC LIFE 06
HUL 05
BHARTI AIRTEL 02
TOTAL 32
Lifter - Draggers = +55
The towering presence of RELIANCE is what changed the fortunes of NIFTY.
POSITIVES
RELIANCE soared and closed the week in style at a new ATH.
INFOSYS restored the 1700 level and is now above its 200 DMA.
Despite the negative news, MARUTI closed higher and at one stage looked set to retest 7000.
FIIs DIIs are both Net Buyers.
NEGATIVES
BANK NIFTY continues to underperform.
HDFC triplets were on the other side of RELIANCE. They perhaps tried to justify their might.
TRADING RANGE FOR WB 06-09-21
17000-17200 is the support base. I do not know what the upper levels may be.
BANK NIFTY support stays at 36200-400 and resistance at 37000-37200.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
The NIFTY rally is now becoming a stock driven rally possibly indicating exhaustion at higher levels and the coming week may see some profit booking.
Today it was RELIANCE and next week it could be INFOSYS and HDFC family.
It is time to turn cautious until BANK NIFTY closes well above 37200 as the index has the potential to drag NIFTY and upset the party.
What do you feel about this?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
03-09-21
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title as well as its contents can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
Simple Trade Setup | HDFC BANK | 02-09-2021NSE:HDFCBANK
Trade Setup for Date 02-09-2021:
1) Don't Jump in to trade at the beginning of the market. Let it get settle for 15-20min first and judge the price action.
2) Everything is mentioned on the chart. I hope it is easy to understand.
3) All the levels will work as support, resistance, entry and exit w.r.t price action near that level tomorrow.
Please refer below chart for levels.
Hope I made it easy to understand it.
Do comment your doubt or suggestion.
Back to the old tussle - FIIs Vs DIIs and Nifty slipsNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -01-09-21
IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
17185.6 / 17225.75 / 17055.05 / 17076.25
H-L = 170 points
VIX 14.19 / -2.27%
FII DII: +621 Crores
Likely open: Positive and interesting to see how Nifty reacts as this would be the first expiry in the 17000 zones. The big Q is will it hold the key level?
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
NIFTY made yet another high and a higher low as well.
The higher high could not be sustained due to intense selling pressure from some of the heavyweights which dragged the index below 17100.
The daily charts indicate that there was selling pressure but the volume is not higher than yesterday’s session. This is more of a profit booking drive that has been undertaken by the FIIs who have been consistently buying in the cash market for the last several sessions.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
The Weight Lifters
ASIAN PAINTS 11
NESTLE 09
RELIANCE 07
SBI LIFE 07
AXIS BANK 06
TOTAL 40
The Draggers
INFOSYS 25
HDFC 22
TCS 19
BAJAJ FINSERV 14
TATA STEEL 07
TOTAL 87
Lifter - Draggers = -47
Of the 55 negative points, 47 have come per above. This is the might of these scrips.
POSITIVES
NIFTY hit another ATH above 17200.
BANK NIFTY ended above 36500 and ended in the good green despite heavy selling in NIFTY.
RELIANCE did not end in red.
HDFC BANK more or less held its ground.
NEGATIVES
IT heavyweights have been witnessing selling pressure for the last few sessions.
NIFTY failed to close above the P Close.
NIFTY fell close to 17050 and tomorrow is expiry so volatility may be high.
DIIs have begun banking gains which led to selling pressure.
TRADING RANGE FOR 02-09-21
16950-17250 is the range that I can think of for the week.
NIFTY may consolidate between these levels until either is broken on a closing basis.
BANK NIFTY support base moves up to 36200-400 and resistance at 36800-37000-37200.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
With the change in the lot size of NIFTY from Aug 2021, NIFTY has become more volatile and now with it being above 17000, a 150 point move on either side is also less than 1% move which is what needs to be digested by the traders. It has now started giving the kind of moves that BANK NIFTY used to give.
Around March 2020, BANK NIFTY had reached levels around 16500-17000. Today, NIFTY is at 17000+ and we are around 17 months away from those days. This is the power of the stock market.
What do you feel about this?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
01-09-21
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
HDFC - Bullish PatternThe stock has broken out of its resistance level of 2875 today, clubbed with decent volumes.
If it sustains above 2875, which should now act as support, it can be bought for target levels of 2895 and 3040.
Refer the Fibonacci Retracement tool given in the chart for various support levels which can be utilized for identifying your stop loss basis your risk profile.
Please follow us for more trading setups like these.
If you have any queries/suggestions related to above pattern, feel free to type below in the comment section.
Do show your love by pressing the like if you liked the idea.
HDFC is ready to show 2850 levelsNSE:HDFC can show 2850 levels soon. It gave good closing along with RSI and volumes.
FIIs show their might as NIFTY surges past 17100 with easeNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -31-08-21
IN SUMMARY
O / H / L / C
16947.5 / 17153.5 / 16915.85 / 17132.2
H-L = 238 points
VIX 14.52 / +9.01%
FII DII: +1909 Crores
Likely open: Positive but profit booking may kick in if Global cues do not support.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS
And the surge continued today as well and NIFTY finally sailed past 17000 with relative ease and ended comfortably above 17100.
It appeared that it may retest levels below 16900, but then it quickly recovered and then never looked back except for the lunch session quick fall which was bought in ti by the bears.
NIFTY is likely to set its own course as it builds its bases in the newer zones.
The daily charts indicate a strong bullish candle.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
The Weight Lifters
BAJAJ FINANCE 38
TCS 16
BAJAJ FINSERV 16
HDFC 14
BHARTI AIRTEL 12
TOTAL 96
The Draggers
RELIANCE 07
NESTLE 04
TATAMOTORS 02
INDUSIND 01
BPCL 01
TOTAL 15
Lifter - Draggers = +81
The above indicates that a larger base of scrips in the NIFTY family helped it close above 17100.
POSITIVES
NIFTY crossed 17000 and closed above 17100 with ease.
BANK NIFTY finally emerged out of the resistances and soared which helped NIFTY.
Broader market participation resulted in NIFTY scaling higher levels with relative ease.
FIIs are back with a bang in the buying business and clearly, this had a positive impact on NIFTY.
Top 5 NIFTY heavyweights ended the month at their respective ATH which is a great positive.
NEGATIVES
BANK NIFTY kept underperforming and had a very narrow range for the day.
VIX is up 9% as shorters would have been forced to run cover.
RELIANCE as usual chose not to participate in the rally and this alone has the potential to be a spoilsport for NIFTY.
DIIs have sold heavily indicating that from their viewpoint, the short-term top is nearing or has been reached.
TRADING RANGE FOR 01-09-21
At best 17000 base is what I can think of for now. We will need to see how the index moves during the week before deciding on the levels.
BANK NIFTY support base stays at 35400-500 and resistance at 35800-36000-36200.
INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS
Top 5 heavyweights of NIFTY recorded ATH close on monthly candles.
Like RELIANCE, KOTAK BANK also has the tendency to play its own game. Except that today HDFC BANK also joined it and saved BANK NIFTY from slipping from the lower levels.
BANK NIFTY has formed a Doji candle on the daily chart with good volumes. It is a sign of caution or a positive move ahead. We will need to wait and watch. As long as HDFC BANK stays positive, it will handle BANK NIFTY on the upside.
What do you feel?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
31-8-21
P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.