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Can you predict such falls? Fibonacci Retracements - (bad audio)Market fall may have taken few by surprise, but followers of price action techniques should have this scenario in their plan. Trend analysis (or Elliot wave analysis) along with Fib Retracements could be of enormous help if used in tandem with price action. They at least give you minimum target and levels, so that you are able to ride the trend and also do not make impulsive entry decisions. (Disclaimer: the audio quality is really bad. Somehow the system is not allowing external mic and using internal mic which is capturing lot of noise. Tried typical methods but not working. If you have solution let me know)
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by jay21shah
WaveTalks-HDFC- The Connecting Moves (Wave Analysis)Short Video Outlook on HDFC ------------------------- 22nd Jan 2022 ------------------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4th July 2021 - HDFC - WaveTalks -Pattern /Patience & Penultimate Correction which was Wave 4 Triangle. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ---------------------- Expectation ---------------------- Wave 5 Expected Post Penultimate Wave - Targets achieved 2650 / above 2777 - 2900+ ---------------------- Outcome ---------------------- Achieved - Wave 5 Topped at 3021 Highs in Nov 2021 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 9th Nov 2021 - HDFC -Wave 5 - What it could be unfolding ? --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------- Expectation ----------------------- Some kind of Topping Out Pattern Ending Wave 5 & The Impulsive Sequence Starting from 1473 Lows in March 2020 ----------------------- Outcome ----------------------- Topping Out Pattern in Wave 5 Unfolded as Ending Diagonal & Topped at 3021 Highs in Nov 2021 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------- What Next ? ----------------------- Ongoing Corrections unfolding. 2540 could be a possible short term support as it unfolds Piercing Candlestick Pattern - Reversal Pattern Rising Trendline Supports Few days of possible upside moves can be expected next as India has Budget 2022 & Break below 2541 can make stock slip & retest 2380-2400 support zone. Getting upside bounce from 2541 -partial targets to be booked at 2650 & 2750 Thanks & Have A Lovely Weekend
HLong
by WaveTalks
20
Data Drievn Analysis of Nifty and Bank Nifty for w/e 24-12-21DATA DRIVEN ANALYSIS OF NIFTY & BANK NIFTY FOR THE WEEK ENDING 24-12-21 This is a new weekly post/series where I will briefly capture the key highlights of the 2 leading indices. This post is supported by a video that takes you through the details of how I have arrived at the analysis. I encourage you to view the video as well since not everything can be captured in a document form. I hope that this effort would help the readers and viewers to get a crisp idea about what happened in the markets over a period of one week. Important - Although the markets are very hard to predict in the short term, the main issue presently faced is that even on an intraday basis, the markets have been extremely volatile. This may impact the traders who trade on an intraday basis. If you are one such trader, please be careful and assign top most priority to risk management. BANK NIFTY The comparison is done with 1-12 Numbers as the start of the month. EOD on 1-12-21 = 36364 EOD on 24-12-21 = 34857 up by -1507 points or -4.14% from 1-12-21 The highest level in the week ending 24-12-21 = 35477 on 23-12-21 The lowest level in the week ending 24-12-21 = 34018 on 20-12-21 Difference Highest - Lowest = 1459 points or 4.29% from the lowest level In the last one week, Bank Nifty has made a downward move of 761 points or 2.14% which is in continuation of the earlier week’s bearish sign. NIFTY The comparison is done with 1-12 Numbers as the start of the month. EOD on 1-12-21 = 17166 EOD on 24-12-21 = 17003 down by 163 points or 0.95% from 1-12-21 The highest level in the week ending 24-12-21 = 17155.60 on 24-12-21 The lowest level in the week ending 24-12-21 = 16410 on 27-12-21 Difference Highest - Lowest = 745 points or 4.54% from the lowest level In the last one week Nifty has made an up move of 18 points or 0.11% which potentially indicates a slowing down of selling pressure. FII - DII DATA: DEC 2021 FIIs = -33,271 Crores DIIs = 26.405 Crores Net is = -6,866 Crores There has been a slow down in the severity of selling by FII which may be attributable to the year end holidays and or a potential shift in their strategy. Only time will tell us what is the truth. Conclusion: On 24-12, FIIs have turned net sellers though by a mere 44 Crores. This is an unusual sight. When FIIs turn net sellers generally DIIs keep buying and when DIIs turn net sellers, FIIs buy. This has been the approach - the key point is whether this is likely to happen or DIIs may also join hands in the sell-off. SGX Nifty is as of the end of the week indicating a flat close and the UIS markets would open only on 27-12 after 24-12 holiday so the true feel of the sentiment would be known only on 28-12. BANK NIFTY In the sharp sell-off, the HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, SBIN, and Kotak Bank were brutally hammered and these have heavy weights on the index moves. Whereas ICICI Bank and to some extent SBIN have somewhat recovered, HDFC Bank, and Kotak Bank have failed to hold on to the higher levels. They have witnessed selling pressure - HDFC Bank below 1460 and Kotak Bank below 1790-1800. Unless these 2 banks clear the hard lines, Bank Nifty is likely to remain volatile having the path of least resistance on the downside. NIFTY The IT big neads and other IT heads of the Nifty 50 pack have helped Nifty throughout the week in getting back up from the valley of 16400. HDFC and Reliance are the biggest troubles for Nifty as these two have dragged Nifty by the collar and brought down. In addition to the above, the weakness in Bank Nifty as explained above has been an issue and would remain and Nifty may find it hard even if it goes up, to sustain and close the days in the coming week at higher levels. 17250+ on Nifty and 36000+ on Bank Nifty need to be held on to for a couple of days for the indices to have any chance of a good restoration of the bullish sentiment. Until then, even on a declining India Vix, the real volatility and choppiness on an intraday basis is more likely to continue. Here is the video link: Please feel free to comment/share your feedback as, like you, I am also a learner of the markets! And therefore, I have the right to be wrong on either side as no one can predict the moves. Happy Trading/Investing! Umesh 25-12-21
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Swing Trading Opportunities for the week beginning 15-11-21SWING TRADING WATCHLIST FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING 15-11-21 INTENT I will only be sharing the time frame and the scrip name. I will leave the trade basis aside as the intent is to engage the reader in learning the basics of finding good scrips. You can have a look at the charts and place your favorite indicators and check out if any of these fit your trade plan. Some readers feel that I am simply listing down several scrips so that if they go up I can claim so. This is not the case - I am not here to score any points. I am sharing my weekly analysis and if you like it, read it and if you do not agree, I am fine with that. ON MY WATCHLIST FOR THE COMING WEEK This is a weekly review of the available opportunities so my time frame for analysis moves from Daily to Weekly and from Hourly to Daily. Here are the likely candidates for the week - SECTORS LOOKING GOOD FOR LONG POSITIONS- Nifty 100 Nifty 200 Consumption FMCG IT WEEKLY TIME FRAME- FOR LONG POSITIONS - Nifty Spot at 18102.75 Adani Ports Asian Paints Britannia HCL Tech Hindalco Nestle TCS Wipro IDFC First Bank Damia Bharat Force Motors Hind Petro ICICI Pru Life IRCTC Jubl Food Naukri Sanofi Nazara As compared to the last week there are fewer opportunities as many of the sectors have already moved up during the week and some have become weak during the week. This means that as and when there is further buying in these sectors, Nifty may get a push-up. I may / may not take these trades as not every opportunity should / can be traded. I believe that it is better to help someone learn the technique of selecting good scrips than giving tips - in any case, I am not SEBI regd so I do not have the authority as well to do so. In case you are able to spot the setup and the trade basis, please do share so that together we can learn. Here is the Video Link: Thank you for your time and Happy Learning, 14-11--21 Disclaimer -- This post is shared for learning and educational purposes only and in no way acts as a recommendation. I am not a SEBI regd trader so please either decide your trades/investments on your own or consult your financial advisor before making any trades.
NSE:NAZARALong
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Nifty rebounds in style but ends below 17800NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -07-10-21 In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow. O 17810.55 H 17857.55 L 17763.80 C 17790.35 EOD +144.35 points /+-0.82% SGX Nifty @ 1735h 17847 / +25 points FII DII = It is a bit early for the data to be released. DIIs may have sold. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart A strong 150 point gap up opening and then it moved in a sideways range and as FTSE open neared, it headed higher but could not decisively cross 17850 even on a 5-minute chart for more than one candle. The expiry blues entered in the last hour and Nifty drifted towards 17800 and then broke the level as 17800 CE would have been written aggressively. It gave up most of the gains made during the day and closed below 17800. The daily chart indicates a Doji as the Open and Close prices were quite close. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS Top 5 Lifters contributed = 98 Top 5 Draggers contributed = 20 Net = +78 POSITIVES Auto and IT leaders took the lead and held Nifty higher. The supremacy was evident as even the HDFC twins could not drag Nifty as they may have liked to do. ICICI Bank closed above 700. Reliance held on to the greener zone. HDFC Bank held on to 1600 plus levels. NEGATIVES HDFC ended in red and is finding it hard to sustain closings above 2750. Except for ICICI Bank, all leading banks ended in the red and that is what prevented Bank Nifty from attempting a hit to 38000. TRADING RANGE FOR 8-10-21 Nifty 17600-650-700 is the support base. Resistance regrettably is at every nook and corner of the charts starting from 17800-820-850-900. Bank Nifty Support = 37200-400 appears to be a good support area. Resistance 37800-38000-38200. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS If you closely look at the OHLC numbers and intraday charts of the indices, you would realize that the moves for the day were such that they negated what happened yesterday. The indices are just around the levels where they were on EOD 5-10-21. This means that we are still not out of the woods. Tomorrow is the RBI policy so there may be some jerks experienced, however, in he recent times, the announcements have become a non-event. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 7-10-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
1
Was this a staged Closing of the Indices?NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -29-09-21 IN SUMMARY OHLC 17,657.95 17,781.75 17,608.15 17,711.30 Close = -37.3 / -0.21% H-L = 174 points VIX 18.84 / +1.61% FII DII: Data not available - likely to be negative. SGX NIFTY @1950h - 17683 / -23 points Likely open: Please read Insights at the end of the post. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 M Chart A strong gap-down of 90 points and then there was the usual bounce back to test the opening high and then a sell-off which threatened to go and breach 17600 levels but then came some active buying which resulted in the index recovering in a somewhat choppy way. It was only after 1300h that the index rallied and crossed 17750 and then came another sell-off which brought it below 17700 and then in a dramatic manner it was closed above 17700. The trading range was down by half than that of yesterday. NIFTY made a lower high, but a higher low and traded within the peak of yesterday’s close and yesterday’s lows. This is a consolidation before the monthly expiry. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS NIFTY LIFTERS NIFTY DRAGGERS SBI 18.00 HDFC 31.00 JSW STEEL 13.00 HDFC BANK 27.00 IOC 12.00 RELIANCE 21.00 POWERGRID 10.00 ICICI BANK 16.00 SUN PHARMA 10.00 KOTAK BANK 11.00 63.00 106.00 Lifter - Draggers = -43 POSITIVES NIFTY managed to close above 17700. NIFTY did not breach 17600 despite selling pressure and a retest attempt on the downside was made on multiple occasions. NEGATIVES When all the heavyweights go against the upward trend, there is going to be negativity and that is what spooked the indices. All key drivers were not in the mood to rise today and profit booking and or sell-off seems to have taken place ahead of expiry. VIX keeps rising indicating more wild moves. TRADING RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK: This remains as it is -- NIFTY 17500-18100 BANK NIFTY 37200-38500-800. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS As NIFTY was approaching its P Close at 17748, 17600 CE in which I was trading, also approached its P Close at 180. This is a rare coincidence that I have seen. Usually, Options tend to decay even during the day and here, 17600 CE remained intact despite a choppy AM session where the Index attempted to retest 17600 levels a couple of times and then showed weakness until about 1300h. However, on a closing basis, there is some variation in the NIFTY and the ITM CE deviation from the P Close. THis may be on account of the weighted average close. In my view, today’s close was staged as NIFTY topped out just around the closing highs of yesterday and from there it sold off to ensure that it ends below the P Close but above 17700. Despite FTSE up by 60 points, NIFTY ended in the red. This is surprising. Though FTSE and NIFTY cannot be compared but NIFTY should have ideally followed the cue and closed positive, but instead, it ended red and at 1925h, the SGX is showing -73 even when the US markets are in the green. Clearly, there is something that is beyond the ordinary eyes to see - i am carrying forward 17600 CE keeping global cues in mind and I could be completely wrong here but I going by what I believe is a mismatch. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 29-09-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:NIFTYLong
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
Nifty & Banknifty trend analysis with top stocks and imp levelsCompletely opposite to yesterday, where the gap down open saw tremendous buying, today, the gap up open was sold into with banks emerging weak. I take a look at the stock market using the 4-hour chart just to show how the #priceaction has been moving since the past few weeks. The top stocks of the Indian markets are also included. Are you bullish or bearish on NSE:NIFTY and NSE:BANKNIFTY right now? Important Nifty levels and Banknifty levels for tomorrow: Levels for Nifty: 15,596, 15,660,15,733 --- 15,750, 15,835 15,986 (don't want to pick tops) Levels for Banknifty: 34,130, 34,420, 34,640 --- 34,800, 35,011, 35,250, 35,340, 35,400, 35,529,
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by MarketsWithKR