HDFCBANK
HDFC Bank (Bearish Sequence)## We publish bearish sequence in hdfc bank & exactly it happen eventhough bank nifty is recovering but hdfc is not, you can see the chart below.
## Anyway HDFC bank is still developing M2 wave after which it will proceed for downward movement.
## Even though M3 failed but still Longterm wave is still bearish, so hdfc bank will fall again.
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Previous Long Term forecast
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Bank Nifty Medium Term Forecast
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Nifty price action 01.03.2024.The strong rebound from key support highlights elevated
buying demand that makes us retain support base at 21800 as
it is confluence of:
A. 61.8% retracement of current rally 2153 to 22300
is placed at 21823
B. Last week’s low is placed at 21875
C. Lower band of rising channel
As per chart next target would be 22400 and 22670 soon
28 Feb ’24 — BankNifty goes bearish, next stop 45399BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️
There is no doubt that the stance on Banknifty is anything but bearish. Even though we started quite okay, we quickly gave up the gains. After 10.23 the intensity of selling was quite strong. And once we came back to the bearish channel the depth of the RED candles kept on increasing. Banks were the first to react to the bad news along with RELIANCE. NiftyIT was still going on strong and was at the GREEN end of the turf. In fact, NiftyIT went into RED only after 11.43.
4mts chart
The double top M pattern and the bearish channel are better explainable on the higher timeframe. BankNifty’s next support comes at 45399, the momentum for the Bears will really pick up if we are to break that by tomorrow. That would also mean we are going back to the levels as of 18th Jan 2024. We are also quite sure, that could be a pain area for many traders who would have taken a monthly position.
HDFC Bank was very special today, it hit a low of 1405 by 10.59 - but the recovery after that was more than amazing. Till 14.27, things were not looking that bad either. However, the final 1 hour ensured that the selling on this counter was far from over. HDFCBK has a higher weight on Nifty50 than RELIANCE. Also it commands 2 other indices - BankNifty and FinNifty also. So if this elephant starts rolling, it would be a treat to watch for the BEARS.
63mts chart
Algo Trading
Our algo trades ended today with a gain of 15606. This is the 3rd day that we have exited the Algos prematurely. Today, we closed the trades @ 10.07 as my gut feeling said something was fishy.
21 Feb ’24 — BankNifty is bullish as long as its > 46886 ⬆️⬆️⬆️BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️
Although BankNifty created a double top (M pattern) on the 4 mts time frame today, the stance is still bullish. The reason we did not change the stance for BN even though we downgraded N50 was that BN did not even test the support level today. Despite the selling pressure on all other counters, the Banks did not attempt to re-enter the bearish channel nor break the trendline. Ideally, it had to fall below 46833 to go into a bearish zone and today’s low was 46886. We know a 50pts margin is not that adequate, but when we switch to a higher time frame chart - you may agree with us.
4mts chart
If you look at the chart below, even after adjacent RED candles, BN is still above the blue trend line. Tomorrow’s opening 63 minutes is very crucial as the major reason why BN did not participate in the fall today could be attributed to expiry day trades. When the selling came, the volumes of the top 4 banks had spiked accidentally revealing that it could be the start of something big. We guess the torch-bearer status of BankNifty has to be kept on the back burner as NiftyIT is calling the shots now. February is proving to be equally volatile as January 2024. Both the indices are now hunting for the stop losses and it seems like the ATM non-directional traders are going through another drawdown phase.
For tomorrow we wish to start the day with a bullish bias and not get into any aggressive bets. Will wait for the first 63mts candle to appear and then take things from there. If we stay below the blue trend line - the status would be changed to neutral immediately.
63mts chart
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Algo Trading
Our algo trades ended today with gains of 11395. We booked the profits early i.e. by 11.34. Would have to backtest and find out tomorrow if our decision to prematurely exit was worth it or not. Yesterday also we exited prematurely and the backtests proved we made the right choice.
20 Feb ’24 — Stance revised to bullish for BankNifty ⬆️⬆️⬆️BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️
Yesterday we discussed the possibility of HDFC Bank making a move and quite fortunately that came true today. We rallied an impressive 769pts ~ 1.66% today to take out the first resistance (bearish trendline break). Would you believe the elephant jumped 2.63% today along with AXIS Bank 2.41%, Kotak Bank 1.8%. ICICI Bank & SBI was not that stimulated today, even then we managed to rally hard today. Notice the blue-encircled regions where we spent time today trying to break out. The momentum from 14.03 to close was the main and the only reason we had that break through today, otherwise we would have spent the time following the resistance slope.
4mts chart
On the higher timeframe, the break above the bearish channel is loud and clear. But we are below the 47465 resistance line (orange color). Since we have an expiry tomorrow and because BN attained the bullish stance today, we expect those levels to be tested and broken by tomorrow itself. Being in trading, we cannot always remain optimistic and expect things to happen our way - that's why we engineer stop losses and fix reversal levels. In case something like that happens tomorrow, we will see if the bears are keeping BN below the blue channel line - if yes, we will reverse our stance back to neutral and wait for the next trigger.
63mts chart
Algo Trading
Our algo trades ended today with a gain of Rs6904. We stopped the algo at 14.24 as a breakout was looking imminent. We will have to backtest it tomorrow to see if it was the right decision.
HDFC Bank: (Long) Entry-1384 Stop-loss-1362 Target-1513
Foundation: HDFC Bank is one of the flagship companies of India and has been considered as one of the few institution of national importance by Govt. of India. It is also one of the leading private bank in the country.
Technical:
1. If we use Anchored VWAP(@23-03-2020) on weekly timeframe on the price chart of this stock, we will notice that price took support of it on 13-06-2022 and bounced back to continue its uptrend. Now, if you look the chart on weekly time frame, it has formed a bullish hammer candlestick on this VWAP, from which it is expected to take support.
2. Now, when we zero down to 30min. timeframe the stock has started the formation of higher highs and higher lows which is a good sign for reversal.
3. I am expecting price of the stock to take a deep pull back and then reverse for good and continue it's uptrend.
For Swing, target could be as per risk:reward
For Investment, target could be 1513, 1660, 1811, 1903
13 Feb ’24 BankNifty is still bearish even after a 927pts rallyBankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️
BankNifty had a lot of anomalies today. Firstly, the start was slightly on the higher side and BN did not fall, unlike Nifty. We ended up defending yesterday’s swing low which came as a big surprise. You might remember, we had a bearish call for BN today and the fact that the downside move was not even attempted came as a shocker.
4mts chart
Secondly, BN ended up rallying 927pts ~ 2.07% intraday and was still unable to break the 45399 resistance. If you ask us, it did break the resistance on the 4mts & 16mts chart. But on the 63mts chart, it is still unbroken. ICICI Bank & AXIS Bank were in tremendous form today rallying 2.38% and 2.3% respectively. The bulk of the gains today came from these 2 counters. HDFC Bank showed some intent to break through the 1400 level but was cut short.
63mts chart
We are drawing a new trend line (purple color) - A bearish line. The difference here is that it is cutting through the candles on many occasions. Since it is not the perfect way to draw the line, we may even take it off shortly. The only reason we drew it was to plot the course BN is currently sailing. Tomorrow being an expiry day, we hope the bearish momentum will pick up the pace and the levels of 44542 and 44068 will get broken. The new purple line will serve as a dynamic resistance tomorrow.
Algo Trading
Our BankNifty algo trades ended today with a loss of 560 points.