Bajaj Finance and Magic number 35 | Price action studies I daily make educational content videos on Financial markets
Historicalanalysis
Historic correctionsHello all.!!
I hope you are in the house waiting for news of control of the NOVEL COVID-19, and also thinking why my portfolio is getting deteriorating.
As stock markets touching new 52-weeks lows everyday, Do you know that the highest fall in stock market was in 2008, which was 65% from it's peak. That was because of financial crisis: companies do not have money to pay to employees and banks gets bankrupt so entire financial system gets imbalanced.
As of now COVID-19 is doing the same, but at present money is not an issue. Let's look at the cycle.
1. Consumer stops consumption as they have lots of restrictions right now(not to travel, stay home)
2. Company stops or reduces manufacturing which leads to supply shortage(at present companies does not reducing it's staff but if in future it requires then they will do).
3. Due to supply shortage sellers are not getting enough material for supply and couldn't earn much (inspite of earning they have to bear the interests of loans they have taken, rent of the offices/house etc).
4. because of reduction in earnings they may start redemption of their savings and will keep buying stuffs as low as possible or as needed as possible.
5. Due to this companies will not get enough customer/consumers and sells will drop significantly. That may lead to step towards recession/economic crisis.
6. Because of less consumption government's GST collection will reduce, which will put government into another headaches. For that reason government may increase taxes.
But because of this all should we panic and sell all ours mutual funds/stocks?
It's really bullish idea to sell at this level , don't you think so? This is the time to add more gems in your portfolio which you were thinking it's too expensive(But let the market bottom out: means at least comes to discount of 50%). This is just my point of perception, other's perception might be different. Tell me in comments what you think about this, and like if it seems helpful.
I've plotted the historic stock market crash from 1991 to 2020, and it's good news that fall remains under 50 to 65% fall.
As on december nifty had mad high at 12430, 50% fall comes at value 6215 which might appear as short term support for nifty.
Disclaimer:
I am not a registered investment, legal or tax advisor or a broker/dealer. All investment/financial opinions expressed by me are from the personal research and experience. These are intended as educational material.
GBPUSD Trading lookout from historical dataFX:GBPUSD is repeating some sort of structure and moves from a consolidation region. A further look into that to see if it does play out like that or not.
Nifty - Historically bears win in the month of Sept/Oct/NovSeptember/October/November month has always been a month of bears.
This year Nifty 1500 (~10%) points fall in September/October.
Lets look at last 10 years data on SEPT/OCT/NOV
2017 - 10150 - 9650 = ~ 500 (~5%)
2016 - SEPT/OCT - 8900 to 7950 (~ 11%)
~1000 points fall
2015 - Nifty fell from 8900 to 6900 - Whole year almost ~
~2000 points. (~22%)
- OCT/NOV - 8400 T0 7600 -
~ 800 points (~9.5%)
2014 - SEPT/Oct 8150 to 7750 - ~ 400 points fall (4.90%)
2013 & 2012 - No big fall in the Sept/Oct/Nov
2011 = 5350 - 4550
~ 800 points (~15%)
2009 & 2010 - No big fall in the Sept/Oct/Nov
2008 - Nifty fell from 4500 to 2500 = 2000 points fall (~45%)
