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ICICIBANK

FY21-22 Swing Trade Idea #155: Long on ICICIBANK This is a public swing trade idea (other private ideas accessible through website) and is only for Learning and observational purpose. Please understand your risk and take full responsibility of your actions. We would comment on any further updates on our entry, targets and stop-loss on this idea, so make sure to follow if you want to get further updates. Our objective to help anyone who wants to learn technical analysis using charts. You can post your queries in comment section here and we will try to answer asap.
NSE:ICICIBANKLong
by onerighttrade
2
Was this a staged Closing of the Indices?NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -29-09-21 IN SUMMARY OHLC 17,657.95 17,781.75 17,608.15 17,711.30 Close = -37.3 / -0.21% H-L = 174 points VIX 18.84 / +1.61% FII DII: Data not available - likely to be negative. SGX NIFTY @1950h - 17683 / -23 points Likely open: Please read Insights at the end of the post. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 M Chart A strong gap-down of 90 points and then there was the usual bounce back to test the opening high and then a sell-off which threatened to go and breach 17600 levels but then came some active buying which resulted in the index recovering in a somewhat choppy way. It was only after 1300h that the index rallied and crossed 17750 and then came another sell-off which brought it below 17700 and then in a dramatic manner it was closed above 17700. The trading range was down by half than that of yesterday. NIFTY made a lower high, but a higher low and traded within the peak of yesterday’s close and yesterday’s lows. This is a consolidation before the monthly expiry. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS NIFTY LIFTERS NIFTY DRAGGERS SBI 18.00 HDFC 31.00 JSW STEEL 13.00 HDFC BANK 27.00 IOC 12.00 RELIANCE 21.00 POWERGRID 10.00 ICICI BANK 16.00 SUN PHARMA 10.00 KOTAK BANK 11.00 63.00 106.00 Lifter - Draggers = -43 POSITIVES NIFTY managed to close above 17700. NIFTY did not breach 17600 despite selling pressure and a retest attempt on the downside was made on multiple occasions. NEGATIVES When all the heavyweights go against the upward trend, there is going to be negativity and that is what spooked the indices. All key drivers were not in the mood to rise today and profit booking and or sell-off seems to have taken place ahead of expiry. VIX keeps rising indicating more wild moves. TRADING RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK: This remains as it is -- NIFTY 17500-18100 BANK NIFTY 37200-38500-800. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS As NIFTY was approaching its P Close at 17748, 17600 CE in which I was trading, also approached its P Close at 180. This is a rare coincidence that I have seen. Usually, Options tend to decay even during the day and here, 17600 CE remained intact despite a choppy AM session where the Index attempted to retest 17600 levels a couple of times and then showed weakness until about 1300h. However, on a closing basis, there is some variation in the NIFTY and the ITM CE deviation from the P Close. THis may be on account of the weighted average close. In my view, today’s close was staged as NIFTY topped out just around the closing highs of yesterday and from there it sold off to ensure that it ends below the P Close but above 17700. Despite FTSE up by 60 points, NIFTY ended in the red. This is surprising. Though FTSE and NIFTY cannot be compared but NIFTY should have ideally followed the cue and closed positive, but instead, it ended red and at 1925h, the SGX is showing -73 even when the US markets are in the green. Clearly, there is something that is beyond the ordinary eyes to see - i am carrying forward 17600 CE keeping global cues in mind and I could be completely wrong here but I going by what I believe is a mismatch. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 29-09-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right. ---
NSE:NIFTYLong
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
BANK NIFTY tears apart 37K, Lifts NIFTY past 17600NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -16-09-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 17539.2 / 17644.6 / 17510.45 / 17629.5 H-L = 134 points VIX 14.41 / +4.95% FII DII: +826 Crores Likely open: Flat to mild positive. All eyes would be on BANK NIFTY - whether it can hold higher levels and attain ATH as the week draws to a close. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 Minutes Chart A mild gap-up open was immediately sold in to and the P Close was retested but then, NIFTY never looked back though the upside move was quite choppy when compared to BANK NIFTY. The daily chart indicates that there was a strong buying that led the rise to the levels above 17600 even though the range was somewhat less when compared to BANK NIFTY. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters RELIANCE 47 ITC 34 ICICI BANK 24 SBI 23 HDFC BANK 15 TOTAL 143 The Draggers TCS 15 BPCL 12 INFOSYS 09 GRASIM 05 JSW STEEL 05 TOTAL 46 Lifter - Draggers = +97 BPCL turned ex-dividend so the fall. It is best to ignore the same. Once we do that, the strong upmove is explained easily. POSITIVES NIFTY closed at a new ATH and also hit a new ATH. And both are above 17600. BANK NIFTY tore apart 37000-37200 resistance with fury and was responsible for lifting NIFTY along with RELIANCE. BANK NIFTY ended on a new ATH and so did SBIN. FIIs have bought in good numbers so the momentum is likely to continue in the short term. NEGATIVES INFOSYS keeps coming down. HDFC made a lower close than yesterday. VIX has gone up by almost 5%. TRADING RANGE FOR 17-09-21 17300-17350 is the new support base. For the resistances, we will have to let a few days go by to see how and where it gets formed. BANK NIFTY tore apart the barriers in typical style and is now facing resistance at 37800-38000-38200. INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS And as mentioned yesterday, the Banking giants roared and in style today to tear apart the resistance of 37000-37200 and the short covering may have fueled further upside in the index. The fury was evident as in the AM session, even when HDFC BANK was in the red, BANK NIFTY kept rising gradually and held on to the opening low. For the last 2-3 days I have been observing that HDFC BANK is unable to make a significant impact on the indices. I am not sure if the weight has changed or the other members of the indices group have gathered all-around support. This is a good sign as any dependency on one or two scrips is not a good sign from index strength POV. A few days ago, I made an entry into IDEA at 7.3 and then gradually added few shares with every rise. Today cumulative ROI was seen at 43%! On a scrip that had trouble all over at that time, but my decision was very simple - MA-based. So the next time when your process tells you to go long/short, just go ahead. Eventually, following the right process will lead you to the right outcome. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 16-09-21 NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
2
5 days in a row, Nifty ends FlatNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -13-09-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 17363.55 / 17378.35 / 17269.15 / 17355.3 H-L = 77 points VIX 14.03 / +0.65% FII DII: +860 Crores Likely open: Positive Gap-up provided it is able to stay above today’s close for an hour or so. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 5 Minutes Chart A gap-down open with an attempt to cross the P Close was immediately sold in to and within the next hour, the day’s low was hit. NIFTY breached 17300 with relative ease and found support around intraday pivot points of 17274. The relief rally was steady and was held on to by NIFTY. One more indecisive close on the Daily charts. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters TCS 14 HDFC 08 BAJAJ FINSERV 07 KOTAK BANK 05 HINDALCO 05 TOTAL 49 The Laggards RELIANCE 44 ICICI BANK 20 HDFC BANK 13 HUL 04 ADANI PORTS 02 TOTAL 83 Lifter - Draggers = -34 POSITIVES NIFTY closed above 17350. INFOSYS recovered from the lows of the day to end flat. HDFC is looking good around 2850. MARUTI seems to be witnessing renewed buying interest. FIIs have bought in excess of 1400 Crores. NEGATIVES RELIANCE single-handedly pulled NIFTY down and two of the heavyweights of BANK NIFTY were badly influenced by the negativity and they too joined the draggers team. BANK NIFTY closed below 36500. HDFC BANK is experiencing unusual weakness which is leading to nervousness in ICICI BANK as well. TRADING RANGE FOR 14-09-21 17000-17200 is the support base.17400-450-500 may be the resistance area for NIFTY. BANK NIFTY support stays at 36200-400 and resistance at 37000-37200. INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS It is strange indeed that around ATH levels, the path of least resistance for NIFTY is downward. One of the worrying things is that now NIFTY does not face strong buying support around 17300 and quickly drifts towards 17250. The tendency to make lower lows with a flat closing is not what one would expect in a bull market especially around the ATH levels. FTSE was quite positive and yet we ended in the red - another instance where our indices have chosen to ignore the global cues even when they were positive. RELIANCE made a low around the FIB level of the daily charts. If the level is held, NIFTY may well be able to catch up soon. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 13-09-21 P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
RELIANCE & INFOSYS Save the day for NIFTY NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -03-09-21 IN SUMMARY O / H / L / C 17399.35 / 17429.55 / 17345.55 / 17377.8 H-L = +84 points VIX 15.11 / +3.92% FII DII: -42 Crores Likely open: Unable to read - as today US markets are also closed so indices may consolidate again unless a heavyweight does some interesting moves. CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS NIFTY crossed 17400 as well in the first half an hour but failed to hold on to the same. NIFTY ended the day on yet another ATH close. A higher high and a higher low has been created. On the Daily charts a Doji has been formed indicating indecision. NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS The Weight Lifters RELIANCE 28 INFOSYS 23 WIPRO 11 HCL TECH 06 GRASIM 03 TOTAL 71 The Draggers HDFC BANK 10 ICICI BANK 05 KOTAK BANK 04 IOC 03 ITC 02 TOTAL 24 Lifter - Draggers = +47 The towering presence of RELIANCE & INFOSYS changed the fortunes for NIFTY. POSITIVES INFOSYS has made a strong recovery and is now coming close to the ATH levels hit a few days ago. RELIANCE closed at ATH of 2400+. NIFTY hit a new ATH above 17400. NIFTY closed in the green despite pressure from BANK NIFTY. NEGATIVES HDFC BANK, ICICI BANK & KOTAK BANK dragged BANK NIFTY and therefore NIFTY as well. BANK NIFTY closed near the day’s low and below 36600. FII DII is net negative of 42 Crores. BANK NIFTY could not go closer to 37000. TRADING RANGE FOR WB 07-09-21 17000-17200 is the support base. I do not know what the upper levels may be. BANK NIFTY support stays at 36200-400 and resistance at 37000-37200. INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS BANK NIFTY trading range was 369 points only which means that the index is getting ready for a big move on either side. It has the tendency to surprise the participants so we will need to wait and watch. NIFTY ended in the green only because of RELIANCE & INFOSYS. RELIANCE fell sharply from the day’s high of 2480+ to end at 2425. RELIANCE and BANK NIFTY hold the key for tomorrow. What do you feel about this? Thank you, and Happy Money Making! Umesh 06-09-21 P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well. NOTE -- This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title as well as its contents can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
NSE:NIFTY
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
1