25 Jul ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty - Start of a bearish trend?

Banknifty’s movement today has given a slight hope for the bears to sharpen their claws. Primarily it breached the 45850-45830 levels thrice today in the 5mts candle. I did mention in the report yesterday that I wish to go short if the 45830 levels are taken out.
The reversal of 308pts from 13.40 to 14.55 would have tested the bear’s conviction level, but the price action if read as a whole is much more encouraging. In fact banknifty fell 1.15% ~ 532pts and the recovery was only 0.68%~ 308pts (A bit less than the 61.8% Fibonacci levels). Whereas Nifty50 and FinNifty recovered almost 90%.
Nifty was already in a bearish trend, so the move on banknifty is definitely suggesting further reinforcements towards the south direction. HDFCBK was putting up a rocky vs apollo creed fight today, untiring & unbeatable. This lone wolf was responsible for preventing deep cuts. ICICI Bank was toggling between green and red and finally settled in green. Axis bank had a good recovery in the 13.40 to 14.55 period - but still ended in red. And Kotak was just continuing from the trend yesterday.
I would prefer to go short on banknifty unless the 46000 level is taken out with momentum.

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