27 Jul ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty - Bears are getting ready 🐻
Banknifty Monthly Analysis
Banknifty has moved up 1353pts ~ 3.05% this expiry month, approx 0.7% lesser than Nifty’s movement. One possible reason was the slight retracement between 07 to 14 July whereas Nifty had managed that week pretty well.
BankNifty Weekly Analysis
Banknifty scored over Nifty during the weekly price move wherein BN lost only 0.85% ~ 391pts compared to 1.34% loss in Nifty. It was for this reason that we had gone short in Nifty last friday and did not do anything on BN.
BankNifty Daily Analysis
The day started quite boring today, we had a gap up opening due to which all the options premium were absolutely dead. I started expiry trades with Nifty options as they had more air left in it vs bank nifty. But as soon as the fall started, the CE premiums were jumping exponentially. This was true for Nifty options also. To get a favourable price I had to wait till 12.45 after which I switched to banknifty options.
The CE premiums remained unusually high 14.15 after which they started dropping. While all this happened India VIX did not swing that much - remember we even had a -10% day this week on volatility. Probably VIX thinks the downward move is again a positional one & will be done and dusted by tomorrow?
We see a M pattern i.e double top right at the all time high levels. Such a pattern cannot be left unnoticed and today’s move may just give it more relevance. On a 1hr TF we had all red candles today except the last one(which had only 15mts in it)
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Please comment with your thoughts, opinion or bias, I will respond with mine!
Banknifty has moved up 1353pts ~ 3.05% this expiry month, approx 0.7% lesser than Nifty’s movement. One possible reason was the slight retracement between 07 to 14 July whereas Nifty had managed that week pretty well.
BankNifty Weekly Analysis
Banknifty scored over Nifty during the weekly price move wherein BN lost only 0.85% ~ 391pts compared to 1.34% loss in Nifty. It was for this reason that we had gone short in Nifty last friday and did not do anything on BN.
BankNifty Daily Analysis
The day started quite boring today, we had a gap up opening due to which all the options premium were absolutely dead. I started expiry trades with Nifty options as they had more air left in it vs bank nifty. But as soon as the fall started, the CE premiums were jumping exponentially. This was true for Nifty options also. To get a favourable price I had to wait till 12.45 after which I switched to banknifty options.
The CE premiums remained unusually high 14.15 after which they started dropping. While all this happened India VIX did not swing that much - remember we even had a -10% day this week on volatility. Probably VIX thinks the downward move is again a positional one & will be done and dusted by tomorrow?
We see a M pattern i.e double top right at the all time high levels. Such a pattern cannot be left unnoticed and today’s move may just give it more relevance. On a 1hr TF we had all red candles today except the last one(which had only 15mts in it)
...
Please comment with your thoughts, opinion or bias, I will respond with mine!
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