XAUUSD (M30) | Will Gold Sweep Demand Before the Next Expansion?Gold remains trapped beneath a well-respected descending trendline, keeping the broader intraday order flow tilted to the downside. Despite the recent recovery, price has yet to reclaim the previous swing high, suggesting buyers are still struggling to regain control.
From an ICT / Smart Money perspective, price is currently reacting around a bullish Order Block near 4,000-4,005, while a stronger First Demand rests around 3,985-3,990. A liquidity sweep into these zones would be consistent with institutional accumulation before any meaningful expansion.
Overhead, the Premium FVG around 4,030-4,035 aligns with the descending trendline and remains the primary supply area. Unless this confluence is decisively broken, rallies may continue to serve as liquidity collection rather than confirmed bullish continuation.
Trading Scenarios
Bullish: A sweep into 4,000-3,990, followed by a strong MSS/CHOCH, could open the path toward 4,030, then 4,060.
Bearish: Failure to defend the Order Block would expose the deeper demand below 3,990, extending the corrective decline.
With a relatively light U.S. economic calendar today, price action may remain technically driven. Watch for liquidity grabs around the marked institutional zones rather than chasing impulsive moves.
Key Levels
🟢 Demand: 4,000-4,005
🟢 Major Demand: 3,985-3,990
🔴 Premium FVG: 4,030-4,035
📉 Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish above demand, bearish below 3,985.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and reflects an ICT/Smart Money framework, not financial advice. 
Long
Short
Long 
Short
Gold H4: Sell the RetracementGold (XAUUSD) remains in a clear bearish market structure on the H4 timeframe after creating a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. Price is currently attempting a corrective pullback toward the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone (4,051–4,073), which aligns with a fresh supply/resistance area.
This confluence creates a high-probability rejection zone where sellers may regain control.
Key Technical Levels
Resistance Zone: 4,051 – 4,073 (0.5–0.618 Fibonacci + supply)
Major Resistance: 4,125 – 4,160
Current Price: Around 4,028
Demand Zone: 3,945 – 3,965
Bearish Target: 3,908
Trading Scenario
🔹 Primary Bias: Bearish
Expect price to retrace into the 4,051–4,073 resistance area.
Watch for bearish confirmation such as:
Bearish engulfing candle
Pin bar rejection
Lower high formation
Break of minor bullish structure
If sellers step in, price could decline toward the 3,945–3,965 demand zone.
A confirmed break below demand may accelerate the move toward 3,908.
Invalidation
A sustained H4 close above 4,073, followed by acceptance above the resistance zone, would weaken the bearish outlook and could open the path toward the 4,125–4,160 resistance area.
Conclusion
The current setup favors selling rallies rather than chasing price lower. The 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci retracement offers a strong confluence zone for potential short entries, while the nearby demand zone remains the key support to monitor before a possible continuation toward 3,908. Short 
XAUUSD H1 Technical AnalysisHead and Shoulders & Elliott Wave Convergence
Gold is currently exhibiting a definitive trend reversal signal following a sustained bullish run. This analysis combines classical chart patterns with Elliott Wave theory to outline the high-probability path forward.
Head and Shoulders Pattern (H&S)
The H&S structure is clearly visible on the current timeframe, signaling buyer exhaustion:
Left Shoulder: Formed around the 4,730 level.
Head: Peaked at 4,760, where significant selling pressure was encountered.
Right Shoulder: Has completed a retest of the 4,750 zone and is now showing signs of rejection.
Neckline: Currently situated between 4,660 – 4,670. A decisive break below this line will confirm the bearish reversal.
Elliott Wave Perspective
The price action is entering a corrective phase, currently transitioning into a 5-wave impulsive bearish structure:
Waves (1) & (2): Completed, establishing the peak and a minor corrective bounce.
Wave (3): Expected to be the most aggressive expansion wave, targeting the "Buy Scalping" zone near 4,630 – 4,640.
Wave (4): A projected technical pullback to retest overhead supply.
Wave (5): The final leg lower, aiming for the "Liquidity Strong" zone at 4,550 – 4,560.
Key Institutional Levels
FVG Sell Zone: The 4,700 – 4,720 range serves as a critical resistance. This is the optimal "Sell on Strength" area if a relief rally occurs.
Sell-Side Liquidity: The 4,661 level represents a major liquidity pool. A sustained close below this point is likely to accelerate the downward momentum.
Liquidity Strong: The 4,550 area is a high-confluence zone for buyers and serves as the primary target for the completed cycle.
Trading Strategy
Bias: Bearish / Sell on Rallies
Sell
Primary Entry: Sell within the FVG Zone (4,700 – 4,715) on a corrective bounce.
Breakout Entry: Sell Stop below the Neckline 4,660
Take Profit: TP1 at 4,635 (Scalp target), TP2 at 4,560
Stop Loss: Above the Right Shoulder peak at 4,755
Buy Scalping:
Counter-trend scalps should only be considered at 4,635 or 4,555, contingent on clear price rejection and lower timeframe confirmations. Short 
Long 
XAUUSD – Wave 5 forming as macro pressure lowersGold is not just moving — it’s transitioning into a late-stage impulsive structure.
Recent data shows the Fed’s unrealized losses have narrowed to $844.2B, down significantly from $1.06T. While this doesn’t directly shift monetary policy, it signals reduced systemic pressure — creating a more stable backdrop for risk assets and gold to continue trending structurally.
Market Structure & Elliott Wave
Price has completed a clean impulsive sequence from the bottom:
Wave (1) → (2) → (3) expansion confirmed
Wave (4) formed a controlled pullback within structure
Current price is developing Wave (5)
The structure remains bullish as long as price holds above the channel support.
Fibonacci Confluence
Wave (4) respected the 0.5 – 0.618 retracement zone
Current expansion aligns toward the 0.236 extension (≈ 5,100)
This level acts as a psychological + technical resistance
This confluence strengthens the probability of a final push higher before any major correction.
Key Zones
Buy Zone (Wave 5 continuation): ~4,700 – 4,750
Mid resistance: ~4,970
Final target (Wave 5): ~5,100
Scenario Planning
Primary scenario:
Price holds the buy zone → continues channel expansion → completes Wave (5) toward 5,100.
Alternative scenario:
Failure below channel support → deeper correction before continuation.
Kelly Perspective
Kelly_Koou_Gold doesn’t chase tops.
We follow structure, wave logic, and confirmation.
Wave 5 is where profits are made — but also where discipline matters most. Long 
Long
Long 
XAUUSD: Gold correcting in bearish trendHello everyone, here is my view on the current XAUUSD setup.
Market Analysis
Gold is currently showing a short-term recovery, but the broader structure still suggests that this is only a corrective move within an existing bearish leg, not a confirmed reversal yet.
On the chart, price is reacting back into the 4753–4760 sell zone, which is a key resistance area after the recent decline. This zone is important because it marks the upper boundary of the current recovery and may become the point where selling pressure returns.
What stands out here is that the market is not breaking into a fresh bullish trend. Instead, it is moving sideways-to-higher inside a relatively tight range after the drop, which often reflects a pause or correction before the next directional move. In this case, the structure still leans bearish unless buyers can clearly break above the overhead resistance.
Below the current price, the chart highlights a critical liquidity zone around 4580–4608. This is the main support area to watch if gold starts rolling over from resistance. A move back into this zone would fit the idea that the current rebound is only temporary and that the market may still be preparing for another leg lower.
Even deeper, the 4554 level remains the next major downside reference if the liquidity zone fails to hold. So for now, the technical structure suggests that gold is still trading inside a correction, while the broader short-term pressure remains tilted to the downside.
Key Price Areas to Watch
Current resistance / sell zone: 4753–4760
Current price area: around 4754
Critical liquidity zone below: 4580–4608
Next downside support: 4554
My Scenario & Strategy
My preferred scenario is to treat the current rise as a corrective rebound inside a bearish structure.
As long as XAUUSD remains capped below the 4753–4760 resistance zone, I still favor the idea that this move may lose momentum and rotate lower again. If sellers respond from this area, the first downside objective would be the critical liquidity zone around 4580–4608.
If bearish pressure continues building after that, gold could extend lower toward 4554, which becomes the next important support to watch.
However, if price breaks cleanly above the current sell zone and starts holding above it, the correction would become stronger than expected, and the bearish continuation view would need to be reassessed.
For now, gold still looks like it is correcting inside a broader short-term decline, so I prefer staying cautious on the upside until the market proves otherwise. Short 
Gold weak recovery; another drop possible?Gold is showing a recovery from the recent sell-off, but the structure suggests this move may only be a corrective pullback rather than a true reversal.
After the sharp decline, price has formed a short-term bullish leg; however, it is now approaching a key sell zone near 4680–4700, where multiple confluences are present.
Market structure overview
The broader context still reflects a bearish-to-neutral transition.
Price remains below the descending resistance trendline, and the recent upside move lacks strong continuation momentum.
This creates a typical scenario where the market rallies into supply before continuing lower.
Key zones to watch
Sell zone: 4680 – 4700 → strong resistance + trendline confluence
Mid support: 4583 → short-term reaction level
Intraday buy zones: 4553 / 4453 → liquidity-based support
Major downside target: ~4000 → sell-side liquidity
Primary scenario (Bearish continuation)
If gold fails to break and hold above the 4680–4700 resistance zone, we may see a rejection forming at this level.
That rejection would confirm this move as a pullback within a larger bearish structure, opening the path for a continuation lower.
In this case:
First downside reaction may occur around 4583
If broken, price could accelerate toward 4450 zone
Extended move may aim for sell-side liquidity near 4000
Alternative scenario (Invalidation)
If price manages to break above 4700 and hold, this would invalidate the bearish setup and signal a potential shift toward bullish continuation.
However, until that happens, upside should be treated cautiously.
Cecilia’s view
Right now, gold is in a classic corrective phase.
The recovery looks clean, but it lacks the strength needed to confirm a full reversal.
For me, the focus is simple:
Watch how price reacts at 4680–4700
Look for weakness, not strength
Follow the rejection, not the hype
Final thought
Markets often move in waves — and this looks like a pullback before continuation.
Patience here is key.
Let price reach the zone, observe the reaction, and then follow the structure. Short 
Gold Stays Heavy Under Dollar PressureGold Stays Under Pressure as Dollar Strength Keeps the Medium-Term Bias Heavy
Gold remains in a fragile medium-term structure after the latest sharp selloff, with price still struggling to rebuild above key recovery levels.
The broader tone has turned heavier as the US dollar continues to recover, while spot gold has already seen a deep intraday drop, showing that defensive demand is being outweighed by macro pressure for now.
Trend Pulse
From a structural point of view, the chart still favours weakness.
The recent rebound from the lower zone is only a corrective recovery at this stage, not a confirmed bullish reversal. Price is holding above the immediate base for now, but it is still trading below the stronger overhead resistance cluster.
The wave structure on the chart also suggests that gold may still be working inside a broader bearish sequence, with the current bounce behaving more like a temporary recovery before the next major decision.
Key Price Territories
The technical map is quite clear here:
Immediate reaction level: around 4,587
First resistance: 4,530 - 4,588
Buy-zone liquidity: around 4,380 - 4,400
Deeper buy scalping zone: near 4,097
Psychological medium-term support: around 3,700
As long as price remains below the upper recovery zone, rallies may continue to face selling pressure.
If the market loses the 4,380 - 4,400 area again, then the structure opens the door for a deeper move toward 4,097, with the broader downside path still exposing the 3,700 region in the medium term.
Fundamental Layer
The macro backdrop is now adding pressure to gold rather than helping it stabilise.
The US dollar index has pushed back above the key psychological area, and that creates a more difficult environment for precious metals. At the same time, a sharp decline in spot gold shows that the market is not yet in a stable accumulation phase. Instead, capital is still reacting to stronger dollar momentum and a firmer macro tone.
In simple terms, the dollar recovery is reducing gold’s upside flexibility and making rebounds less convincing.
Structure Read
This is the key Jasper view:
Gold is not in a clean recovery trend yet.
It is in a bearish medium-term structure with corrective rebounds.
That means upside moves can still happen, especially into local resistance, but those rallies should be treated carefully unless price can reclaim the higher resistance band with strong follow-through.
For now, the market still looks more likely to:
rebound into overhead supply,
fail to sustain strength,
and remain exposed to another leg lower if support gives way again.
Jasper’s Take
Gold is trying to stabilise, but the broader medium-term picture still leans bearish while the dollar remains firm.
Resistance: 4,530 - 4,588
Buy-zone liquidity: 4,380 - 4,400
Deeper support: 4,097
Psychological downside zone: 3,700
The clean read here is simple:
gold may still produce short-term rebounds, but unless buyers reclaim higher resistance properly, the medium-term structure continues to favour downside pressure. Short 
Gold Approaching Key Weekly SupportXAUUSD D1: Gold Enters a Critical Weekly Support Zone Ahead of Next Week
Gold is moving into next week from a highly sensitive area. The daily chart shows price sitting near an important support base after a strong correction, while the broader structure still remains fragile. The key question now is whether buyers can stabilize the market from current levels, or whether gold will extend lower before a stronger rebound appears.
Fundamental backdrop
The macro picture remains mixed for gold.
On one side, geopolitical tension is still unresolved, which keeps safe-haven demand alive in the background and supports the case for higher volatility next week. On the other side, the broader monetary backdrop remains restrictive, which continues to support the US Dollar and limit upside in non-yielding assets like gold.
That combination matters. Geopolitical risk can support gold, but if it also fuels inflation concerns and keeps policy expectations firm, gold may stay unstable rather than trend smoothly higher.
Technical structure on D1
Overall structure
On the daily chart, XAUUSD remains in a broader corrective phase after failing to hold above the higher imbalance zones. Price has already broken lower from the premium area and is now testing a more discounted region, which often becomes the next major decision point between recovery and continuation.
The current structure still shows weakness, but price is also sitting close to a support area where a technical rebound may start to build.
4,493: current support pivot
The first major level to watch is 4,493.
This is the immediate support zone the market is trying to defend. If buyers can hold this area, gold may begin forming a recovery leg early next week. If this level breaks cleanly, the correction may continue deeper.
4,603: first upside checkpoint
The next important level is 4,603.
This is the first liquidity area that buyers need to reclaim if they want to build a more credible rebound. Without a move back above this level, any upside may remain shallow and corrective.
4,734: key recovery barrier
Above that, 4,734 is the more important recovery barrier.
If buyers can reclaim both 4,603 and 4,734, the market would begin shifting from a weak rebound into a more meaningful recovery phase. If price fails below this zone, the broader bearish correction remains intact.
4,900 – 5,120: upper sell-side FVG zone
Higher up, the wider resistance band remains around 4,900–5,120.
This is still the main sell-side area where sellers may become active again if gold manages to rebound from current support. Even if next week starts with a bounce, this zone is still likely to cap stronger upside unless the structure improves clearly.
4,020 – 4,080: deeper support zone
If the current support structure breaks, the next major downside area comes in around 4,020–4,080.
This is the deeper support shelf on the chart and would likely become the next target if bearish pressure accelerates.
What order flow is suggesting
Current order flow suggests that gold is no longer in free fall, but buyers still have not regained control of the broader structure.
So for now:
sellers still hold the broader daily structure below the upper resistance zones
buyers are trying to defend the current support around 4,493
and the first real sign of recovery only comes if price starts reclaiming 4,603 and 4,734
This keeps the market balanced between a short-term rebound scenario and a deeper correction scenario.
Trading scenarios for next week
Scenario 1: Support holds and recovery develops
If gold holds above 4,493 and shows clear bullish confirmation, price may recover into the overhead liquidity zones.
Entry: around 4,500–4,520 on bullish confirmation
SL: below 4,430
TP1: 4,603
TP2: 4,734
TP3: 4,900–5,120
Scenario 2: Rebound into resistance, then sellers return
If price rebounds but fails to reclaim 4,603 or 4,734, the move may stay corrective and sellers may step back in.
Entry: around 4,603 or 4,734 on bearish rejection
SL: above the rejection high
TP1: 4,493
TP2: lower support if weakness returns
Scenario 3: Breakdown below support
If gold closes decisively below 4,493, the correction may extend deeper into the lower support zone.
Entry: below 4,493 on confirmed breakdown
SL: above the broken support
TP1: 4,200
TP2: 4,020–4,080
Key levels to watch
4,493 → current support pivot
4,603 → first upside liquidity
4,734 → key recovery barrier
4,900–5,120 → upper sell zone
4,020–4,080 → deeper support zone
Conclusion
Gold enters next week in a highly sensitive area. The market is sitting on an important support base, but the broader structure still needs a clear recovery above resistance before a stronger bullish outlook can be trusted.
Lana’s weekly view: gold may try to stabilize first, but unless buyers reclaim 4,603 and 4,734, the broader structure still leans cautious and vulnerable to another leg lower. Short 
Gold may range before next break.Gold May Stay Range-Bound Into FOMC Before the Next Break
Gold is approaching a key decision zone, but today’s rate meeting may keep price trapped in a holding pattern first. The Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged, so the real driver for gold may come from the tone of the statement, projections, and Powell’s guidance rather than the decision itself.
Fundamental backdrop
The rate outcome is almost fully priced in, which means the market is now focused on the Fed’s path forward. Recent Fed communication has emphasized caution, data dependence, and no preset course for further adjustments, so traders are likely waiting for a clearer signal before committing to a larger directional move.
That keeps gold in a sensitive position. Safe-haven demand can still offer background support, but if the Fed avoids sounding dovish, the Dollar may stay firm enough to prevent a clean upside breakout in gold. This is why a sideways phase ahead of the meeting still makes sense.
Technical structure on H3
Overall structure
On the H3 chart, gold remains under broader downside pressure after failing to recover above the upper sell FVG. Price is still trading below the broken short-term structure and below the descending guide from the recent swing high, which keeps the market leaning defensive.
At the same time, the selloff has slowed as price approaches the weekly low and the nearby liquidity base. That is a sign the market may need more information before choosing its next expansion leg.
4,990 – 4,967: Weekly low support zone
The most important area right now is the 4,990 – 4,967 support region around the weekly low.
This is the first key line buyers need to defend if they want to keep gold in consolidation ahead of the news. As long as price remains above this zone, the market can still rotate sideways and build a temporary base.
A clean break below this area would be more meaningful because it would suggest sellers are no longer waiting for the Fed and are already pushing for a deeper correction.
4,910 – 4,850: Liquidity and strong buy zone
Below the current market, the next major demand area sits around 4,910 – 4,850.
This zone is important because it combines visible liquidity with a stronger reaction area from the broader structure. If the weekly low fails, this becomes the next region where gold may try to stabilize and attract dip buyers again.
4,680 – 4,700: Rejection region
If selling pressure accelerates after the Fed, the deeper downside focus shifts toward the 4,680 – 4,700 rejection region.
This is the larger support shelf on the chart and the area where a stronger medium-term reaction would become more likely.
5,070 – 5,090: Sell FVG resistance
On the upside, the nearest resistance remains the 5,070 – 5,090 sell FVG.
This is still the key cap for any short-term recovery. If gold rebounds before or after the meeting but fails inside this zone, the move would likely remain corrective rather than the start of a stronger bullish reversal.
What order flow is suggesting
Order flow currently suggests hesitation rather than commitment.
So for now:
sellers still hold the broader structure below the sell FVG
buyers are trying to defend the weekly low and nearby liquidity zone
and the market may continue rotating sideways until the Fed provides a clearer catalyst
This is the kind of structure that often appears before a news-driven expansion move.
Trading scenarios
Scenario 1: Sideways trading continues into FOMC
If gold continues to hold above 4,967 but cannot reclaim 5,070 – 5,090, price may remain trapped in a consolidation range before the meeting outcome is digested.
Entry: range trading between support and resistance only on confirmation
SL: outside the range extremes
TP: middle of the range / opposite edge depending on intraday reaction
Scenario 2: Rebound into sell zone, then downside resumes
If price rebounds toward 5,070 – 5,090 but fails to break higher, sellers may re-enter from the FVG resistance.
Entry: 5,070 – 5,090 on bearish rejection
SL: above 5,110
TP1: 5,000
TP2: 4,967
TP3: 4,910 – 4,850
Scenario 3: Weekly low breaks after the Fed
If gold closes decisively below 4,967, the broader correction may extend into the next liquidity layer.
Entry: below 4,967 on confirmed breakdown
SL: above the broken support
TP1: 4,910
TP2: 4,850
TP3: 4,680 – 4,700
Key levels to watch
5,070 – 5,090 → sell FVG resistance
5,000 – 4,967 → weekly low support pivot
4,910 – 4,850 → liquidity and strong buy zone
4,680 – 4,700 → deeper rejection region
Conclusion
Gold still looks capable of trading sideways in the short term as the market waits for today’s FOMC decision and, more importantly, the Fed’s guidance. The rate hold is largely expected, so price may stay range-bound first before reacting to the statement and Powell’s tone.
For now, 5,070 – 5,090 remains the key sell zone, while 4,967 is the support that buyers need to protect. If that floor breaks, gold may open the way toward the deeper liquidity zones below.
Follow Lana for more XAUUSD trading ideas and clear technical setups. Short 
US100 | Retracement Into Supply Before Potential Continuation LoNASDAQ is currently pushing into a key supply zone around 24,700 – 24,760 after a strong recovery from the recent lows. This move appears to be a corrective pullback within the broader bearish structure.
The highlighted supply area previously acted as a distribution region, making it a high-probability reaction zone for sellers.
If price reaches this zone and shows rejection, we could see the formation of a lower high, leading to a continuation toward the downside.
Projected scenario:
• Price taps 24,700 – 24,760 supply
• Sellers step in creating a lower high
• Market rotates lower toward 24,360 liquidity level
This level represents the next draw on liquidity, where price may seek resting sell-side liquidity.
Key Levels
Supply Zone: 24,700 – 24,760
Current Price: ~24,645
Liquidity Target: ~24,360
The idea remains valid as long as price stays below the supply zone. A clean break above it would invalidate the bearish outlook. Short 
