Get started

Ict

XAUUSD – Wave 5 forming as macro pressure lowersGold is not just moving — it’s transitioning into a late-stage impulsive structure. Recent data shows the Fed’s unrealized losses have narrowed to $844.2B, down significantly from $1.06T. While this doesn’t directly shift monetary policy, it signals reduced systemic pressure — creating a more stable backdrop for risk assets and gold to continue trending structurally. Market Structure & Elliott Wave Price has completed a clean impulsive sequence from the bottom: Wave (1) → (2) → (3) expansion confirmed Wave (4) formed a controlled pullback within structure Current price is developing Wave (5) The structure remains bullish as long as price holds above the channel support. Fibonacci Confluence Wave (4) respected the 0.5 – 0.618 retracement zone Current expansion aligns toward the 0.236 extension (≈ 5,100) This level acts as a psychological + technical resistance This confluence strengthens the probability of a final push higher before any major correction. Key Zones Buy Zone (Wave 5 continuation): ~4,700 – 4,750 Mid resistance: ~4,970 Final target (Wave 5): ~5,100 Scenario Planning Primary scenario: Price holds the buy zone → continues channel expansion → completes Wave (5) toward 5,100. Alternative scenario: Failure below channel support → deeper correction before continuation. Kelly Perspective Kelly_Koou_Gold doesn’t chase tops. We follow structure, wave logic, and confirmation. Wave 5 is where profits are made — but also where discipline matters most.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Kelly_Koou_Gold
1
TSM | Bullish Scenario After Liquidity Reaction NYSE:TSM Bias: Bullish Price is currently reacting from a liquidity-driven area. If price retraces toward the 340 zone and holds structure, I will look for bullish continuation aligned with higher-timeframe context. Invalidation: Acceptance below 318 would negate the bullish scenario. Upside objective: Fibonacci level around 389. This is a scenario-based probability framework, not a trade signal. Execution depends on confirmation and risk management.
NYSE:TSMLong
by abhishekm894
XAUUSD: Gold correcting in bearish trendHello everyone, here is my view on the current XAUUSD setup. Market Analysis Gold is currently showing a short-term recovery, but the broader structure still suggests that this is only a corrective move within an existing bearish leg, not a confirmed reversal yet. On the chart, price is reacting back into the 4753–4760 sell zone, which is a key resistance area after the recent decline. This zone is important because it marks the upper boundary of the current recovery and may become the point where selling pressure returns. What stands out here is that the market is not breaking into a fresh bullish trend. Instead, it is moving sideways-to-higher inside a relatively tight range after the drop, which often reflects a pause or correction before the next directional move. In this case, the structure still leans bearish unless buyers can clearly break above the overhead resistance. Below the current price, the chart highlights a critical liquidity zone around 4580–4608. This is the main support area to watch if gold starts rolling over from resistance. A move back into this zone would fit the idea that the current rebound is only temporary and that the market may still be preparing for another leg lower. Even deeper, the 4554 level remains the next major downside reference if the liquidity zone fails to hold. So for now, the technical structure suggests that gold is still trading inside a correction, while the broader short-term pressure remains tilted to the downside. Key Price Areas to Watch Current resistance / sell zone: 4753–4760 Current price area: around 4754 Critical liquidity zone below: 4580–4608 Next downside support: 4554 My Scenario & Strategy My preferred scenario is to treat the current rise as a corrective rebound inside a bearish structure. As long as XAUUSD remains capped below the 4753–4760 resistance zone, I still favor the idea that this move may lose momentum and rotate lower again. If sellers respond from this area, the first downside objective would be the critical liquidity zone around 4580–4608. If bearish pressure continues building after that, gold could extend lower toward 4554, which becomes the next important support to watch. However, if price breaks cleanly above the current sell zone and starts holding above it, the correction would become stronger than expected, and the bearish continuation view would need to be reassessed. For now, gold still looks like it is correcting inside a broader short-term decline, so I prefer staying cautious on the upside until the market proves otherwise.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Lilybelle_gl
Gold weak recovery; another drop possible?Gold is showing a recovery from the recent sell-off, but the structure suggests this move may only be a corrective pullback rather than a true reversal. After the sharp decline, price has formed a short-term bullish leg; however, it is now approaching a key sell zone near 4680–4700, where multiple confluences are present. Market structure overview The broader context still reflects a bearish-to-neutral transition. Price remains below the descending resistance trendline, and the recent upside move lacks strong continuation momentum. This creates a typical scenario where the market rallies into supply before continuing lower. Key zones to watch Sell zone: 4680 – 4700 → strong resistance + trendline confluence Mid support: 4583 → short-term reaction level Intraday buy zones: 4553 / 4453 → liquidity-based support Major downside target: ~4000 → sell-side liquidity Primary scenario (Bearish continuation) If gold fails to break and hold above the 4680–4700 resistance zone, we may see a rejection forming at this level. That rejection would confirm this move as a pullback within a larger bearish structure, opening the path for a continuation lower. In this case: First downside reaction may occur around 4583 If broken, price could accelerate toward 4450 zone Extended move may aim for sell-side liquidity near 4000 Alternative scenario (Invalidation) If price manages to break above 4700 and hold, this would invalidate the bearish setup and signal a potential shift toward bullish continuation. However, until that happens, upside should be treated cautiously. Cecilia’s view Right now, gold is in a classic corrective phase. The recovery looks clean, but it lacks the strength needed to confirm a full reversal. For me, the focus is simple: Watch how price reacts at 4680–4700 Look for weakness, not strength Follow the rejection, not the hype Final thought Markets often move in waves — and this looks like a pullback before continuation. Patience here is key. Let price reach the zone, observe the reaction, and then follow the structure.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Cecilia_Jane_Trader
2
Gold Stays Heavy Under Dollar PressureGold Stays Under Pressure as Dollar Strength Keeps the Medium-Term Bias Heavy Gold remains in a fragile medium-term structure after the latest sharp selloff, with price still struggling to rebuild above key recovery levels. The broader tone has turned heavier as the US dollar continues to recover, while spot gold has already seen a deep intraday drop, showing that defensive demand is being outweighed by macro pressure for now. Trend Pulse From a structural point of view, the chart still favours weakness. The recent rebound from the lower zone is only a corrective recovery at this stage, not a confirmed bullish reversal. Price is holding above the immediate base for now, but it is still trading below the stronger overhead resistance cluster. The wave structure on the chart also suggests that gold may still be working inside a broader bearish sequence, with the current bounce behaving more like a temporary recovery before the next major decision. Key Price Territories The technical map is quite clear here: Immediate reaction level: around 4,587 First resistance: 4,530 - 4,588 Buy-zone liquidity: around 4,380 - 4,400 Deeper buy scalping zone: near 4,097 Psychological medium-term support: around 3,700 As long as price remains below the upper recovery zone, rallies may continue to face selling pressure. If the market loses the 4,380 - 4,400 area again, then the structure opens the door for a deeper move toward 4,097, with the broader downside path still exposing the 3,700 region in the medium term. Fundamental Layer The macro backdrop is now adding pressure to gold rather than helping it stabilise. The US dollar index has pushed back above the key psychological area, and that creates a more difficult environment for precious metals. At the same time, a sharp decline in spot gold shows that the market is not yet in a stable accumulation phase. Instead, capital is still reacting to stronger dollar momentum and a firmer macro tone. In simple terms, the dollar recovery is reducing gold’s upside flexibility and making rebounds less convincing. Structure Read This is the key Jasper view: Gold is not in a clean recovery trend yet. It is in a bearish medium-term structure with corrective rebounds. That means upside moves can still happen, especially into local resistance, but those rallies should be treated carefully unless price can reclaim the higher resistance band with strong follow-through. For now, the market still looks more likely to: rebound into overhead supply, fail to sustain strength, and remain exposed to another leg lower if support gives way again. Jasper’s Take Gold is trying to stabilise, but the broader medium-term picture still leans bearish while the dollar remains firm. Resistance: 4,530 - 4,588 Buy-zone liquidity: 4,380 - 4,400 Deeper support: 4,097 Psychological downside zone: 3,700 The clean read here is simple: gold may still produce short-term rebounds, but unless buyers reclaim higher resistance properly, the medium-term structure continues to favour downside pressure.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Jasper_Hayes
Gold Approaching Key Weekly SupportXAUUSD D1: Gold Enters a Critical Weekly Support Zone Ahead of Next Week Gold is moving into next week from a highly sensitive area. The daily chart shows price sitting near an important support base after a strong correction, while the broader structure still remains fragile. The key question now is whether buyers can stabilize the market from current levels, or whether gold will extend lower before a stronger rebound appears. Fundamental backdrop The macro picture remains mixed for gold. On one side, geopolitical tension is still unresolved, which keeps safe-haven demand alive in the background and supports the case for higher volatility next week. On the other side, the broader monetary backdrop remains restrictive, which continues to support the US Dollar and limit upside in non-yielding assets like gold. That combination matters. Geopolitical risk can support gold, but if it also fuels inflation concerns and keeps policy expectations firm, gold may stay unstable rather than trend smoothly higher. Technical structure on D1 Overall structure On the daily chart, XAUUSD remains in a broader corrective phase after failing to hold above the higher imbalance zones. Price has already broken lower from the premium area and is now testing a more discounted region, which often becomes the next major decision point between recovery and continuation. The current structure still shows weakness, but price is also sitting close to a support area where a technical rebound may start to build. 4,493: current support pivot The first major level to watch is 4,493. This is the immediate support zone the market is trying to defend. If buyers can hold this area, gold may begin forming a recovery leg early next week. If this level breaks cleanly, the correction may continue deeper. 4,603: first upside checkpoint The next important level is 4,603. This is the first liquidity area that buyers need to reclaim if they want to build a more credible rebound. Without a move back above this level, any upside may remain shallow and corrective. 4,734: key recovery barrier Above that, 4,734 is the more important recovery barrier. If buyers can reclaim both 4,603 and 4,734, the market would begin shifting from a weak rebound into a more meaningful recovery phase. If price fails below this zone, the broader bearish correction remains intact. 4,900 – 5,120: upper sell-side FVG zone Higher up, the wider resistance band remains around 4,900–5,120. This is still the main sell-side area where sellers may become active again if gold manages to rebound from current support. Even if next week starts with a bounce, this zone is still likely to cap stronger upside unless the structure improves clearly. 4,020 – 4,080: deeper support zone If the current support structure breaks, the next major downside area comes in around 4,020–4,080. This is the deeper support shelf on the chart and would likely become the next target if bearish pressure accelerates. What order flow is suggesting Current order flow suggests that gold is no longer in free fall, but buyers still have not regained control of the broader structure. So for now: sellers still hold the broader daily structure below the upper resistance zones buyers are trying to defend the current support around 4,493 and the first real sign of recovery only comes if price starts reclaiming 4,603 and 4,734 This keeps the market balanced between a short-term rebound scenario and a deeper correction scenario. Trading scenarios for next week Scenario 1: Support holds and recovery develops If gold holds above 4,493 and shows clear bullish confirmation, price may recover into the overhead liquidity zones. Entry: around 4,500–4,520 on bullish confirmation SL: below 4,430 TP1: 4,603 TP2: 4,734 TP3: 4,900–5,120 Scenario 2: Rebound into resistance, then sellers return If price rebounds but fails to reclaim 4,603 or 4,734, the move may stay corrective and sellers may step back in. Entry: around 4,603 or 4,734 on bearish rejection SL: above the rejection high TP1: 4,493 TP2: lower support if weakness returns Scenario 3: Breakdown below support If gold closes decisively below 4,493, the correction may extend deeper into the lower support zone. Entry: below 4,493 on confirmed breakdown SL: above the broken support TP1: 4,200 TP2: 4,020–4,080 Key levels to watch 4,493 → current support pivot 4,603 → first upside liquidity 4,734 → key recovery barrier 4,900–5,120 → upper sell zone 4,020–4,080 → deeper support zone Conclusion Gold enters next week in a highly sensitive area. The market is sitting on an important support base, but the broader structure still needs a clear recovery above resistance before a stronger bullish outlook can be trusted. Lana’s weekly view: gold may try to stabilize first, but unless buyers reclaim 4,603 and 4,734, the broader structure still leans cautious and vulnerable to another leg lower.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Lana_M2
Gold may range before next break.Gold May Stay Range-Bound Into FOMC Before the Next Break Gold is approaching a key decision zone, but today’s rate meeting may keep price trapped in a holding pattern first. The Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged, so the real driver for gold may come from the tone of the statement, projections, and Powell’s guidance rather than the decision itself. Fundamental backdrop The rate outcome is almost fully priced in, which means the market is now focused on the Fed’s path forward. Recent Fed communication has emphasized caution, data dependence, and no preset course for further adjustments, so traders are likely waiting for a clearer signal before committing to a larger directional move. That keeps gold in a sensitive position. Safe-haven demand can still offer background support, but if the Fed avoids sounding dovish, the Dollar may stay firm enough to prevent a clean upside breakout in gold. This is why a sideways phase ahead of the meeting still makes sense. Technical structure on H3 Overall structure On the H3 chart, gold remains under broader downside pressure after failing to recover above the upper sell FVG. Price is still trading below the broken short-term structure and below the descending guide from the recent swing high, which keeps the market leaning defensive. At the same time, the selloff has slowed as price approaches the weekly low and the nearby liquidity base. That is a sign the market may need more information before choosing its next expansion leg. 4,990 – 4,967: Weekly low support zone The most important area right now is the 4,990 – 4,967 support region around the weekly low. This is the first key line buyers need to defend if they want to keep gold in consolidation ahead of the news. As long as price remains above this zone, the market can still rotate sideways and build a temporary base. A clean break below this area would be more meaningful because it would suggest sellers are no longer waiting for the Fed and are already pushing for a deeper correction. 4,910 – 4,850: Liquidity and strong buy zone Below the current market, the next major demand area sits around 4,910 – 4,850. This zone is important because it combines visible liquidity with a stronger reaction area from the broader structure. If the weekly low fails, this becomes the next region where gold may try to stabilize and attract dip buyers again. 4,680 – 4,700: Rejection region If selling pressure accelerates after the Fed, the deeper downside focus shifts toward the 4,680 – 4,700 rejection region. This is the larger support shelf on the chart and the area where a stronger medium-term reaction would become more likely. 5,070 – 5,090: Sell FVG resistance On the upside, the nearest resistance remains the 5,070 – 5,090 sell FVG. This is still the key cap for any short-term recovery. If gold rebounds before or after the meeting but fails inside this zone, the move would likely remain corrective rather than the start of a stronger bullish reversal. What order flow is suggesting Order flow currently suggests hesitation rather than commitment. So for now: sellers still hold the broader structure below the sell FVG buyers are trying to defend the weekly low and nearby liquidity zone and the market may continue rotating sideways until the Fed provides a clearer catalyst This is the kind of structure that often appears before a news-driven expansion move. Trading scenarios Scenario 1: Sideways trading continues into FOMC If gold continues to hold above 4,967 but cannot reclaim 5,070 – 5,090, price may remain trapped in a consolidation range before the meeting outcome is digested. Entry: range trading between support and resistance only on confirmation SL: outside the range extremes TP: middle of the range / opposite edge depending on intraday reaction Scenario 2: Rebound into sell zone, then downside resumes If price rebounds toward 5,070 – 5,090 but fails to break higher, sellers may re-enter from the FVG resistance. Entry: 5,070 – 5,090 on bearish rejection SL: above 5,110 TP1: 5,000 TP2: 4,967 TP3: 4,910 – 4,850 Scenario 3: Weekly low breaks after the Fed If gold closes decisively below 4,967, the broader correction may extend into the next liquidity layer. Entry: below 4,967 on confirmed breakdown SL: above the broken support TP1: 4,910 TP2: 4,850 TP3: 4,680 – 4,700 Key levels to watch 5,070 – 5,090 → sell FVG resistance 5,000 – 4,967 → weekly low support pivot 4,910 – 4,850 → liquidity and strong buy zone 4,680 – 4,700 → deeper rejection region Conclusion Gold still looks capable of trading sideways in the short term as the market waits for today’s FOMC decision and, more importantly, the Fed’s guidance. The rate hold is largely expected, so price may stay range-bound first before reacting to the statement and Powell’s tone. For now, 5,070 – 5,090 remains the key sell zone, while 4,967 is the support that buyers need to protect. If that floor breaks, gold may open the way toward the deeper liquidity zones below. Follow Lana for more XAUUSD trading ideas and clear technical setups.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Lana_M2
US100 | Retracement Into Supply Before Potential Continuation LoNASDAQ is currently pushing into a key supply zone around 24,700 – 24,760 after a strong recovery from the recent lows. This move appears to be a corrective pullback within the broader bearish structure. The highlighted supply area previously acted as a distribution region, making it a high-probability reaction zone for sellers. If price reaches this zone and shows rejection, we could see the formation of a lower high, leading to a continuation toward the downside. Projected scenario: • Price taps 24,700 – 24,760 supply • Sellers step in creating a lower high • Market rotates lower toward 24,360 liquidity level This level represents the next draw on liquidity, where price may seek resting sell-side liquidity. Key Levels Supply Zone: 24,700 – 24,760 Current Price: ~24,645 Liquidity Target: ~24,360 The idea remains valid as long as price stays below the supply zone. A clean break above it would invalidate the bearish outlook.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by YCGH_Capital
2
EURUSD | Retracement Into Supply – Watching for Bearish ContinuaEURUSD printed a strong impulsive sell-off, sweeping liquidity from the downside before initiating a sharp corrective bounce. The current move appears to be a retracement into a higher-timeframe supply zone around 1.1485 – 1.1500. This area previously acted as a distribution region and may attract fresh sell-side pressure if price trades deeper into the zone. If sellers defend this region, the market could form a lower high within the bearish structure, potentially leading to another expansion toward the downside. Possible scenario • Price pushes into 1.1485 – 1.1500 supply • Rejection confirms lower high formation • Continuation toward previous liquidity levels below Key Levels Supply Zone: 1.1485 – 1.1500 Current Price: ~1.1479 Structure Bias: Bearish unless supply breaks
Short
by YCGH_Capital
XAUUSD H1: DXY Surges to 100.28XAUUSD H1: DXY Surges to 100.28, Gold Loses Short-Term Support as Bearish Pressure Builds Gold is showing a clear loss of momentum after the DXY surged to 100.28 during the European session, reinforcing renewed strength in the US Dollar. As the Dollar strengthens, gold is coming under heavier selling pressure, and the chart now reflects a market that is no longer in balance. On the H1 timeframe, price has started to slip below key short-term support, while the recent bullish structure is weakening, suggesting that downside pressure is expanding more clearly. This is no longer just a temporary pullback. A stronger Dollar usually creates a double layer of pressure on gold: it weakens gold from a valuation perspective and also reduces short-term speculative demand. That is exactly what current price action is starting to reflect. Fundamental backdrop The main driver behind this move is the sharp rise in the DXY to 100.28, which confirms that USD strength is being reestablished. When the Dollar gains momentum like this, gold usually becomes less attractive in the short term, especially when price is already struggling to break higher. In simple terms, the Dollar rally is acting as a catalyst for further weakness in gold. That is why price failed to hold nearby support and is now beginning to rotate lower from an important technical area. Technical analysis on H1 Looking at the chart, gold is now trading below the key sell zone at 5127 - 5139, which was already marked as the ideal area for short entries. This is an important technical detail because it confirms that price reacted precisely from resistance, and sellers are currently in control. The EMA structure is also turning more negative: EMA 34: 5122.711 EMA 89: 5143.221 EMA 200: 5150.824 Price is now trading below the EMA 89 and EMA 200, while rebounds are being capped around the EMA 34 area. This kind of alignment suggests that upside recovery is weak and the short-term structure is shifting more clearly in favor of the bears. Another key point from the chart is the invalidation level for the bearish setup. The bearish view only weakens if price can reclaim and hold above 5150.824. For now, price remains below that level, which means the downside scenario is still active. In addition, the rising short-term trendline has lost its ability to support price effectively. Once gold slipped away from that structure, the market opened the door for a broader move into lower reaction zones. Key price zones Near resistance 5127 - 5139: primary sell zone 5150.824: bearish invalidation level if price closes back above it 5193.274: higher resistance and recovery level if buyers regain control Downside reaction zones 5059.560: first critical reaction zone 4996.224: next downside target 4956.500: deeper support 4904.945: support cluster near psychological resistance 4850 4780 - 4800: major strong support zone Trading scenario Primary scenario: Prefer Sell positions while price remains below resistance This remains the higher-probability setup because price has already reacted from the 5127 - 5139 sell zone and continues to trade below the key EMA cluster. Entry zones Sell 1: 5127 - 5139 if price retests resistance and prints bearish rejection Sell 2: 5143 - 5150 if price pushes deeper into EMA 89 / EMA 200 but fails to close above Sell breakout: if H1 closes below 5059, wait for a weak retest before entering continuation shorts Stop loss Above 5152 for the closer sell setup More conservative: above 5193 Take profit TP1: 5059 TP2: 4996 TP3: 4956 TP4: 4904 TP5: 4850 TP6: 4780 - 4800 Alternative scenario: recovery invalidates the bearish bias The bearish setup would weaken if gold reclaims 5150.824 and secures a firm H1 close above that level. In that case, the current decline could turn into nothing more than a short-term flush before price rotates back toward 5193. However, that is not happening yet. For now, every rebound should still be viewed as a potential selling opportunity, rather than an early reason to shift bullish. Conclusion XAUUSD is now under growing bearish pressure as the DXY rally to 100.28 strengthens the Dollar and directly weighs on gold. From a technical perspective, price has already reacted from the sell zone at 5127 - 5139, remains below the EMA 89 and EMA 200, and is opening room for a deeper move into lower reaction zones. As long as gold stays below 5150.824, the market remains tilted toward a bearish continuation scenario. For now, the more favorable approach is to sell rallies into resistance, rather than trying to catch a bottom too early.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Jasper_Hayes
1
XAUUSD D1 overview analysis next weekGold Is Entering a Critical Zone — Could Wave C Expand Next Week? On the D1 timeframe, gold is approaching a highly sensitive phase as the previous buying structure is no longer maintaining the same strong momentum seen earlier in the trend. Instead of continuing to break higher, price is now reacting more clearly around major liquidity areas, while signs of a broader corrective structure are beginning to appear. What stands out here is that after the strong impulsive rally, the market has started to form a more corrective pattern, with the possibility of developing into an A-B-C structure. In that context, next week may become a key period to determine whether gold is only experiencing a technical pullback, or whether it is truly entering a deeper Wave C decline on the daily chart. How Is the Fundamental Backdrop Affecting Gold? This week, the U.S. Dollar rose to its highest level in four months, reflecting a return of defensive capital flows across the market. In most cases, a stronger dollar tends to create downside pressure on gold. At the same time, however, the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report unexpectedly showed a decline of 92,000 jobs in February, suggesting that the labor market may be losing strength. This adds uncertainty to growth expectations and monetary policy outlook, which still supports gold’s role as a defensive asset over the medium term. In other words, gold is currently being influenced by two opposing forces: A stronger USD, which creates short-term pressure Growing concerns around economic slowdown and defensive demand, which continue to support gold at lower levels This tension is exactly why the technical structure on the D1 timeframe matters even more at this stage. Technical View on the D1 Chart 1. Overall Structure From a broader perspective, gold remains inside a corrective phase following the strong rally that came before. Bullish momentum has slowed, recovery attempts are no longer as clean or sustained, and selling pressure is starting to appear more clearly at higher levels. The descending trendline above price is now acting as dynamic resistance, limiting the strength of rebound attempts. This suggests that buyers have not yet regained clear control on the daily timeframe. 2. Corrective Wave Structure Based on the current formation, the market may be developing an A-B-C correction: Wave A represents the initial sharp decline from the top Wave B is the rebound phase, but it failed to fully reclaim the major resistance zone Wave C could become the next leg lower, extending toward deeper demand zones The key point here is that Wave B reacted near diagonal resistance and failed to confirm a renewed buying continuation. This increases the probability that the market may continue into a broader Wave C move. 3. Key Liquidity Zones The 4,848 – 4,992 area is currently the most important liquidity zone to watch. This is not only a horizontal support region, but also an area where stronger market reaction could emerge if price continues to decline. If this zone fails to hold, the corrective structure may expand more clearly, opening the path toward 4,205, which is marked as the potential completion area for Wave C. Below that, the region around 4,000 stands out as a major daily order block, and also a deep higher-timeframe demand zone. If price eventually reaches this area, it would become a critical region to monitor for absorption and a possible structural reaction. Important Technical Levels Near-term resistance: The rebound high of Wave B and the descending diagonal resistance above Major medium-term liquidity zone: 4,848 – 4,992 Potential Wave C completion zone: 4,205 Major D1 Order Block: Around 4,000 Trading Scenarios for Next Week Scenario 1: Wave C Continues to Expand This remains the preferred scenario if price continues to get rejected around the current rebound zone and fails to reclaim the upper resistance structure. In this case, the market may continue lower toward 4,848 – 4,992 to test liquidity. If buying pressure in this zone is not strong enough, Wave C may extend further down toward 4,205, and possibly even deeper toward 4,000. This scenario fits the current structure well, especially since the rebound from Wave B has not been strong enough to invalidate the broader corrective outlook. Scenario 2: Technical Rebound from Major Liquidity If price reacts positively around 4,848 – 4,992, gold may form a technical rebound back toward the upper resistance zone. However, at this stage, any upside move should still be treated as a corrective rebound unless price is able to break above the key resistance structure and confirm a renewed buying trend on the D1 timeframe. In other words, gold needs to show much more than a simple bounce from support before the broader trend can be considered bullish again. What to Watch Next Week The most important point right now is not to predict with certainty whether gold will rise or fall, but to closely observe how price reacts around major liquidity zones. Next week, all focus should remain on the 4,848 – 4,992 zone. This area will likely determine whether gold is only going through a normal correction, or whether it is entering the final stages of a broader Wave C decline on the daily chart. If price reacts weakly there, downside pressure may accelerate quickly. On the other hand, if clear absorption and strong buying interest appear, the market may need more time to consolidate before choosing a new direction. Conclusion Overall, gold on the D1 timeframe is showing signs of a more complete corrective structure after its previous strong advance. With the U.S. dollar remaining firm in the short term, while weaker labor data adds uncertainty to the macro environment, gold is now entering a highly sensitive zone both fundamentally and technically. At this stage, the probability of gold developing into a broader Wave C move next week remains the more important scenario to monitor, especially if rebound attempts continue to stay capped below major resistance. If you are interested in a market approach based on structure, liquidity, and price behavior, follow the channel to continue sharing deeper market perspectives in the next analyses.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lana_M2
XAUUSD-Gold tests key level after trendline breakdownXAUUSD H2: Gold Tests Key Structure After Trendline Breakdown Gold is currently trading near an important structural area after a confirmed breakdown below the ascending trendline on the H2 timeframe. The recent candle close below the trendline suggests that the short-term bullish structure has weakened, and the market is now testing whether buyers can defend the current support zone. After the impulsive move lower, price attempted a recovery but is still trading below the 5158 – 5160 supply zone, which now acts as a key resistance level. This area aligns with previous structure and may attract selling pressure if price revisits it. At the same time, the 5050 – 5000 liquidity region below the market remains an important downside target, as sell-side liquidity has not yet been fully cleared. Key Technical Levels Resistance / Sell zone: 5158 – 5160 Structure confirmation level: 5205 Immediate support: Around 5051 Major liquidity zone: Near 5000 Higher-timeframe demand / Order Block: Around 4840 Trading Scenarios Bullish Recovery Scenario If price manages to reclaim the 5158 – 5160 zone and hold above it, bullish momentum could return in the short term. A breakout above 5205 would confirm strength and may open the path toward higher liquidity areas. Bearish Continuation Scenario If price fails to reclaim the resistance zone and continues trading below 5158, sellers may remain in control. In that case, gold could extend lower toward the 5050 support area, with a possible liquidity sweep toward 5000 before any stronger reaction. Outlook The market is currently in a decision zone after the trendline break. The reaction around 5158 resistance and 5050 support will likely determine the next directional move. Until a clear breakout occurs, traders should monitor liquidity behavior around these levels as the market prepares for its next impulse. Follow the channel for more structure- and liquidity-based market analysis.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lana_M2
2
GOLD H4 04/03 | Last support before potential selling.If the final demand trendline is broken, the market could shift from a range state to a strong decline phase – a scenario similar to a “big short” when a large number of buying positions are forced to exit. This is also why I maintain the view that 5600 is likely to be a major peak for gold in the first half of 2026. Recently, the gold market has been strongly supported by geopolitical factors, especially tensions related to the US and Iran, increasing the demand for safe havens. However, if you closely observe the market structure, you can see that the current uptrend shows many signs of a liquidity trap rather than a sustainable uptrend. When prices are pushed up by news, FOMO sentiment often appears, leading to a large accumulation of buying positions at high price levels. This is a common condition before the market enters a strong correction phase. From a technical perspective on the H4 frame, gold still maintains a medium-term uptrend structure with higher lows forming along the demand trendline. However, some weakening signals have begun to appear. The price failed when approaching the supply zone around 5400+, where liquidity is concentrated above. Subsequently, the market began to break the short-term uptrend line and return to the FVG area combined with fibo 0.382 – 0.5, indicating that buying power is gradually decreasing. Currently, the entire uptrend structure is being held by the demand trendline below, and this can be seen as the last line of defense for buyers at this stage. If the support area around 5050–5100 continues to hold, gold could completely see a technical rebound back to the 5200–5300 area, maintaining a sideways state in a wide range. However, the more important scenario lies in the possibility of this trendline being broken. Once the uptrend structure on H4 is broken, the market could quickly shift to a markdown phase. Below the current area, liquidity is relatively “thin,” so when the cash flow begins to exit the trapped buying positions, the price could completely open up a very steep decline. In that case, the next liquidity zones could be around 4900–4800, and if selling pressure continues, the market could even return to the 4500+ area. This is also why I maintain the view that 5600 is likely to be a major peak for gold in the first half of 2026, especially if the current structure shifts from accumulation to distribution. In summary, in the short term, gold may still have technical rebounds, but the overall picture shows that the market is approaching a decisive point. If the final demand trendline is broken, the market could shift from a range state to a strong decline phase – a scenario similar to a “big short” when a large number of buying positions are forced to exit. If you want to follow the gold market perspective from the macro context to important technical price zones every day, follow LucasGrayTrading. Here, I regularly update market route maps, liquidity zones, and price scenarios before the market actually moves, helping you have a clearer view before each major gold fluctuation.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LucasGrayTrading
2
GOLD 23/02 – H1 MAP | RISING SELL SIGNALGold is rising strongly thanks to the “war premium” from US-Iran tensions, and the market almost unanimously agrees with the scenario of continuing to set new peaks. However, as the price approaches the 5550–5600 zone – HTF supply + liquidity pool – this may not be a safe buying point, but rather a distribution zone of the first half of the year's uptrend cycle. In terms of macro context, geopolitical factors are clearly supporting gold as safe-haven flows increase. The tough statements and escalating risks in the Middle East make the market narrative lean heavily towards bullish. But remember: news is a catalyst, not a structure. When the crowd buys because of war, the premium is often already priced into the market. On H4, the trend remains HH–HL and the price moves within an upward channel. However, the recent upward momentum has the characteristic of steep expansion – often appearing at the final phase of an upward leg. The 5550–5600 zone is a clear premium zone of the entire structure from the nearest bottom. If strong rejection occurs here, a distribution structure will begin to form. On the H1 frame, the price has broken out of the accumulation pattern and maintains a short-term upward structure. Intraday demand around 5200–5250 is playing a role in maintaining momentum. As long as this area is protected, the intraday uptrend remains. However, if H1 forms a bearish BOS and loses 5200, the short-term structure will reverse and open up a deeper correction. The main scenario I am watching is the reaction at 5600. If H4 cannot close firmly above this zone and a breakdown occurs below 5200, gold may enter a steep decline phase towards 5050, even 4800. With the current steepness of the upward momentum, a structural break could create a very rapid decline – a “big short” type due to two-way liquidity being drained. Conversely, only when H4 closes clearly above 5600 and maintains structure after a pullback, will continuation be confirmed. Current bias: Short-term: Bullish but cautious at premium. Mid-term: 5600 is the test zone for the first half of 2026 peak. When the market sees a breakout, I look at liquidity. Follow to update perspectives from macro to cash flow structure and detailed confluence zones daily. Trade with the trend, but only buy at a discount – do not buy based on emotional news.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by LucasGrayTrading
2
Weekly Analysis with buy/Sell scenarios in Gold/XAUUSD👋👋👋 Friends, What's your view on Gold??? Last week, global gold prices showed a volatile but upward bias, with spot gold recovering after a dip and ending the week with gains of roughly 1–2%, holding near the $5,000–$5,050 zone; As per the current scenario we may further expect consolidation in this zone and range bound trading in coming days till it reaches to 4500 or take the liquidity of 5150 level. If price breaks 5150 level and sustain above, we may see new high. Though the level of 5300 is also critical Critical notes. 1. 4500, 5150 and 5300 level are critical and should be monitored for high probability trade opportunities. 2. 4500 is very strong level for any buy opportunity with high probability and reward. 3. 5150 is equilibrium level of previous week candle, which makes it critical level of reversal. 4. 5300 is strong level of first quadrant of range. It is critical make or break level. 5. Price will for any or some sort of PD arrays at these level followed by entry models. 6. Most probably price will take liquidity of Key Level/FVG/RDRB level and create MSS/CISD/TS/iFVG in LTF. 7. Price should show rejection/reversal in respective LTF (1h/15m) at Key Level/FVG zone. 8. Take the trade only once clear entry model i.e. turtle soup. iFVG break, CDS or MSS happens on LTF All these combinations are signalling a high probability and high RnR trade scenario. Note – if you liked this analysis, please boost the idea so that other can also get benefit of it. Also follow me for notification for incoming ideas. Also Feel free to comment if you have any input to share. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please do your own research (DYOR) and check with your financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by HareeyMarketMantraah
1
A 1500 points drop in NQ this week? Hello traders! NQ has broken through Friday's high and almost hit the daily wick CE . We also have continuous bullish candles on the daily which would form a complete order block . We also have a 12h gap inside the daily order block which the market has tapped into. I'm expecting an extremely bearish week with draws to 24239.75, 23904.50, and a daily fvg at 23600. We also have NFP this week which has been delayed as it was originally supposed to come out on Friday itself. It's a red folder packed week and I suggest super caution around those times. We also have CPI on Friday which was supposed to be released on Wednesday of this week. When the calendar is messed with, it becomes obvious that manipulation will be at its peak. We also have SMT divergence on the daily chart. That is just a bonus and not the base of this bearish idea. The foundation of this whole idea is based on where the market is heading, where the liquidity is resting. Have a good trading week, Satya. P.S. Not financial advice.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by SatyaPSahai
USDCAD | 1H Market Structure OutlookUSDCAD is currently trading within a well-defined short-term distribution range after engineering a strong impulsive rally from the late-January lows. The recent expansion into the 1.3700 handle appears to have tapped into a premium supply zone, where price printed rejection wicks, signaling the presence of institutional sell-side liquidity. From an SMC / ICT perspective: Price swept relative equal highs before showing displacement to the downside, hinting at a classic buy-side liquidity grab. The rejection from the marked supply suggests smart money may be positioning for a retracement toward inefficiencies left below. Internal structure is beginning to shift bearish on the lower timeframe, though confirmation would require a decisive break of structure (BOS) beneath the 1.3620 support. Key Levels to Watch Supply / Premium: 1.3695 to 1.3710 Intermediate Support: ~1.3620 (range floor) Higher-Timeframe Demand: 1.3580 to 1.3600, aligning with the visible demand block and potential mitigation zone. Projected Path If price fails to reclaim the supply region, the probability favors a corrective move lower, potentially delivering a measured draw on liquidity into the demand zone. A brief pullback into a lower high followed by continuation would further validate bearish order flow. Invalidation Scenario: Sustained acceptance above 1.3710 would negate the bearish premise and open the door for continuation toward higher liquidity pools. Bias: Short-term bearish while below supply, with expectations of liquidity engineering toward discounted pricing.
Short
by YCGH_Capital
2