This video gives an overview of how Indian economy performed during the post covid era, vis-a-vis other countries and using that performance as a benchmark, it explains that as US starts to cut rates, how Indian economy, bonds, currency and equities will likely perform
Indian Budget will be presented in Jul 2024. This will be a coalition government budget, hence there is a chance of the government going populist and yielding to coalition partners demands. Indian government has done a fabulous job in the last decade of maintaining the public finances in a strong position.
This video tries to highlight where we stand due to our...
Maharashtra Government announced the interim Budget today for 2024 - 25. The effort is laudable as it has tried to rein the revenue deficit and also reduce borrowing.
Karnataka has increased its expenses and has not provided for any income increase of the same magnitude. Due to this the state is facing fiscal problems. It is simply resorting to borrowing more to fund its populist programmes. This is a sure receipe for disaster.
All factors seem to be falling in place for Indian Economy. And that will likely translate into huge gains for Indian currency, bonds and equities. This update speaks about the signals visible at the beginning of 2024.
India has managed to keep its public finance in control and focus on capex led growth. That has ensured that India managed to stay afloat during the storm and now that the storm has subsided, India is on its way to race at higher knots.
This video is an update on the latest global macro developments
As the US Inflation numbers came soft, all doubts about Fed hiking rates in December were gone. That led to all currencies strengthening against the $. US Yields colled off, Dollar Index came down and US Equities soared.
Indian markets also joined the party. The Rupee made strong gains making new multi week highs. G Sec Yields came off highs and Sensex and Nifty...
Rupee made a new low against the greenback on Fri 10 Nov 2023.
Falling Rupee means higher inflation, higher yields, lower liquidity and hence capping of equities.
This is what i discuss in this update
Over the past few days, there has been a steady fall in Indian yields, largely due to fall in US yields and falling crude oil prices. The rupee has been stable for over a year now; it is this kind of predictability in the economyu that makes India an attractive investment destination vis-a-vis its peers.
As we approach Mahurat Trading, we are crucial resistance...
As US Yields cool off a tad bit, it results into Dollar index cooling and Rupee strengthening. Our Forex Reserves increased, our yields fell and our benchmark equity indices soared. India's maiden 50 year bond issue was oversubscribed and that shows how much interest and confidence there is about India over the coming few decades.
India's largest Festival season...
As the FED did not tinker with rates, Indian equity markets saw a gap up opening. This was probably on the hope tha FII selling will subside and the continuous fall which we were witnessing may pause/ stop.
India's largest festival - Diwali - is on, followed by the Union Budget coming in early 2024 and soon after that the central elections would be...
Rising US Yields are attracting liquidity from all assets. Also, in the domestic markets the yield curve has become flat.
From being normal sloping during height of Covid to flat today; the shape and level of the yield curve have repercussions on investors.
This video examines the liquidity situation globally as well as locally and tracks leading indicators to...
