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BHEL LONG Term ProspectWelcome to the update for BHEL for long-term holding. It was in a downtrend for a long time. It finally broke the trend and is ready for another leg up. It retested successfully and is currently trading around Rs 54.90. It can show a potential rally of around 42% from here as it looks good both technically and fundamentally. The expected entry range should be between Rs 52 to Rs 56. The target is expected to reach around Rs 77+ within a few days. This is not financial advice, please do your own research before investing and we are not responsible for any of your losses or profits.
NSE:BHELLong
by ScramblerG
TATAPOWER BreakoutHello !! Welcome to the update for TATA POWER for long-term holding. After consolidating for around 5 months, TATA Power broke out of the channel and is currently retesting the resistance turned support. It can show a potential rally of around 40% from here. The expected entry range should be between Rs 248 to Rs 259. The target is expected to reach around Rs 360+ within a few days. This is not financial advice, please do your own research before investing and we are not responsible for any of your losses or profits.
NSE:TATAPOWERLong
by ScramblerG
7
Price action screaming buy!! Or is it as simple as it looks?If we go by the textbook definition of a falling wedge pattern, the price consolidates between two downward sloping & converging lines forming a wedge shape. (Not as difficult as it sounds, just looks at the chart). As per a common understanding of this pattern, the price continues higher after a breakout to the upside. Price action in LIC Housing finance shows a nice breakout of the falling wedge pattern. The price broke out with a strong candle and above-average volumes. This is a perfect condition for a buy trade. But wait, This is not the complete technical picture. Keep reading We recently saw how a bullish Inverse head & shoulder pattern failed in HDFC, even though it had a perfect breakout condition, Positive news about the merger and almost all ideas on trading view were out rightly bullish. (Check HDFC idea in my profile, neutral and saved myself from loss) If it were as simple as identifying a pattern and taking a trade, everyone would be making profits in the market. Back to LIC Housing Finance: Along with the falling wedge, there are other technical factors. Two important levels to watch are the 200 days moving average, and the Horizontal S&R line at 389.25. The price has taken support or resistance at this line multiple times in the past. Let’s look at the positives first: • Perfect falling wedge pattern & breakout with a strong candle and good volumes. • MACD trending higher and in positive territory. RSI Strong, and other indicators in the positive territory. • Price finished its correction exactly at 61.8% Fibonacci ratio with Price RSI positive divergence before the correction ended. Now the Caution Signals: • Price trading below Strong resistance line at 389.25 and struggling to cross above. • Price below 200 days moving average (a strong resistance level). 200DMA currently trading at @400. • Whole numbers are considered psychological S&R levels and 400 is a psychological level. • Fibonacci 38.20% level @ 405.60 may act as minor resistance. Combining these points, we get a strong resistance zone between 389 to 400 and minor resistance at 405. A breakout above the wedge pattern is the first signal. The price has to breakout above the resistance zone. If the breakout happens, wait for the price to retest 200dma or Horizontal line @ 389, whichever is higher at the time. I give more weightage to Horizontal S&R lines because these are the points where most buyers/sellers are concentrated. 200DMA is definitely a strong resistance and there will be many sellers at this level. I’m cautiously bullish on this stock. The best way to avoid failure is to wait for the price to give us a confirmation. I will be following the price movement closely and update this idea when I get a buy/sell signal. So follow me and stay tuned for the next update. Post your comments. Let’s have a discussion. Happy trading. Co-Authors: in.tradingview.com in.tradingview.com Disclaimer: This is not buy/sell advice. Please do your due diligence before making any trading decision or consult your financial advisor. Sharing my analysis and thoughts for a stronger and healthier community. Cheers
NSE:LICHSGFINLong
by Sai_Kumar
7
Developing Technical & Fundamental outlook on HDFC, BUY or SELL?After the news of HDFC’s duo merger, the Market cheered and the price shot up. Now it’s back to the breakout point after the huge rise. Is it a good level to buy? Let's get into the Technical outlook first, then, we will explore the fundamental view of the merged entity. Technical Outlook: Bullish signals • Inverse Head & Shoulder pattern formation • Breakout of neckline & Retest Bearish Signals • Price could not sustain breakout of Major Resistance @ 2506 & trading below Psychological level @ 2500. • Indicators showing weakness. The chart has formed an Inverse Head & shoulder pattern. This pattern is considered a continuation pattern and a breakout above the neckline is a bullish signal. The Gap up and volume spike was due to the HDFC duo merger news. Price is back at the breakout level and retesting the neckline support. One key thing to notice on the chart is the Major S&R line at 2506. The price could not sustain above this level and currently trading below the psychological level of 2500. Overall Technical outlook – Neutral, Wait for buy/sell signal For Intraday/ Swing Trade purpose: Two important levels are - Horizontal Resistance at 2506 & the Neckline Support at 2435. If the price breaks down below 2435: Sell at the next red candle or at the retest of breakdown near 2435. SL - above the Major Resistance 2506. If the price breaks out above 2506: Buy at the next green candle or at the retest of breakout near 2506. SL - Below Neckline support 2435 Target/ Exit Level – Trailing SL We'll get correct levels only when the breakout happens under suitable conditions. There are multiple possibilities. The price may go up, down, or sideways. -------------------------------------- Fundamental Outlook: The HDFC duo has a track record of good business practices and customer service. The future looks promising for the merged entity. Reason? Home Loans are secured loans as the house is kept as collateral. Banks love this segment as they have the benefit of cash deposits which are available at lower rates, and they can offer cheaper home loans than NBFCs. But HDFC Bank could not aggressively participate. All they did was assign these home loans to HDFC for a small fee. Why do you ask? Because they would be directly competing with HDFC if they did. The merged entity will have the benefit of: 1) Cash deposits at significantly lower rates which will help offer cheaper loans 2) The customer base of HDFC bank 3) HDFC Bank will have the freedom to aggressively sell these loans. Key Risks: HDFC Bank has always played safe by keeping a lower concentration of loans in the higher-risk segments. It even survived the collapse of debt-ridden infrastructure companies in the 2000s. It seems that this strategy is changing. This press release says: www.hdfcbank.com A lot of mergers don’t work as expected. There could be many reasons for this to happen. Regulatory issues, Systematic problems, market conditions. Although the business outlook is strong, what matters more for intraday/ swing trade is the technical figures on the price chart. I will be following the price movement closely and take a trade when I get a signal. I will also post it here, so follow me and stay tuned for the next update. Post your comments. Let’s have a discussion. Happy trading. 😊 Co-Authors: in.tradingview.com in.tradingview.com Disclaimer: This is not buy/sell advice. Please do your due diligence before making any trading decision or consult your financial advisor. Sharing my analysis and thoughts for a stronger and healthier community. Cheers
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by Sai_Kumar
2