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Gold braces for consecutive second weekly gain, focus on $2,390Gold price seesaws at the highest level in a fortnight early Friday, after rising the most in five weeks the previous day. That said, a successful breakout of the 50-SMA and a downward-sloping resistance line from May 20 backed the precious metal’s run-up on Thursday. Apart from that, upbeat RSI and bullish MACD signals also keep the XAUUSD buyers hopeful of witnessing the second consecutive weekly gain. With this, a two-month-old horizontal resistance area surrounding $2,390 gains major attention, a break of which will allow bulls to aim for the $2,400 and the $2,410 levels ahead of challenging the record high of around $2,450. Meanwhile, a convergence of the 50-SMA and aforementioned trend line stretched from May, close to $2,344 at the latest, appears the key support to watch during the Gold price decline. Following that, the $2,300 threshold and an 11-week-long rising support line of near $2,293 will be the last defense of the XAUUSD buyers. It’s worth noting that the monthly of $2,286 and May’s low surrounding $2,277 will act as additional downside filters before giving control to the bears. To sum up, the Gold buyers are well in control but the upside room appears limited.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD stays on bear’s radar ahead of UK inflation, BoEGBPUSD stays defensive after recovering from a one-month low in the last two days. That said, the Cable pair’s latest inaction could be linked to the trader’s cautious mood ahead of the UK’s top-tier data/events, namely Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Thursday’s Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Announcements. However, the quote’s sustained trading beneath a nine-week-old ascending trend channel and a convergence of the 50 and 100-bar Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) keep the Pound Sterling sellers hopeful. Even if the pair manage to cross the aforementioned EMA confluence of around 1.2725-30 and also trade successfully beyond the stated channel’s bottom line, close to 1.2765 at the latest, a three-week-old ascending resistance line surrounding 1.2885 will challenge the upside momentum. On the flip side, a fortnight-long horizontal support region surrounding 1.2640 and the 1.2600 threshold restricts short-term declines of the GBPUSD pair. Following that, the previous monthly low of nearly 1.2445 and the yearly bottom marked in April around 1.2300 may entertain the Pound Sterling sellers. In a case where the Cable pair remains bearish past 1.2300, it becomes vulnerable to slump toward the late 2023 low of near 1.2035 and then to the 1.2000 psychological magnet. To sum up, the GBPUSD pair’s latest rebound appears elusive as it keeps the previous week’s downside break of technical supports, now resistances. Also favoring the pair sellers is an absence of oversold RSI and likely downbeat UK catalysts.
by MTradingGlobal
Impending “Death Cross” keeps Gold sellers hopefulThe US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish halt failed to impress the US Dollar buyers as softer inflation data raised doubts about the central bank’s one rate cut in 2024 projections. The same allowed the Gold price to refresh weekly high during its three-day uptrend by the end of Wednesday. However, failure to cross the key SMAs and a looming “Death Cross” of the 100-SMA and the 200-SMA joins the unimpressive RSI (14) and an impending bear cross on the MACD to challenge the precious metal buyers afterward. That said, the quote currently drops toward a 10-week-old rising support line, close to $2,288, a break of that will highlight the previous monthly low of $2,277 and the early April swing lows surrounding $2,266 as the seller’s favorite. It’s worth noting, however, that the XAUUSD’s sustained weakness past $2,266 will make it vulnerable to a slump toward the March 21 peak of $2,222. Alternatively, Gold buyers need a clear upside break of the 100-SMA and 200-SMA convergence, close to $2,343-44 by the press time, to retake control. Even so, a three-week-old descending resistance line will test the XAUUSD bulls around $2,371. In a case where the precious metal remains firmer past $2,371, the monthly high of near $2,387 and the $2,400 threshold could challenge the upside momentum targeting a two-month-old horizontal resistance area surrounding $2,433-34. Overall, Gold teases sellers after the top-tier catalysts but a clear break of $2,288 becomes necessary to expect the metal’s further downside.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD traders should focus on 1.0790, US inflation and FedEURUSD licks its wounds at the lowest level in six weeks as the pair traders await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Also important are the final readings of Germany’s inflation data for May and speeches from a slew of European Central Bank (ECB) officials. In doing so, the Euro pair keeps the week-start fall beneath the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a one-month-old ascending support line, a part of the short-term bullish triangle. Not only the downside break of the key SMA and rejection of the bullish chart pattern but the bearish MACD signals and an absence of the oversold RSI (14) also keep the pair sellers hopeful. The same highlights February’s low of around 1.0695 as immediate support to watch during the quote’s fresh downside. Following that, an upward-sloping trend line from October 2023 near 1.0650 will act as the final defense of the buyers. In a case where the pair remains bearish past 1.0650, it becomes vulnerable to refresh the yearly low, currently around the 1.0600 threshold. On the contrary, softer US inflation and the Fed’s inability to convince the policy hawks despite avoiding the looming rate cut can trigger the EURUSD pair’s recovery. In that case, a convergence of the 200-SMA and support-turned-resistance line around 1.0790 will be in the spotlight. Should the Euro buyers manage to provide a daily closing beyond the 1.0790 hurdle, as well as cross the 1.0800 round figure, the 50% Fibonacci ratio of its July-October 2023 decline, around 1.0865, and then to a five-month-old descending resistance line, near 1.0915, can’t be ruled out. It should be observed, however, that the buyers will face heavy resistance past 1.0915 as the aforementioned triangle’s top line of 1.0920 will precede the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio near 1.0960 and an 11-month-old falling trend line surrounding 1.1010 to restrict the further upside. Overall, EURUSD remains on the bear’s radar beneath 1.1010 while 1.0790 acts as an immediate key upside hurdle.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD fades bounce off 200-SMA as EU/US inflation clues loomEURUSD marked the biggest daily gain in a week the previous day while bouncing off the 200-SMA as the Eurozone data came in overall positive while the US statistics mostly disappointed. Also allowing the Euro pair to rebound from the key SMA level is the consolidation ahead of today’s first readings of the EU inflation data and the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, also known as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) favorite inflation gauge. That said, the quote’s inability to defend the previous day’s rebound joins the bearish MACD signals and unimpressive RSI conditions to lure the bears. However, a daily closing beneath the 200-SMA support of 1.0787 becomes necessary for the seller’s return. It’s worth noting that a five-month-old resistance-turned-support line near 1.0790 and an upward-sloping trend line stretched from mid-April, close to 1.0750, act as additional downside filters. Should the pair sellers keep control past 1.0750, February’s low of 1.0694 and the yearly bottom marked in April around 1.0600 will be in the spotlight. Alternatively, the EURUSD pair’s recovery remains elusive beneath a downward-sloping resistance line from early January, close to 1.0885 at the latest. That said, the 1.0900 threshold also stands tall to test the Euro bulls before directing them toward March’s peak of near 1.0980 and the 1.1000 psychological magnet. Furthermore, the quote’s successful trading beyond the 1.1000 mark allows the bulls to challenge the late 2023 top surrounding 1.1140, as well as the previous yearly peak of 1.1275. To sum up, the EURUSD pair remains weak within a short-term trading range ahead of the key EU/US data.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold remains vulnerable to further downside, $2,306 eyedGold slides beneath a four-week-old rising support line while extending the previous day’s fall amid a firmer US Dollar early Thursday. That said, the bullion marked the biggest daily loss in a week and snapped a three-day winning streak on Wednesday. It should be noted that the quote’s latest support break joins the bearish MACD signals and steady RSI to keep sellers hopeful. As a result, a convergence of an eight-week-old rising support line and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), close to $2,306, gains the market’s attention. If at all the precious metal remains weak past $2,306, the monthly bottom of $2,277 and the early April swing low surrounding $2,265 will act as the last defense of the buyers. On the contrary, the XAUUSD’s corrective bounce needs to provide a daily closing beyond the support-turned-resistance line, near $2,340 by the press time, to convince the buyers. Even so, a slew of resistances around $2,360 and $2,390 will challenge the Gold price upside before highlighting a seven-week-old horizontal resistance area surrounding $2,433. Following that, the recent high of near $2,450 and the $2,500 threshold should lure the bulls. To sum up, the Gold price signals further downside but a clear break of $2,306 becomes necessary to defeat the bulls at least for the short term.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD seesaws within rising wedge despite upbeat Australia CPIAUDUSD makes rounds to mid-0.6600s early Wednesday despite witnessing better-than-forecast Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from Australia. In doing so, the Aussie pair flirts with a horizontal support zone comprising multiple levels marked since early January, close to 0.6645-40. The pair’s latest weakness could be linked to the bearish MACD signals and a steady RSI (14) line. However, the sellers need validation from a nine-week-old rising wedge bearish chart formation between 0.6610 and 0.6720 to retake control. Even so, a convergence of the 100-SMA and the 50-SMA, near 0.6560, will be a tough nut to crack for the bears. Meanwhile, the AUDUSD pair’s rebound from the aforementioned support zone surrounding 0.6645-40 could quickly reclaim the 0.6700 round figure ahead of challenging the bearish chart pattern by poking the 0.6720 upside hurdle. If the quote remains firmer past 0.6720, it will also portray a bullish crossover among the moving averages and suggest further advances. That said, the 0.6800 round figure might test the Aussie pair’s upside past 0.6720 before directing it to the late 2023 peak around 0.6870. Overall, a lack of conviction in the upbeat Aussie inflation signals and downbeat oscillators keep AUDUSD sellers hopeful within a bearish chart pattern. However, the road toward the south appears long and bumpy.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY retreats within rising wedge on US holidayUSDJPY snaps a three-day winning streak early Monday even as markets lack momentum amid holidays in the US and the UK. In doing so, the Yen pair pares the previous weekly gains as mixed concerns about the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) next move join a cautious mood ahead of this week’s key inflation clues from Japan and the US. It should be observed that the USDJPY pair’s latest pullback takes place from the resistance line of a three-week-old rising wedge bearish chart pattern. The retreat also gained support from the RSI (14) line’s fall from the overbought territory and the bearish MACD signals, which in turn suggests a continuation of the quote’s latest declines toward the 156.00 threshold. However, a convergence of the stated wedge’s bottom line and the 200-SMA, near the 155.25-15 region, closely followed by the 155.00 round figure, will be strong support for the bears to conquer before taking control. Should the pair remain weak past 155.00, a five-week-old rising support line near 152.6 and the monthly low of near 151.85 will be in the spotlight. Meanwhile, the USDJPY pair’s fresh recovery needs a clear rejection of the rising wedge bearish chart pattern by crossing the 157.30 immediate hurdle. Even so, the monthly high near 158.00, the 160.00 threshold, and the recent peak of near 160.20, as well as the year 1990 top surrounding 160.40, will offer intermediate halts during the quote’s further run-up. Overall, USDJPY is likely to witness a pullback in prices but the downside remains elusive beyond 155.00.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD bulls jostle with key upside hurdles within rising wedgeGBPUSD struggles to extend the biggest weekly gains since early March while confronting a five-week-old horizontal resistance area surrounding 1.2700-2710 early Monday. In doing so, the Pound Sterling takes clues from the overbought RSI (14) and the sluggish MACD signals while hovering near the upper end of the one-month-old rising wedge bearish chart formation. It’s worth noting that the pair’s upside clearance of 1.2710 won’t be an open invitation to the Cable buyers as the stated wedge’s top-line surrounding 1.2720 will test the upside momentum. Following that, the quote’s advances toward the late March high of near 1.2800 and then to the yearly peak of around 1.2895 can’t be ruled out. It’s worth mentioning, however, that the oscillators suggest a pullback in the GBPUSD price and hence a horizontal resistance area comprising the tops marked since early May, close to 1.2635-45, gains the market’s attention. In a case where the Cable prices drop beneath the 1.2635, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of March-April fall, surrounding the 1.2600 threshold, will lure the sellers. Above all, a convergence of the 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the aforementioned rising wedge’s lower line, close to 1.2565-60, appears a tough nut to crack for the pair sellers, a break of which will confirm the bearish chart pattern suggesting a theoretical fall targeting the area surrounding mid-1.2100s. In summary, the GBPUSD pair will likely witness a pullback in the prices but the bears need validation from the 1.2565-60 and the UK inflation/PMI data.
by MTradingGlobal
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AUDUSD bulls need validation from 0.6720 to keep the reinsAUDUSD bulls struggle to keep command at the highest level since January as a jump in the Aussie Unemployment Rate supersedes upbeat Employment Change data from the Pacific major and challenges the previous day’s run-up. That said, the risk-barometer pair marked the biggest daily rise in six months on Thursday after softer US inflation and Retail Sales numbers drowned the US Dollar. The Aussie pair’s upside also took clues from hopes about more stimulus from China. Technically, the upbeat RSI (14) and the bullish MACD signals join the AUDUSD pair’s upside break of a four-month-old horizontal resistance, now immediate support near 0.6645-40, to keep the buyers hopeful. However, a downward-sloping resistance line from early February 2023, near 0.6720 by the press time, challenges the quote’s immediate upside. Following that, the pair’s quick run-up toward the yearly high of 0.6839 and then to the late 2023 peak surrounding 0.6870 can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, the March 2024 peak of near 0.6665 acts as immediate support for the pair traders to watch ahead of the aforementioned resistance-turned-support near 0.6645-40. It’s worth noting that a one-month-old rising support line of around 0.6610, quickly followed by the 0.6600 threshold, will act as the final defense of the AUDUSD buyers before giving control to the sellers. Overall, the AUDUSD pair remains on the bull’s radar but the pair’s further upside hinges on a daily closing beyond 0.6720.
by MTradingGlobal
100-SMA tests EURUSD bulls ahead of EU GDP, US CPIEURUSD rises to the highest level in five weeks, up for the third consecutive day, as traders await the second reading of the Eurozone Q1 GDP and the US headline inflation number, namely the Consumer Price Index (CPI). In doing so, the Euro pair justifies the previous day’s successful clearance of the 200-SMA hurdle, backed by the upside RSI (14) line and the bullish MACD signals. However, the 100-SMA and a downward-sloping resistance line from late December 2023, close to 1.0825 and 1.0835 respectively, challenge the pair buyers. Following that, the quote’s gradual run-up toward the highs marked in April and March, around 1.0885 and 1.0985 in that order, can’t be ruled out. It should be observed, however, that a slew of hurdles near the 1.1000 threshold will challenge the pair’s upside past 1.0985, if not then bulls can aim for a late 2023 high of around 1.1140. On the contrary, a convergence of the 200-SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement of the October-December 2023 upside, near 1.0795-90, restricts the short-term downside of the EURUSD pair. Following that, a late April swing high of near 1.0750 and a one-month-old rising support line surrounding 1.0715 will stop the Euro bears from taking control. It’s worth noting that the quote’s sustained weakness past 1.0715 needs validation from the 1.0700 threshold before challenging the yearly low of 1.0600. To sum up, the EURUSD pair is in the uptrend and hence capable of crossing the immediate resistances. However, the surprise element of the US inflation data and little room toward the north require buyers to be cautious.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD pokes nine-week-old resistance as key UK/US data loomGBPUSD regains upside momentum, after posting the first weekly loss in three, as buyers defend the previous week’s reversal from the 20-SMA to poke a downward-sloping resistance line stretched from early March, close to 1.2560 at the latest. The Cable pair’s recovery also takes clues from the bullish MACD signals and the upbeat RSI conditions, not overbought. With this, the Pound Sterling is likely to cross the immediate upside hurdle and aim for the 100-SMA resistance of 1.2633. Following that, the 1.2700 threshold and late March’s swing high near 1.2800 could test the buyers before directing them to the yearly top surrounding 1.2895. Meanwhile, the quote’s pullback needs validation from the 20-SMA support of 1.2495 to convince sellers. Even so, the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci ratios of the Cable pair’s run-up from October 2023 to March 2024, respectively near 1.2460 and 1.2365, will challenge the bears. It’s worth noting that the yearly bottom marked in April, close to 1.2300, appears the last defense of the GBPUSD buyers, a break of which will open doors for the pair’s gradual fall toward the late 2023 swing low of near 1.2030 and then to the 1.2000 psychological magnet. Overall, GBPUSD remains on the front foot despite last week’s failure to cross the aforementioned resistance line. However, the technical formation also needs support from the UK employment report and the US inflation clues to convince the bulls.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY pokes key resistance, US inflation, Japan's GDP eyedUSDJPY jostles with a fortnight-old horizontal resistance as buyers turn cautious ahead of this week’s US inflation and the first readings of Japan’s Q1 2024 GDP. In doing so, the Yen pair struggles to extend the previous week’s recovery from the 50-SMA. That said, the near-50 RSI levels join the receding strength of the bearish MACD signals to suggest a continuation of the quote’s latest rebound within the bullish trend channel comprising levels marked since late 2023. It’s worth noting, however, that a clear upside break of the immediate 155.20-156.00 resistance zone becomes necessary for the bulls to retake control. In that case, the upper line of the previously stated bullish channel, close to 159.00 by the press time, will precede the 160.00 psychological magnet and the year 1990’s peak of 160.40 to lure the buyers. Meanwhile, softer US inflation and upbeat Japan growth numbers could trigger the USDJPY pair’s retreat toward the mid-April swing highs around 154.80. However, the 50-SMA and the aforementioned bullish channel’s bottom line, respectively near 152.50 and 152.00, could challenge the Yen pair sellers afterward. In a case where the quote remains bearish past 152.00, the 150.00 threshold will act as the final defense of the buyers. Overall, the USDJPY pair remains bullish, despite the latest inaction, but the upside room remains limited.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD drops toward key support line near 1.0600 on Fed DayEURUSD remains pressured at the lowest level in a week, extending the late April’s retreat from 20-SMA and a six-month-old support-turned-resistance, as traders await the US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy announcements. The Euro pair’s weakness also takes clues from an impending bear cross on the MACD and an absence of oversold RSI conditions. With this, the quote is likely to extend the latest fall toward an ascending support line stretched from early October 2023, close to 1.0610 at the latest. Following that, the yearly low marked in April around 1.0600 and multiple lows registered during late 2023 near 1.0520 and 1.0490 will test the bears before directing them toward the previous yearly low of 1.0448. Alternatively, the US Fed’s inability to inspire the EURUSD bulls, mainly amid the high hopes, could trigger a quick recovery in the pair prices toward the 20-SMA hurdle of 1.0710. However, the quote’s further upside needs validation from the previous support line stretched from early November 2023 surrounding 1.0740. It should be noted that a convergence of the 200-SMA and 50-SMA, near the 1.0800 threshold at the latest, appears a tough nut to crack for the buyers, a clear break of which will enable them to confront the final defense of the sellers, namely a downward-sloping resistance line from December 2023, near 1.0865 as we write. To sum up, the EURUSD is on the way to testing the key support line as market players await the FOMC verdict. However, high hopes from the US central bank and a limited downside room for the pair suggest hardships for the sellers past 1.0600.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY refreshes 34-year high on BoJ’s dovish haltUSDJPY prints a three-day winning streak while rising to a fresh high since 1990 as it justifies the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) dovish halt. That said, the BoJ kept its benchmark rates unchanged, as expected, but omitted the mention of bond buying operations which were anticipated to suggest the Japanese central bank’s hawkish turn. With this, the Yen pair pokes an upward-sloping resistance line stretched from early December, around 155.90 at the latest. Given the overbought RSI conditions and the recently easing bullish bias of the MACD, the quote is likely to witness a pullback, which in turn highlights the 155.00 threshold and the mid-month peak surrounding 154.80. However, the bottom line of a six-week-old rising wedge bearish chart formation, close to 154.20 as we write, will be the key to watch for the seller’s entry. In a case where the pair remains weak past 154.20, a six-month-old horizontal support line near 151.70 will precede an area comprising multiple levels marked since early February, around 150.90-80, to challenge the pair bears. Above all, the USDJPY pair buyers should remain hopeful unless witnessing a daily closing beneath an ascending trend line from late December 2023, near 150.30 at the latest. On the contrary, a successful upside break of the aforementioned multi-month-old resistance line surrounding 155.90 will need validation from the top line of a short-term rising wedge bearish chart formation, near 156.10. Should the USDJPY pair buyers ignore overbought RSI and keep the reins past 156.10, the odds of witnessing a gradual run-up toward the 160.00 psychological magnet and then to the year 1990 peak of 160.40 can’t be ruled out. Overall, the USDJPY pair remains bullish beyond 150.30 but a short-term pullback appears overdue.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD approaches 200-SMA hurdle on strong Australia inflationAUDUSD rises to the highest level in a week, up for the third consecutive day, as Australia Inflation numbers for March defend hawkish bias about the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and underpin the Australian Dollar (AUD) strength. However, the overbought RSI could join the 200-SMA hurdle of 0.6535 to cap short-term upside of the Aussie pair. Following that, a downward-sloping resistance line from early January, close to 0.6615 by the press time, will precede a 15-week-old horizontal resistance area surrounding 0.6640-45 to challenge the buyers. In a case where the quote remains firmer past 0.6645, the previous monthly high of near 0.6670 will act as the final defense of the bears. Meanwhile, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s downturn from December 2023, close to 0.6480, put a short-term floor under the AUDUSD prices. Also acting as an immediate downside support is a one-week-long rising support line near 0.6460. It should be noted that February’s bottom of 0.6440 will act as an intermediate halt during the quote’s weakness past 0.6460 before targeting the yearly low marked the last week around 0.6360. Overall, AUDUSD justifies upbeat Australia inflation but the pair’s further upside appears challenging.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD extends recovery on mixed data but stays on bear's radarAUDUSD prints mild gains around mid-0.6400s despite mixed outcomes of the Aussie employment report and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) quarterly Bulletin. In doing so, the risk-barometer pair also cheers the US Dollar’s pullback, as well as cautious optimism in the market, while defending the previous day’s rebound from 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of October 2022 to February 2023 upside. It’s worth noting, however, that bearish MACD signals and the quote’s sustained trading beneath the support-turned-line stretched from early November, close to 0.6510 at the latest, challenge the buyers. Even if the pair manages to remain firmer past 0.6510, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.6550 and a 3.5-month-old horizontal resistance zone surrounding 0.6640-50 will be crucial for the bulls to cross before retaking control. Meanwhile, the AUDUSD pair’s fresh selling could aim for the retest of 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level surrounding 0.6380. Following that, the nearly oversold RSI (14) and an ascending support trend line stretched from late 2022, around 0.6350 at the latest, will be the key test for the bears. Should the quote remain weak past 0.6350, the odds of witnessing a slower grind toward the previous yearly low of 0.6270 and the year 2022 bottom of 0.6170 can’t be ruled out. Overall, the AUDUSD pair’s latest rebound could be considered an opportunity for fresh selling. However, the fundamentals need to be watched carefully before taking positions.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD hovers at five-month low, UK Inflation, BoE’s Bailey eyedGBPUSD traders lick their wounds at the lowest level in five months early Wednesday as the monthly UK inflation data, namely the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and a speech from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey loom. Apart from the pre-data anxiety, the oversold RSI (14) also challenges the Pound Sterling sellers at a multi-day bottom. With this, the corrective bounce can aim for the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the Cable’s run-up from September 2023 to March 2024, close to 1.2465, if backed by upbeat UK data and hawkish comments from BoE’s Bailey. It’s worth noting, however, that an ascending resistance line from early December, previous support around 1.2545, will precede the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level of 1.2565 to test the buyers afterward. Above all, a convergence of the 50-EMA and a five-week-old downward-sloping trend line, near 1.2625 at the latest, appears a tough nut to crack for the bulls before retaking control. On the contrary, downbeat UK inflation clues and BoE Governor Bailey’s failure to convince policy hawks could join the bearish MACD signals to exert downside pressure on the GBPUSD pair. In that case, a horizontal area comprising lows marked in November 2023, close to 1.2370-75, will lure the Pound Sterling bears. Following that, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and October 2023 peak, respectively near 1.2365 and 1.2330, could test the sellers. In a case where the quote remains weak past 1.2330, the odds of witnessing a southward trajectory toward the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and then to the previous yearly low, near 1.2220 and 1.2035 in that order, can’t be ruled out. Overall, GBPUSD bears appear running out of steam but the road toward the north appears long and bumpy.
by MTradingGlobal
Monthly bullish megaphone keeps Gold buyers hopefulGold price resumes its upward trajectory within a fortnight-old bullish megaphone chart pattern after a volatile day that initially refreshed an all-time high before posting the biggest daily loss in two months. That said, the XAUUSD’s corrective bounce also takes clues from a rebound in the RSI (14) line. However, bullish MACD signals and cautious mood ahead of the US Retail Sales tests the bullion’s recovery moves. It should be noted that 100% Fibonacci Extension (FE) of the quote’s February-March moves, near the $2,400 threshold, currently lures the buyers. However, the aforementioned megaphone’s top line, close to $2,441 at the latest, will challenge the precious metal’s upside afterward. Following that, the commodity’s run-up toward the $2,500 round figure can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, the Gold price sellers need a clear downside break of the stated wedge’s bottom line, around $2,336 by the press time. Following that, the 61.8% and 50% FE level will entertain the XAUUSD bears around $2,305 and $2,277 respectively. However, a convergence of the 100-SMA and an upward-sloping support line from February 28, near $2,265, appears a tough nut to crack for the precious metal sellers. In a case where the quote remains weak past $2,265, the odds of witnessing a quick fall toward March’s peaks of around $2,222 and $2,195 appear brighter. Overall, the Gold price lacks upside momentum but the sellers stay off the table beyond $2,265.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD pares the biggest daily loss in 13 months on ECB DayWednesday’s strong US inflation data and hawkish Fed Minutes portrayed the EURUSD pair’s biggest daily slump since March 2023. Even so, the Euro pair failed to conquer a five-month-old rising support line, close to 1.0730 by the press time. The inability to break important support joins the market’s consolidation ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) Interest Rate Decision to trigger the quote’s corrective bounce. However, the below 50.00 status of the RSI (14) line joins the bearish MACD signals to challenge the bullish bias, which in turn highlights the aforementioned 1.0730 support for the sellers to watch. Following that, the yearly low of 1.0695 and the mid-November 2023 bottom surrounding 1.0655 will act as the final defenses of the bulls. On the contrary, a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s October-December 2023 upside, close to 1.0795, quickly followed by the 1.0800 threshold, cap the immediate upside of the EURUSD. Even if the quote manages to remain firmer past 1.0800, 200-SMA and 100-SMA will challenge the Euro buyers around 1.0830 and 1.0870 respectively. It’s worth noting that the pair’s upside past 1.0870 remains inconclusive for the bulls unless crossing a downward-sloping resistance line stretched from December 2023, near 1.0900 threshold at the latest. To sum up, the EURUSD pair consolidates heavy losses ahead of the key ECB event, as well as the US PPI data. However, the bullish bias appears less convincing below 1.0900, especially when the ECB is likely to announce a dovish halt.
by MTradingGlobal
RSI divergence prods gold bulls, US inflation, Fed Minutes eyedGold price makes rounds to the record top early Wednesday as market players await the all-important US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Minutes of the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting. Apart from the pre-data anxiety, a bearish RSI divergence on the four-hour chart also challenges the XAUUSD buyers. That said, the lower low in the RSI (14) line contrasts with the higher high in the bullion prices to portray the bearish divergence and tease the sellers. However, a week-long bullish trend channel, currently between $2,314 and $2,375, restricts the precious metal’s short-term moves. Even if the prices drop beneath the $2,314 support, the bears need validation from the $2,300 threshold and convergence of the 100-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a 1.5-month-old rising trend line, close to $2,245-42, to retake control. Meanwhile, a fresh upside in the Gold price could aim for the stated bullish channel’s top line, around $2,375 at the latest. Following that, the 100% Fibonacci Extension (FE) of the quote’s February-March moves, near $2,398, will precede the $2,400 threshold to lure the XAUUSD buyers. It’s worth noting that the precious metal’s advances past $2,400 won’t hesitate to aim for the $2,500 psychological magnet. Overall, the Gold buyers are running out of steam ahead of this week’s top-tier data/events.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
NZDUSD grinds higher past 0.6000 ahead of RBNZ, US InflationNZDUSD remains positive around 0.6035-40 early Tuesday, despite lacking upside momentum of late. In doing so, the Kiwi pair defends the previous week’s rebound from the lowest level since November 2023 while portraying the trader’s anxiety ahead of Wednesday’s monetary policy announcements from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and the US inflation data, namely the Consumer Price Index (CPI). It should be noted that the recovery in price takes the support of the upbeat RSI (14) conditions and the bullish MACD signals, which in turn suggests brighter chances of the quote’s further advances. However, the 200-SMA and a five-month-old previous support line, respectively near 0.6070 and 0.6115, appear tough nuts to crack for the bulls. In a case where the buyers manage to keep the reins past 0.6115, the odds of witnessing a gradual run-up toward a four-month-old horizontal resistance area surrounding 0.6220 can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the quote’s October-November upside, close to the 0.6000 psychological magnet, restricts the immediate downside of the NZDUSD pair. Following that, the aforementioned horizontal area comprising lows marked since mid-November 2023, near 0.5940, will be the key challenge for the Kiwi pair sellers to pass before retaking control. Should the pair remain bearish past 0.5940, the November 14 low of around 0.5860 will act as the final defense of the buyers before driving prices down to the previous yearly bottom of 0.5773. Overall, the NZDUSD pair is likely to extend the latest rebound ahead of the RBNZ and the US CPI, unless the output of the data/events suggests otherwise.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY bulls eye multi-day-old resistance line and US InflationUSDJPY picks up bids within a fortnight-old trading range while defending the previous day’s rebound from a 150.80-90 support confluence, comprising the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and multiple levels marked in the last two months. The Yen pair’s recovery also justifies the upbeat RSI (14) line and inspires buyers to poke an upward-sloping resistance line stretched from late October 2023, close to 152.00 by the press time. However, the impending bear cross on the MACD challenges the quote’s further upside. In a case where the pair remains firmer past 152.00, the 61.8% Fibonacci Extension (FE) of its moves between December 2023 and March 2024, near 153.10, will be on the bull’s radar ahead of the 78.6% FE level surrounding 154.85. Meanwhile, the USDJPY pair’s daily closing beneath the 150.80 support confluence will need validation from the 38.2% FE level of 150.55 and the 150.00 threshold. Following that, January’s peak surrounding 148.80 and the previous monthly low near 146.50 could lure the Yen pair sellers. It’s worth noting that February’s bottom of 145.90 acts as the final defense of the pair buyers, a break of which will make the quote vulnerable to drop toward the 140.00 psychological magnet. Overall, the USDJPY is likely to remain firmer but the buyers appear running out of steam and hence this week’s US inflation data, namely the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March, will be crucial to watch for clear directions.
by MTradingGlobal