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DIIs Buying Every Day: What They Are Buying in a Falling Market?Hello Traders! In today's post, let's talk about an interesting phenomenon in the Indian stock market. Despite the market showing signs of falling , we are consistently seeing DIIs (Domestic Institutional Investors) buying in large quantities every day, with numbers around 3,000-4,000 crores daily. So, what does this tell us? Why are DIIs continuing to buy despite the market's decline? Key Points to Understand: DIIs are investing heavily: While retail investors and FIIs may be cautious or pulling back, DIIs are buying, possibly indicating that they believe the current market price is undervalued. Tracking their moves: To understand where the money is flowing, we need to track the stocks that DIIs are buying. Are they focusing on large-cap stocks, sectors with growth potential, or defensive sectors? Possible market confidence: This continuous buying might signal confidence from domestic institutions, showing they believe in the long-term growth potential despite short-term volatility. What does this mean for us?: As retail traders, it’s crucial to track DII buying patterns to align our strategies with their actions. If DIIs are buying into a stock or sector, it could be a strong signal that it’s worth considering for your portfolio. How to Track DII Purchases: Follow the DII data: Most financial platforms and stock market websites show DII buying/selling data regularly. Look for trends: If the same stocks are being purchased consistently, there could be something significant happening in those companies. Be patient: Even if the market seems to be in a downtrend, the sustained buying by DIIs can provide confidence for long-term investors. Conclusion: DIIs are not just following the market, they are actively buying in the face of adversity, and this can be a crucial indicator of future market movement. Keep an eye on what they are buying every day, and align your strategies accordingly. Remember, they are in the market for the long-term, and if they believe in it, we should too.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by TraderRahulPal
6
Axis Bank - Reversal from Support? Bullish Continuation Ahead!Axis Bank weekly chart shows a potential reversal setup as it tests key support levels: the lower boundary of an ascending channel and the 200-week EMA. If bullish confirmation emerges, this could present an excellent swing trade opportunity. Let me know your thoughts in the comments! #AXISBANK #TechnicalAnalysis #SwingTrading" Key Observations: 1. Ascending Channel Support: - The price is currently testing the **lower boundary of the ascending channel**, which has acted as dynamic support since 2020. 2. 200-Week EMA Support: - The **200-week EMA is providing additional support, reinforcing the likelihood of a bounce from this level. 3. Bullish Structure Intact: - Despite the recent correction, the overall trend remains bullish as long as the price respects the channel's lower boundary. 5. **Upside Potential**: - If the reversal materializes, the price could aim for the midline of the channel and eventually retest the upper boundary. --- Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
NSE:AXISBANKLong
by PhD_Swingtrader
The Inside Out InvestorThere is a common misconception that investing in stocks is always stressful and emotionally overwhelming. Many people think that this activity is only available to extremely resilient people or crazy people. In fact, if you know the answers to three key questions, investing becomes a rather boring activity. Let me remind you of them below: 1. Which stocks to choose? 2. At what price should the trade be made? 3. In what volume? As for me, most of the time, I'm just in waiting mode. First, I wait for the company's business to start showing sustainable growth dynamics in profits and other fundamental indicators. Then, I wait for a sell-off of strong company shares at unreasonably low prices. Of course, this requires a lot of patience and a positive outlook on the future. That's why I believe that being young is one of the key advantages of being a beginner investor. The younger you are, the more time you have to wait. However, we still have to get to this boring state. And if you've embarked on this long journey, expect to encounter many emotions that will test your strength. To help me understand them, I came up with the following map. Next I will comment on each of its elements from left to right. Free Cash horizontal line (from 0% to 100%) - X axis When you first open and fund a brokerage account, your Free Cash is equal to 100% of the account. Then it will gradually decrease as you buy shares. If Free Cash is 0%, then all your money in the account was invested in shares. In short, it is a scale of how much your portfolio is loaded with stocks. Vertical line Alpha - Y axis Alpha is the ratio of the change in your portfolio to the change in an alternative portfolio that you do not own but use as a reference (in other words, a benchmark). For example, such a benchmark could be an ETF (exchange-traded fund) on the S&P500 index if you invest in wide US market stocks. Buying an ETF does not require any effort on your part as a manager, so it is useful to compare the performance of such an asset with the performance of your portfolio and calculate Alpha. In this example, it is the ratio of your portfolio's return to the return of the S&P 500 ETF. At the level where Alpha is zero, there is a horizontal Free Cash line. Above this line is positive Alpha (in which case you are outperforming the broader market), below zero is negative Alpha (in which case your portfolio is outperforming the benchmark). Let me clarify that the portfolio yield includes the financial result for both open and closed positions. Fear of the button This is the emotion that blocks the sending of an order to buy shares. Being captivated by this emotion, you will be afraid to press this button, realizing that investing in shares does not guarantee a positive result at all. In other words, you may lose some of your money irretrievably. This fear is absolutely justified. If you feel this way, consider the size of your stock investment account and the percentage amount you are willing to lose. Remember to diversify your portfolio. If you can't find a balance between account size, acceptable loss, and diversification, don't press the button. Come back to her when you're ready. Enthusiasm At this stage, you have a high share of Free Cash, and you also have your first open positions in stocks. Your Alpha is positive. You are not afraid to press the button, but there is a certain excitement about the future result. The state of enthusiasm is quite fragile and can quickly turn into a state of FOMO if Alpha moves into the negative zone. Therefore, it is critical to continue learning the chosen strategy at this stage. A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. FOMO FOMO is a common acronym used to describe a psychological condition known as fear of missing out. In the stock market, this manifests itself as fear of missing out. This condition is typical for a portfolio with a high proportion of Free Cash and negative Alpha. As the benchmark's return outpaces your portfolio's return, you will be in a nervous state. The main worry will be that you didn't buy the stocks that are currently the growth leaders. You will be tempted to deviate from your chosen strategy and take a chance on buying something on the off chance. To get rid of this condition, you need to understand that the stock market has existed for hundreds of years, and thousands of companies trade on it. Every year, new companies emerge, as well as new investment opportunities. Remind yourself that you are not here for one million dollar deal, but for systematic work with opportunities that will always be there. Zen The most desirable state of an investor is when he understands all the details of the chosen strategy and has effective experience in its application. This is expressed in positive Alpha and excellent mood. Taking the time to manage your portfolio, developing habits and a disciplined approach will bring satisfaction and the feeling that you are on the right track. At this stage, it is important to maintain this state, and not to chase after thrills. Disappointment This stage is a mirror of the Zen state. It can develop from the FOMO stage, especially if you break your own rules and invest on luck. It can also be caused by a sharp deterioration in the condition of a portfolio, which was doing well in the Zen state. If everything is clear in the first case, and you just need to stop acting weird , then in the second situation you should remember why you ended up in a state of Zen. Investments are always a series of profitable and unprofitable trades. However, losing trades cannot be considered a failure if they were made in accordance with the principles of the chosen strategy. Just keep following the accepted rules to win in the long run. Also remember that Mr. Market is crazy enough to offer prices that seem absurd to you. Yes, this can negatively affect your Alpha, but at the same time provide opportunities to open new positions according to the chosen strategy. Euphoria Another way out of the Zen state is called Euphoria. This is typical dizziness from success. At this stage you have little Free Cash, a large share of stocks in your portfolio and phenomenally positive Alpha. You feel like a king and lose your composure. That is why this stage is marked in red. In a state of euphoria, you may feel like everything you touch turns to gold. You feel the desire to take a risk and play for luck. You don't want to close positions with good profits. Furthermore, you think you can close at the highs and make even more money. You are deviating from the chosen strategy, which is fraught with major negative consequences. It only takes a few non-systemic decisions to push your Alpha into the negative zone and find yourself in a state of disappointment. If your ego doesn't stop there, the decline may continue. Tilt A prolonged state of disappointment or a rapid fall of Alpha from the Euphoria stage can lead to the most negative psycho-emotional state called Tilt. This term is widely used in the game of poker, but can also be used in investments. While in this state, the investor does everything out of strategy, his actions are chaotic and in many ways aggressive. He thinks the stock market owes him something. The investor cannot stop his irrational actions, trying to regain his former success or get out of a series of failures in the shortest possible time. This usually ends in big losses. It is better to inform your loved ones in advance that such a condition exists. Don't be embarrassed by this, even if you think you are immune to such situations. A person in a state of tilt withdraws into himself and acts in a state of affect. Therefore, it is significant to bring him out of this state and show that the outside world exists and has its own unique value. Now let's talk about your expectations, as they largely determine your attitude towards investing. Never turn your positive expectations into a benchmark. The stock market is an element that is absolutely indifferent to our forecasts. Even strong companies can fall in price if there is a shortage of liquidity in the market. In times of crisis, everyone suffers, but the most prepared suffer the least. Therefore, the main task of a smart investor is to work on himself until the moment he presses the coveted button. There will always be a chance to do this. As I said, the market will not disappear tomorrow. But to use this chance wisely, you need to be prepared. This means that you should have an answer to all three questions above. Then you will definitely catch your Zen.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by Be_Capy
Options Trading vs. Stock Trading: Which is Right for You?Hello Traders! In today’s post, we’re going to compare Options Trading vs. Stock Trading. Both strategies can be profitable, but they come with different risk profiles, time commitments, and potential for returns. Let’s dive into the key differences and help you decide which trading method aligns with your financial goals and risk tolerance. Stock Trading: The Classic Approach Stock trading is the act of buying and selling stocks to capitalize on price movements. As an investor, you own a share of the company and benefit from its growth or dividends over time. Stock trading is widely recognized as the foundation of the market and remains one of the most common forms of trading. Key Characteristics of Stock Trading: Long-Term Investment Strategy: Stock traders tend to hold their positions for a longer duration, from weeks to years. Ownership of the Asset: When you buy stocks, you own a part of the company, which may yield dividends or appreciate over time. Moderate Risk and Return: Stock trading typically provides consistent, moderate returns , but the risks are lower compared to options. Requires Patience: Stock trading is ideal for those who are patient and willing to hold onto their investments through market fluctuations. Options Trading: Leverage and Flexibility Options trading involves buying or selling options contracts, which give you the right (but not the obligation) to buy or sell an underlying asset at a predetermined price within a specified time frame. It offers greater leverage, meaning you can control more stock with less capital. However, this leverage comes with higher risk. Key Characteristics of Options Trading: Leverage Potential: Options allow you to control larger positions with a smaller initial investment. Time Sensitivity: Options have expiration dates, which means the price movement must happen within a limited time frame. Higher Risk, Higher Reward: With leverage, options can yield higher profits, but the potential for loss is also greater, especially when options expire worthless. Flexibility in Strategy: Options offer a range of strategies, including covered calls, straddles, and spreads , that can help manage risk and maximize profit. Active Management Required: Options traders need to monitor their positions frequently due to the time-sensitive nature of the trades. Which Is Better? Stock Trading or Options Trading? Both strategies have their advantages depending on your goals and trading style. Here’s a comparison: Stock Trading: Ideal for Long-Term Investors: Stock trading is suitable for traders looking for steady returns over time with relatively low risk. Less Complexity: Stock trading is simpler and easier to understand compared to options, making it more accessible for beginners. Lower Risk per Trade: The risk is limited to the amount invested in the stock, and the price movement is easier to predict. Options Trading: Higher Potential Returns in a Shorter Time Frame: Options provide the ability to profit from short-term price movements with higher leverage , leading to potentially higher returns. Requires Skill and Active Management: Options require more expertise and constant monitoring to manage risk and maximize returns. Higher Risk, Higher Reward: While the potential for returns is greater, options trading involves a higher level of risk, and you could lose your entire investment. Conclusion: Which is Right for You? Choosing between options trading and stock trading depends on your personal trading goals, risk tolerance, and time availability. Stock trading is ideal if you want to take a long-term approach, avoid complexity, and hold your positions for steady, moderate growth. Options trading is for those who want to utilize leverage for potentially higher returns and are willing to actively manage their trades. What’s your trading preference? Are you more inclined towards stock trading or options trading ? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below!
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by TraderRahulPal
1
MARKSANS Pharma – Is the Pullback Over? Watch for the Next Move!Hello everyone! I hope you’re all doing great! 😊 Today, I’ve got an exciting setup for you – MARKSANS PHARMA! After a period of consolidation, MARKSANS Pharma is showing signs of a potential breakout! The stock has been trading in a range between 251 (support) and 279 (resistance), and it looks like we’re finally seeing the bulls take control. Here’s what’s happening: The stock has recently tested the 279 resistance multiple times, and this time, it managed to break out with decent volume, signaling that the buyers are gaining strength. If this momentum continues, we could be on the verge of a strong uptrend! Key Levels to Watch: Short-Term Target: 279 Second Target: 305 Third Target: 330 Final Target: 357 Best Entry Zone: 251-240 (a pullback to this level could be a golden opportunity!) Stop Loss: 217 (always manage your risk!) Fundamental View: MARKSANS Pharma has been posting solid quarterly earnings, with steady revenue growth driven by strong demand in key segments. The company continues to expand and capture market share, especially in emerging markets. While risks like raw material costs and competition exist, the company's financial health and growth trajectory suggest it has strong upside potential from here. What’s Next? As long as the price holds above the 251-240 range, the bullish momentum should continue. If we see a pullback towards this zone, it could provide another entry point before the stock moves higher. What do you think? Will MARKSANS Pharma hit 357 soon? Drop your thoughts in the comments below! Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Please trade responsibly and consult a financial advisor before making any decisions. If you found this analysis helpful, don’t forget to like, follow, and share your thoughts in the comments below! Your support keeps me motivated to share more insights. Let’s grow and learn together—happy trading!
NSE:MARKSANSLong
by TraderRahulPal
Bull Market vs. Bear Market: How to Trade Both Successfully!Bull Market vs. Bear Market: How to Trade Both Successfully! Hello everyone! I hope you're all doing great in life and in your trading journey. Today, I bring an educational post on Bull Market vs. Bear Market —two crucial phases that every trader and investor must understand. Whether the market is rising or falling, having a strategy for both conditions is essential for success. Let’s break down the key differences, trading strategies, and opportunities in each market! Bull Market vs. Bear Market: Key Differences Market Direction: Bull Market → A period when stock prices rise consistently , reflecting strong economic growth and investor confidence. Demand is higher than supply, pushing stock prices upward. Bear Market → A period when stock prices fall continuously , usually due to economic downturns, high inflation, or external shocks. Fear dominates, and investors pull money out of the markets. Trader & Investor Sentiment: Bull Market → Optimism is high, and traders are willing to take more risks . Investors have a buy-and-hold mentality , expecting further gains. Bear Market → Pessimism dominates, leading to panic selling . Investors focus on preserving capital instead of taking risks. Risk & Reward: Bull Market → Higher rewards , as most stocks trend upward. Corrections are usually short-lived, allowing traders to capitalize on price increases. Bear Market → Higher risk , as market volatility increases. Stocks tend to fall sharply, leading to heavy losses for uninformed traders . Strategy & Approach: Bull Market Trading → Traders focus on momentum stocks, breakouts, and uptrend confirmations . Bear Market Trading → Traders look for short-selling opportunities, hedging strategies, and defensive stocks . Opportunities in Each Market: Bull Market → Growth stocks, tech stocks, IPOs, and high-risk assets thrive in bull markets. Bear Market → Defensive sectors like FMCG, Pharma, Gold, and Bonds perform well. How to Trade in a Bull Market? ✔ Follow the Trend: Buy on dips near support levels and stay in the trade until the trend reverses. ✔ Use Momentum Indicators: RSI, MACD, and Moving Averages help in identifying strong uptrends and overbought conditions. ✔ Focus on Growth Stocks: Tech stocks, finance, and emerging market stocks tend to perform well in a bull market. ✔ Avoid Shorting the Market: Short trades have lower success rates in strong uptrends. Stick with trend-following strategies . ✔ Stay Invested Longer: A long-term buy-and-hold strategy is beneficial in bull markets as prices continue rising. How to Trade in a Bear Market? ✔ Short-Selling Opportunities: Stocks with weak fundamentals fall harder during a bear market, creating opportunities for short trades. ✔ Look for Safe-Haven Assets: Gold, government bonds, and defensive stocks (FMCG, healthcare) tend to hold value. ✔ Use Stop-Loss & Position Sizing: Volatility increases in bear markets, making risk management crucial. ✔ Hedge Your Portfolio: Options strategies like put options, covered calls, and inverse ETFs can help protect investments. ✔ Wait for Signs of Reversal: Don't rush into trades—look for market bottom confirmations using volume, RSI divergence, and trendline breaks . Outcome: Both Bull and Bear Markets present profitable opportunities, but having the right strategy for each condition is key to success. Which market do you find easier to trade— Bull or Bear? Let me know in the comments!
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by TraderRahulPal
2
Charlie Munger’s Investing Wisdom: Long-Term Wealth Secrets!Charlie Munger: The Mastermind Behind Value Investing Hello everyone! I hope you're all doing great in life and in your trading journey. Today, I bring you an educational post on Charlie Munger , the legendary investor, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway , and Warren Buffett’s closest partner. Munger’s mental models, rational decision-making, and value investing approach have made him one of the most respected figures in the financial world. Unlike traders who focus on short-term price movements , Munger believed in long-term investing, compounding wealth, and making high-quality decisions using multidisciplinary thinking. His influence shaped Buffett’s investing strategy , making Berkshire Hathaway a financial powerhouse . Charlie Munger’s Key Investing Principles Think Long-Term: Wealth is built over decades, not days. Munger always focused on buying great businesses and holding them forever . Invest in Quality Companies: He believed in buying businesses with strong fundamentals, competitive advantages, and excellent management . Avoid Stupidity Instead of Seeking Genius: Instead of chasing complex strategies, Munger emphasized avoiding bad investments and making simple, rational decisions . The Power of Compounding: Small, consistent returns over time can lead to massive wealth accumulation . Use Mental Models: Munger applied psychology, economics, history, and other disciplines to make smarter investment decisions. Patience Pays Off: He believed that doing nothing is often the best strategy when there are no great opportunities. Charlie Munger’s Iconic Investments ✔ Coca-Cola (KO) – One of Berkshire Hathaway’s most profitable investments, proving the power of brand value. ✔ Apple (AAPL) – A strategic bet on technology, now a massive wealth creator. ✔ Bank of America (BAC) – Investing in financial institutions with strong balance sheets. ✔ See’s Candies – Munger convinced Buffett to buy this small but highly profitable business, proving the power of moats and pricing power . What This Means for Investors: By following Munger’s principles, traders and investors can develop patience, focus on high-quality businesses, and leverage long-term compounding to grow wealth . Outcome: Applying these lessons can help investors make smarter decisions, avoid costly mistakes, and achieve long-term financial success . What’s your biggest learning from Charlie Munger’s investing philosophy ? Share your thoughts in the comments!
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by TraderRahulPal
2
Trading vs. Investing: Which Strategy Suits You Best?Trading vs. Investing: Which One is Right for You? Hello everyone! I hope you're all doing great in life and in your trading journey. Today, I am bringing an educational post on Trading vs. Investing , two different approaches to making money in the stock market. While both have their advantages, choosing the right one depends on your goals, risk appetite, and strategy . Let’s dive into the key differences and find out which style suits you best! Trading vs. Investing: Key Differences Time Horizon: Traders aim for short-term profits , holding positions for minutes, hours, or days . Investors hold stocks for months or years , focusing on long-term wealth creation . Strategy & Approach: Traders rely on technical analysis, charts, and price patterns to make quick decisions . Investors focus on fundamental analysis , looking at company earnings, management, and growth potential . Risk & Reward: Trading is high risk but can offer quick returns if executed well. Investing involves lower short-term risk but requires patience for long-term gains . Capital & Leverage: Traders often use margin and leverage to amplify gains (but also risk higher losses ). Investors generally avoid leverage , focusing on steady capital appreciation . Emotional Discipline: Trading requires quick decision-making and emotional control to handle volatility . Investing demands patience and the ability to ignore short-term market fluctuations . Who Should Choose What? ✔ Choose Trading if: You prefer fast decision-making, market analysis, and short-term gains . ✔ Choose Investing if: You have patience, believe in long-term wealth building, and prefer lower risk . ✔ Hybrid Approach: Many successful market participants combine both strategies , trading for short-term profits and investing for long-term growth . Outcome: Both trading and investing have their place in the market. There’s no one-size-fits-all approach —the key is understanding your risk tolerance, time commitment, and financial goals . Which one do you prefer? Trading, Investing, or Both? Let me know in the comments!
CRYPTO:BTCUSDEducation
by TraderRahulPal
Radhakishan Damani’s Investing Secrets: The Retail King of IndiaRadhakishan Damani: The Silent Tycoon of Indian Stock Market Hello everyone! I hope you all are doing great in life and in your trading journey. Today, I bring you an educational post on Radhakishan Damani , the billionaire investor, trader, and the visionary behind DMart. Often referred to as the “Retail King of India,” Damani is known for his low-profile yet highly effective investing strategies that have created massive wealth over time. Starting his journey as a stock trader in the 1980s, he quickly understood the power of long-term investing and value buying . Unlike most traders of his time, he adopted a patient and disciplined approach, focusing on strong businesses with scalable growth potential . His investments in consumer-driven businesses have made him one of India’s richest and most successful investors. Radhakishan Damani’s Iconic Stock Picks ✔ Avenue Supermarts (DMART): His biggest success story—DMart revolutionized India's retail industry, making him a billionaire. ✔ VST Industries: A tobacco company that has generated huge returns due to strong cash flow and dividends. ✔ Sundaram Finance: A conservative yet steady wealth compounder in India’s financial sector. ✔ Blue Dart Express: His bet on India's logistics growth played out brilliantly. ✔ HDFC Bank: A long-term wealth generator, riding India's banking sector expansion. Radhakishan Damani’s Key Investing & Trading Principles Invest in Consumer-Focused Businesses: Damani believes that businesses catering to everyday consumer needs offer steady long-term growth. Quality Over Quantity: He focuses on a few high-quality companies rather than diversifying across too many stocks. Patience is Power: Investing is not about quick profits; he holds his investments for decades to maximize wealth. Contrarian Approach: He invests in undervalued stocks when others ignore them, leading to massive gains later. Simplicity Wins: His philosophy is to keep investing simple —buy great businesses, hold them, and let compounding do its magic. Strong Business Models Matter: Damani only invests in companies with solid fundamentals, consistent earnings, and efficient management. What This Means for Traders & Investors: By following Damani’s approach, traders and investors can focus on long-term wealth creation, patience, and identifying businesses with real-world demand. Outcome: Applying these lessons can help traders and investors stay disciplined, avoid unnecessary risks, and build a strong portfolio over time. What’s your biggest learning from Radhakishan Damani’s investing journey? Share your thoughts in the comments!
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by TraderRahulPal
10 tricks for developing discipline or here was WarrenIf you asked me, what is the most valuable trait an investor should have, I would call it the ability to follow your own rules. In other words, it is discipline. A novice investor can learn quickly, know all the features of the chosen strategy from A to Z, but it is unlikely that he will succeed without this trait. So, Warren Buffett called persistence your engine, and discipline the guarantee of a successful future. Imagine that you have sailed to an unusually beautiful island with the goal of finding a treasure chest. To achieve this, you have a map with a description of all the paths and turns that you need to take to reach your goal. However, after the first 100 meters of the path you understand that this island has a huge number of amazing plants, ripe fruits, and curious animals. All this is very interesting and attractive for you: firstly, you want to take a photo of a beautiful flower, secondly, try a tropical fruit, thirdly, play with a funny monkey. “Why not? This is a great chance!” you think. After a while, having enjoyed the life of the island, you realize that it is already evening, and it is easier to spend the night somewhere under a palm tree and continue the search for treasure tomorrow, during daylight hours. “That’s a smart idea!” you note and begin to prepare a place to sleep. In the morning, you wake up in a good mood, you are greeted by familiar flowers, fruits and a cheerful parrot. Since you already know all this, you decide to continue following the map to find the treasure today and sail on. The path is easy for you: the entire route is marked in advance, you just follow these instructions. So, here you are. At the roots of the largest palm tree, under many branches, there should be a treasure chest hidden. You clear away the branches, and here your expectation collides with a shocking reality. Instead of a chest, you see a hole, where at the bottom, with a wooden stick, is written: “Warren was here”. In this example, Warren had the same map as you. Moreover, he arrived on the island much later. The only difference is his model of achieving the goal. He understood that exploring the island was not a priority for him right now. Warren would be happy to return there, but this time with the goal of relaxing, perhaps on his brand-new ship. And while he came to the island to look for treasure, he is looking for it. Everything else, despite all its attractiveness, is for him a risk of not achieving the goal. I also think of my stock investing strategy as a map that helps me understand where I should turn in any given situation. The only thing that makes me follow the route is discipline. Unfortunately, I can't put the stock market on pause or ignore corporate news - they all require my attention. If I choose this path, I follow it. In other words, if I am not going to follow the recommendations of my map, then why did I choose this path? However, how difficult it is to look calmly at temptations. A man is not a robot. So we need some tricks that can help us with discipline. I think that in this regard, the most brilliant invention of mankind was and remains the alarm clock. No matter how much we sleep, when the alarm rings, we wake up. The most disciplined people even set several alarms to make sure they wake up! On the one hand, it irritates us like crazy, on the other hand, have you ever thought about how well it helps us relax? After all, there is no longer a need to wake up and determine the time by the brightness of the sun from the window - now we have an alarm clock! It turns out that discipline can be associated with pleasant things. By the way, on TradingView, such a brilliant invention is “Alerts”. I wrote about this function in the article: “A pill for missed opportunities” . I will only add that the alert system can be applied not only to the stock price, but also to the indicators that you use on the chart, as well as to a whole watch list. So, make a list of companies you want to keep an eye on. Then set alerts when a certain condition related to price or indicator value is reached. And finally, wait calmly. Yes, this is what will take up all your time - waiting. And believe me, it takes a lot of discipline to just wait. To develop this trait, I recommend creating habits that are organically linked to your strategy. For example, to decide about a deal, I constantly refer to news about the selected companies. It is significant for me to understand whether critical events have arisen that could influence my decision to open or close a position. However, regularly reading corporate news can hardly be called a fascinating activity for everyone. This is not looking at memes at all. Therefore, below I will give a few tricks that will help make this (and not only this) activity systemic: 1. Set your alarm for 1 hour before the stock market opens. Let this signal remind you that it is time to study the news on companies that have already been bought or are very close to being bought. 2. Make access to news as convenient as possible. Install the TradingView app on your phone, tablet, home computer or laptop. Don't have problems accessing information in any situation: if you are lying on the couch, sitting at the table or walking in the park. 3. Start with small steps. For example, start by reading only the headlines of news stories, rather than the entire story at once. Gradually increase the amount of incoming information. In one full hour, you can easily gather all the information you need to get a complete picture before the market opens. 4. Use modern technologies. For example, reading news from your voice assistant. This is convenient if you are on the move. 5. Combine your habit with another direction you are developing. For example, if you are learning a foreign language, practice reading the news in that language. 6. Organize public attention to your habit. For example, agree with your wife that for every time you skip a habit, you take her to a new restaurant (I think the most effective method for married men). Chat with like-minded people and/or post your thoughts on the news on social networks. The extra attention will motivate you to keep doing it. 7. Add a little joy to your news reading habit. If you like freshly squeezed juice, place a glass of it next to you. After the work you've done, be sure to thank yourself. For example, a delicious dessert or watching one episode of your favorite TV series. 8. Formulate your goal as follows: not to be someone who understands everything, but to be someone who never misses a single event. 9. Separately, I would like to draw attention to keeping a diary of your operations. This is an essential document that will help you track your progress - your Track Record. At the same time, it is one of the systemic habits. I recommend adding to Track Record information about cash transactions, trades, taxes, dividends, conditions that prompted you to open or close a position in shares. You can organize such a diary in any spreadsheet to calculate some of the metrics using formulas. Below, I will present the metrics that I use in my Track Record. All data in it will be provided as an example only. 10. And finally, I think it is significant to visualize your achievements not only in electronic form, but also to have a physical embodiment of your results. For example, these can be empty glass flasks where you can put coins or balls corresponding to certain actions: opening a position, closing a position with a profit, closing a position with a loss, paying dividends. One flask - one year. Such an installation will look beautiful in your room or office and will remind you of what you have finally achieved. You might even have some interesting stories to tell to curious guests who notice this piece of furniture.
NASDAQ:NVDAEducation
by Be_Capy
Union Budget 2025: Key Highlights & Market ImpactUnion Budget 2025: Key Highlights and Market Implications Hello everyone, I hope you're all doing well in your personal and trading endeavors. Today, I bring you a concise summary of the Union Budget 2025, presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on February 1, 2025. This budget focuses on boosting economic growth, providing tax relief, and strengthening various sectors of the economy. Key Highlights of Union Budget 2025 Income Tax Relief: The government has increased the income tax exemption limit to ₹12 lakh under the new tax regime, providing significant relief to salaried individuals. This is expected to boost savings and consumption. Infrastructure Development: Increased capital expenditure has been allocated to roadways, railways, and smart cities, aiming to accelerate economic growth and employment. Agriculture and Rural Economy: Enhanced financial support and subsidies for farmers, along with new schemes to promote high-yield crops and modern agricultural techniques. Stock Market and Investment: The budget introduces measures to encourage long-term investments, with tax benefits for equity investors and policies to strengthen capital markets. Energy Sector and Sustainability: A Nuclear Energy Mission has been launched, along with incentives for renewable energy projects, focusing on sustainable development. Support for Startups and MSMEs: Tax benefits and funding support have been extended for startups and small businesses to drive innovation and entrepreneurship. AI and Digital India Initiative: Increased investments in artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure, and cybersecurity to strengthen India's tech ecosystem. Healthcare and Education: Enhanced budget allocation for the healthcare sector, medical research, and AI-driven education initiatives. Impact on Traders and Investors ✔ Positive Sentiment for Equity Markets: Increased disposable income and tax relief could lead to higher consumer spending, benefiting FMCG, auto, and retail sectors. ✔ Growth in Infrastructure and Energy Sectors: Higher government spending on infrastructure and renewable energy will likely boost related stocks. ✔ Technology and Startups to Benefit: Increased government support for startups and AI-based industries could lead to significant growth in these sectors. This budget provides multiple opportunities for traders and investors to align their strategies with emerging trends. Stay updated, analyze the market, and make informed decisions.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by TraderRahulPal
7
Ray Dalio’s Investing Secrets: Risk & Diversification!Hello everyone, I hope you all are doing great in life and in your trading journey. Today, I have brought another educational post, this time on Ray Dalio—one of the most successful investors and the founder of Bridgewater Associates. His journey from losing everything to building the world’s largest hedge fund is truly inspiring. Dalio’s principles on risk management, diversification, and systematic investing have helped countless traders navigate the markets successfully. Let’s dive into his key lessons and see how we can apply them to our own trading and investing journey! 🚀 Ray Dalio’s Key Trading & Investing Principles Embrace Radical Truth & Mistakes: Mistakes are the best teachers. Analyze failures, learn from them, and improve your strategy. Diversification is Key: Dalio’s famous "All Weather Portfolio" is designed to survive in any market condition. Never put all your money in one asset. Don’t Rely on Predictions Alone: Markets are uncertain. Focus on probabilities, risk management, and adjusting strategies instead of blindly predicting. Balance Risk & Reward: Smart investing is about managing downside risks while maximizing returns. Never take excessive risks on a single trade. Be Open-Minded & Adaptable: The best traders are always learning, evolving, and adjusting their strategies based on new data. Follow a Systematic Approach: Investing should be rule-based and emotion-free. Stick to a clear framework to avoid impulsive decisions. What This Means for Traders: By following Dalio’s principles, traders can manage risks better, survive market crashes, and create a long-term winning strategy. Outcome: Applying these lessons will help you develop a disciplined, well-diversified, and sustainable approach to trading and investing.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by TraderRahulPal
Learn Peter Lynch’s Proven Investment Strategies! Hello everyone, i hope you all will be doing good in your life and your trading as well. Today again i have brought an educational post on Peter Lynch's Golden Rules for Smart Investing, So let's Start and apply this in your Trading and Investing to achieve Success. Invest in What You Know: Stick to businesses whose products and services you understand. Pay attention to companies you regularly interact with. Do Your Homework: After identifying a good company, analyze its financials thoroughly. Look at sales growth, earnings, and the balance sheet. Avoid the Hype: Don’t follow the crowd or invest in hot stocks based on market trends. Stick to your analysis and logic. Look for Growth: Invest in companies with strong long-term growth potential, especially in expanding industries. Know What You Own: Always understand why you are investing in a particular stock. Learn about its business model, competitive advantages, and risks. Be Patient: Successful investing takes time. Don’t expect instant results; focus on the long-term potential of your investments. The Stock Market is Not a Lottery: Investing requires research and knowledge, not random guesses. Ignore Short-Term Fluctuations: Avoid reacting to daily price movements; focus on a company's fundamentals. What This Means for Investors: Following these principles will help you build a strong investment strategy based on knowledge, patience, and discipline. Outcome: By applying Peter Lynch’s principles, you can develop a systematic and confident approach to investing.
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by TraderRahulPal
learn Database trading and other thingsSome traders follow something called the "10 a.m. rule." The stock market opens for trading at 9:30 a.m., and there's often a lot of trading between 9:30 a.m. and 10 a.m. Traders that follow the 10 a.m. rule think a stock's price trajectory is relatively set for the day by the end of that half-hour. Oracle Database is renowned for its high performance and solid market reputation for many years. This database offers advanced features such as AutoML, autonomous management, and support for multiple models, making it a preferred choice for many enterprises.2
BSE:SENSEXEducation
by SkyTradingZone
3
Berger Paints Bounces Back – Targets Within ReachHello everyone, i hope you all will be doing good in your life and your trading as well, Today i have brought very strong fundamentaly strong stock which is reversing from important support zone, Stock name is Berger paints and it is known for its wide range of decorative and industrial paints. Over the years, it has built a strong reputation for innovation, quality, and a robust distribution network. With increasing demand for premium and eco-friendly products, Berger is well-positioned for long-term growth. Let's discuss Technical and Fundamentals about this Gem stock: Technical Overview:- Berger Paints is sitting at a strong support zone around ₹425-450, a level that has consistently held during market corrections. It’s showing signs of recovery with the formation of a Morning Star pattern on the weekly chart—a bullish reversal signal. The immediate resistance lies around ₹500-550, with a medium-term target of ₹630+, where multiple resistances have been tested in the past. Fundamental Insights:- Solid Growth Story: Berger has consistently grown its revenues, thanks to strong demand in decorative paints and its expanding presence in rural and urban markets. Resilient Margins: Even with rising input costs, Berger has maintained steady profit margins, reflecting its operational strength and pricing power. Future Prospects: With urbanization on the rise and increasing preferences for high-quality paints, Berger is set to benefit from long-term industry trends. Market Cap ₹ 53,465 Cr. Current Price ₹ 459 High / Low ₹ 630 / 438 Stock P/E 46.6 Book Value ₹ 48.0 Dividend Yield 0.78 % ROCE 27.5 % ROE 23.5 % Face Value ₹ 1.00 Industry PE 46.6 Debt ₹ 797 Cr. EPS ₹ 9.82 Promoter holding 75.0 % Intrinsic Value ₹ 129 Return over 5years 1.09 % Debt to equity 0.14 Net profit ₹ 1,147 Cr. Disclaimer:- Please always do your own analysis or consult with your financial advisor before taking any kind of trades. Dear traders, If you like my work then do not forget to hit like and follow me, and guy's let me know what do you think about this idea in comment box, i would be love to reply all of you guy's. Thankyou.
NSE:BERGEPAINTLong
by TraderRahulPal
HOW-TO use the Rainbow Indicator? (full guide)Below is a complete instruction on how to use the Rainbow Indicator along with examples. This indicator is an important facet of my decision-making system because it allows me to answer two important questions: - At what price should I make a trade with the selected shares? - In what volume? Part 1: Darts Set My concept of investing in stocks is buying great companies during a sell-off . Of course, this idea is not unique. One way or another, this was said by the luminaries of value investing – Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett. However, the implementation of this concept may vary depending on the preferences of each investor.To find great companies, I use the Fundamental strength indicator , and to plan opening and closing positions I use the Rainbow indicator. To begin your acquaintance with the Rainbow Indicator, ⁣ I would like to invite you to take part in a mental experiment. Imagine two small rooms for a game of darts. Each room has a different target hanging in it. It can be anywhere: center, left, right, bottom, or top. Target #1 from the first room looks like a small red circle. Target #2 from the second room looks like a larger red circle. You get a reward for hitting the target, calculated according to the following principle: the smaller the target in relation to the wall surface, the greater the reward you get. You have 100 darts in your hand, that is 100 attempts to hit the target. For each attempt, you pay $10. So to play this unusual game of darts, you take with you $1,000. Now, the most important condition is that you play in absolute darkness . So you don't know exactly what part of the wall the target is hanging in, so all your years of darts practice don't matter here. The question is: Which room will you choose? This is where you begin to think. Since your skills and experience are almost completely untapped in this game, all of your attempts to hit a target will be random. This is a useful observation because it allows you to apply the theory of probability. The password is Jacob Bernoulli. This is the mathematician who derived the formula by which you can calculate the probability of a successful outcome for a limited number of attempts. In our case, a successful outcome is a dart hitting the target as many times as necessary in order to, at least, not lose anything. In the case of Target #1, it is one hit or more. In the case of Target 2, it is 10 hits or more. The probability of hitting Target #1 is 1/100 or 1% (since the target area occupies 1% of the wall area). The probability of hitting Target #2 is 10/100 or 10% (since the target area occupies 10% of the wall area). The number of attempts is equal to the number of darts - 100. Now we have all the data to calculate. So, Bernoulli's formula : According to this formula: - The probability of one or more hits on Target #1 is 63% (out of 100%). - The probability of ten or more hits on Target #2 is 55% (out of 100%). You may say, "I think we should go to the first room". However, take your time with this conclusion because it is interesting to calculate the probability of not hitting the target even once, i.e., losing $1,000. We calculate using the same formula: - The probability of not hitting Target #1 is 37% (out of 100%). - The probability of not hitting Target #2 is 0.0027% (out of 100%). If we calculate the ratio of the probability of a successful outcome to the probability of losing the whole amount, we get: - For the first room = 1.7 - For the second room = 20370 You know, I like the second room better. This mental experiment reflects my approach to investing in stocks. The first room is an example of a strategy where you try to find the perfect entry point - to buy at a price below which the stock will not fall. The second room reflects an approach where you're not chasing a specific price level, but thinking in price ranges. In both cases, you'll have plenty of attempts, but in the first room, the risk of losing everything is much greater than in the second room. Now let me show you my target, ⁣ which is a visual interpretation of the Rainbow Indicator. It also hangs on the wall, in absolute darkness, and only becomes visible after I have used all the darts. Before the game starts, I announce the color where I want to go. The probability of hitting decreases from blue to green, and then to orange and red. That is, the smaller the color area, the less likely it is to successfully hit the selected color. However, the size of the reward also increases according to the same principle - the smaller the area of ​​color, the greater the reward. Throwing a dart is an attempt to close a position with a profit. Hitting the selected color is a position closed with a profit. Missing the selected color means the position is closed at a loss. Now imagine that in the absolutely dark room where I am, I have a flashlight. Thanks to it, I have the opportunity to see in which part of the wall the target is located. This gives me a significant advantage because now I throw darts not blindly, but with a precise understanding of where I am aiming. Light shining on the wall increases the probability of a successful outcome, which can also be estimated using the Bernoulli formula. Let's say I have 100 darts in my hands, that is, one hundred attempts to hit the chosen target. The probability of a dart hitting a red target (without the help of a flashlight) is 10%, and with the help of a flashlight, for example, 15%. That is, my ability to throw darts improves the probability of hitting the target by 5%. For hitting the red target, I get $100, and for each throw I pay $10. In this case, the probability of hitting the red target ten or more times is 94.49% (out of 100%) versus 55% (out of 100%) without a flashlight. In other words, under these game conditions and the assumptions made, if I try all 100 darts, the probability of recouping all my expenses will be 94.49% if I aim only at the red target. In my decision-making system, such a "flashlight" is the Fundamental strength indicator, dynamics of cash flows, the P/E ratio and the absence of critical news. And the darts set (target and darts) is a metaphor for the Rainbow Indicator. However, please note that all probabilities of positive outcomes are assumptions and are provided only for the purpose of example and understanding of the approach I have chosen. Stocks of public companies are not a guaranteed income instrument, nor are any indicators associated with them. Part 2: Margin of safety The idea to create the Rainbow Indicator came to me thanks to the concept of "margin of safety" coined by the father of value investing, Benjamin Graham. According to his idea, it is reasonable to buy shares of a company only when the price offered by the market is lower than the "intrinsic value" calculated based on financial statements. The value of this difference is the "margin of safety". At the same time, the indicator does not copy Graham's idea but develops it relying on my own methodology. So, according to Graham, the "margin of safety" is a good discount to the intrinsic value of the company. That is, if a company's stock is trading at prices that are well below the company's intrinsic value (on a per-share basis), it's a good opportunity to consider buying it. In this case, you will have a certain margin of safety in case the company is in financial distress and its stock price goes down. Accordingly, the greater the discount, the better. When it comes to the intrinsic value of a company, there are many approaches to determining it - from calculating the Price-to-book value financial ratio to the discounted cash flow method. As for my approach, I don’t try to find the coveted intrinsic value/cost, but I try to understand how fundamentally strong the company in front of me is, and how many years it will take to pay off my investment in it. To decide to buy shares, I use the following sequence of actions: - Determining fundamental strength of a company and analysis of cash flows using the Fundamental Strength Indicator. - Analysis of the recoupment period of investments using P/E ratio . - Analysis of critical news . - Analysis of the current price using Rainbow Indicator. To decide to sell shares, I use: - Analysis of the current price using Rainbow Indicator. - Or The Rule of Replacement of Stocks in a Portfolio . - Or Force majeure Position Closing Rule . Thus, the Rainbow indicator is always used in tandem with other indicators and analysis methods when buying stocks. However, in the case of selling previously purchased shares, I can only use the Rainbow indicator or one of the rules that I will discuss below. Next, we will consider the methodology for calculating the Rainbow Indicator. Indicator calculation methodology The Rainbow indicator starts with a simple moving average of one year (this is the thick red line in the center). Hereinafter, a year will mean the last 252 trading days. Applying a moving average of this length - is a good way to smooth out sharp price fluctuations which can happen during a year as much as possible, keeping the trend direction as much as possible. Thus, the moving average becomes for me the center of fluctuations of the imaginary pendulum of the market price. Then the deviations are calculated from the center of fluctuations. To achieve this, a certain number of earnings per share is subtracted from and added to the moving average. This is the diluted EPS of the last year. Deviations with a "-" sign from the Lower Rainbow of four colors: - The Blue Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow begins with a deflection of -4 EPS and ends with a deflection of -8 EPS. - The Green Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow begins with a deflection of -8 EPS and ends with a deflection of -16 EPS. - The Orange Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow begins with a deflection of -16 EPS and ends with a deflection of -32 EPS. - The Red Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow begins with a deflection of -32 EPS and goes to infinity. The Lower Rainbow is used to determine the price ranges that can be considered for buying stocks. It is in the spectra of the Lower Rainbow that the very "margin of safety" according to my methodology is located. The Lower Rainbow has the boundaries between the spectra as a solid line . And only the Red Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow has only one boundary. Deviations with a "+" sign from the Upper Rainbow of four similar colors: - The Red Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow begins with a deflection of 0 EPS and ends with a deflection of +4 EPS. - The Orange Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow begins with a deflection of +4 EPS and ends with a deflection of +8 EPS. - The Green Spectrum top rainbow begins with a deflection of +8 EPS and ends with a deflection of +16 EPS. - The Blue Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow begins with a deflection of +16 EPS and goes to infinity. The Upper Rainbow is used to determine the price ranges that can be considered for selling stocks already purchased. The top rainbow has boundaries between the spectra in the form of crosses . And only the Blue Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow has only one boundary. The presence of the Empty Area (the size of 4 EPS) above the Lower Rainbow creates some asymmetry between the two rainbows - the Lower Rainbow looks wider than the Upper Rainbow. This asymmetry is deliberate because the market tends to fall much faster and deeper than it grows . Therefore, a wider Lower Rainbow is conducive to buying stocks at a good discount during a period of massive "sell-offs". The situation when the Lower Rainbow is below the center of fluctuations (the thick red line) and the Upper Rainbow is above the center of fluctuations is called an Obverse . It is only possible to buy a stock in an Obverse situation. The situation when the Lower Rainbow is above the center of fluctuations and the Upper Rainbow is below the center of fluctuations is called Reverse . In this situation, the stock cannot be considered for purchase , according to my approach. Selling a previously purchased stock is possible in both situations: Reverse and Obverse. After loading the indicator, you can see a hint next to the closing price - Reverse or Obverse now. Because the size of the deviation from the center of fluctuation depends on the size of the diluted EPS, several important conclusions can be made: - The increase in the width of both rainbows in the Obverse situation tells me about the growth of profits in the companies. - The decrease in the width of both rainbows in the Obverse situation tells me about a decrease in profits in the companies. - The increase in the width of both rainbows in the Reverse situation tells me about the growth of losses in the companies. - The decrease in the width of both rainbows in the Reverse situation tells me about the decrease in losses in the companies. - The higher the company's level of profit, the larger my "margin of safety" should be. This will provide the necessary margin of safety in the event of a transition to a cycle of declining financial results. The corresponding width of the Lower Rainbow will just create this "reserve". - The growth in profit in the company (after buying its shares) will allow me to stay in the position longer due to the expansion of the Upper Rainbow. - A decrease in profit in the company (after buying its shares) will allow me to close the position faster due to the narrowing of the Upper Rainbow. So the Rainbow indicator shows me a price range that can be considered for purchase if all the necessary conditions are met. By being in this price range, my investment will have a certain margin of safety or "margin of safety." It will also tell me when to exit a stock position based on the company's earnings analysis. Part 3: Crazy Mr. Market The Fundamental strength of a company influences the long-term price performance of its shares. This is a thesis that I believe in and use in my work. A company that does not live in debt and quickly converts its goods or services into money will be appreciated by the market. This all sounds good, you say, but what should an investor do who needs to decide here and now? Moreover, one has to act in conditions of constant changes in market sentiment. Current talk about the company's excellent prospects can be replaced by a pessimistic view of it literally the next day. Therefore, the stock price chart of any companies, regardless of its fundamental strength, can resemble the chaotic drawings of preschool children. Working with such uncertainty required me to develop my own attitude towards it. Benjamin Graham's idea of market madness was of invaluable help to me in this. Imagine that the market is your business partner, "Mr. Market". Every day, he comes to your office to check in and offer you a deal with shares of your mutual companies. Sometimes he wants to buy your share, sometimes he intends to sell his. And each time he offers a price at random, relying only on his intuition. When he is in a panic and afraid of everything, he wants to get rid of his shares. When he feels euphoria and blind faith in the future, he wants to buy your share. This is how crazy your partner is. Why is he acting like this? According to Graham, this is how all investors behave who do not understand the real value/cost of what they own. They jump from side to side and do it with the regularity of a "maniac" every day. The smart investor's job is to understand the fundamental value of your business and just wait for the next visit from crazy Mr. Market. If he panics and offers to buy his stocks at a surprisingly low price, take them and wish him luck. If he begs you to sell him stocks and quotes an unusually high price, sell them and wish him luck. The Rainbow indicator is used to evaluate these two poles. Now let's look at the conditions of opening and closing a position according to the indicator. So, the Lower Rainbow has four differently colored spectra: blue, green, orange, and red. Each one highlights the desired range of prices acceptable for buying in an Obverse situation. The Blue Spectrum is upper regarding the Green Spectrum, and the Green Spectrum is lower regarding the Blue Spectrum, etc. - If the current price is in the Blue Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow, that is a reason to consider that company for buying the first portion (*) of the stock. - If the current price has fallen below (into the Green Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow), that is a reason to consider this company to buy a second portion of the stock. - If the current price has fallen below (into the Orange Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow), it is a reason to consider this company to buy a third portion of the stock. - If the current price has fallen below (into the Red Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow), that is a reason to consider that company to buy a fourth portion of the stock. (*) The logic of the Rainbow Indicator implies that no more than 4 portions of one company's stock can be purchased. One portion refers to the number of shares you can consider buying at the current price (depending on your account size and personal diversification ratio - see information below). The Upper Rainbow also has four differently colored spectra: blue, green, orange, and red. Each of them highlights the appropriate range of prices acceptable for closing an open position. - If the current price is in the Red Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow, I close one portion of an open position bought in the Red Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow. - If the current price is in the Orange Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow, I close one portion of an open position bought in the Orange Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow. - If the current price is in the Green Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow, I close one portion of an open position bought in the Green Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow. - If the current price is in the Blue Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow, I close one portion of an open position bought in the Blue Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow. This position-closing logic applies to both the Obverse and Reverse situations. In both cases, the position is closed in portions in four steps. However, there are 3 exceptions to this rule when it is possible to close an entire position in whole rather than in parts: 1. If there is a Reverse situation and the current price is above the thick red line. 2.if I decide to invest in another company and I do not have enough free finances to purchase the required number of shares (Portfolio Replacement Rule). 3. If I learn of events that pose a real threat to the continued existence of the companies (for example, filing for bankruptcy), I can close the position earlier, without waiting for the price to fall into the corresponding Upper Rainbow spectrum (Force majeure Position Closing Rule). So, the basic scenario of opening and closing a position assumes the gradual purchase of shares in 4 stages and their gradual sale in 4 stages. However, there is a situation where one of the stages is skipped in the case of buying shares and in the case of selling them. For example, because the Fundamental Strength Indicator and the P/E ratio became acceptable for me only at a certain stage (spectrum) or the moment was missed for a transaction due to technical reasons. In such cases, I buy or sell more than one portion of a stock in the spectrum I am in. The number of additional portions will depend on the number of missed spectra. For example, if I have no position in the stock of the company in question, all conditions for buying the stock have been met, and the current price is in the Orange Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow, I can buy three portions of the stock at once (for the Blue, Green, and Orange Spectrum). I will sell these three portions in the corresponding Upper Rainbow spectra (orange, green, and blue). However, if, for some reason, the Orange Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow was missed, and the current price is in the Green Spectrum - I will sell two portions of the three (in the Green Spectrum). I will sell the last, third portion only when the price reaches the Blue Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow. The table also contains additional information in the form of the current value of the company's market capitalization and P/E ratio. This allows me to use these two indicators within one indicator. Returning to the madness of the market, I would like to mention that this is a reality that cannot be fought, but can be used to achieve results. To get a sense of this, I will give an example of one of the stereotypes of an investor who uses fundamental analysis in his work.His thinking might be: If I valued a company on its financial performance and bought it, then I should stay in the position long enough to justify my expenses of analysis. In this way, the investor deliberately deprives himself of flexibility in decision-making. He will be completely at a loss if the financial performance starts to deteriorate rapidly and the stock price starts to decline rapidly. It is surprising that the same condition will occur in the case of a rapid upward price movement. The investor will torment himself with the question "what to do?" because I just bought stocks of this company, expecting to hold them for the long term. It is at moments like these that I'm aware of the value of the Rainbow Indicator. If it is not a force majeure or a Reverse situation, I just wait until the price reaches the Upper Rainbow. Thus, I can close the position in a year, in a month or in a few weeks. I don't have a goal to hold an open position for a long time, but I do have a goal to constantly adhere to the chosen investment strategy. Part 4: Diversification Ratio If the price is in the Lower Rainbow range and all other criteria are met, it is a good time to ask yourself, "How many shares to buy?" To answer this question, I need to understand how many companies I plan to invest in. Here I adhere to the principle of diversification - that is, distributing investments between the shares of several companies. What is this for? To reduce the impact of any company on the portfolio as a whole. Remember the old saying: don't put all your eggs in one basket. Like baskets, stocks can fall and companies can file for bankruptcy and leave the exchange. In this regard, diversification is a way to avoid losing capital due to investing in only one company. How do I determine the minimum number of companies for a portfolio? This amount depends on my attitude towards the capital that I will use to invest in stocks. If I accept the risk of losing 100% of my capital, then I can only invest in one company. It can be said that in this case there is no diversification. If I accept the risk of losing 50% of my capital, then I should invest in at least two companies, and so on. I just divide 100% by the percentage of capital that I can safely lose. The resulting number, rounded to the nearest whole number, is the minimum number of companies for my portfolio. As for the maximum value, it is also easy to determine. To achieve this, you need to multiply the minimum number of companies by four (this is how many spectra the Lower or Upper Rainbow of the indicator contains). How many companies I end up with in my portfolio will depend on from this set of factors. However, this amount will always fluctuate between the minimum and maximum, calculated according to the principle described above. I call the maximum possible number of companies in a portfolio the diversification coefficient. It is this coefficient that is involved in calculating the number of shares needed to be purchased in a particular spectrum of the Lower Rainbow. How does this work? Let's go to the indicator settings and fill in the necessary fields for the calculation. + Cash in - Cash out +/- Closed Profit/Loss + Dividends - Fees - Taxes +Cash in - the number of finances deposited into my account -Cash out - the number of finances withdrawn from my account +/-Closed Profit/Loss - profit or loss on closed positions +Dividends - dividends received on the account -Fees - broker and exchange commission -Taxes - taxes debited from the account Diversification coefficient The diversification coefficient determines how diversified I want my portfolio to be. For example, a diversification coefficient of 20 means that I plan to buy 20 share portions of different companies, but no more than 4 portions per company (based on the number of Lower Rainbow spectra). The cost of purchased shares of this company (fees excluded) Here, I specify the amount of already purchased shares of the company in question in the currency of my portfolio. For example, if at this point, I have purchased 1000 shares at $300 per share, and my portfolio is expressed in $, I enter - $300,000. The cost of all purchased shares in the portfolio (fees excluded) Here, I enter the amount of all purchased shares for all companies in the currency of my portfolio (without commissions spent on the purchase). This is necessary to determine the amount of available funds available to purchase shares. After entering all the necessary data, I move on to the checkbox, by checking which I confirm that the company in question has successfully passed all preliminary stages of analysis (Fundamental strength indicator, P/E ratio, critical news). Without the check, the calculation is not performed. This is done intentionally because the use of the Rainbow Indicator for the purpose of purchasing shares is possible only after passing all the preliminary stages. Next, I click "Ok" and get the calculation in the form of a table on the left. Market Capitalization The value of a company's market capitalization, expressed in the currency of its stock price. Price / EPS Diluted Current value of the P/E ratio. Free cash in portfolio This is the amount of free cash available to purchase stocks. Please note that the price of the stock and the funds in your portfolio must be denominated in the same currency. On TradingView, you can choose which currency to display the stock price in. Cash amount for one portion The amount of cash needed to buy one portion of a stock. This depends on the diversification ratio entered. If you divide this value + Cash in - Cash out +/- Closed Profit/Loss + Dividends - Fees - Taxes by the diversification coefficient, you get Cash amount for one portion . Potential portions amount Number of portions, available for purchase at the current price. It can be a fractional number. Cash amount to buy The amount of cash needed to buy portions available for purchase at the current price. Shares amount to buy Number of shares in portions available for purchase at the current price. Thus, the diversification ratio is a significant parameter of my stocks' investment strategy. It shows both the limit on the number of companies and the limit on the number of portions for the portfolio. It also participates in calculating the number of finances and shares to purchase at the current price level. Changing the diversification coefficient is possible already during the process of investing in stocks. If my capital ( + Cash in - Cash out +/- Closed Profit/Loss + Dividends - Fees - Taxes ) has changed significantly (by more than Cash amount for one portion ), I always ask myself the same question: "What risk (as a percentage of capital) is acceptable for me now?" If the answer involves a change in the minimum number of companies in the portfolio, then the diversification ratio will also be recalculated. Therefore, the number of finances needed to purchase one portion will also change. We can say that the diversification ratio controls the distribution of finances among my investments. Part 5: Prioritization and Exceptions to the Rainbow Indicator Rules When analyzing a company and its stock price using the Fundamental Strength Indicator and the Rainbow Indicator, a situation may arise where all the conditions for buying are met in two or more companies. At the same time, ⁣ Free cash in the portfolio does not allow me to purchase the required number of portions from different companies. In that case, I need to decide which companies I will give priority to. To decide, I follow the following rules: 1. Priority is given to companies from the top-tier sector group (how these groups are defined is explained in this article ). That is, the first group prevails over the second, and the second over the third. These companies must also meet the purchase criteria described in Part 2. 2. If after applying the first rule, two or more companies have received priority, I look at the value of the Fundamental Strength Indicator. Priority is given to companies that have a fundamental strength of 8 points or higher. They must also be within two points of the leader in terms of fundamental strength. For example, if a leader has a fundamental strength of 12 points, then the range under consideration will be from 12 to 10 points. 3. If, after applying the second rule, two or more companies received priority, I look at which spectrum of the Lower Rainbow the current price of these companies is in. If a company's stock price is on the lower end of the spectrum, I give it priority. 4. If, after applying the third rule, two or more companies have received priority, I look at the P/E ratio. The Company with the lower P/E ratio gets priority. After applying these four rules, I get the company with the highest priority. This is the company that wins the fight for my investment. To figure out the next priority to buy, I repeat this process over and over again to use up all the money I have allocated for investing in stocks. The second part of the guide mentioned two rules that I use when deciding whether to close positions: - The Rule for replacing shares in a portfolio. - Force majeure position closure Rule. They take priority over the Rainbow Indicator. This means that the position may be closed even if the Rainbow indicator does not signal this. Let's consider each rule separately. Portfolio stock replacement Rule Since company stocks are not an asset with a guaranteed return, I can get into a situation where the position is open for a long time without an acceptable financial result. That is, the price of the company's shares is not growing, and the Rainbow indicator does not signal the need to sell shares. In this case, I can replace the problematic companies with a new one. The criteria for a problem company are: - 3 months have passed since the position was opened. - Fundamental strength below 5 points. - The width of both rainbows decreased during the period of holding the position. To identify a new company that will take the place of the problematic one, I use the prioritization principle from this section. At the same time, I always consider this possibility as an option. The thing is that frequently replacing stocks in my portfolio is not a priority for me and is seen as a negative action. A new company would have to have really outstanding parameters for me to take advantage of this option. Force majeure position closure Rule If my portfolio contains stocks of a company that has critical news, then I can close the position without using the Rainbow Indicator. How to determine whether this news is critical or not is described in this article . Part 6: Examples of using the indicator Let’s consider the situation with NVIDIA Corporation stock (ticker - NVDA). September 02, 2022: Fundamental Strength Indicator - 11.46 (fundamentally strong company). P/E - 39.58 (acceptable to me). Current price - $136.47 (is in the Orange Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow). Situation - Obverse. There is no critical news for the company. The basic conditions for buying this company's stock are met. The Rainbow Indicator settings are filled out as follows: The table to the left of the Rainbow Indicator shows how many shares are possible to buy in the Orange Spectrum of Lower Rainbow at the current price = 10 shares. This corresponds to 2.73 portions. To give you an example, I buy 10 shares of NVDA at $136.47 per share. October 14, 2022: NVDA's stock price has moved into the Red Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow. The Fundamental Strength Indicator is 10.81 (fundamentally strong company). P/E is 35.80 (an acceptable level for me). Current price - $112.27 (is in the Red Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow). Situation - Obverse. There is no critical news for the company. The basic conditions for buying this company's stock are still met. The Rainbow Indicator settings are populated as follows: The table to the left of the Rainbow Indicator shows how many shares are possible to buy in the Lower Rainbow Red Spectrum at the current price (5 shares). This corresponds to 1.12 portions. To give you an example, I buy 5 shares of NVDA at $112.27 per share. A total of 3.85 portions were purchased, which is the maximum possible number of portions at the current price level. The remainder in the form of 0.15 portions can be purchased only at a price level below $75 per share. January 23, 2023: The price of NVDA stock passes through the Red Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow and stops in the Orange Spectrum. As an example, I sell 5 shares bought in the Red Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow, for example at $180 per share (+60%). And also a third of the shares bought in the Orange Spectrum, 3 shares out of 10, for example at $190 a share (+39%). That leaves me with 7 shares. January 27, 2023: NVDA's stock price has continued to rise and has moved into the Green Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow. This is a reason to close some of the remaining 7 shares. I divide the 7 shares by 2 and round up to a whole number - that's 4 shares. For my example, I sell 4 shares at $199 a share (+46%). Now I am left with 3 shares of stock. February 02, 2023: The price of NVDA stock moves into the Blue Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow, and I close the remaining 3 shares, for example, at $216 per share (+58%). The entire position in NVDA stock is closed. As you can see, the Fundamental Strength Indicator and the P/E ratio were not used in the process of closing the position. Decisions were made only based on the Rainbow Indicator. As another example, let's look at the situation with the shares of Papa Johns International, Inc. (ticker PZZA). November 01, 2017: Fundamental Strength Indicator - 13.22 points (fundamentally strong company). P/E - 21.64 (acceptable to me). Current price - $62.26 (is in the Blue Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow). Situation - Obverse. There is no critical news for the company. The basic conditions for buying shares of this company are met. The settings of the Rainbow Indicator are filled as follows: The table to the left of the Rainbow Indicator shows how many shares are possible to buy in the Lower Rainbow Blue Spectrum at the current price - 8 shares. This corresponds to 1 portion. To give you an example, I buy 8 shares of PZZA at a price of $62.26. August 8, 2018: PZZA's share price has moved into the Green Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow. The Fundamental Strength Indicator is a 9.83 (fundamentally strong company). P/E is 16.07 (an acceptable level for me). Current price - $38.94 (is in the Green Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow). Situation - Obverse. There is no critical news for the company. The basic conditions for buying shares of this company are still met. The Rainbow Indicator settings are populated as follows: The table to the left of the Rainbow Indicator shows how many shares are possible to buy in the Lower Rainbow Green Spectrum at the current price - 12 shares. This corresponds to 0.93 portions. To give you an example, I buy 12 shares of PZZA at a price of $38.94. A total of 1.93 portions were purchased. October 31, 2018: PZZA's stock price moves into the Upper Rainbow Red Spectrum and is $54.54 per share. Since I did not have any portions purchased in the Lower Rainbow Red Spectrum, there is no closing part of the position. February 01, 2019: After a significant decline, PZZA's stock price moves into the Orange Spectrum of the Lower Rainbow at $38.51 per share. However, I am not taking any action because the company's Fundamental Strength on this day is 5.02 (a fundamentally mediocre company). March 27, 2019: PZZA's stock price passes the green and Blue Spectrum of the Upper Rainbow. This allowed to close the previously purchased 12 shares, for example, at $50 a share (+28%) and 8 shares at $50.38 a share (-19%). Closing the entire position at once was facilitated by a significant narrowing in both rainbows. As we now know, this indicates a decline in earnings at the company. In conclusion of this instruction, I would like to remind you once again that any investment is associated with risk. Therefore, make sure that you understand all the nuances of the indicators before using them. Mandatory requirements for using the indicator: - Works only on a daily timeframe. - The indicator is only applicable to shares of public companies. - Quarterly income statements for the last year are required. - An acceptable for your P/E ratio is required to consider the company's stock for purchase. - The Rainbow Indicator only applies in tandem with the Fundamental Strength Indicator. To consider a company's stock for purchase, you need confirmation that the company is fundamentally strong. What is the value of the Rainbow Indicator? - Clearly demonstrates a company's profit and loss dynamics. - Shows the price ranges that can be used to open and close a position. - Considers the principle of gradual increase and decrease in a position. - Allows calculating the number of shares to be purchased. - Shows the current value of the P/E ratio. - Shows the current capitalization of the company. Risk disclaimer When working with the Rainbow Indicator, keep in mind that the release of the Income statement (from which diluted EPS is derived) occurs some time after the end of the fiscal quarter. This means that the new relevant data for the calculation will only appear after the publication of the new statement. In this regard, there may be a significant change in the Rainbow Indicator after the publication of the new statement. The magnitude of this change will depend on both the content of the new statement and the number of days between the end of the financial quarter and the publication date of the statement. Before the publication date of the new statement, the latest actual data will be used for the calculations. Also, once again, please note that the Rainbow Indicator can only be used in tandem with the Fundamental Strength Indicator and the P/E ratio. Without these additional filters, the Rainbow Indicator loses its intended meaning. The Rainbow Indicator allows you to determine the price ranges for opening and closing a position gradually, based on available data and the methodology I created. You can also use it to calculate the number of shares you can consider buying, considering the position you already have. However, this Indicator and/or its description and examples cannot be used as the sole reason for buying or selling stocks or for any other action or inaction related to stocks.
NASDAQ:NVDAEducation
by Be_Capy
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