Get started

Investors

28 Mar ’24 — Nifty up 5415pts 32% this FY Investors beat tradersNifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “We are still hanging on to the inverse head and shoulders pattern and strongly hope we should have some movement to the 22295 levels by tomorrow.” 4mts chart Unbelievable intraday price action by Nifty50 today. A rise of 369 points ~ 1.67% and then a sharp fall of 250 points ~ 1.11%. This highly volatile price movement is largely attributed to the year-end rebalancing by the mutual funds both DIIs and FIIs. What a fantastic financial year it has been for the investors. Nifty is up 32% ie 5415 points in the current financial year. If you look back and assess objectively, it is way above the average returns made by intraday traders. I can vouch for that as my personal returns are not more than 14 to 16% in this period. Just imagine that, a normal investor who either did the SIP or lumpsum beat an active intraday trader. The former would have gone for a regular job or business and got an additional income whereas the latter would have spent every day (blood, sweat, and tears) in front of the trading terminal and end up underperforming. These numbers are more than enough to drive away the traders - why take the pain if investing is giving above-average returns? One thing is 100% sure, things will not remain like this forever. Benchmarks cannot give 30%+ returns every year if you are counting on that - it is a recipe for disaster. Nifty almost took out the All-time highs today and ended up falling 10pts short. The inverse head and shoulders pattern played out and gave good results. My personal trades today were a total disaster. I was short 22400 CE, rolled up to 22450 CE, and then rolled over to the next weekly as the market was aggressively moving against me. Had to book back-to-back losses. After exiting the 22400 CE by stop loss, it went up another 2244% - totally crazy. And just check what happened in the last 45 minutes - we gave away 250 points. Meanwhile, I decided not to run the Algo’s today and stick with manual trades. If I had gone with the Algos, my entire March month earnings would have been washed out. In the end, made peace with whatever happened during the day. When we start trading on 1st April, we will start with a bullish stance. 1D chart
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
19 Jan ’24 — Holiday Change at 7 PM? SAT working & Monday OFFNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “Today’s price action has confirmed that the channel is broken, but not the support/resistance of 21491. If Nifty trades above 21491 in the morning session — the bears may really feel abandoned. Ideally, the next stop should be 21041 — that was where Nifty bounced off from the trendline on 21st Dec 2023.” The entire price action for today was totally odd. No, I am not saying this because I lost money trading today. Firstly, the decay was not there on option strikes. Secondly, The far OTM strikes of BankNifty closed at values higher than yesterday - that is a huge anomaly. Nifty OTM PUTS closed at values higher than yesterday that too when the underlying moved up 160pts ~ 0.75%. Everything made perfect sense when the news broke out that stock markets will be fully functional tomorrow 20th Jan and we will be closed on 22nd Jan Monday. Seems like we are making a fool of ourselves. Was this information passed on to the institutional desk in advance? Will the FIIs now work tomorrow and undo the positions they took for today? How will they hedge the trades as Depository Receipts will be closed on Saturday? The first thing any foreign investor would want is stability and things like these can hamper confidence. 4mts chart The open was right at the ascending channel lower trend line and our view of bearishness was still relevant as we did not breach that resistance. Interestingly, we were not falling either. FII data for today, a sell value of 3689 crore made no impact on Nifty today. Assuming a segment of people knew what was going to happen with the shift of holidays. Nifty managed to hold its ground today and because of that - we have to change the status to neutral from bearish. 63mts chart The last 3 candles almost gave away the clue that bearishness was ending. We would still like to see how Nifty will open tomorrow. Ideally, it should open above 21698 i.e. within the channel to cement the idea that Bears are thrown out of control. Also, there will be a portion of traders who would have not taken positions assuming Monday is a working day - speculating a small FOMO effect could misprice the options during the opening minutes.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
The IRCTC Incident - Who would pay for the MTM Shortfall?The IRCTC Incident - Who would pay for the MTM Shortfall? Yesterday I was one of those who could use the 30% free fall in the share prices of IRCTC and added a few shares that are now available at an affordable price per share thanks to the share split done by the company. The split was done with the good intention of enabling more participation from the retail traders/investors and that is what happened as I could buy those shares at 700. The media is now full of articles trying to explain why was there a fall and why the convenience fee is important, etc. However, no one is asking the question - who would fund the intraday Marked To Market losses that SEBI now mandates FNO traders to top up? A few months ago it was Tata Motors whose share prices tanked big time when they announced semi-conductor shortage-related constraints, and then recently it was the turn of TCS, whose share prices were hammered post results and now IRCTC just because of a circular!! I am wondering if the watchdog of the capital markets is indeed watching this? And if so, what it proposes to do to protect the interests of the genuine #traders and #Investors? Consider this -- The IRCTC Nov 21 Future contract close price on 28-10 was 911 Lot size = 1625 IRCTC Futures low for 29-10 = 651 Difference = 260 Max MTM Loss = 422,500 per lot EOD price = 846 Difference = 65 Max MTM Loss = 105,625 per lot Who is going to fund this shortfall? Should the traders/investors be penalized for such unexpected shortfalls? Who will answer these questions is my question to SEBI? I hope industry leaders like Nithin Kamath, Motilal Oswal, and the like would help retail traders/investors get some answers. I was lucky not have been a part of FNO trade in the scrip as so far I am not familiar with its intraday price action. However, I am keen to know if any of the readers of this post were caught on the wrong foot or on the right foot? Your views/experiences would help spread awareness and awaken the regulators to work for the benefit of the retail traders/investors. Thank you! Umesh 30-10-21
NSE:IRCTC
by AVENUESOFINVESTMENT
2
Next Bitcoin price crash will be ‘shallower’ Bitcoin’s (BTC) market tendency to crash by over 80% after logging strong bull runs might come to an end.That is according to a new report published by California-based hedge fund Pantera Capital. In detail, the report notes that the recent periods of BTC price drops have been less severe than in the past For instance, in 2013–2015 and 2017–2018, Bitcoin crashed by as much as 83% after topping out near $1,111 and $20,089, respectively. Similarly, the cryptocurrency’s bull run in 2019–2020 and 2020–2021 led to massive price corrections. Nevertheless, the scales of their retracements afterward were -61% and -54%, respectively.The statements appeared as Bitcoin renewed its bullish strength to retest its current record high near $65,000.BTC/USD rallied above $60,000 for the first time since early May as the United States Securities and Exchange Commission approved the first Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) after years of rejecting similar investment products.The approval of ProShare’s Bitcoin Strategy ETF raised expectations that it would make it easier for institutional investors to gain exposure in the BTC market. That also helped Bitcoin wipe almost all the losses incurred during the April–July bear cycle as BTC’s price doubled to reclaim levels above $60,000.
EASYMARKETS:BTCUSDLong
by Telegram-Nina1jones