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EURUSD stays pressured toward 1.0600 amid risk-aversionEURUSD extends the previous day’s pullback from a four-month-old support-turned-resistance as sour sentiment underpins the US Dollar demand early Friday. In doing so, the Euro pair takes clues from the bearish MACD signals while paying little attention to the RSI (14) line suggesting a weak support for the current momentum. With this, the quote appears well set to revisit the latest trough surrounding the 1.0600. However, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s October-December upside, near 1.0595, will join the downbeat RSI conditions to challenge the bears afterward. Should the sellers keep the reins past 1.0595, 1.0520 and 1.0495 may act as intermediate halts before directing the prices toward the previous yearly bottom surrounding 1.0450. Meanwhile, the aforementioned previous support line from December 2023, close to 1.0675, guards the immediate recovery of the EURUSD pair ahead of the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) level near 1.0690. In a case where the Euro pair rises past 1.0690, and also crosses the 1.0700 threshold, the early-month bottom around 1.0725 and 50% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.0800 will challenge the upside moves. Above all, the bull’s dominance needs validation from a convergence of the four-month-old resistance line and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, around 1.0880. To sum up, the EURUSD pair is likely to remain weak but the room toward the south appears limited.
by MTradingGlobal
16 Apr - BankNifty takes support, 47465 crucial for trend conti.BankNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️ BN managed to hold on to 47465 levels quite decently. All intraday straddlers would have had a decent day as there were no swings or whipsaws. We opened below the 47465 level but managed to close above it giving some hope to the Bulls. If we close above 47465 levels on the 18th, I might change my stance from bearish to neutral. For bearish continuation, we need strong downside momentum - agreed that we lost 288pts ~ 0.6% today, but not breaking the support level is considered a negation of the trend. In the higher time frame, this is more obvious. See the closing 63mts candle, it is strong green with the lower part of the body right at the 47465 level. The next move would be more based on news than technical analysis, so it would even make sense to keep a close eye on macros like Iran-Israel conflict. --- BN algos ended the day with a profit of 26757, again exited prematurely in the opening 30mts itself as the time condition of the profits were met.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
05 Apr - Nifty was Flat, BankNifty picked up momentum!Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “Now take a look at the 63mts chart, and see where the reversal came from ~ 22295 levels. That is the main reason why we said a stance change is required only if 22295 is broken and since we did not do that, we continue to remain bullish.” Nifty had no momentum today, but BankNifty had lots of it. Yesterday SPX & NDQ had a real down day and its spillover effects were visible during the opening minutes. We opened gap-down and then slowly recovered from that. There were no abrupt or wild movements for a change. That takes me to the next question, why did we really have a 300+ point fall yesterday? It was not because of RBI MPC, otherwise we would have passed the swing high. How many of you think it could be because of the worsening situation in the Middle East? Today was an inside day with no real momentum and that does not mean that we are not bullish. We will keep an eye on the Global macros, if the news about the War widening in scope both in Ukraine and Israel is true then it could really kill the optimism. Just before the macros worsen - GOLD prices go up. An escalation of tensions will shoot up the OIL prices as well. At present, we have both.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
26th Dec ’23 - BankNifty stance changed to neutral, IV going upBankNifty Analysis Was quite surprised to see BankNifty following the ascending channel’s bottom trendline with a near correlation. Only for a brief period, we traded in RED, once BN pulled itself above water - it was able to hold its level quite strongly. 4mts chart link - click here KOTAKBANK, AXISBANK, and HDFCBANK were trading in green giving BN a much-needed green cushion. Even then there was no strong bullish momentum today - it was just that the bears did not have any control today. 63mts chart link - click here On the higher timeframe, BN is still inside the ascending channel. The bears are unable to exert any pressure post 20th December. Since BN is not ceding ground, I have to change my status from bearish to neutral for tomorrow. This week BankNifty and Nifty are expiring together on Thursday, which means we have no instruments expiring tomorrow 27th Dec. India VIX rose 7.08% today almost touching the 15 levels. Looks like VIX is creating an interim bottom. My EMA’s will show a golden crossover in 2 days if we continue the rising trend. After the news broke out about the drone attack on 2 vessels carrying Indian nationals - I seriously thought we would have a negative reaction today. Seems like the markets were not at all bothered. My next question is, will the market react to this news tomorrow? - “blast outside the Israel embassy in Delhi” VIX 1D chart - click here
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram
USDJPY retreats within two-month-old rising wedgeUSDJPY began the trading week on a back foot within a two-month-old rising wedge bearish chart formation. That said, the Yen pair snapped a four-week uptrend in the last but failed to confirm the rising wedge, neither it could break the 200-SMA support. However, the RSI conditions and the MACD conditions join the quote’s failure to cross the 50-SMA immediate resistance to keep the sellers hopeful. With this, the bears await a clear downside break of the aforementioned wedge’s bottom line, close to 148.30 by the press time, as well as a break of the 200-SMA support surrounding 147.70, to tighten the grip. It’s worth noting that the monthly low of around 147.30 could act as the final defense of the pair buyers before signaling the theoretical target of the rising wedge breakdown, around the 140.00 threshold. On the contrary, the USDJPY pair buyers need to cross the 50-SMA upside hurdle, near 149.20 at the latest, to retake control. Even so, the 150.00 psychological magnet can test the Yen pair bulls. Following that, the latest peak of around 150.20 and the wedge’s top line of near 150.80 will challenge the upside momentum ahead of directing the buyers toward the previous yearly high of around 152.00. Overall, the USDJPY pair teases the sellers but a downside break of the 147.30 becomes necessary for the bearish confirmation.
by MTradingGlobal
9th Oct ’23 - War news breaks support of BankNifty PostMortem BankNifty Analysis On Friday I changed my stance from bearish to neutral since we had a strong performance. We pushed through the 44068 resistance and maintained those levels. But today we dropped below that and even closed lower. Notice we took out the 44068 level in the opening 5mts candle itself. From there we hit a new swing low of 43796 and then recovered all the way up to 44068 before falling again. Sometimes the best technical indicator that is available is the support/resistance line. If BankNifty was really having good bullish strength - it would have cut through the resistance. A fall really shows weakness. On the 1hr TF BankNifty came from a double top formation and then made an isolated down day. Followed by 2 isolated up-days. Today we have another isolated down day that tested a new swing low. 43755 and 43603 levels are beneath - but not sure if we could stop there if the fall is mainly due to global macros. Since we have broken the support today, my stance will be bearish for tomorrow. Just think - why are the banks falling? No way they would have sanctioned loans to the firms in Israel right? My wildest guess is that there could be many firms that have strong business relationships with Israel, and those companies may have a higher debt:equity ratio. I am quite sure the details of exposure will come out within the next week. Are the risks evenly balanced - I guess not.
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by viswaram
1
9th Oct ’23 - Israel's War changes sentiment - PostMortem NiftyNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “For Monday, I wish to continue my neutral stance but keep my options open for bullish moves. The moment 19776 is tested and broken — we can expect further participation to take Nifty much ahead. For the bears to make a comeback — the US markets have to close in DEEP RED today.” Nifty opened mega gap-down due to the shocking developments over the weekend. Israel declared it is in a state of war after Hamas fired rockets and took hostage Israeli citizens - source. No one was expecting this sharp reversal in global macro. In fact, US markets closed last Friday pretty strong. Since I am not a Geo-political expert - I have no comments on what will happen, but the financial markets usually do not like uncertainty. The greatest risk right now is crude oil as the war is in the Middle East. If other countries join this battle - the risk of further escalation cannot be ruled out and the biggest victim could be the developing countries that import OIL. Even though the chart may confuse you, we only fell 0.86% ~ 168pts in the opening 10mts and that was the low for the day. The recovery was sharp and decent and we made it up to the 61.8% retracement level. From there we started falling but gradually. There again the low set in the initial 10mts still untouched. I had to go short today - not just because the chart told me, but because I thought fundamentally the perceived risk could be much higher. Already our markets have outperformed the global peers - and this risk-on should have prompted the FIIs to pull out more money. We might have to wait for a few days for more clarity to emerge, so I thought to take some risks with some long PUT options. The 1hr chart does not show a direction yet. If 19446 was taken out today - it would have shown bearishness - but it is neutral. For true bearishness 19350 or the recent swing low has to be taken out tomorrow. Well, I have a bearish bias because of the LONG PUT option - but the charts are not showing anything so far. If we bounce back from the 19446 level tomorrow also - I may be forced to close out the position at a loss. For tomorrow I would like to go with a 50% neutral and 50% bearish option. Nifty is not technically weak - it is the global macro that is weak. In the battle for technical analysis versus fundamental analysis - fundamental always wins especially when accompanied by strong news-flow.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
USDCAD bears attack resistance-turned-support near 1.3650USDCAD remains pressured for the third consecutive day after reversing from a 6.5-month high marked last week. In doing so, the Loonie pair struggles to justify the recent run-up of the US Dollar, mainly due to the risk-off mood, as Canada’s main export item, namely WTI crude oil, jumps 4.0% on geopolitical fears surrounding the Israel war. Apart from the strength of the Greenback and the WTI, a one-year-old previous resistance line surrounding 1.3650 also challenges the pair sellers. Should the quote break the 1.3650 support, sellers could rush toward the mid-January swing high near 1.3520. However, a convergence of the 200-day SMA and a three-month-old rising support line, close to 1.3460, will be a tough nut to crack for the pair bears. Meanwhile, the 1.3700 threshold guards the immediate upside of the USDCAD pair ahead of the latest swing surrounding 1.3785. Following that, the yearly high marked in March around 1.3865 and the 1.3900 round figure could lure the Loonie pair buyers. It’s worth noting that the previous yearly peak of near 1.3980 and the 1.4000 psychological magnet will challenge the pair’s upside past 1.3900 before giving a free hand to the bulls. Overall, USDCAD remains on the bull’s radar despite the latest retreat from the multi-month high.
by MTradingGlobal