9th Oct ’23 - War news breaks support of BankNifty PostMortem
BankNifty Analysis
On Friday I changed my stance from bearish to neutral since we had a strong performance. We pushed through the 44068 resistance and maintained those levels. But today we dropped below that and even closed lower.
Notice we took out the 44068 level in the opening 5mts candle itself. From there we hit a new swing low of 43796 and then recovered all the way up to 44068 before falling again. Sometimes the best technical indicator that is available is the support/resistance line. If BankNifty was really having good bullish strength - it would have cut through the resistance. A fall really shows weakness.
On the 1hr TF BankNifty came from a double top formation and then made an isolated down day. Followed by 2 isolated up-days. Today we have another isolated down day that tested a new swing low. 43755 and 43603 levels are beneath - but not sure if we could stop there if the fall is mainly due to global macros. Since we have broken the support today, my stance will be bearish for tomorrow.
Just think - why are the banks falling? No way they would have sanctioned loans to the firms in Israel right? My wildest guess is that there could be many firms that have strong business relationships with Israel, and those companies may have a higher debt:equity ratio. I am quite sure the details of exposure will come out within the next week. Are the risks evenly balanced - I guess not.
On Friday I changed my stance from bearish to neutral since we had a strong performance. We pushed through the 44068 resistance and maintained those levels. But today we dropped below that and even closed lower.
Notice we took out the 44068 level in the opening 5mts candle itself. From there we hit a new swing low of 43796 and then recovered all the way up to 44068 before falling again. Sometimes the best technical indicator that is available is the support/resistance line. If BankNifty was really having good bullish strength - it would have cut through the resistance. A fall really shows weakness.
On the 1hr TF BankNifty came from a double top formation and then made an isolated down day. Followed by 2 isolated up-days. Today we have another isolated down day that tested a new swing low. 43755 and 43603 levels are beneath - but not sure if we could stop there if the fall is mainly due to global macros. Since we have broken the support today, my stance will be bearish for tomorrow.
Just think - why are the banks falling? No way they would have sanctioned loans to the firms in Israel right? My wildest guess is that there could be many firms that have strong business relationships with Israel, and those companies may have a higher debt:equity ratio. I am quite sure the details of exposure will come out within the next week. Are the risks evenly balanced - I guess not.
