ITC
Swing SetupEXPLANATION : This is a 1 hour time frame chart of ITC . The stock has been consolidating for days in a descending channel and formed Falling Wedge pattern , If stock taking support from Demand zone we buy at the bottom and sell at the top. I am seeing a very good buying opportunity in ITC because of many reasons . If give a strong breakdown and broke its Demand zone with high volumes and retest the same , I am bearish on ITC . Always be extra cautious with breakout trade with confirmations .
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Levels for - 04 Oct 2021EXPLANATION : This is a 1 hour time frame chart of ITC , It has formed Symmetrical triangle pattern ; A symmetrical triangle chart pattern represents a period of consolidation before the price is forced to breakout or breakdown. A breakdown from the lower trendline marks the start of a new bearish trend , while a breakout from the upper trendline indicates the start of a new bullish trend . Both side levels marked in chart.
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ITC near Breakout 15M ITC is creating a Symmetrical triangle. it is also at very crucial level ie. 237 which wal acting as a resistance earlier but now acting as support for it.
200 days EMA is also near about 235. if ITC will break this pattern with high volume profile either side we can take position
you can go long above 240 and for short enter below 235 increased volume profile is must.
Will ITC be mooning soon? Buying opportunities..Looking at the chart, 234-240 had been a crucial level for ITC. For carrying up further or taking positions we might want to see its reaction to this zone. So, Go LONG if ITC sustains over this range or consolidates as it can give a good move towards 300 or above. Somehow if ITC breaks the zone towards downside, you might want to average out or buy at dips b/w 204-216. ITC must sustain over the current zone or show rejection from sellers for further rally. Before this huge move it had also formed up a Triple Bottom few days back that showed reversal and so it went pretty well. Here we will be getting up nice buying opportunities according to the setup.
ITC | Good risk reward | 18-20% potential| Be patientCMP- 204
SL- 198 >>>> 189(more logical and
Target- 245
14/7/21
- Price moving in descending triangle
- Ascending channel and support zone confluence
- Major support zone - 190-200
- Moving averages still at negative territory
- Volumes have dried up in the recent trading period
- RSI aligned with price
ITC going to break its 52 week High?If you observe chart you can see a falling wedge pattern in ITC after an Uptrend.
Generally in such situation there is a major chance for trend continuation after Falling wedge pattern successful breakout.
Here I have marked A and B points that are nothing but the two points on the trend lines.Upper trend line is Resistance and Lower trend line is Support.
So If ITC successfully breakout, how to calculate the target?
Target = B - A = 239.65 - 204.35 = 35.30
Roughly you can expect 30 to 35 rupees target. (If trend continues we can get more.)
Where to take entry?
If stock shows breakout , wait for a confirmation candle. You can also use MACD , RSI indicators for confirmation.
If in worst case, stock breaks the support, it can fall further.
Consider this stock for a long term as this stock is commonly known for a slow moving stock.
Stock is fundamentally strong. Stock has a great dividend-bonus history. The Company operates through different segments FMCG, Hotels, Paperboards, Paper and Packaging and Agri Business.
We can expect some positive news for the ITC in current market situation because the Deliverable quantity for ITC stock is increasing day by day.
So in future we can surely expect an Up trend.
Disclaimer : This is my personal analysis for educational purpose. I am not sebi registered. Do your analysis before taking a position. I am not responsible for any profit or loss.
ITC Intraday Trade Long SetupMy execution time frame zone will be 30 min time frame ...
Location of this demand zone 30min demand is low on the curve ( i.e close to High time frame HTF zone )
here it is Daily Time Frame zone is my Curve
Best thing is Our 30 min demand zone is near located to our Daily Demand curve
hence Probability of this 30 min demand zone is high
since I am plannng for Intraday I will take only 2:1 Reward -Risk ratio
Disclaimer:
Above Stock Analysis is based on Price Action , primarily on Institutional Demand and Supply .
It is for Learning and Understanding Purpose.
Even after a thorough research and Analysis a setup can fail due to any opposing News on the stock or on its Index or due to Market Volatility.
Hence ,if you trade on this setup kindly Take Position(Quantity) as per your Risk Management.
Happy Trading :)
ITC ABOUT TO BREA OUT MONTAHLY TRENDITC is about to break monthly trendline. RSI looks positive . we can enter if it breaks and retest the line.
Defensives' are in spotlight.
NOTE
1. PHARMA index is about to breakout. ( Due to defensive play)
2. REALITY INDEX has been upside . ( under values stocks are bought and expensive stocks has been sold)
3. Good MONSOON is good for ITC. ( buying due to good results on the way)
4. their has been some sectoral rotation , might be INDEX BALACING. ( ITC is undervalued also weightage is high in nifty index).
All above points show some good traction in ITC buying.
although One should avoid treading but put option selling might be beneficial if bought with hedge.
ITC Long Position in CashITC is has created a symmetrical triangle after falling in COVID Crash and currently resisting at around 240, which is near to falling trendline resistance on the monthly candle bar.
Considering a long consolidation of the past 6 month has created a strong base of buyers.
If stock retraced around 215-225 then, buy in small quantity till to 245 will be a good investor move.
Above breakout of 240-245, buy-on dip should continue till all-time high breakout.
Above all time break out, conside a TGT fpr 600-630-650 as profit booking zone.
Time is not considered but since, all stock had bull run then ITC, possibly a new high of CNX Nifty could come with support of ITC.
Trying to catch an ITC breakoutI tried multiple times to catch a breakout on ITC and it has had it's ups and downs.
1st position I built was on 1st June. I tried to be a little greedy with the possibility of a reward, chose Options. Bought 220 CE and ITC being ITC promptly retraced back below resistance, and pretty much wiped out the money in the position.
The 2nd time I tried a month later when the pullback looked promising, and this time I went with a Future contract instead. It again fizzled out and I had to exit early as the Future position was naked and had started to bleed losses.
The 3rd time I built the position the right way. I hedged my futures with just OTM puts, thereby capping the loss possibility. With the hedge margin benefit, I could open double the position and that offset the "loss" due to hedge. Once that was done, I was free to maintain and hold the position for as long as needed till a breakout did occur.
Why was I confident about a breakout? Well ITC has been forming a multi year symmetrical wedge - with Lower Highs, and Higher Lows. Though this has an equal chance to break both sides, at a price point near 200-215 ITC is very fairly priced even for a consolidating market - and given the bullish market sentiment, quite underpriced comparatively. For now I am continuing to trail SL on ITC and for the medium term expect it to make an up move to catch up with the rest of the market.
Learnings :
1. Stay away from naked options no matter how attractive they look . Though the rewards on Options looks awesome on paper, it is very very difficult to time a larger move correctly. More often than not, with a reversal you will quickly erode capital. Better avoid them to gain longer term rewards.
2. Always hedge your futures. You can in fact make more returns on a hedged position with twice the buildup, than you could with a naked single position - and you will still spend only half the margin requirement.
3. Be patient with your trades. Many a time we're looking for quick returns, especially if we're new in the market. The trick is to slow things down and look at the bigger picture. Make sure you limit your losses, and ride your winners for long - till they turn around decisively.