KOTAKBANK
Nifty in catch up mode & Bank Nifty takes a breatherNIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS 26-10-21
In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow.
O 18154.50
H 18310.45
L 18099.30
C 18268.40
EOD - +143 points /+0.79%
India VIX = 16.75 / -4.89%
SGX Nifty 26-10-21 1830h = Flat
FII DII = Unavailable till 1830h but likely to be net positive.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart
Nifty managed to reclaim the lost ground to some extent and closed above 18250.
After a mild gap-up opening, Nifty rose sharply but failed to hold higher levels around the FIB resistance of 18250-60. It then made a 150 point downward move.
It found support at 18100 and then made yet another failed attempt head higher but upon witnessing a positive FTSE open, it then rose sharply over the rest of the session and hit a high of 18310.
It thus made a higher high and a higher low.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
Top 5 Lifters contributed = 86
Top 5 Draggers contributed = 25
Net = +61
POSITIVES
Nifty made a strong recovery in the PM session and closed above 18250.
Nifty managed to find good support at 18100.
Despite selling pressure on account HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank, Nifty, as well as Bank Nifty, ended in the green.
Reliance made a good come back which made all the difference in the sentiment.
NEGATIVES
HDFC Bank fell yet again as peer pressure seems to be catching up on the big bro of Bank Nifty.
Infosys and TCS continue to remain weak and are witnessing selling pressure at every rise.
TRADING RANGE FOR 27 October 2021
Nifty 17900-950 as the new support base and 18300-350-400 would remain as the resistance for now.
I am unable to state any levels for Bank Nifty as it finds its ground in the territory above 41000. It is better to wait for the week to end before any level-based conclusions are drawn.
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
The insight re ICICI Bank is pasted as part of my tweet posted earlier in the evening. Here is the link --
The insight re HDFC Bank, Kotak Bank, and ICICI Bank in relation to Bank Nifty is posted here as a link to my tweet:
Please visit @umeshrindani as Tradingview does not allow the pasting of links yet for me.
What do you feel about this?
Here is the video link --
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
26-10-21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
---
Kotak bank is at crucial resistance zoneKotak mahindera bank has not participates in the bullish move of nifty which makes it a weak stock compare to overall market.
currently the stock is trading at crucial resistance zone which is also looks like a neck line ,If it closes above than we can expect an up move
Kind of head and shoulder pattern formation is also there.
KOTAK BANK MAY HAVE THE FUEL LEFT TO CONTINUE THE RALLYKotak bank has took out the strongest supply zone and also broke the previous swing high with good volumes.
The harmonic ABCD pattern gives us the targets of the next swing high. If these targets are taken out, the AB=CD pattern gives us the fib ratios until 3.618 when the AC is around 0.384 AB.
So there is a lot fuel left for the rally which could lift the Bank Nifty even more.
Buy in a pullback for better risk reward ratio.
Happy trading :)
This is just for educational purposes.
Simple Trade Setup | KOTAKBANK | 20-10-2021 [INTRADAY]NSE:KOTAKBANK
Observations:
1) On 1 day time frame, we can see that it took support and bounce from 21DMA.
Please refer below chart : 1day Time Frame.
2) On 1day time frame, major resistance is at 2050 to 2054 level range.
Please refer below chart : 1day Time Frame.
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Trade Setup for Date 20-10-2021:
Most of the levels will remains the same as per previous setup.
1) Don't Jump in to trade at the beginning of the market. Let it get settle for 15-20min first and judge the price action.
2) Everything is mentioned on the chart. I hope it is easy to understand.
3) All the levels will work as support, resistance, entry and exit w.r.t price action near that level.
4) Avoid gap up or gap down chase. Wait and trade between levels.
Please refer below chart for levels.
Hope I made it easy to understand it.
Do comment your doubt or suggestion.
Note: Trade with Strict SL. It may or may not hit all the levels. So one can book profit / loss at respective level considering how price action works near that level.
Simple Trade Setup | KOTAKBANK | 18-10-2021 [ INTRADAY]NSE:KOTAKBANK
Observations:
1) On 1 day time frame, we can see that it sustain and tested 21 DMA and took support from it.
21DMA is placed at 1995.78 level. Also another critical level is 2000 level.
So range of 1995 to 2000 will work as critical support zone.
Please refer below chart : 1day Time Frame.
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Trade Setup for Date 18-10-2021:
Most of the levels will remains the same as per previous setup.
1) Don't Jump in to trade at the beginning of the market. Let it get settle for 15-20min first and judge the price action.
2) Everything is mentioned on the chart. I hope it is easy to understand.
3) All the levels will work as support, resistance, entry and exit w.r.t price action near that level.
4) Avoid gap up or gap down chase. Wait and trade between levels.
Please refer below chart for levels.
Hope I made it easy to understand it.
Do comment your doubt or suggestion.
Note: Trade with Strict SL. It may or may not hit all the levels. So one can book profit / loss at respective level considering how price action works near that level.
KOTAK BANK : BullishEvery impulse wave follows some set of rules which we call them as SUTRAS for wave analysis. They are –
1. Wave 2 cannot move beyond the starting level of the wave 1. That means wave 2 never retrace 100 % of the wave 1.
2. Wave 3 is never the shortest one among the wave 1,3 & 5. It does not mean that it has to be the longest one.
3. Wave 4 never intervene into the price territory of the wave 1.
The stock can be considered in its 4th wave & is about to complete the 4th wave very soon. One should go long on current levels with SL of 1826 & look for the targets of 2170-2200 .
NIFTY BANK : CONSTITUENT PARTICIPATION, A FUTURISTIC PEEP INA comparative study of Nifty Bank along with its top 5 constituents revealing possible futuristic participation of all major participants, role change, weight change, possible growth scenarios and much more intriguing trend compositions
Constituents included in the study
1. Nifty Bank
2. SBIN
3. ICICI BANK
4. AXIS BANK
5. HDFC BANK
6. KOTAK BANK
EVERY CHART HAS ITS SAY !!
EFT BASED INVESTINGHello Readers!
As of EOD 01-10-2021, the indices ended in a good amount of Red and there is some sort of pessimism set in from the posts, messages that I have been reading and watching. People have started calling for downward levels citing DXY and global issues and whatnot.
As a trader/investor, I feel that the greater the pessimism and such pessimism is confirmed by a downward price move, the better it is. The reason is very simple -
We are not in a sorry state as we were in March-April 2020. So any dip may only be seen as a buying opportunity as indices eventually would go up. The problem occurs when one is trading in derivates where MTM losses have to be settled with the exchange via the broker and that is where the pain comes.
However, if one buys quality scrips during such dips, those would go up if not in line with the markets at least in line with the sectoral trend. But again, which stock to pick may be an issue as either these are already hanging in the air or are nowhere near fundamental/technical levels to initiate a buy.
So I thought of doing a check on the NIFTY as well as BANK NIFTY ETFs - where I already have some holdings invested at lower levels. I was quite pleased with what I ended up working out and therefore, thought of sharing the same with you folks. In fact, just before recording this video, I was talking to a friend and I explained to him what I have explained in the video and he was quite interested in placing the order next week.
Now, I am not a SEBI regd analyst / advisor, but my view is medium to long term as eventually, over a period of time indices tend to achieve higher highs and that is why I thought of this approach to investing.
Please let me know what do you think about it. Based on where NIFTY trades on 4-10-21, I may invest part of my funds into both the approaches that I have shared in the video.
Happy Learniing, Investing & Money Making!
Umesh
2-10-21
Was this a staged Closing of the Indices?NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -29-09-21
IN SUMMARY
OHLC
17,657.95
17,781.75
17,608.15
17,711.30
Close = -37.3 / -0.21%
H-L = 174 points
VIX 18.84 / +1.61%
FII DII: Data not available - likely to be negative.
SGX NIFTY @1950h - 17683 / -23 points
Likely open: Please read Insights at the end of the post.
CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS - 15 M Chart
A strong gap-down of 90 points and then there was the usual bounce back to test the opening high and then a sell-off which threatened to go and breach 17600 levels but then came some active buying which resulted in the index recovering in a somewhat choppy way.
It was only after 1300h that the index rallied and crossed 17750 and then came another sell-off which brought it below 17700 and then in a dramatic manner it was closed above 17700.
The trading range was down by half than that of yesterday.
NIFTY made a lower high, but a higher low and traded within the peak of yesterday’s close and yesterday’s lows. This is a consolidation before the monthly expiry.
NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS
NIFTY LIFTERS
NIFTY DRAGGERS
SBI
18.00
HDFC
31.00
JSW STEEL
13.00
HDFC BANK
27.00
IOC
12.00
RELIANCE
21.00
POWERGRID
10.00
ICICI BANK
16.00
SUN PHARMA
10.00
KOTAK BANK
11.00
63.00
106.00
Lifter - Draggers = -43
POSITIVES
NIFTY managed to close above 17700.
NIFTY did not breach 17600 despite selling pressure and a retest attempt on the downside was made on multiple occasions.
NEGATIVES
When all the heavyweights go against the upward trend, there is going to be negativity and that is what spooked the indices.
All key drivers were not in the mood to rise today and profit booking and or sell-off seems to have taken place ahead of expiry.
VIX keeps rising indicating more wild moves.
TRADING RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK:
This remains as it is --
NIFTY 17500-18100
BANK NIFTY 37200-38500-800.
INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS
As NIFTY was approaching its P Close at 17748, 17600 CE in which I was trading, also approached its P Close at 180. This is a rare coincidence that I have seen. Usually, Options tend to decay even during the day and here, 17600 CE remained intact despite a choppy AM session where the Index attempted to retest 17600 levels a couple of times and then showed weakness until about 1300h.
However, on a closing basis, there is some variation in the NIFTY and the ITM CE deviation from the P Close. THis may be on account of the weighted average close.
In my view, today’s close was staged as NIFTY topped out just around the closing highs of yesterday and from there it sold off to ensure that it ends below the P Close but above 17700.
Despite FTSE up by 60 points, NIFTY ended in the red. This is surprising. Though FTSE and NIFTY cannot be compared but NIFTY should have ideally followed the cue and closed positive, but instead, it ended red and at 1925h, the SGX is showing -73 even when the US markets are in the green.
Clearly, there is something that is beyond the ordinary eyes to see - i am carrying forward 17600 CE keeping global cues in mind and I could be completely wrong here but I going by what I believe is a mismatch.
What do you feel about this?
Thank you, and Happy Money Making!
Umesh
29-09-21
NOTE --
This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.
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