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Ascending triangle teases USDCAD bears ahead of BOC inflationUSDCAD portrays a bearish triangle formation after multiple rejections from the 1.3700 threshold. The sellers, however, await a clear downside break of the stated formation’s support, near 1.3590 by the press time, as well as the Bank of Canada inflation data. A clear break of the stated 1.3590 support, backed by upbeat BOC CPI, could quickly drag the quote to the 200-SMA level surrounding 1.3490-85. Following that, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s October-November fall, near 1.3400, could act as an intermediate halt during the south run aiming the theoretical target of 1.3270. In a case where the Loonie pair remains depressed below 1.3270, the previous monthly low, close to 1.3235, will gain the market’s attention. Alternatively, USDCAD needs a successful clearance of the 1.3700 hurdle, as well as softer Canada inflation, to defy the bearish chart formation. In that case, the previous monthly top and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level around 1.3810 will be in the spotlight. Should the Loonie pair remains firmer past 1.3810, the 1.3900 round figure and November’s high near 1.3975 could entertain buyers before highlighting the 1.4000 psychological magnet. Overall, USDCAD bears are ready for entry as traders await the key data from Canada.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bounces off key support ahead of US inflation dataEURUSD bears take a breather after refreshing the 20-year low the previous day. The corrective pullback, however, takes place at the lower end of the nearly four-month-old bearish channel. The rebound also gains support from oversold RSI and that too is ahead of the key US CPI data. Hence, sellers need caution and look for a clear upside break of the 78.6% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of March-May moves, near 1.0140, to change the bias. Even so, the 61.8% FE and May’s low, respectively around 1.0275 and 1.0350, could challenge the recovery moves before giving control to the buyers. Overall, the bears might stay hopeful until the quote stays inside the stated channel’s resistance line, close to 1.0500. On the contrary, the lower line of the stated channel, near the 1.000 psychological magnet, appears a tough nut to crack for the EURUSD bears. In a case where the major currency pair stays below the 1.0000 mark, the 100% FE level could act as the last defense for the sellers, a break of which won’t hesitate to drag the quote towards the late 2020 bottom surrounding 0.9860. Overall, EURUSD bears have had a long ruling and the odds are against them of late, at least technically. However, the fundamentals suggest further downside of the pair and hence buyers need discretion.
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD bulls have more upside on the platterGBPUSD braces for further upside until staying beyond the 100-SMA and a three-week-old horizontal resistance, now support 1.2400. That said, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of the pair’s downside from late April to the recent lows, around 1.2515, appears short-term target for the bulls. Following that, the 1.2600 threshold and the monthly peak surrounding 1.2640 should gain the market’s attention. In a case where the cable buyers dominate past 1.2640, the 200-SMA level near 1.2700 appears a tough nut to crack. Meanwhile, further selling should wait for a clear downside break of 1.2400 to aim for the early May swing low near 1.2260. In a case where GBPUSD prices remain weak past 1.2260, the recent multi-month low close to 1.2155 will act as the last defense for the bulls. It’s worth noting that sustained trading below 1.2155 could make the quote vulnerable to a slump towards the 1.2000 psychological magnet. To sum up, GBPUSD has had enough of the south-run and hence a short-term recovery can’t be ruled out.
by MTradingGlobal
USDCAD remains vulnerable to more downside ahead of Canada CPINot only a downside break of the monthly bullish channel but sustained trading beneath the 100-SMA also keeps USDCAD sellers hopeful ahead of Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday. Adding strength to the bearish bias is the downward sloping RSI (14) since the last week. That said, the 1.2800 appears immediate support for the quote ahead of directing it towards the 200-SMA level surrounding 1.2720. Any further downside, however, hinges on the pair’s ability to conquer the 1.2660-65 horizontal area comprising the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of April-May upside, as well as mid-April tops. Meanwhile, the 100-SMA level near 1.2875 limits the USDCAD pair’s immediate recovery moves before highlighting the lower line of the aforementioned channel, previous support around 1.2930. In a case where the pair rises past 1.2930, the weekly high of 1.2981 and the 1.3000 psychological magnet could test the buyers prior to highlighting the north-run towards the monthly peak close to 1.3075. Overall, USDCAD has already flashed bearish confirmation on the chart but today’s data also needs to back the move.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bears take a breather with eyes on 1.0760A one-month-old horizontal area probes EURUSD bears amid oversold RSI conditions, portraying a corrective pullback towards the late March low near 1.0945. However, a convergence of the 50-SMA and 100-SMA, as well as bearish MACD signals, can challenge sellers afterward. In a case where the SMA confluence fails to stop buyers, 1.1120 and the last monthly peak surrounding 1.1185 will act as validation points before giving reins to the bulls. On the contrary, fresh selling should wait for a clear downside break of the aforementioned horizontal support around 1.0885-80. Following that, the yearly low near 1.0800 will be quick to return to the charts. Though, the 61.8% FE of February-March moves near 1.0760 could test the EURUSD bears afterward. If at all the pair refrains from bouncing off the 61.8% FE level, the year 2020 bottom surrounding 1.0635 will be in focus.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD pullback remains elusive beyond 0.7550Despite refreshing a 10-month high the previous day, AUDUSD failed to provide a daily closing beyond the monthly resistance line, around 0.7600 by the press time. The resultant pullback moves currently battle October 2021 high while teasing the bears. That said, overbought RSI conditions add strength to the latest retreat, which in turn suggests the quote’s further downside in a case where it provides a daily closing below the late 2021 peak surrounding 0.7550. Following that, 10-DMA and 21-DMA, respectively around 0.7520 and 0.7430, will lure the sellers. However, a convergence of the 50-DMA and an ascending trend line from January, near 0.7285-80, acts as a tough nut to crack for the bears. Meanwhile, the Aussie pair’s sustained trading beyond the aforementioned resistance line, close to 0.7600, will need validation from the latest high around 0.7660 to convince buyers. In a case where AUDUSD buyers dominate past 0.7660, June’s top near 0.7780 and May’s peak of 0.7890 will gain the market’s attention during the pair’s further upside. It’s worth noting that the RSI conditions do signal a pullback before the further upside.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD stays below three-week-old support, bears eye 1.1270EURUSD keeps pullback from 50-SMA to kick-starts the key week comprising preliminary PMIs for February, as well as the second readings of US Q4 GDP. Recently keeping sellers hopeful is Friday’s downside break of a short-term support line, now resistance around 1.1335. Despite the latest corrective pullback, the below 50 RSI and bearish MACD signals, the quote is likely to extend the latest fall towards a horizontal area from late December, surrounding 1.1270. However, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of January-February upside will challenge the quote’s further downside around 1.1200, a break of which won’t hesitate to direct the bears towards the previous month’s low of 1.1120. On the contrary, the support-turned-resistance line and the 50-SMA, respectively around 1.1335 and 1.1375, guard the EURUSD pair’s short-term recovery moves. During the pair’s recovery past-1.1375, the 1.1400 threshold will act as a last defense for the sellers. Should the quote remain firmer beyond 1.1400, the monthly high surrounding 1.1495 and the 1.1500 round figure will probe the bulls. Overall, a sustained trading below the short-term important moving average and a trend line break favor EURUSD sellers.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD seller’s return eyes sub-0.7000 levelsAUDUSD marked a notable U-turn from the 50-DMA by the end of the key week. As RSI and MACD conditions back the recent weakness, another south-run towards breaking the 0.7000 psychological magnet can’t be ruled out. However, a convergence of the downward sloping trend line from August and 61.8% FE level of June 2021 and January 2022 moves, near 0.6920, become strong support. If at all the bears keep reins past 0.6920, the 0.6900 threshold may test the further downside towards June 2020 swing lows surrounding 0.6780. Alternatively, 50-DMA level surrounding 0.7165 guards immediate recovery moves of the AUDUSD prices. Following that, the 0.7200 round figure and the 100-DMA level of 0.7250 will be important to watch. It’s worth noting, however, that the pair’s rebound remains elusive below the previous month’s top of 0.7315. On a fundamental side, China’s return from the Lunar New Year holidays highlight AUDUSD as a lot has happened in the last week and Beijing will need to react to the hawkish monetary policy signals by the major central bank.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bulls approach key hurdles as ECB loomsEURUSD extends bounce off a 19-month low, also comprising 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of late September 2021 to early January 2022 moves, as traders await European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy decision. With the recently high inflation and record low Unemployment Rate in Eurozone, the policy hawks are likely to dominate, which in turn could propel the major currency pair towards breaking immediate resistance, namely the 50-day EMA level surrounding 1.1340. However, a convergence of the 100-day EMA and a 14-week-old resistance line, around 1.1430-35, will be the key hurdle to cross for the confirmation of a short-term bullish trend. On the contrary, a surprise dovish ECB statement wouldn’t hesitate to pour cold water on the face of EURUSD bulls by dragging the quote back to November 2021 low near 1.1185. During the fall, the 1.1300 and the 1.1230 levels may act as buffers before dragging prices towards the 61.8% FE retest, around 1.1125. If the pair bears keep reins past 1.1125, the early May 2020 peak surrounding 1.1020 will pause the south-run targeting the 1.1000 psychological magnet. It should be noted that the ECB is widely anticipated to keep the benchmark policy rate unchanged at 0.0% and the monthly Asset Purchase Programme (APP) to €20 billion. In the last meeting, the ECB announced readiness to end the Pandemic Purchase Emergency Programme (PEPP) in March. For a smooth transition, the bloc’s central bank also unveiled an increase in the Q2 and Q3 APP to €40 billion and €30 billion respectively.
Long
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD bulls eye short-term hurdle amid RBA playsAUDUSD bulls stay hopeful as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) ends QE, despite posting initial losses due to rejection of the immediate rate hike concerns. The upside momentum ignores recently cautious RBA Governor Philip Lowe’s comments while staying above a three-week-old descending resistance line, near 0.7115. That said, the 50-DMA level around 0.7170 acts as an immediate barrier for the pair to cross before directing the bulls towards the last home of bears, namely the 100-DMA level close to 0.7260. Alternatively, pullback moves may initially aim for the 0.7000 threshold ahead of highlighting the lows marked in December 2021 and January 2022, respectively around 0.6990 and 0.6965. In a case where the AUDUSD bears keep reins past 0.6965, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of mid-June 2021 to January 2022 moves, surrounding 0.6920, should gain the market’s attention. Overall, AUDUSD bulls are up for consolidating the early 2022 losses on hawkish RBA. However, the upside momentum needs caution as the US NFP is yet to play its role.
by MTradingGlobal
1
EURUSD bears aim for sub-1.1200 area post-Fed, US GDP eyedEURUSD bears cheer a clear downside break of a two-month-old ascending trend line, as well as sustained trading below 50-DMA, to brace for 2021 bottom surrounding 1.1185. The MACD and RSI both support the bearish bias. However, the pair’s declines past 1.1185 have a bumpy road as March 2020 swing high near 1.1150 and 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of late September 2021 to January 2022 moves around 1.1120 will challenge the sellers afterward. It’s worth noting that the RSI conditions also inch closer to the oversold territory and hence a move past 1.1185 will push it to signal a bounce before further south-run. Alternatively, the aforementioned support-turned-resistance line near 1.1295 precedes the 50-DMA level of 1.1315 to restrict short-term EURUSD rebound. Following that, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of September-November 2021 declines, close to 1.1360, will gain the market’s attention. It’s worth noting, however, that the pair’s upside beyond 1.1360 will be challenged by the 1.1460-65 resistance confluence, comprising 100-DMA and 38.2% Fibo. To sum up, EURUSD has already flagged downside signals towards 2021 bottom but any further weakness becomes doubtful.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY eyes further losses, 112.80 is the keyUSDJPY extends pullback from a four-year high, recently failed to keep the bounce off 113.50, amid downbeat MACD and RSI. That said, the yen pair’s further downside will poke the 100-DMA level of 113.25 but the previous resistance line from March 2021, around 112.80, could challenge the bears afterward. It should be noted, however, that a clear downside break of 112.80, won’t hesitate to direct the pair sellers towards tops marked in early October and May 2021, respectively around 112.00 and 111.65. Meanwhile, recovery moves can initially aim for the three-week-old resistance line near 114.50 before challenging the 20-DMA level surrounding 114.85. If USDJPY prices rise past 114.85, November 2021 peak near 115.50 will be in focus as it holds the key to the pair’s further advances targeting a fresh high of 2022, currently around 116.35. To sum up, USDJPY is expected to witness further declines but the bullish trend remains intact until the quote stays beyond 112.80.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bears flexing muscles ahead of ECB Meeting AccountsEURUSD remains on the back foot so far during the current week, heading into the key ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts. That said, the 200-SMA and an ascending trend line from November 24, respectively around 1.1320 and 1.1300, restrict the immediate downside of the major currency pair. Should the sellers manage to conquer the 1.1300 support, 1.1230 may offer an intermediate halt during the fall targeting 2021 bottom around 1.1185. It’s worth noting that the March 2020 high low near 1.1150 will probe the EURUSD pair’s weakness past 1.1185 before directing bears towards the 1.1000 psychological magnet. Meanwhile, the weekly resistance line, around 1.1380 at the latest, restricts the short-term rebound of the EURUSD prices. In a case where the quote rises past 1.1380, bulls will aim for 1.1430 and the monthly peak of 1.1485. If at all the EURUSD buyers keep reins past 1.1485, the latest bearish bias gets wiped out, which in turn propels the quote towards October 2021 high near 1.1690.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bears eye 1.1260 key support ahead of US ADP, FOMC MinuteHaving reversed from 50-DMA, EURUSD dropped beneath the 20-DMA and made seller’s way clear for a battle with a six-week-old support line, around 1.1260. However, cautious sentiment ahead of the key data/events tests the pair’s further downside. Even so, bearish MACD signals and a steady RSI line keep sellers hopeful to revisit the 2021 bottom surrounding 1.1185. Following that, March 2020 swing lows surrounding 1.1150 and 61.8% FE of November’s low near 1.1120 will be in focus. Meanwhile, the corrective pullback will aim for the 20-DMA level near 1.1310, a break of which will direct EURUSD buyers towards the 50-DMA level close to 1.1370. Also acting as the resistance is the recent peak of 1.1388 and a four-month-old resistance line around 1.1420. It’s worth noting, however, that a clear break of 1.1420 will open doors for the pair’s run-up towards September’s low surrounding 1.1525, which in turn will dash the bearish trend.
by MTradingGlobal
USDCAD bears have miles to go before retaking controlsUSDCAD bears are yet to provide a convincing sign of return despite Friday’s heavy fall. The 100-DMA, surrounding 1.2620, acts as an immediate hurdle to get more sellers on the board. However, the 200-DMA and an ascending support line from May, respectively around 1.2500 and 1.2420, become crucial challenges for the pair bears. Should USDCAD drop below 1.2420, odds of witnessing the quote’s downside to October month low close to 1.2285 can’t be ruled out. It’s worth noting that the RSI line has a small passage before testing the oversold territory and the MACD is losing the bullish bias, suggesting short-term declines. On the contrary, the corrective pullback may aim for 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of May-December up, near 1.2740. However, July’s high and a monthly horizontal hurdle, near 1.2810 and 1.2850 in that order, will challenge the USDCAD bulls afterward. Adding to the upside filter is September’s top of 1.2895 and 2021 peak close to 1.2965, not to forget the 1.3000 psychological magnet. That said, the Loonie pair bulls seem to have eased but the bears are yet to justify their strength.
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD refreshes 16-month low on the road to 1.1150Alike other major currencies, the broad US dollar strength could be well witnessed on the EURUSD chart that prints the lowest level since July 2020. In doing so, the quote slips below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of March 2020 to January 2021 upside, around 1.1300, which in turn joins the bearish MACD signals to keep sellers hopeful. However, oversold RSI conditions hint at a pullback and hence the pair’s further downside hinges on a daily closing below 1.1300. Following that, a horizontal area comprising highs marked during late March and lows of late June, around 1.1150, will be the key to watch. Alternatively, the EURUSD pair’s corrective pullback may aim for June 2020 peak near 1.1420 but any further upside will be challenged by March 2020 peak and 50% Fibonacci retracement level around 1.1500. Even if the pair provides a daily closing past 1.1500, multiple hurdles around the 1.1600 threshold will play their roles to challenge the buyers. To sum up, EURUSD bears are in control but RSI conditions signal a bounce before further declines.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD bulls step back from 100-DMA on softer UK CPIWith downbeat UK inflation figures pouring cold water on the face of BOE hawks, GBPUSD eases from 100-DMA, consolidating the previous day’s gains below 1.3800. For now, the 1.3700 mark, comprising multiple levels marked since late September, question the pair’s further weakness. Also acting as a downside filter is the ascending support line from September 30, near 1.3660. In a case where the cable prices drop below 1.3660, July’s low close to 1.3570 will gain the market’s attention. Meanwhile, recovery moves not only need to cross the 100-DMA immediate hurdle surrounding 1.3805. The reason is the 200-DMA and a descending resistance line from July 30, respectively near 1.3845 and 1.3860. During the quote’s rise past 1.3860, tops marked during July and late June, around 1.3985 and 1.4005 in that order, will be crucial before calling the GBPUSD bulls.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD tests five-week-old support line ahead of US inflationEURUSD remains pressured around the yearly lows as the pair traders await July month Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the US. The major currency pair dropped to the lowest since March the previous day while declining for the eighth consecutive day. However, a downward sloping trend line from July 07, around 1.1700, restricts the quote’s immediate losses. Although the oversold RSI conditions challenge short-term EURUSD downside, bearish MACD and sustained trading below 200-SMA keep the pair sellers hopeful. Hence, a clear break of the 1.1700 will serve as a trigger for the fresh selling towards another falling trend line support, this time from June 18, near 1.1655. On the contrary, the corrective pullback may aim for the last month’s low near 1.1750 before directing the EURUSD bulls to the 200-SMA surrounding 1.1830. It’s worth observing that the 1.1800 round figure may act as an extra filter to the north before 1.1830 but bears are less likely to leave the desk until the prices stay below July’s low close to 1.1910. Overall, EURUSD portrays bearish consolidation moves ahead of the key US inflation figures.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD bulls return from 0.7730-25 support confluence AUDUSD reverses the previous day’s losses while a bounce off 50-day and 100-day SMA confluence near 0.7730-25. Given the normal RSI conditions and strong support, the quote is expected to keep the recovery moves while trying to cross the key resistance line, around 0.7770, for one more time. While a clear break above 0.7770 enables the buyers to aim for 0.7815, any further upside will need to cross the 0.7820 hurdle to direct the bullish impulse towards May’s top near 0.7890. On the contrary, a downside break of 0.7725 will aim for a 0.7675 level, comprising early April highs and May’s lows. It should, however, be noted that a clear south-run past 0.7675 won’t hesitate to refresh the monthly bottom below 0.7644. In the case where the AUDUSD remains bearish below 0.7644, which is less likely, 0.7585 and April’s low close to 0.7530 should gain the market’s attention.
Long
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD aims 200-DMA re-test with eyes on Federal ReserveNot only failures to cross the support-turned-resistance line during the previous week’s bounce but bearish MACD and weak RSI, not oversold, also favors EURUSD bears as global markets prepare for the Fed decision on Wednesday. However, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of November 2020 to January 2021 upside, around 1.1885, offers immediate support to the quote before dragging it to the key 200-day SMA (DMA) near 1.1835. Should Powell & Company use the word “taper”, odds of the pair’s further downside towards November 11, 2020 low near 1.1745 can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, 50% Fibonacci retracement level and the previous support line, respectively around 1.1975 and 1.1990 guards immediate EURUSD upside ahead of the 1.2000 threshold if at all the Fed overcomes the bearish hopes stronger than now. Also acting as the key upside barrier is the mid-February lows near 1.2020 as well as the monthly peak surrounding 1.2115. Overall, EUR/USD moves are likely to remain sluggish, but bearish, ahead of the Fed while the following performance depends on how the US central bank manages to praise the fiscal stimulus and reject reflation/tapering fears.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
1
AUDUSD remains vulnerable despite corrective pullback above 0.76AUDUSD wavers around 11-week-old support during early Tuesday, recently bouncing off the monthly low. However, the pair’s sustained trading below an ascending trend line from November 02 and 50-day SMA keeps sellers hopeful. While fresh selling should begin following a daily closing below the immediate support line, at 0.7650 now, the yearly bottom around 0.7560 and the 100-day SMA level near 0.7530 will test the bears afterward. Meanwhile, an upside break of 50-day SMA and the support-turned-resistance line, respectively around 0.7735 and 0.7775, will have to refresh the monthly top near 0.7840 to recall the AUDUSD bulls. Following that, the 0.7900 round-figure may offer an intermediate halt during the rally targeting to refresh February’s peak close to the 0.8000 psychological magnet.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD bulls attack 12-week-long hurdle before US Q4 GDPAlthough reflation risk propels EURUSD near one-month high, the quote battles the key hurdle from early December 2020 that probed the bulls during late-January. Not only the key resistance but the cautious sentiment ahead of the preliminary readings of the US Q4 GDP, expected 4.1% versus 4.0% forecast, could also offer near-term direction to the quote. While disappointing data is likely to help the EURUSD to cross the 1.2175-90 resistance area, pullback moves will have difficulties as an ascending trend line from November 04 and 100-day SMA, respectively around 1.2025 and 1.2010, can challenge the bears. On the contrary, successful trading above 1.2190 can eye the mid-December 2020 tops near 1.2272. Though, multiple hurdles around 1.2300 and 1.2310 could offer a bumpy road to the EURUSD bulls past-1.2272, a break of which could quickly cross the yearly top near 1.2350 towards the April 2018 peak surrounding 1.2415. To sum up, EURUSD bulls seem tiring near the key resistance and today’s data may offer the much-awaited trigger to the pullback moves. As a result, traders should remain cautious ahead of the stated growth figures.
Long
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD refreshes multi-day top inside immediate bullish channelDespite recently easing to 1.4015, GBPUSD keeps the early-day run-up to the fresh top since April 2018. The cable’s latest pullback could be traced from its failures to defy an ascending channel formation since February 02. However, the bears aren’t likely to return until witnessing a clear downside break of the stated channel’s support as well as 200-SMA. That said, the upper line of the channel, at 1.4060 now, offers an intermediate halt during the run-up that ultimately targets the April 2018 peak surrounding 1.4375. On the contrary, the 1.4000 psychological magnet and one-week-old horizontal support around 1.3950 seem to lure short-term GBPUSD sellers ahead of the stated channel’s support line near 1. 3880. Even if the quote defies the bullish chart pattern, January’s top near 1.3760 and 200-SMA level near 1.3715 will test the bears. Furthermore, an upward sloping trend line from January 11 around 1.3630 will add to the downside filters for the sterling traders to watch.
Long
by MTradingGlobal