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Gold trades cautiously as strong dollar impacts market.🟡 XAUUSD – Intraday Smart Money Trading Plan (H1) 📈 Market Environment Gold remains highly reactive today as traders digest ongoing USD volatility driven by U.S. rate expectations and political headlines, keeping safe-haven flows unstable. Instead of clean trends, price action continues to favor range manipulation and liquidity-driven moves. This backdrop supports a Smart Money environment where institutions engineer price into key extremes to trap late buyers and sellers before the real move unfolds. 🔎 Smart Money Technical Outlook Current Condition: Price is trading within a rising internal channel, respecting higher-lows while repeatedly reacting at premium and discount extremes. Recent moves show corrective pullbacks, not impulsive trend continuation. SMC Bias: ➡️ Sell at premium ➡️ Buy only at deep discount ➡️ Entries only after structure confirmation Key Observations: • Prior buy-side liquidity already tapped • Multiple CHoCH signals confirm rotational flow • Price respecting internal trendlines • Discount aligns with bullish order block • Premium capped near previous target & imbalance 💧 Liquidity Zones & Key Levels 🔴 SELL ZONE: 5,100 – 5,102 🛑 Stop Loss: 5,110 🟢 BUY ZONE: 4,722 – 4,720 🛑 Stop Loss: 4,712 🧠 Institutional Playbook Inducement → Liquidity sweep → CHoCH / MSS → BOS → displacement → OB entry → expansion 🔴 SELL Setup — Premium Distribution Sell Area: 5,100 – 5,102 Execution Criteria: Price reaches premium within channel News-driven push into prior target zone Bearish CHoCH / MSS on M5–M15 Clear downside BOS Entry from bearish OB or FVG Targets: • 5,020 — first reaction • 4,950 — mid-range liquidity • Trail if downside displacement expands 🟢 BUY Setup — Discount Accumulation Buy Area: 4,722 – 4,720 Execution Criteria: Sweep of sell-side liquidity Deep discount relative to range Bullish CHoCH / MSS on LTF Strong bullish displacement Entry from refined bullish OB Targets: • 4,850 — internal reaction • 4,980 — liquidity magnet • 5,100 — previous high if expansion continues ⚠️ Risk Management Notes • Expect fake breakouts during headlines • No confirmation = no trade • Reduce risk during news spikes • Let structure lead, not emotion 📍 Final Takeaway Gold is not trending — it’s being engineered. Sell strength at premium. Buy weakness only at deep discount. 📌 @Follow Ryan_TitanTrader for daily Smart Money gold breakdowns.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_TitanTrader
Gold Trades the Extremes as News Fuels Liquidity Games🟡 XAUUSD – Intraday Smart Money Plan (H1) 📈 Market Context Gold remains highly sensitive today as markets react to President Trump’s announcement, keeping USD flows unstable and risk sentiment mixed. This environment favors liquidity engineering, not trend chasing. Institutions are exploiting news-driven emotions to distribute at premium and accumulate at discount. With volatility elevated, expect false breaks, inducements, and stop hunts around key levels rather than clean directional moves. 🔎 Smart Money Technical Read Current State: Price is trading inside a managed range after a buy-side liquidity grab. Intraday structure shows distribution from premium, while downside moves are corrective rather than impulsive. Core Idea: Let price come to Smart Money — sell premium or buy deep discount only after confirmation. Structure Observations: • Buy-side liquidity already delivered • Multiple CHoCH signals confirm corrective flow • Price respecting descending internal channel • Discount aligns with prior sell-side liquidity • Premium capped by institutional supply & imbalance Liquidity Zones & Key Levels • 🔴 SELL GOLD: 5,020 – 5,060 • 🟢 BUY GOLD: 4,720 – 4,760 🧠 Institutional Expectation Inducement → Liquidity sweep → CHoCH / MSS → BOS → displacement → OB / FVG entry → expansion 🔴 SELL Scenario — Premium Distribution Sell Zone: 5,020 – 5,060 Conditions: ✔ Price taps premium / prior sell-high ✔ News-driven push into resistance ✔ Bearish CHoCH or MSS on M5–M15 ✔ Downside BOS confirms intent ✔ Entry via bearish OB or FVG Targets: • 4,950 — internal reaction • 4,820 — range low • Trail if momentum expands 🟢 BUY Scenario — Discount Accumulation Buy Zone: 4,720 – 4,760 Conditions: ✔ Sweep below sell-side liquidity ✔ Discount relative to HTF range ✔ Bullish CHoCH / MSS on LTF ✔ Strong displacement confirms buyers ✔ Entry from refined bullish OB Targets: • 4,850 — first reaction • 4,980 — internal liquidity • 5,050+ — if expansion resumes ⚠️ Risk Notes • Expect fake breakouts during headlines • No trade without structure confirmation • Reduce size near news spikes • Patience > prediction 📍 Summary Gold is a Smart Money range play today: • Sell strength at premium • Buy weakness only at deep discount 📌 Follow @Ryan_TitanTrader for daily Smart Money gold breakdowns.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_TitanTrader
1
GOLD before Non-Farm: Sideways or a Trap?🌍 Macro Background Continuing to monitor U.S. – Iran tensions and whether escalation occurs. Japan: maintaining a weak JPY → USD remains supported. A heavy news week ahead: FED speeches (today) Labor market data Inflation data later this week 👉 Market sentiment remains cautious, waiting for a clearer directional catalyst. 📈 Trend & Structure Overall price structure remains unchanged: Gold is in the final phase of a corrective rebound. Upside momentum still exists, but limited, while reversal risk is increasing. Price is consolidating near resistance → sideways conditions are favored. 🔴 Resistance – 🟢 Support 🔴 Resistance: 5,050 – 5,100 🟢 Near support: 4,980 – 4,950 🟢 Additional support: 4,930 – 4,936 🟢 Deeper support: 4,880 – 4,850 📊 Trading Scenarios ✅ Primary scenario (higher probability): Sideways – range trading Sell reactions around 5,050 Condition: rejection candles / bearish confirmation Buy technical pullbacks at support zones Focus on M15 – H1, quick and disciplined trades. ⚠️ Alternative scenario (lower probability): Bullish breakout Mandatory condition: H1 close clearly above 5,100 Only then consider buying the breakout. 🧠 Risk Management Avoid holding large positions during: FED speeches Labor market & inflation releases No FOMO — wait for candle confirmation.
FOREXCOM:GOLD
by Chum_trades
XAGUSD 1H Bearish Trendline Rejection📉 Market Structure Primary trend: Bearish Price is making lower highs & lower lows Clear descending channel visible The recent rally looks like a corrective pullback, not a trend reversal 🔴 Key Rejection Zone Resistance: 83.50 – 84.20 Price has been rejected exactly at the descending trendline Bearish reaction candle + arrow confirms seller dominance 📊Pattern Insight Structure resembles a bear flag / falling channel Impulse down → consolidation → rejection → continuation expected Trendline break did NOT happen → bearish continuation favored ❌ Invalidation Hourly close above 85.00 setup Clean breakout + hold above descending trendline→ would delay or invalidate bearish setup
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by samscripter
GOLD before US Jobs & Inflation Data: Key Scenarios?🌍 Macro Context & Market Expectations This week, the market is closely focused on: US employment data US inflation data (CPI / PCE) Additionally, traders are monitoring: Developments in US–Iran negotiations US Supreme Court rulings related to trade tariffs → These factors may amplify short-term volatility, especially around key technical levels. 📈 Trend & Market Structure Medium-term trend: BULLISH Price has rebounded strongly from the ~4,700 low to around 5,04x Last week printed a bullish Hammer candle, confirming long-term buying interest On the H12 timeframe, the A–B–C corrective structure is not yet complete Short term: price is consolidating within a tightening range, waiting for a clear breakout 🔑 Key Price Levels 🟢 Support: 5,000 | 4,950 | 4,930 | 4,850 | 4,700 | 4,650 🔴 Resistance: 5,050 | 5,095 | 5,100 | 5,110 | 5,200 | 5,300 🎯 Primary Scenarios ✅ Bullish continuation Price holds above 4,930 and breaks decisively above 5,050 → Potential upside toward 5,095 – 5,100, and further to 5,200 – 5,300 ❌ Failed breakout / Pullback Price fails to clear 5,050 and closes below 4,930 → Likely correction toward 4,850, with deeper pullback to 4,700 – 4,650 🧭 Trading Strategy Prioritize buy-the-dip opportunities in line with the trend Avoid counter-trend shorts unless clear reversal signals appear at resistance Stay patient and avoid FOMO — only trade when risk–reward is clearly defined
TVC:GOLDLong
by Chum_trades
GOLD before US Jobs & Inflation Data: Key Scenarios?🌍 Macro Context & Market Expectations This week, the market is closely focused on: US employment data US inflation data (CPI / PCE) Additionally, traders are monitoring: Developments in US–Iran negotiations US Supreme Court rulings related to trade tariffs → These factors may amplify short-term volatility, especially around key technical levels. 📈 Trend & Market Structure Medium-term trend: BULLISH Price has rebounded strongly from the ~4,700 low to around 5,04x Last week printed a bullish Hammer candle, confirming long-term buying interest On the H12 timeframe, the A–B–C corrective structure is not yet complete Short term: price is consolidating within a tightening range, waiting for a clear breakout 🔑 Key Price Levels 🟢 Support: 5,000 | 4,950 | 4,930 | 4,850 | 4,700 | 4,650 🔴 Resistance: 5,050 | 5,095 | 5,100 | 5,110 | 5,200 | 5,300 🎯 Primary Scenarios ✅ Bullish continuation Price holds above 4,930 and breaks decisively above 5,050 → Potential upside toward 5,095 – 5,100, and further to 5,200 – 5,300 ❌ Failed breakout / Pullback Price fails to clear 5,050 and closes below 4,930 → Likely correction toward 4,850, with deeper pullback to 4,700 – 4,650 🧭 Trading Strategy Prioritize buy-the-dip opportunities in line with the trend Avoid counter-trend shorts unless clear reversal signals appear at resistance Stay patient and avoid FOMO — only trade when risk–reward is clearly defined
TVC:GOLDLong
by Chum_trades
Gold at highs; CPI, Fed bets impact liquidity.🟡 XAUUSD — Weekly Smart Money Plan (SMC) 📈 Market Context Gold enters the new week in a liquidity-driven environment as traders react to hot U.S. CPI expectations, shifting Fed rate-cut odds, and volatile U.S. yields. News is fueling emotion and stop runs, not clean trends. This is prime conditions for Smart Money to distribute at premium and accumulate at discount. Expect headline spikes, false breakouts, and engineered moves around key weekly levels. Smart Money Technical Read Current State: After an impulsive bearish displacement from highs, price is now rotating inside a managed weekly range. Upside moves look corrective, while sell-offs are sharp and efficient — a classic sign of institutional control. Core Bias: Sell premium / Buy deep discount only after structure confirmation. No chasing. Let price come to Smart Money levels. Structure Notes: • HTF buy-side liquidity already swept • Bearish displacement signals distribution • Internal rallies show weak follow-through • Discount aligns with prior sell-side liquidity • Premium capped by HTF supply zone Liquidity Zones & Key Weekly Levels 🔴 SELL GOLD: 5150 – 5152 SL: 5160 🟢 BUY GOLD: 4580 – 4578 SL: 4570 🔴 SELL Scenario — Weekly Premium Distribution Conditions: ✔ Price spikes into 5150–5152 on news or USD weakness ✔ Buy-side liquidity sweep above recent highs ✔ Bearish CHoCH / MSS on H1–M15 ✔ Downside BOS confirms institutional intent ✔ Entry via bearish OB or FVG Targets: • 5020 — internal reaction • 4800 — mid-range liquidity • 4600s — weekly discount expansion 🟢 BUY Scenario — Weekly Discount Accumulation Conditions: ✔ Sell-side liquidity sweep below 4580 ✔ Deep discount vs weekly range ✔ Bullish CHoCH / MSS on LTF ✔ Strong bullish displacement ✔ Entry from refined bullish OB Targets: • 4750 — first reaction • 4950 — internal liquidity • 5100+ — if weekly expansion resumes Institutional Playbook Inducement → Liquidity Sweep → CHoCH/MSS → BOS → Displacement → OB/FVG → Expansion Risk Notes • Expect fake moves during CPI & Fed headlines • No structure = no trade • Reduce risk during news spikes • Patience beats prediction 📍 Weekly Summary Gold is a Smart Money range game this week: • Sell strength at premium (5150s) • Buy weakness only at deep discount (4580s) Trade levels. Respect structure. Let liquidity do the work. 📌 Follow @Ryan_TitanTrader for Smart Money gold breakdowns.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_TitanTrader
Gold Faces Strong Selling PressureGold came under heavy selling pressure after failing to break above the 5,100 USD level overnight and subsequently falling below 4,900 USD during today’s trading session. The US dollar climbed to its highest level in two weeks and appears to be extending its recent solid recovery from a four-year low, which is adding notable downside pressure to the precious metal. In addition, the current corrective move is still struggling, as price remains below the trendline. As long as this trendline—and more importantly the recent high at 5,100 USD—is not convincingly broken, the path of least resistance remains to the downside. What’s your view? How do you see the next move for OANDA:XAUUSD ?
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Win_Sama
Silver’s Breakdown Points to Much Lower LevelsSilver’s recent price action is not showing signs of strength or accumulation. Instead, it reflects a clean structural breakdown followed by weak, corrective consolidation — the kind of behavior that usually precedes another leg lower. After losing the key $84 level, silver didn’t stabilize or reclaim lost territory. It simply drifted into a lower range, suggesting that the move down was not just a temporary flush, but the start of a broader repricing phase. What the market is doing now looks less like accumulation and more like post-breakdown exhaustion. The $84 zone: where structure changed The $84 area was a major structural level. It acted as a balance zone where price previously found support and built value. Once that level broke: Buyers lost control of the structure The market shifted from balance to imbalance Liquidity started moving downward Strong markets defend key levels. Weak markets lose them and never look back. So far, silver is behaving like the latter. The inability to reclaim $84 suggests that the market is now operating in a lower value regime, where rallies are likely to be sold into, not chased higher. Current price action: drift, not recovery After the sharp drop, price entered a sideways range. But this range lacks the characteristics of real accumulation. There is: No strong impulsive buying No reclaim of broken structure No sustained upward expansion Instead, the market is: Printing lower highs Moving sideways to slightly down Showing reactive buying, not aggressive accumulation This type of behavior is typical in markets that are pausing before the next leg lower. The downside path: where liquidity sits Below the current price, multiple untested liquidity zones remain. These areas represent prior consolidation, psychological levels, and structural supports. First major target: $56.52 This is the nearest meaningful support zone. It represents: A prior demand area A structural pause in the previous trend A natural magnet after the $84 breakdown A move to this level would be a logical continuation, not a panic move. Secondary target: $49.78 If $56 fails to hold, the next liquidity pocket sits near $49.78. This level aligns with: Deeper structural support A prior consolidation region A zone where longer-term buyers may begin to re-enter This would represent a full structural correction from the $84 breakdown. Deeper flush zones: $44.13 → $37.48 → $34.82 If the market enters a true risk-off phase or broad commodity weakness: $44 becomes the next major structural test $37 acts as a deeper psychological and technical level $34 represents a full-cycle liquidity reset zone These levels are where: Long-term positioning resets Weak hands are fully cleared out Real accumulation could begin Why the bearish scenario makes structural sense Several factors support the downside path: 1) Clean structural breakdown The loss of $84 shifted the entire market regime. 2) Lack of impulsive recovery Strong markets bounce fast. Weak markets drift. 3) Overhead supply above current price Every rally now runs into trapped longs from higher levels. 4) Untested liquidity below Multiple clean targets sit beneath the current range. Markets naturally move toward unfilled liquidity zones. The likely sequence from here The higher-probability path: Continued sideways-to-lower drift below $84 Gradual breakdown of the current range First major test around $56.52 If that fails, extension toward $49.78 Deeper flush possible toward $44 → $37 → $34 zones Real accumulation is more likely after these levels are tested, not at current prices. Bottom line Silver is not showing signs of a bottom. It’s showing signs of a market adjusting to a lower price regime. The $84 breakdown changed the structure. Since then, price has only drifted — not recovered. That usually means the move isn’t over. The structure currently favors: First major downside target: $56.52 Secondary level: $49.78 Deeper reset zones: $44 → $37 → $34 This isn’t a base in silver. It’s a pause before the next move.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by SwingOptionTrading
Chumtrades XAUUSD Has Wave B finished?GOLD – DAILY PLAN Has Wave B finished? → No confirmation yet. Macro & Market Sentiment US–Iran negotiations have been cancelled. Geopolitical risks remain, but not strong enough to trigger a new bullish wave. Gold experienced a relatively calm trading session, failed to break above the key level around 5,100, and saw a moderate pullback during the US session. The Daily candle formed a Spinning Top, indicating market indecision and consolidation, with a lack of momentum for a breakout. 👉 Macro factors are supporting prices, but not pushing the market into an immediate uptrend. Technical Structure & Outlook Price is still moving within a descending price channel. On the H1 timeframe, price has broken above the 4,888 key level, showing a technical rebound. However, the higher timeframe structure remains bearish, with no confirmed trend reversal. → Therefore, current rebounds are considered pullbacks within a downtrend. Key Levels Support: 4,810 | 4,830 | 4,700–4,750 | 4,650–4,624 Resistance: 4,950–5,000 | 5,100 Trading Scenarios Primary strategy: Sell the rallies within the descending channel. Look for SELL setups near resistance zones, targeting lower lows. Momentum SELL may be considered if price clearly breaks below 4,882–4,890, with confirmation on H2 or H4, targeting around 4,810. No BUY positions while price remains inside the descending channel. 👉 Only if price breaks and holds above 5,100, will we start reassessing a trend-following BUY scenario. 👉 Deeper pullbacks are viewed as potential zones for swing BUY opportunities, not short-term buys at this stage. Note: The market is in a “confidence-testing” phase. Focus on zone-based trading, trend alignment, reduced position size, and avoid FOMO.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Chum_trades
What’s Next for Gold?Gold’s sharp rebound from the recent lows has reignited calls for an immediate continuation toward new highs. But the structure tells a more nuanced story. The rally so far looks less like fresh upside momentum and more like a classic relief move after forced liquidation. The recent selloff flushed leverage aggressively. Stops were triggered, weak hands exited, and positioning reset fast. What followed wasn’t accumulation — it was short-covering and mean reversion. This matters because markets that truly want to trend higher don’t need to retrace this violently first. The key zone: supply above, not support below Gold is now approaching a well-defined supply band, roughly around the 5,250–5,300 region. This zone is important for three reasons: It was a prior distribution area before the breakdown It aligns with VWAP / value rejection from the last impulse down It represents the level where trapped longs may look to exit breakeven In other words, this is where selling interest naturally returns, not where new longs should feel comfortable. If Gold were truly in a strong continuation phase, it would have: Built a base Absorbed supply Then expanded higher Instead, price is walking straight back into overhead resistance. Liquidity behavior doesn’t confirm strength Despite the bounce, liquidity behavior remains defensive. • Rallies are corrective, not impulsive • Volume expands on down moves, not up moves • Buyers are reactive, sellers are proactive This is typical of a market inside a larger corrective phase, not the start of a fresh leg higher. Gold often rallies hardest after fear peaks — but it doesn’t trend sustainably until supply is fully absorbed. That process takes time. Macro tailwinds aren’t immediate triggers Yes, long-term macro drivers for gold remain intact. But markets don’t move on narratives alone — they move on timing and positioning. If global liquidity remains tight or even mildly restrictive, gold doesn’t collapse — but it also doesn’t trend freely. It oscillates, frustrates, and cleans up positioning. That’s exactly what current structure suggests. The probable path from here From a trader’s perspective, the higher-probability sequence is: • Price tests the 5,250–5,300 supply zone • Sellers re-engage into strength • Volatility compresses or rejection appears • Market either ranges or pulls back before the next real move A clean break and acceptance above this zone would invalidate the view — but until then, this is resistance, not confirmation. Bottom line Gold’s bounce is real — but bounces are not trends. This move looks like: A reaction, not initiation Short-covering, not accumulation Repair work, not breakout Strong markets build value below resistance. Weak or corrective markets rush into it. Right now, Gold is doing the latter.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by SwingOptionTrading
XAUUSD – H2 Technical AnalysisXAUUSD – H2 Technical Outlook: Bullish Structure Rebuild as Precious Metals Surge | Lana ✨ Precious metals are back in focus as silver surges sharply, adding momentum to the broader metals complex. In this context, gold is showing signs of structure rebuilding after a healthy correction, setting the stage for potential continuation. 📈 Market Structure & Technical Context After a strong impulsive drop, gold successfully defended the 4,420–4,450 strong support zone, where buyers stepped in decisively. Since then, price has been forming higher lows along an ascending trendline, signalling a shift from distribution into recovery. The current price action suggests this move is corrective-to-bullish, not just a short-lived bounce. 🔍 Key Levels to Watch Strong Support: 4,420 – 4,450 This zone remains the structural base. As long as price holds above it, bullish scenarios stay valid. Mid Resistance / Reaction Zone: ~5,050 – 5,080 Price is currently consolidating here, absorbing supply after the rebound. Next Resistance: ~5,135 A clean break and acceptance above this level would confirm continuation strength. Upper Targets: ~5,300 – 5,350 Aligned with Fibonacci extensions and prior supply zones. Higher Objective: ~5,580 Only in play if bullish momentum accelerates across the metals market. 🎯 Bullish Scenarios If gold continues to respect the upper trendline and holds above the 5,000 psychological level: A brief pullback into 5,000–5,050 could offer structure for continuation. Acceptance above 5,135 opens the path toward 5,300+. Strong momentum, supported by silver’s breakout, could extend moves toward 5,580. Any pullbacks toward support are currently viewed as constructive corrections, not weakness. 🌍 Intermarket Insight Silver’s sharp rally highlights renewed demand across precious metals, often acting as a leading signal for broader sector strength. This backdrop supports the idea that gold’s recent correction was a reset, not a reversal. 🧠 Lana’s View Gold is rebuilding its bullish structure step by step. The focus is not on chasing price, but on how price reacts at key levels. As long as structure and momentum remain aligned, the broader trend stays constructive. ✨ Stay patient, respect the zones, and let the market confirm the next expansion.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Lana_M2
2
XAUUSD (H3) – Liam PlanXAUUSD (H3) – Liam Plan Safe-haven bid is back, but structure is still corrective | Trade the zones, not the headlines Quick summary Gold is up for a second day as US–Iran tensions revive safe-haven demand. At the same time, expectations for Fed rate cuts keep the USD on the defensive, which typically supports non-yielding assets like gold. However, with ADP and ISM Services PMI ahead, short-term volatility can spike fast — and that’s exactly where gold tends to run liquidity before choosing direction. My approach: respect the macro tailwind, but execute based on structure. Macro context Gold usually benefits when: geopolitical risk rises (risk-off flows), rate-cut expectations increase (lower real yields), the USD weakens or struggles to sustain a bounce. That said, pre-data sessions often produce fake moves. The market will likely “test” both sides before committing. Technical view (H3 – based on the chart) Price rebounded sharply from the recent low, but the overall swing structure is still in a correction / rebalancing phase after a major impulse down. Key zones on the chart: Major supply / premium target: 5570 – 5580 This is the clear “sell reaction” zone if price expands higher. Current decision area: around 5050 – 5100 Price is pushing back into a key mid-range level — where continuation must prove acceptance. Deep demand / liquidity base: 4408, then 4329 If the market fails to hold higher supports, these are the next magnets for sell-side liquidity. This is a classic: bounce → retest → decide environment. Trading scenarios (Liam style: trade the level) Scenario A: Continuation bounce If price holds above the current base and continues to reclaim levels: Upside rotation can extend toward 5200 → 5400 → 5570–5580 Expect reactions near each resistance band, especially approaching premium. Logic: safe-haven flows + softer USD can fuel continuation, but only if price accepts above the mid-range. Scenario B: Rejection and rotation lower If price fails to hold above 5050–5100 and prints rejection: Expect a pullback back into prior demand Deeper continuation opens toward 4408, then 4329 Logic: corrective rallies often redistribute before the next leg lower, especially around major data. Execution notes With ADP + ISM ahead, avoid chasing candles. Wait for price to tag the zone and show a clear reaction. Trade smaller if spreads widen. My focus: If price accepts above the mid-range, I’ll respect the bounce. If it rejects, I’ll treat the move as a corrective rally and look for rotation lower. Either way, I’m trading levels — not headlines. — Liam
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by LA_Trader_Fx
1
SILVER1! : Volatility Contraction & Mean Reversion Analysis1. Context & Review (Linking the Past) In our previous analysis Silver Futures: Parabolic Breakdown , we correctly identified the "Bearish Liquidation" event that led to a -17% correction. As predicted, the parabolic arc was violated, and price sought liquidity lower. 2. Current Market Structure: The Snap-Back We are witnessing the aftermath. The market stabilized at the ~265k zone and is reacting with a strong +5% bounce. This aligns with standard Mean Reversion mechanics: Oversold Conditions: The selling intensity stretched price too far from the average ("rubber band" effect). Short Covering: Early bears are booking profits, fueling the initial bounce. 3. Technical Roadmap (The "New" Path) The Gap Fill: The rapid drop left a liquidity void (Fair Value Gap) between 290k - 300k. Price naturally gravitates toward this magnet to "repair" inefficient price action. The 0.382 Test: As mentioned in our previous "Dead Cat Bounce" scenario, we are watching the Fibonacci retracement levels. The current move is approaching the 0.382 resistance. 4. Technical Setup (Visible on Chart) The "Orange Box" (Supply Zone): We have highlighted the 290k-300k zone as the "Line in the Sand." Bullish Case: A daily close above 300k suggests this is more than just a dead cat bounce and opens the door to the Golden Pocket (0.618). Bearish Case: Rejection at this Orange Box confirms the "Lower High" thesis, likely inviting a second leg down. 5. Volatility Analysis (TradeX View) Historical data confirms that after a >15% crash, volatility remains elevated for 2-3 weeks. We expect wide trading ranges rather than a straight V-shape recovery. Strategy: Fade the extremes. Buy deep supports, sell the rip into resistance. 6. Conclusion The panic phase is over; the "reconstruction" phase has begun. We are currently neutral-bullish for a tactical bounce to the ~300,000 resistance area, but we remain cautious of the macro trend until that level is reclaimed.
MCX:SILVER1!
by Tradex_guru
Wave B Has Rebounded 15% Bottom Confirmed at 4,400?Wave B Has Rebounded 15% – Final Bottom or a Trap Before Wave C? After a strong rally in yesterday’s Asian session, gold moved into consolidation during the European and US sessions, with a failed breakout late in the US session. In today’s Asian session, price broke above the 4,882–4,960 range, confirming it as a new buy-side base. Gold has rebounded ~15% from the 4,404 area, driven by dip-buying demand and rising US–Iran geopolitical tensions, which remain a key catalyst alongside this week’s economic data. From an Elliott Wave perspective, 4,400 marks the Wave A bottom. The market is now in a Wave B corrective rebound, with potential upside toward 5,140 – 5,200 – 5,220. Once Wave B completes, Wave C may follow, where signs of weakness and distribution will be watched to identify new swing-buy zones after the correction. Support: 4,990–4,950 | 4,880–4,890 | 4,780–4,750 | 4,650–4,624 Resistance: 5,140 | 5,200 | 5,220 Note: Volatility remains elevated. Trade cautiously with strict risk and capital management.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Chum_trades
1
IM LONG IN XAUUSD: HTF 0.5 Fibonacci Magnet in Play (4950–5000)*Gold is holding trendline support and targeting the 0.5 Fibonacci level of the higher timeframe. What I Have Mentioned is the Clear HTF bias, defined by zone, defined reaction zone, which shows both bullish & corrective scenarios ****Strongly it educates, not hypes*** XAUUSD Price ( 4950 – 5000 ) remains the key upside zone if support continues to hold. Market Context: XAUUSD is currently trading around 4810, holding above a rising yellow trendline support. Technical Confluence: • Higher timeframe 0.5 Fibonacci retracement lies between 4950 – 5000 • This zone is marked as a major reaction area (highlighted rectangle) • Trendline support + structure holding adds bullish probability Price Expectation: As long as the price respects the trendline support, gold can continue its move higher towards the 0.5 HTF Fibonacci zone. The green and red projected paths indicate possible market reactions based on support and resistance behavior — not prediction, but preparation. Trading Insight: This is a buy-on-support, sell-into-resistance setup. Strength near 4950–5000 must be watched closely for either continuation or rejection. Let price confirm at HTF levels — patience pays more than prediction.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXPILOTPRO
1
(XAUUSD) – Bearish Continuation From Major Supply Zone (45m) Market Structure Clear trend reversal from the highs → strong impulsive sell-off. The curved marking shows a distribution/top formation, followed by aggressive downside momentum. Overall structure is lower highs & lower lows → bears in control. Key Zones Resistance / Supply Zone (~4,700–4,750) Previous support flipped into resistance. Price has retested this zone multiple times and failed to break above → strong seller presence. Target / Demand Zone (~4,350) Prior demand area and liquidity pool. Logical downside objective if resistance continues to hold. Entry Logic (as drawn) Short entry after rejection inside the resistance zone. Confirmation comes from: Weak bullish candles Long upper wicks Failure to reclaim the zone Price Action Read The small bounces are corrective pullbacks, not reversals. Each push up is being sold → classic bearish continuation / pullback-to-supply setup. Bias & Expectation Bias: Bearish Expectation: Rejection from resistance → continuation toward 4,350 target Invalidation if price accepts and closes above the resistance zone Summary This chart shows a textbook support-to-resistance flip after a strong sell-off. As long as price remains below the highlighted resistance, the path of least resistance is down, targeting the lower demand zone.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDShort
by FXCLASSICAL
1
XAUUSD 15M – Bullish Reversal Setup Explained Above 4700 Level After a strong sell-off, Gold is now reacting near a high-probability demand zone. 🔍 My Analysis & Thinking: • Price has reached the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent major swing • RSI (15 Min) is showing a clear bullish divergence • Selling momentum is weakening after the big fall • Structure suggests a potential higher low formation 📈 Trade Plan (IF–THEN Logic): ✅ IF price breaks above 4700 (yellow resistance zone) ✅ AND gives a clean retest + bullish confirmation ➡️ THEN BUY 🎯 Upside Targets: 4800 , 4900, 5000 zone (major supply & trendline confluence) 🛑 Invalidation: Breakdown below 61.8% (4500 -4550 level ) support with strong momentum ⚠️ This is a patience trade — confirmation > prediction. 📊 KEY LEVELS TO MENTION IN CAPTION Support Zone: 🔹 61.8% Fib – Major demand area Breakout Level: 🟡 4700 (Yellow Rectangle) Targets: 🎯 4800 → 4900 → 5000 Bias: 🔄 Short-term bullish after confirmation XAUUSD 15M – Bullish Reversal Setup Explained Above 4700 Level
FX:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXPILOTPRO
XAUUSD "BULLISH" BIAS IDEA.Symbol + Timeframes: XAUUSD — HTF (Daily) & ITF (H4)** Bias: Bullish (as long as price holds above key support zone) Structure: – Higher lows intact on HTF – Intermediate pullbacks LIQUIDATING "fomoing" retailers. Key Levels: – Support: – 4629.989 And if it breaks , the confluential block at - 4633.96 and marked important swing low at - 4267.383. – Invalidation: daily candle close below 4267.383 Context: – Price reacting to confluence (fair value gap + structural support + confluential block) – Dollar bearish pullback adds supporting context Plan: – Look for corrective pullback to support for continuation setups at smaller timeframe to frame trades, I've marked the path – Targets based on structural levels This is analysis, not trade advice.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Nietzsche_trades
Silver Weekly Outlook: Post-Exhaustion PhaseSilver has entered a high-volatility post-exhaustion phase after a sharp parabolic rise followed by an equally aggressive correction. The weekly chart clearly shows that price moved too far, too fast, and the recent sell-off is a classic example of mean reversion after euphoric buying. Such phases rarely resolve in a straight line and typically evolve into consolidation, base-building, or deeper corrective structures. At current levels, Silver is hovering near an immediate demand zone around the 80–85 region, which now acts as a crucial decision area. This zone represents the first major area where buyers are expected to defend aggressively. The way price behaves here will define the next medium-term trend. Scenario A – Range / Base Formation (High Probability): The most probable outcome at this stage is sideways consolidation. After a vertical fall, markets often need time to absorb supply and rebuild demand. If Silver manages to hold above the immediate demand zone and starts forming higher lows on lower timeframes, it would indicate base formation rather than trend failure. This scenario favors range traders and patient positional participants, as price may oscillate between support and overhead resistance for several weeks or months. Scenario B – Breakdown Continuation (Moderate Probability): If the current support zone fails decisively with strong weekly closes below it, Silver could enter a deeper corrective phase. In such a case, price may gravitate toward the next major demand zone near 73–75, which aligns with prior consolidation and breakout structure. This move would likely be driven by broader risk-off sentiment or macro pressure rather than technical weakness alone. Traders should avoid aggressive longs if this breakdown structure develops. Scenario C – Bullish Reclaim and Bounce (Low Probability, Needs Confirmation): A less likely but still possible outcome is a bullish reclaim, where Silver holds current levels, absorbs selling pressure, and reclaims the 90+ zone with strong weekly confirmation. For this scenario to gain credibility, price must show acceptance above resistance with volume and structure. Until then, any bounce should be treated as reactive and corrective, not a confirmed trend reversal. From a structural perspective, the major resistance remains far above near the 115–120 zone, which was the distribution area before the sharp reversal. This level will act as a long-term supply cap unless Silver builds a strong base over time. In summary, Silver is no longer in a trending phase but in a transition zone. Patience is critical here. Traders should focus less on prediction and more on reaction to price behavior at key demand levels. Let structure, confirmation, and risk management guide decisions, as this phase can easily trap both early bulls and aggressive bears if approached without discipline.
FX:XAGUSD
by TradZoo