XAUUSD – Brian | Volume Profile & TrendlineXAUUSD – Brian | Volume Profile & Trendline: prioritize Sell, wait for a “good deal” in the liquidity zone
1. Market snapshot
On H1, gold is touching the trendline just as yesterday's scenario – this is an area where strong price reactions may occur.
The current structure shows that the price is gradually distributing below the trendline, with no clear signal that buyers have regained control.
In the short term, Brian prioritizes the Sell scenario, utilizing the POC – VAH – FVG areas of the Volume Profile to find entry points.
2. Volume Profile – Key price areas to note
Short-term POC/VAH area around 3,488–3,492 (according to his chart):
This is an area where dense trading occurred, the profile “bulges” out, indicating strong market interest.
When the price returns to this area, a reaction is expected – suitable for entering orders in the current priority direction.
Sell-side liquidity below: If gold cannot hold the POC/VAH area and is pushed down, the liquidity area below will become a reasonable target for the next downward move.
Gold is likely to fluctuate sideways on Friday to close the weekly candle below the trendline, then consider a clearer break at the start of next week.
3. Trading scenario for next week
Scenario 1 – Prioritize Sell at the Volume Profile area
Main mindset: When the price returns to the POC/VAH areas above, prioritize finding short signals instead of chasing buys.
Watch for clear candle reactions (long upper tail, pin bar, engulfing…) at the thick profile area.
Target: Gradually close towards lower liquidity areas (sell-side liquidity) below.
Depending on price behavior, the target can be expanded if selling pressure intensifies at the start of the week.
Scenario 2 – Break trendline & buy the retracement
If gold decisively breaks the downtrend line, closes above, and maintains the new structure:
Then, the strategy will shift to buying the retracement at the trendline itself (now acting as support).
The POC/VAL area below will then become a reasonable “buy zone” to follow the new upward trend.
In summary: before a clear break occurs, Brian still prioritizes selling at high liquidity areas, rather than rushing to catch the bottom.
4. Fundamental context – Large capital still supports gold
Central banks are increasing gold purchases:
In October, global central banks net purchased +53 tons of gold, the highest level since 11/2022.
This figure increased by +194% compared to July, marking the third consecutive month of increased purchasing speed.
This indicates: Short-term selling pressure may appear around the trendline/resistance, but long-term capital flow still favors gold.
Any deep declines later may still attract buying power from large institutions.
5. Risk management suggestions
Maintain the mindset: Sell is the current priority scenario, not the only option – if the structure changes, be ready to switch to buy.
Do not overlook the nearest liquidity/swing low area to place SL – avoid dragging SL too far due to emotions.
