Metals
GOLDIt has been trading within a triangle ever since it activated a Bearish Alt Bat. Above $1735 the triangle breakout suggest $1785 which is the 2nd target of a Bullish Dragon. As per Ichimoku study, the momentum for upside has a decent probability to start tomorrow. It should be noted that triangle breakouts tend to be the last of a trend, this could turn out to be an unwinding one.
GOLDGOLD had a sharp sell off like equities in the 1st week of March due to Central Banks across the globe pumping liquidity and reducing rates. Besides the domino principle of one pulling the other (losses in equities globally being cleared via unwinding of long gold positions) as one asset manages the other in a systematic risk environment.
Current set up suggest $1675 where it would complete its minimum Bullish Dragon (trigger - hourly close above $1630). Only if it sustains above that $1800 is the next level with some resistance near $1735. Else a dip till $1575 before it attempts another up move.
From a medium to long term prospective this could be the last leg of the rally from 2016, post this Gold could start a fresh downside cycle.
Nifty /Gold / USDINR - The Important Juncture Thanks from Bottom of my heart to "Sir John Murphy" for giving us such a wonderful book on Intermarket Analysis - "Profiting from Global Market Relationships"
Special thanks to my friend & follower who wrote - Think beyond Red & Green Colours. I would love to have your comment once again here in this idea as well.
Wish You all a Happy & Colorful Holi
This video idea talks about long term outlook on various asset classes such as
Gold
USDINR
Nifty
& get some clue for these asset classes.
Starting with last stock update - Indusind Bank which was published in Jan 2020 & suggested the fall from 1565 to 1050 - all targets were done & stock touched the channel bottom at 913 lows. Kindly check the idea below
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Indusind Bank - Never miss channel bottoms
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USDINR Ideas
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24th March 2019 Idea - USDINR - The Box Match at 69
10th Jan 2020 Idea - USDINR - The Next Path (Holding 70.35 - Expect 72.25 & 74.50
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Gold Futures
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17th Sep 2018 Idea - Plausible 1350-1375 Zone
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India Nifty
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29th Feb 2020 Idea - Nifty (India -Buy & Hold) - C-Wave or Corona Wave - What Next ?
12th Jan 2020 Idea - Nifty - Stellium Effect - How I cracked the top at 12295
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Thanks for checking the idea. Wishing you all once again a happy holi -
India VIXAlmost every year India VIX tends to test the lower end of its range and reverses sharply in JAN. A trigger for this usually is the Annual Budget (Vix rising as a lead up to the event). It appears that the same scenario might be repeated in 2020. However, this time we have a global trigger as well which could fuel the rise in VIX (as and when it happens) Gold & Silver breakout and USD/INR which is very close to a breakout above 70.40 (in this case it should be noted that US$ is so far fairly muted against major currencies).
We could initially see the Standard Deviation variation between Equity > Commodities / Currency expand. As a result, firstly the range will get broader, secondly price movement/reaction will be faster. Hence, option writing as Jan series gets into momentum might not be a safe hedge as it has appeared in NOV-DEC. Positional traders might get caught on the wrong side time and again as Swing traders are going to love the series
Channel or trend lines, working well for Gold.Gold which was trading at the lower support zone of a long term channel, has closed at nine days high. After this consolidation, it may trade at higher levels in coming days.
Momentum is also looking strong, indicating a upward price moment.
Beyond technical analysis, the fed rate cut and mixed commentary thereafter can be termed as supportive to a price rise only, the revised tensions between US n China, disputes with Iran, tensions in UAE, ECB rate cut, China slowdown etc. are all the factors that may push the prices of yellow metal higher after the recent consolidation.
trend lines on an RSI chart.As the RSI charts are (specially the 21 period one) is far less volatile or noisy than the price movement chart, it is easier to determine its trend using the trend lines. the attached silver RSI chart shows how trend lines can be drawn on RSI and a fair idea of price movement can be drawn.
Understand trend lines with GOLD price moments (Jul - Sep 2019)This chart will help understand the relevance of trend lines and parallel lines in understanding and trading trends of any trade-able instrument.
As per this channel the lower range for Gold is 1485-1490, if it is taken - the gold prices will fall like nine pins.
Let us see how it works in next few days.