Gold near 2800Gold climbs to new ATH at 2,781 as mixed US data bolsters expectations of a Fed rate cut in November.
Last day candle is a good bullish candle and gold price moving higher today in continuation , price is now trading above weekly R1(2767) and testing rising wedge pattern resistance trendline on daily time frame , from here price can test psychological level 2800 or Monthly R2 (2811) and then we can expect some correction or profit booking as per daily TF ,right now there are two possibilities if we watch price action on higher time frame:
First one is that price can make good correction now after testing 2780-2800
Second one is that price can make another broad range( 2750,60 -2780,2800 ) on daily before next move .
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis going to reveal GDP for the third quarter today and core PCE data tomorrow which can add good volatility on Gold price for Intra day.
Metals
Gold near to ATHAfter gap down opening Gold price again trading near to ATH and price now sustaining on PWH on H1.
For sell we have to wait for rejection on ATH area (2755-59: for scalping only right now with tight SL on Intraday No confirmation, No sell) and for next move in higher side price need to breakout and need to sustain above this area and then we can look for buy in higher side towards weekly R1 and then R2.
For a safe sell I think better wait for price to close below 2738 (As wee have High volume support at 2738-40,H1 or H4) and in Higher side there is no major confirmation right now.
Silver’s breaking out of a multi-year consolidation?Silver’s breaking out of a multi-year consolidation? Sure, the charts are giving you that breakout signal—a classic rounding bottom pattern. It’s a textbook setup. But I’m telling you right now, don’t get pulled into the hype.
Silver isn’t your safe haven; that’s Gold’s job. When the world’s a mess, people don’t run to Silver. They run to Gold. Silver thrives when the global economy is expanding, when there’s industrial demand driving it. But let me remind you where we are: recession fears, global instability, geopolitical tensions. None of that screams “strong economy” to me.
You’re not betting on Silver breaking out of a chart pattern—you’re betting on a world that’s heading into turbulence. And the world today isn’t sending the message that industrial demand for Silver is going to boom anytime soon. So, unless you think we’re suddenly going to shake off all this uncertainty, you’re just gambling on hope.
Right now? The market doesn’t justify Silver. Gold is your shield when the storm hits. Silver? Not so much.
Gold portrays much-awaited pullback, focus on $2,710 & US dataEarly Friday, gold prices slipped after a brief bounce from a week-long support level, retreating from a point that has shifted from support to resistance. Traders are closely watching the September U.S. Durable Goods Orders. This movement highlights gold's defense against a mid-week rejection of a bullish trend, signaling the anticipated price pullback.
Sellers flex muscles
Gold is struggling to regain momentum, facing rejection from recent highs. With bearish signals from the MACD and an RSI close to 50, further declines in gold prices seem likely. However, strong support levels may challenge sellers' quest for lower prices.
Key technical levels to watch
In the past week, gold has seen multiple peaks and troughs, with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) highlighting $2,715-$2,710 as a crucial support zone for sellers. Below that, the 38.2% Fibonacci Extension of gold's movements from September to October and the previous monthly high near $2,686 could attract bearish interest. Importantly, the upward-sloping trend line from early August and the 200-day SMA, around $2,657 and $2,638, respectively, will serve as final defenses for buyers before control shifts to sellers.
On the upside, gold buyers are looking for confirmation from the lower boundary of the bullish channel, around $2,753. A successful breakout could lead to a rise towards the recent peak of $2,758 and potentially up to the channel’s upper line near $2,790. The 78.6% Fibonacci Extension at $2,772 and the $2,800 mark are additional upside filters to watch for the XAUUSD bulls.
Bulls run out of steam
Despite several strong support levels, the anticipated strength of the US dollar after upcoming economic data and recent technical consolidations indicate a potential short-term decline in gold prices. However, the overall bullish trend remains intact unless prices fall below $2,638.
Gold is in correction Gold price facing resistance at Fibonacci golden zone (2733-39: marked with red zone) and now moving towards the support area (green zone : at Wednesday low), under PDH and under resistance trendline sell is good towards the support area where price seems to be completing H&S formation and the neckline is at 2708-10 area, if price breakdown from H&S formation a good correction is expected.
On buying side we have to wait for breakout at PDH and breakout on the resistance trendline (Why Buying? because buying is still good if we go through the footprint chart ,if we watch last two days delta , the delta is negative but not strong enough to justify any deep correction as of now).
Silver DivergenceDivergence and Gold/Silver Ratio
Gold and silver are thought to move together, and often they do. There are periods where the Gold Trust (GLD) and Silver Trust (SLV) move in opposite directions and periods where one metal outperforms the other.
Gold is currently outperforming silver. Such discrepancies occur and are monitored by the gold/silver ratio. The gold/silver ratio shows how many ounces of silver it takes to buy an ounce of gold. Since 1975, the average is near 60; right now it stands near 80 ($1,187 divided by $14.99).
While gold outperformance, or silver's underperformance relative to gold, was very noticeable in early 2016, this has actually been going on for a long time. The outperformance has become even more pronounced since 2016. To start 2016, gold traded at $1,069 and silver at $13.80 -- the gold/silver ratio of 77.5. As of Oct. 2018, it's at 80. Gold prices have risen relative to silver prices quite steadily for years. This is mainly due to silver price weakness since peaking near $50 in 2011 (when silver outperformed gold).
Gold : Finally taking a breakAs discussed in yesterday's gold update that gold was due for a correction , accordingly we have seen a good correction in yesterday's trading session. Last day price close with a bearish Engulfing candle from a key level (Weekly R1) and now the major support as per volume (2738-40) is going to act as resistance area, also if we draw Fibonacci levels for last day candle we have now to major resistance in higher side for gold, one is at 2733 and another is 2739, so for intraday under these levels we can look for sell opportunities and we can look 2700 or low as our target .CPR is also descending today , any breach from PDL can result in continuation into lower side.
Gold Intraday PlanGold prices extended gains in yesterday trading session for the fifth day out of the last six and reached an all-time high at 2,748, just below of the psychological 2,750 mark. Geopolitical tensions and expectations that the Federal Reserve would continue to lower borrowing costs are helping gold bulls right now.
As per price action gold price Invalidated the Gravestone doji pattern that was formed in Monday trading session and sustaining the price over to major support area 2738-40 (As visible on Volume profile).Today price opened with small gap down which is indication that the current over extended bull run is somewhat exhausting and need a break/ pause ,so selling with calculated risk is seems to be favourable at current elevated levels and if price breakdown this support area on volume profile then we can expect a good correction towards 2700 or low.
Silver is going to continue the rally Up as Historic Trend showsChart Understanding:
-- XAUUSD is price of 1 ounce of Gold in USD. Also known as Spot gold price chart.
-- XAGUSD is price of 1 ounce of Silver in USD. Also known as Spot Silver price chart
Spot Gold to Spot Silver price ratio of last 20 years shows how silver will trend in the near future.
-- When graph goes down, Silver rises.
Analysis
-- Last time when silver was at an all time high $34 USD/ounce, the ratio was at 46:1.
-- The ratio fell below the lower band and thus silver prices fell as mean reversion came to effect.
-- This time, when silver is at $34 USD/ounce, the ratio is at 79:1.
-- If mean reversion will happen this time, then it means silver still has a lot of price hike to catch to attain that.
-- If ratio of 66 is to be attained, keeping gold price constant, the silver price needs to increase to $41.5 USD/ounce, which is an increase of roughly 23% from current price.
As such, silver seems to be a better bet in the current uncertain times to give good returns compared to gold. The historical valuation of both precious metals show that silver has long been lost in the valuation race and has lot to catch.
"A historical analysis by the World Gold Council shows that despite gold’s current higher market value, silver’s intrinsic value is higher due to its relative rarity — five times less abundant than gold (World Gold Council, 2023). As historical and intrinsic value factors realign, silver’s price could adjust to reflect its true worth, potentially exceeding gold’s value in the (distant) future."
Gold : Due for correctionGold prices hit another record high during US session, yet it paused its advance amid elevated US Treasury bond yields and a strong US Dollar (But gold ignored the DXY move completely in last week).
On daily close as per price action we can see a gravestone doji which can open door for correction. So for today the plan is to sell under last day high , we can sell near CPR area(2722-2727) or wait for pullback to daily R1(2735) for possible sell opportunities, On lower side as you can see that price is currently in over elevated region and price did not tested the weekly pivot(2694) , so first we can expect a test at weekly pivot for this correction and then we have to watch how price going to react there .
GOLD | XAUUSD Chart PatternGold has been in a good uptrend in every new session it makes new all time high so at this point i think we should wait for pullback and then enter to gain profit , 2716-2713 is the good support zone if price is rejected at this zone then we should go long , wait for candlestick pattern for better entry.
SILVER Breakout Confirmed........Silver broke weekly resistance and weekly close confirmed it.
Next target is 35$ and 37$. It may pullback from there before reaching 48-50$.
Trade as per risk management.
NOTE : ALreay silver view was given before at 27-28$ with target of 32$. This is an update actually. You can find previous chart idea below in link
Gold renews all-time high within bullish channel, $2,750 eyedGold prices soared to a record $2,710, marking four days of gains as investors flock to safety. Despite a stronger US dollar, gold has remained within a rising trend channel for the past three months.
Caution Ahead
While the bulls celebrate breaking through a three-week-old resistance level, the momentum indicators suggest a potential pullback. With the RSI nearing overbought territory, we might see a brief dip before another surge in prices.
Key technical levels to watch
Gold’s next challenges lie at the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci Extension (FE) of the bullion’s September-October moves, respectively near $2,711 and $2,736, especially amid nearly overbought RSI conditions. In a case where the precious metal remains firmer past the $2,736 hurdle, the aforementioned bullish channel’s top line surrounding $2,750 will be a tough nut to crack for the buyers. A breakthrough there could spark a rally towards the psychological $3,000 mark, with potential resistance around $2,800 and $2,900.
On the contrary, Gold’s price has solid support at the $2,700 level and the 38.2% Fibonacci Extension around $2,686. If it falls below these, watch for a key support zone near $2,665, where the late September resistance and the 10-day EMA converge. Should XAUUSD bears keep the reins past $2,665, the channel’s bottom line of near $2,630 will be the last defense of the buyers.
Buyers are likely to stay in control despite a potential pullback
While a short-term pullback in gold prices appears overdue, the overall bullish trend is expected to hold strong due to global economic and geopolitical uncertainties.
Gold above 2700Gold breakout psychological level of 2700 and now trading above this level after Chinese data ;as per my view buying at these elevated levels is risky (Same goes with sell also : sell is also risky but with proper MM sell seems to be more favorable as per volume distribution ) : So my plan is to sell at every Intra day resistance as per Pivots (R1:2702,R2:2711,R3:2725 and weekly R3: 2734).
Gold again reached at All time High : What next?As expected and as shared on daily updates ,we have seen a good bullish rally on gold again and gold re-tested the ATH level and now facing resistance on Intraday but there is no big indication of good rejection at ATH level: CPR is very extreme today and gold price still showing strength. Today we have some high impact data in US session that can generate good volatility
For today:
For Buy:
We will wait for breakout above 2685 and on breakout we can look for buy on Intraday towards 2700,
For Sell; Price need to see a good decline first /close on H4 and bears at least need to push the price under 2660 (Daily S1 for today) and then only we can look for sell opportunities on Intraday.
Gold Seems BullishGold is currently in consolidation range which seems to be 2668.00 to 2677.100 if it breaks the level of 2677.100 then we can see the levels of 2685 which was the last high and if it hovers there then it will break the resistance level , if price comes to support zone of 2668 to 2666 then we have to wait for the price action confirmation.
Is VEDL Ready to Soar? Elliott Wave Analysis Suggests YesTechnical Analysis of VEDANTA LTD. (VEDL) Based on Elliott Waves
This analysis is based on Elliott Wave theory and is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice.
Elliott Wave Analysis:
The provided chart of VEDANTA LTD. (VEDL) suggests a bullish trend based on Elliott Wave principles. The analysis identifies a potential impulse wave structure, which typically consists of five waves.
Elliott Wave Analysis Update
We're currently within Wave (3) in blue intermediate degree, with subdivisions marked as Red 1 to 5 Minor degree, Having completed Red 1 to 3, we're nearing the end of Red 4.
Key Takeaways:
1. Post-Red 4 completion, we expect an upward move to complete Red 5, targeting 1.618 Fibonacci extension (measured from Blue Wave (1).
2. Wave 5 (Red) is the final leg of Wave (3) in Blue which is of intermediate degree.
3. Overall, the outlook remains bullish.
Important Principle:
As per Elliott Wave Theory, Wave 4 cannot overlap Wave 1. This means Red 4 cannot enter the territory of Red Wave 1.
Nearest or current Invalidation Level:
If the price enters 471 (Wave 1 high), our labelled view will be negated, and we'll need to reassess the chart.
Expected Outcome:
If the invalidation level holds, our view remains intact, targeting 537 or nearby.
Actionable Insights:
- Monitor Red 4 completion
- Watch for Wave 5 unfolding
- Keep 471 as the critical invalidation level
Right Direction:
The annotation "Right Direction ↑" suggests that the overall trend is expected to be upward.
Invalidation Level:
The level of 424 is identified as an invalidation level. A break below this level would negate the bullish outlook and suggest a potential reversal.
Target:
While a specific target is not provided in the chart, a potential target for wave 3 could be around the 1.618 extension level (537.55) based on the length of wave 1. However, this is a rough estimate and subject to change based on market conditions.
Overall Outlook:
Based on the Elliott Wave analysis, VEDANTA LTD. (VEDL) appears to be in a bullish uptrend. The market is expected to continue rising, with a potential target around the 537.55 level. However, it's crucial to monitor the price action closely and be prepared to adjust the analysis if the market's behavior deviates from the expected pattern.
Remember: Elliott Wave analysis is a complex tool that requires practice and experience. It's essential to approach it with caution and always consider the potential risks involved in trading.
I am not Sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else.
However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business.
If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...!
Hope this post is helpful to community
Thanks
RK
Disclaimer and Risk Warning.
The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com/u/RK_Charts/ is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
Graphite India for 100%+ upsideDate: 21 Sep’24
Timeframe: Weekly chart
Graphite India currently seems to be in Wave III of 3 which is heading towards 1400 levels (130% growth from current price) as seen in the chart. Even if it attains its previous all time high of August 2018, that’s almost double its current price. If one can handle the fluctuations that operators inject from time to time and hold tight, this one is a no brainer.
This is not a trade recommendation. Please do your own analysis.
All eyes on GoldAs discussed in yesterday's update gold is still looking good to more higher and gold is following that statement perfectly , as you can see on hourly chart after a small pullback in yesterday trading session gold price took support at weekly pivot (2640) and after that price moving in higher side, for today also the CPR relation is positive and gold price is taking support on CPR area and we can expect continuation in higher side , weekly R1 is at 2677 and at that level we can expect another small pullback and then price can continue in higher side towards 2685 or higher level, there is no sign of good reversal so we have to wait for higher levels for any selling opportunities , the only limiting factor that currently stopping the gold bulls is strong dollar Index chart, but I think DXY is also due for correction which can help gold bulls to make a good move in higher side : overall the scenario is still favourable for buying on Intraday .