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AUDUSD eyes corrective bounce as RBA week beginsAUDUSD marked negative closings in the last two consecutive weeks ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy decision. That said, the previous weekly fall could be linked to a downside break of a seven-week-old ascending support line. However, the Aussie pair recently confirmed a short-term falling wedge bullish chart formation. The same joins the gradually ascending RSI line to suggest further consolidation of the latest losses. However, the quote needs to stay beyond the 0.6630 hurdle. Even so, an upward-sloping support-turned-resistance line from early March and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s March-April upside, close to 0.6660, can challenge the pair buyers. Following that, the 200-SMA level of 0.6685 acts as the last defense of the bears. On the contrary, a seven-week-old horizontal support zone near 0.6575-70 appears a tough nut to crack for the AUDUSD bears to retake control. In that case, the yearly low marked in March around 0.6560 may act as an extra challenge for the sellers before retaking the driver’s seat. Following that, the Aussie pair will be all set for the previous yearly low surrounding 0.6165. Though, the round figures may offer intermediate halts during the anticipated downturn. Overall, AUDUSD bears are likely to take a breather but won’t leave the table unless RBA offers a positive surprise and Fed disappoints, both of which are hardly expected.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY rebound appears unimpressive below 133.80USDJPY reverses the early-month losses by keeping the bounce off a nine-week-old ascending support line. That said, the RSI and MACD oscillators also suggest the gradual building of upside momentum. However, a downward sloping resistance line from early March, around 132.65-70, followed by the 200-SMA level of 133.80, appears short-term key hurdles to challenge the Yen pair buyers before giving them control. Following that, an area comprising multiple levels marked in March, around 135.10-25, could test the north run before signaling the run-up towards the yearly high marked the previous month around 137.90. On the contrary, USDJPY pullback remains elusive until the quote stays beyond a two-month-old ascending support line, close to 130.90 at the latest. Also acting as short-term key support is the 130.00 round figure. It’s worth noting, however, that the Yen pair sellers need validation from the 129.80-60 region before taking control. In that case, the pair can easily challenge the yearly low marked in February at around 128.00. Overall, USDJPY lures buyers but the upside momentum remains elusive below 133.80.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold buyers run out of fuel ahead of US NFPBe it the Doji candlestick just beneath the 10-week-old ascending resistance line or the overbought RSI (14), Gold Price flashes clear signs of bullish exhaustion. The bears, however, need validation from the monthly support line, close to $1,981, as well as the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). Also acting as the downside filter is February’s high of around $1,960 and the late March swing low of around $1,938. Following that, the metal’s south run towards the 100-DMA and the 200-DMA, respectively near $1,861 and $1,787, can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, Gold price recovery needs a successful break of the aforementioned multi-day-old resistance line, close to $2,035. In a case where the bullion manages to cross the $2,035 hurdle and gains support from downbeat US employment numbers, its run-up towards the previous yearly high surrounding $2,070 can’t be ruled out. Should the quote remains strong past $2,070, the record high marked in 2020 around $2,075 appears the last defense of the bears. Overall, Gold losses bullish momentum ahead of the key event, suggesting a notable pullback in prices should the scheduled US employment numbers trigger the US Dollar run-up.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD eases on the way to refresh 2023 highEURUSD extends the previous day’s pullback from a seven-week-old ascending resistance line as it pares the weekly gains, the third consecutive one. While the overbought RSI joined the stated resistance line to recall sellers, bullish MACD signals and a two-week-old ascending trend line, around 1.0820, challenge the Euro bears. Following that, the 100-SMA and 200-SMA, respectively around 1.0785 and 1.0700 could lure the pair sellers. On the contrary, the aforementioned resistance line near 1.0980 acts as an immediate upside hurdle before directing EURUSD buyers toward the current Year-To-Date high, near 1.1035. In a case where the Euro bulls keep the reins past 1.1035, the January 2022 bottom surrounding 1.1120 will be in focus. During the quote’s advances past 1.1120, tops marked during the late March of the last year can probe the buyers near 1.1185 and 1.1235. Overall, EURUSD is well-set for a fresh yearly top even if the bulls are hesitant of late.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY attracts bullish bias till it stays above 131.00USDJPY marked the first weekly gain in five while luring bulls to cross the 100-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The upward trajectory could also be witnessed by a one-week-long ascending trend channel, as well as a successful break of a downward-sloping trend line from early March. The RSI retreat, however, challenges the Yen pair buyers of late. That said, the 100-EMA and the stated channel’s lower line, respectively around 132.60 and 132.10, restrict the quote’s short-term downside. It should be noted that a three-week-long previous resistance line, around 131.00 by the press time, appears the last defense of the bulls. On the other hand, the stated channel’s top line, close to 133.90, caps the immediate upside of the USDJPY pair. Following that, the mid-March high of 135.10 and the late February swing low surrounding 135.25-30 can check the pair buyers. In a case where the Yen pair buyers hold the reins past 135.30, the odds of witnessing a fresh Year-To-Date (YTD) high, currently around 137.90, can’t be ruled out. Overall, USDJPY is back on the buyer’s radar after a four-week absence. The bulls, however, have a bumpy road towards the north.
by MTradingGlobal
200-EMA defends Gold buyers on US NFP dayGold stays on the bear’s radar as it reverses the previous weekly gains, the first in five, ahead of the all-important US employment report for February. It’s worth noting, however, that the 200-EMA level surrounding $1,805 puts a floor under the metal price, a break of which could set the ball rolling towards the 50% Fibonacci retracement of November 2022 to February 2023 upside, also comprising the mid-November peak surrounding $1,787. In a case where the quote remains weak past $1,787, late November’s bottom near $1,731 appears the last defense for the bulls. On the flip side, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level close to $1,830 holds the key to Gold’s buyer’s entry. However, a broad nine-week-old horizontal area between $1,857 and $1,865 seems a tough nut to crack for the metal bulls. Should the bullion manages to remain firmer past $1,865, a run-up toward the $1,900 threshold becomes smooth. Following that, the multi-month high marked in February at around $1,960 could gain the buyer's attention. Overall, the Gold price is likely to remain weak amid hawkish Fed expectations and downbeat MACD signals. However, the RSI line teases with the oversold territory and hence the quote’s further downside is likely having a little room towards the south.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
GBPUSD eyes further downside ahead of crucial US/UK data GBPUSD holds a confirmed place in the bear’s radar after breaking an important support line from mid-November, as well as the 200-DMA, as traders await the UK data dump and the US jobs report. That said, a daily closing below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the Cable pair’s upside from November 2022 to January 2023, near 1.1795, becomes necessary to witness the quote’s further declines amid the nearly oversold RSI and downbeat MACD signals. In that case, the late October 2022 swing high and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, around 1.1645-40, may lure the pair sellers. Should the quote remains bearish past 1.1640, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.1422 and the November 09 bottom of around 1.1330 might act as intermediate halts before directing it to the late 2022 low of 1.1144. On the contrary, GBPUSD recovery may initially aim for the 200-DMA level of around 1.1910 ahead of challenging the 1.1950 support-turned-resistance comprising the previous support line from November 17 and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Following that, the 1.2000 psychological magnet and a downward-sloping resistance line from late January, near 1.2090, will be in focus. It’s worth observing that the Cable pair’s successful trading beyond 1.2090, as well as crossing the 1.2100 threshold, could help the bulls to retake control. Overall, GBPUSD is likely to decline further unless crossing the 1.2100 hurdle.
by MTradingGlobal
USDJPY eases from key hurdle to the north ahead of BoJ, NFPUSDJPY marked the first weekly loss in three as the key Bank of Japan (BoJ) Monetary Policy Meeting and the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) looms. The Yen pair’s latest retreat could be cited as a failure to cross the 200 and 100-DMA. Adding strength to the pullback move could be the overbought RSI (14). However, the bullish MACD signals and a three-day-old ascending support line, around 134.15 by the press time, challenge the quote’s immediate downside. Following that, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s May-October 2022 run-up, near 131.75, could lure the bears before directing them to the 130.00 psychological magnet and the last January’s low, close to 127.20. Meanwhile, the 100-DMA and the 200-DMA guard the USDJPY pair’s immediate recovery moves near 136.80 and 137.30 respectively. It’s worth noting that the risk-barometer pair’s successful run-up beyond 137.30 isn’t an open invitation to the bulls as the 50% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels could challenge the further advances around 139.15 and 142.20 in that order. Overall, USDJPY bulls are running out of steam ahead of BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s last monetary policy show, as well as the key US jobs report for February.
by MTradingGlobal
USDCAD is likely to decline further as 2023 beginsUSDCAD holds onto the late December downside break of the seven-week-old ascending support line, even if the 200-SMA challenges the bears. That said, the downbeat MACD and RSI conditions also favor the Loonie pair sellers as they attack the key SMA surrounding 1.3520. Additionally challenging the bears is the double bottoms marked around 1.3485-80 during the last week, a break of which could quickly drag prices towards the previous monthly low of around 1.3380. In a case where the quote remains bearish past 1.3380, November’s low of 1.3225 will gain the market’s attention. On the contrary, recovery moves need to cross the previous support line from early November, close to 1.3645-50 by the press time, to convince buyers. Even so, the double tops marked the last month at around 1.3700 will be a crucial challenge for the USDCAD optimists. It's worth noting that the pair’s run-up beyond 1.3700 won’t hesitate to challenge the yearly high marked in October around 1.3980. However, November’s peak near 1.3810 could act as a buffer during the anticipated run-up. Overall, USDCAD is likely to remain weak but the 200-SMA can challenge short-term sellers amid the holiday mood.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold seesaws near key hurdles to the northGold prices brace for the biggest weekly jump in three as it stays around the highest levels since mid-August. However, the metal still has some strong resistance ahead before offering a free ride to the bulls. Among them, a 5.5-month-old horizontal resistance area surrounding $1,805 gain major attention as RSI (14) approaches the overbought territory. Should the bullion prices remain firmer past $1,805, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of June-September downside near $1,821 can act as a validation point for the rally targeting the mid-June swing high near $1,859 and then to the June’s peak of $1,879. Meanwhile, pullback moves remain invalid unless the gold price remains beyond the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level surrounding $1,778. Following that, Monday’s high near $1,763 and 50% Fibonacci retracement level near $1,747 may test the bears ahead of highlighting the 15-week-old horizontal support zone near $1,728. It’s worth noting that the quote’s daily closing below $1,728 could invalidate the recovery hopes and recall the sellers targeting $1,700, as well as July’s trough near $1,680. Overall, gold is likely to witness further upside as it crossed November’s peak but further upside has limited room.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
USDCAD buyers have a long road ahead as the key week beginsUSDCAD crossed a one-week-old resistance the previous day but stayed on the way to the first monthly loss in three inside a fortnight-long bearish channel. That said, the 100-SMA level surrounding 1.3725 acts as an immediate hurdle to test the pair buyers before directing them to the stated channel’s upper line, close to 1.3745 at the latest. Following that, there are multiple levels near 1.3840-50 which could challenge the upside move targeting a fresh yearly top, currently around 1.3980. It’s worth noting that the 1.4000 psychological magnet may offer an extra buffer to the north before giving control to the bulls. Alternatively, the resistance-turned-support near 1.3555 and a monthly horizontal support zone surrounding 1.3500-3495 could restrict the short-term downside of the USDCAD pair. Following that, the aforementioned channel’s lower line, around 1.3460, might act as the last defense for the buyers. It should be observed that September 22 swing low near 1.3410 and the 1.3400 round figure might check the bears ahead of directing them to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the September-October advances, at 1.3343. Overall, USDCAD consolidates monthly loss as traders brace for the key week including the Fed’s verdict, US NFP and Canadian employment numbers.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold sellers need validation from $1,685 and US NFPGold retreats towards $1,710 while fading the upside break of a seven-month-old resistance. In doing so, the yellow metal stays inside the bearish trend channel connecting levels marked since late April. That said, the latest pullback remains elusive until the quote remains beyond the aforementioned previous resistance line, around $1,685 at the latest. Following that, July’s low near $1,680 and the $1,650 level may probe the bears before directing them to the yearly bottom surrounding $1,615. It should be noted, however, that the bullion’s weakness past $1,615 will be by challenged the stated channel’s lower line, close to $1,608, quickly followed by the $1,600 round figure. Meanwhile, an upside clearance of the stated channel’s top-line, close to $1,742, could quickly propel the gold prices toward the $1,800 threshold. However, August month’s peak near $1,807 and the 200-DMA near $1,822 appear tough nuts to crack for the metal buyers afterward. In a case where the bullion remains firmer past $1,822, June’s peak of $1,878 and March’s trough close to $1,890 could lure the bulls. Overall, gold prices are likely to pare the recent gains considering the upbeat expectations from the US employment numbers. However, a clear downside break of $1,685 and the market’s reaction to the actual data should be watched carefully before jumping on the bear’s boat.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
Top 3 TradingView indicators for trading the NFPNFP or Non Farm Payrolls is one of the most important economic reports that forex, commodity, and stock traders follow because it can act as an indicator for health of the US economy. The NFP reports on the number of jobs added to the US economy in the previous month excluding those employed by farms, the federal government, non-profit organizations and private households. The NFP report is released on the first Friday of each month and can be responsible for some of the biggest movements in Forex and other assets. Trading the NFP before it even happens can be risky because of the high volatility and possible widening spreads. It can be safer to wait 15 to 30 minutes after the release of the NFP report and pair your technical analysis with the following 3 indicators. Top 3 indicators for trading the NFP: Auto Fibonacci Levels + Auto Trend Line Generator Retracements after the release of the NFP are not an uncommon occurrence as predicting the value of the NFP is frequently far off the mark. As the market digests the unpredictable NFP results it can set out to correct its wrong assumption. Trading the NFP during retracements could be tiring, especially if you are doing a lot of Fibonacci calculations. The Auto Fibonacci Levels + Auto Trend Line Generator Indicator helps you with this, by showing you the most important Fibonacci retracements points directly on your graph. Sessions & Days Of The Week Sometimes it is best to keep it simple. The Sessions & Days Of The Week Indicator is discreet but is an important indicator that will show you the day of the week and the start and end of each day. This gives you a wholistic view of the markets from a global perspective which can help you understand how behave in the days and hours leading up to, during, and after the NFP. The indicator is applicable over all time frames so keeping track of different times zone and session changes over is a cinch. Volatility Quality Index w/ Pips Filtering One of the oldest indicators that has been used by traders for years is VQ or Volatility Quality Indicators. This indicator can be vital for determining a bad (unsustainable) and good (sustainable) volatility caused by an NFP release and great when you need an additional confirmation before entering a trade.
by BlackBull Markets
EURUSD rebound is at test near 0.9830 resistanceEURUSD defends the first weekly gain in three around the 20-year low during early Monday. The recovery also gains support from the RSI and the MACD. However, an downward sloping resistance line from September 12, around 0.9830 by the press time, challenges the immediate upside moves. In a case where the quote rises past 0.9830, the 200-SMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s August-September downturn, respectively near 0.9950 and 1.0050, could challenge the bulls. It’s worth noting that a two-month-old downward sloping trend line around 1.0090, quickly followed by the 1.0100 threshold, appears the defense of the pair sellers. Alternatively, the 50-SMA and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, close to 0.9740 and 0.9730 in that order, could test the EURUSD pair’s pullback. Following that, the 0.9640 and the 0.9580 levels might poke the bears before giving them control. In that case, the latest trough surrounding 0.9540 should act as a buffer before highlighting the September 2001 peak near 0.9330. Overall, the EURUSD rebound is likely to extend for a while as traders await the key data from the US. However, the bearish trend isn’t challenged yet.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold eyes fresh yearly low, $1,660 in focusGold flirts with the $1,700 threshold as it approaches the yearly bottom ahead of the key US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. The yellow metal’s latest fall justifies bearish MACD signals. However, the RSI nears the oversold territory, which in turn suggests limited downside room. Hence, even if the quote breaks the yearly low of $1,680, the further declines could be smaller. This highlights the 61.8% Fibonacci Extension (FE) level from late April to early August, near $1,660. Even if the quote drops below the $1,660 support, a late March 2020 peak near $1,644 could act as an additional downside filter before dragging the bullion towards the $1,600 threshold. Alternatively, multiple swings of July portray the $1,700 as an immediate resistance ahead of the monthly downward sloping trend line, previous support near $1,710. Following that, the late August swing low near $1,727 and the 20-DMA surrounding $1,760 could gain the market’s attention. It’s worth noting that a daily closing beyond $1,760 will enable the bulls to aim for the previous monthly peak of $1,808. Overall, gold bears are likely to keep reins but the downside room is limited, which in turn suggests the brighter scope of recoveries in case the data disappoints.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD portrays bearish set-up ahead of US NFPBe it an ascending triangle or a pullback from 200-SMA, EURUSD bears flex muscles as markets await the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for July. That said, the bearish triangle confirmation looms on the clear downside break of 1.0160, which in turn could direct the pair towards the yearly low near 0.9950. However, the 1.0090 and the 1.0000 parity level could offer intermediate halts during the fall. In a case where the pair sellers dominate below the 0.9950 trough level, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of late June-July moves, near 0.9870 might join the likely oversold RSI conditions to hinder further downside. On the contrary, the 200-SMA and upper line of the monthly triangle offer a tough nut to crack for EURUSD buyers at around 1.0280. Following that, a run-up towards a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since mid-June, near 1.0358-65, could challenge the upside momentum. It’s worth noting, however, that the pair’s successful rise beyond 1.0365 could enable the bulls to aim for June’s high of 1.0588. Overall, EURUSD stays inside a bearish set-up with an absence of oversold RSI and bearish MACD signals amplifying the odds of the quote’s downside. However, it all depends upon how well the US employment data for July arrives. A negative surprise won’t hesitate to pamper bulls.
by MTradingGlobal
AUDUSD bulls flex muscles with eyes on RBABe it a weekly ascending trend channel of the bull cross, AUDUSD flashes upside signals ahead of the key monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). That said, the bulls may retreat from the upper line of the stated channel, around 0.7040 by the press time. Even if the quote rises past 0.7040, the mid-June swing high near 0.7070 could challenge the additional run-up. It’s worth noting, however, that the pair’s run-up beyond 0.7070 enables it to challenge June’s peak of 0.7282, with the 0.7100 and the 0.7200 round figures likely to offer intermediate halts during the expected rise. Meanwhile, the 50-SMA and the channel’s support line together restrict the short-term AUDUSD downside to around 0.6930. following that, the 200-SMA, close to 0.6880, could challenge the pair bears. In a case where the prices remain weak past 0.6880, the 0.6760 and 0.6710 may act as the last defenses for the buyers, breaking which the south-run towards the yearly low of 0.6751 can’t be ruled out. Overall, AUDUSD is on the bull’s radar ahead of the key RBA. However, further upside may witness a pullback before challenging June’s peak.
by MTradingGlobal
Gold retains bearish bias ahead of US NFPGold remains inside a four-month-old descending trend channel despite a recent corrective bounce off the yearly low, mainly due to the oversold RSI. The recovery moves, however, failed to cross the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the metal’s upward trajectory from August 2021 to March 2022, near $1,755. In addition to the $1,755 hurdle, a horizontal area comprising lows marked since mid-May also restricts the quote’s short-term advances near $1,786. In a case where the bullion prices rally beyond $1,786, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the stated channel’s upper line, respectively around $1,820 and $1,828, will lure the bulls. It’s worth noting that the upside momentum past $1,828 will need validation from the 200-DMA level surrounding $1,846 to welcome the buyers. On the contrary, an 11-month-long horizontal support zone near $1,721-17, restricts the precious metal’s immediate downside. Following that, the aforementioned channel’s lower line, around $1,681, could act as the last defense of gold buyers before directing the quote towards the previous yearly low of $1,667. Overall, gold prices may extend the latest rebound if today’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), or any of the June US jobs report data, disappoints the US dollar buyers. However, the bears can keep reins until the quote rallies past $1,846.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
Gold wavers around the last defense for bears ahead of US NFPGold prices seesaw around the monthly top after crossing a five-week-old resistance line, as well as a weekly hurdle. The recently bullish MACD signals and firmer RSI also favor the buyers as they attack the 200-SMA level surrounding $1,872, the last defense for bears. Should the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) manage to propel the quote beyond $1,872, an upward trajectory towards the $1,900 threshold can’t be ruled out. Following that, the late April swing high and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the April-May downturn, near $1,920, should gain the market’s attention. On the contrary, strong NFP prints could weigh on the gold prices and drag it back below the resistance-turned-support around $1,853. In that case, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and the latest swing low, respectively near $1,835 and $1,828, could lure the gold bears. It’s worth noting that the precious metal’s downside past $1,828 won’t hesitate to break the $1,800 threshold before targeting May’s bottom of $1,786. Overall, gold prices are likely to rise further as global markets await the US employment data for May.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MTradingGlobal
EURUSD teases bears ahead of US ADP Employment dataEURUSD fades three-week-old recovery as it remains below a downward sloping trend line from early February, around 1.0745 by the press time. Also keeping sellers hopeful is the RSI retreat and a downside break of the 1.0690 support-turned-resistance confluence, comprising an ascending support line from May 13 and 10-DMA. That said, the bears seem approaching 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) of the February-May downturn, around 1.0620, becomes imminent. In a case where the pair remains pressured below 1.0620, monthly horizontal support close to 1.0470-60 appears the last defense of sellers. On the contrary, a successful break of the multi-day-old resistance line, near 1.0745, becomes necessary to recall buyers. Even so, a validation from the 38.2% Fibo. level surrounding 1.0785, as well as March’s low of 1.0805, becomes necessary to convince EURUSD bulls. However, the pair’s run-up beyond 1.0805 won’t hesitate to challenge the late April swing high around 1.0935. Overall, EURUSD bulls seem running out of steam but the bears need clear signals and are challenged by the US data’s presence as well.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
Gold buyers remain hopeful to regain $1,900 on NFP dayDespite reversing the post-Fed rally, gold prices remain beyond a three-day-old ascending support line, around $1,870 by the press time, ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release on Friday. In addition to the capacity to stay beyond immediate support, firmer RSI and bullish MACD signals also keep buyers hopeful as markets brace for the key data. That said, late April’s swing high around $1,920 acts as an immediate hurdle for the metal to knock before targeting the $1,930 crucial resistance, comprising 200-SMA and upward sloping trend line from April 26. Should the scheduled data allow the quote to cross $1,930, backed by an absence of overbought RSI conditions, $1,960 could return to the charts. On the contrary, pullback moves remain less important until gold remains above $1,870. Following that, the weekly low surrounding $1,850 may test the bears. If at all the bullion prices drop below $1,850, a nine-month-old rising support line around $1,835 will be crucial to watch as a daily closing beneath the same could open doors for the south-run targeting the sub-$1,800 zone. Overall, gold is due for a short-term recovery before an important piece of US economics.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MTradingGlobal