NIFTY-BANK
MARUTI IDEA CONTINUATION - NOW ON 4 HR FROM DAILYWITH CONTINUATION FROM DAILY TO 4 HOUR TIME FRAME -
THERE SEEMS TO BE DESCENDING TRIANGLE FORMATION
CURRENTLY ITS TAKING SUPPORT @ TREND LINE OF FORMATION
A BREAK BELOW - FALL WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH DAILY FRAME ANALYSIS.
IF NOT CAN GO BACK TO RETEST NECK LINE
ON WATCH-LIST NOW
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NIFTY BANK Vs PSU Bank Vs Private Bank I was wondering who is pushing the Bank Nifty, so I decided to visualize this by this simple comparison.
The three major PSU banks are compared with the NIFTY BANK there market cap is as follow
3 (25%) PSU banks out of 12 holds 28.05186836 % of NIFTY BANK VALUE.
9 (75%) Private banks out of 12 holds 71.94813164 % of NIFTY BANK.
YoY in % YTD in % 30 mar to 18 Nov in %
BANK NIFTY -5.56 -8.14 57.31
PSU BANK* -41.95 -43.64 6.03
State Bank Of India -25.47 -26.3 31.7
Punjab National Bank -49.1 -52.8 -7.29
Bank Of Baroda -51.28 -51.82 -6.32
PRIVATE BANK** -17.32 -19.41 62.00
INDUSINDBK -42.02 -45.4 96.12
AXISBANK -13.6 -15.58 72.68
ICICIBANK -1.29 -8.21 56.2
HDFCBANK 11.16 9.92 68.91
RBLBANK -32.71 -36.7 47.8
KOTAKBANK 12.16 9.91 42.9
BANDHANBNK -37.12 -29.3 66.43
FEDERALBNK -32.51 -33.8 45
IDFCFIRSTB -20 -25.6 62
*Average of PSU banks included in NIFTY BANK only
** Average of Private banks included in NIFTY BANK only
(YoY) in % YTD in % 30 mar to 18 Nov in %
BANK NIFTY -5.56 -8.14 57.31
PRIVATE BANK** -17.32 -19.41 62.00
PSU BANK* -41.95 -43.64 6.03
Where BANK NIFTY is down by 5.5% PSU BANK* is down by 41.9% on YoY basis.
After 30 march 2020 where BANK NIFTY is up by 57.3% PSU BANK* is only up by 6% even though PSU banks holds 28.05186836 % of NIFTY BANK VALUE.
It is interesting to see that after 30 march 2020 ,the 28.05 %(%value in Bank Nifty) of 57.3 is 16.7 that means PSU BANKS** contribution in Bank Nifty is lagging by (16.7-6=10.7)10.7%
It is interesting to see that after 30 march 2020 ,the 71.94 %(%value in Bank Nifty ) of 57.3 is 41.24 that means Private BANKS** contribution in Bank Nifty is leading by(62-41.24=20.76) 20.76%
With the above observation it is clear that at least PSU banks included in NIFTY BANK are the ultimate underperformers and the move of NIFTY BANK is solely because of the Private banks in NIFTY BANK in the last two years
Data Taken from nseindia official website.
Let me now what's your take on the above observation in comments and also comment about such bad performance of PSU banks.
13th JULY BANK NIFTY TRADE SETUPThe possible support and resistance are given. Trading the small range breakout is advisable. With lockdown in some states, the price should further go down. This could be a possible pullback, but with the lockdown restrictions in some states and increasing coronavirus, the sentiment of the market could result in a red candle day. As the big support is broken on 10th of july, the price should further go down.
NIFTY - Tri Star Doji on Weekly charts, extreme indecisiveness Nifty changed -0.75 point during the week and made third consecutive Doji, this completes a Tri Star Doji Pattern.
Tri Star is a rare (more so on weekly charts) and significant pattern, indicates extreme indecisiveness. The pattern is generally followed by a trend reversal and sometimes strong trend continuation .
Nifty has actually moved some 14 points since 1st Nov. (four Fridays), this consolidation has to end (may end next week only) and it will post a big move (2-4%) in direction of breakout. The range of Tri star (11800 - 12040) sounds big but from today's closing (i.e. 11914) it just have to fall 114 points or rise 126 points to break the range, which is not a big move for a week.
In order to make an estimate about the expected direction of Nifty, we'll have to look at indicators / oscillators, RSI on weekly chart is not giving any clear indication, but on daily or shorter duration charts, indicators are showing clear weakness.
I even studied Option Chain and noticed that there have been some unwinding of positions in Puts 11000 to 12000 strikes, while positions in calls for strike 11800 - 12400 were added today. Those of you who understand option chain data, will be able to conclude easily "how discomforting it can be for the bulls".
Short period indicators including EMA on RSI continues to be weak, with today's fall weakness can be seen even on daily charts.
So far all this has been indicating that chances of Nifty breaking the range downwards are higher, but we are in a bullish market and things can change in to time, I'll continue to trade with a downward bias monitoring the trend closely.
Positional shorts only after 11840 is broken, add more to shorts if and when 11800 is taken too.
"Puneet_9EMA_21_RSI" is a simple and reliable indicator, many of us have been using it for a few months as it has given some reliable and timely "Enter" and "Exit" signals, during the past three months. Please back test yourself - it will give you confidence in trades.
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This post is not an advice to speculate using leveraged products, one must thoroughly understand the financial implications, consult some financial adviser before taking any positions.
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