NIFTY - Tri Star Doji on Weekly charts, extreme indecisiveness
Nifty changed -0.75 point during the week and made third consecutive Doji, this completes a Tri Star Doji Pattern.
Tri Star is a rare (more so on weekly charts) and significant pattern, indicates extreme indecisiveness. The pattern is generally followed by a trend reversal and sometimes strong trend continuation.
Nifty has actually moved some 14 points since 1st Nov. (four Fridays), this consolidation has to end (may end next week only) and it will post a big move (2-4%) in direction of breakout. The range of Tri star (11800 - 12040) sounds big but from today's closing (i.e. 11914) it just have to fall 114 points or rise 126 points to break the range, which is not a big move for a week.
In order to make an estimate about the expected direction of Nifty, we'll have to look at indicators / oscillators, RSI on weekly chart is not giving any clear indication, but on daily or shorter duration charts, indicators are showing clear weakness.
I even studied Option Chain and noticed that there have been some unwinding of positions in Puts 11000 to 12000 strikes, while positions in calls for strike 11800 - 12400 were added today. Those of you who understand option chain data, will be able to conclude easily "how discomforting it can be for the bulls".
Short period indicators including EMA on RSI continues to be weak, with today's fall weakness can be seen even on daily charts.
So far all this has been indicating that chances of Nifty breaking the range downwards are higher, but we are in a bullish market and things can change in to time, I'll continue to trade with a downward bias monitoring the trend closely.
Positional shorts only after 11840 is broken, add more to shorts if and when 11800 is taken too.
"Puneet_9EMA_21_RSI" is a simple and reliable indicator, many of us have been using it for a few months as it has given some reliable and timely "Enter" and "Exit" signals, during the past three months. Please back test yourself - it will give you confidence in trades.
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This post is not an advice to speculate using leveraged products, one must thoroughly understand the financial implications, consult some financial adviser before taking any positions.
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Please consider hitting the LIKE button below the chart, if you find this post / idea worthy. You may also FOLLOW me over this forum for periodic updates on Nifty , Bank Nifty and bullion.
Tri Star is a rare (more so on weekly charts) and significant pattern, indicates extreme indecisiveness. The pattern is generally followed by a trend reversal and sometimes strong trend continuation.
Nifty has actually moved some 14 points since 1st Nov. (four Fridays), this consolidation has to end (may end next week only) and it will post a big move (2-4%) in direction of breakout. The range of Tri star (11800 - 12040) sounds big but from today's closing (i.e. 11914) it just have to fall 114 points or rise 126 points to break the range, which is not a big move for a week.
In order to make an estimate about the expected direction of Nifty, we'll have to look at indicators / oscillators, RSI on weekly chart is not giving any clear indication, but on daily or shorter duration charts, indicators are showing clear weakness.
I even studied Option Chain and noticed that there have been some unwinding of positions in Puts 11000 to 12000 strikes, while positions in calls for strike 11800 - 12400 were added today. Those of you who understand option chain data, will be able to conclude easily "how discomforting it can be for the bulls".
Short period indicators including EMA on RSI continues to be weak, with today's fall weakness can be seen even on daily charts.
So far all this has been indicating that chances of Nifty breaking the range downwards are higher, but we are in a bullish market and things can change in to time, I'll continue to trade with a downward bias monitoring the trend closely.
Positional shorts only after 11840 is broken, add more to shorts if and when 11800 is taken too.
"Puneet_9EMA_21_RSI" is a simple and reliable indicator, many of us have been using it for a few months as it has given some reliable and timely "Enter" and "Exit" signals, during the past three months. Please back test yourself - it will give you confidence in trades.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
This post is not an advice to speculate using leveraged products, one must thoroughly understand the financial implications, consult some financial adviser before taking any positions.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Please consider hitting the LIKE button below the chart, if you find this post / idea worthy. You may also FOLLOW me over this forum for periodic updates on Nifty , Bank Nifty and bullion.
Order cancelled:
Nifty never breached the lower point of Doji, and breached the high point. The short side trade has been negated, generally when a doji pattern is breached on top, it goes up substantially. Nifty formed a big body bullish candle today, most indicators, including EMA on RSI turned positive - closed at high point of the day recording highest closing after the budget day fall. May go up further . . . .