Nifty Analysis for Monday 29 July 2024Nifty created sharp upside momentum in last 2 days, it's ultimate goal is 25000.
So I am providing highest probability intraday setup in Nifty50
My overview is bullish in nifty for Monday... it will good if Market opens gapdown or flat & creates a selling swing in first 30-45 mins then after creating a support price will bounce.
If Market opens gapup or flat and moves upside in first 30-45 min. then there is a very less probability of continuation so if Market creates M pattern then selling swing will be expected and intraday low break is min. expected.
Nifty-intraday
7th Dec ’23 - Should I change my Nifty stance to neutral?Nifty Today’s Analysis
Recap from yesterday: “As an analyst, it is very difficult to predict when the trend will end, but we need to keep looking. For tomorrow, I prefer to continue with the long bias unless we give up the 20853 in the morning session.”
4mts chart link - click here
The opening candle was explosive, in line opening with a strong fall. See the depth in RED - you will understand from the chart. I was eagerly waiting for it to cross that 20850 level today but that did not happen. Let us try to analyze why we had such a bold opening candle move. Both BankNifty and NiftyIT had a similar opening, so it was not an isolated issue. Some players might have sold off their winners to go light into tomorrow’s RBI meet or it could be a long unwinding out of fear that the markets will fall today due to the US market handout.
From there Nifty climbed back to the 20920 level by 11.03 and then the trade was in a small range till the close. From 14.31 to 14.59. At 13.19, 20850 PE was trading at Rs1.95 when the spot was at 20911 - for me, it appeared damn cheap. Nifty made one more attempt - but it went nowhere.
63mts chart link - click here
The last 4 candles of today had perfect “open = close” values. 3 of them were perfect Dojis - look up the textbook for Doji candles, maybe the example quoted there won't match with the real ones of today. Tomorrow’s RBI’s meet @ 10.00 AM is going to be a decider - no level of technical analysis can predict when there is a news flow expected. I wish to maintain my long stance as of now although it's itching to go neutral.
16th Nov ’23 Nifty Postmortem - Almost breaks 19776 resistanceNifty Weekly Expiry Analysis
Between the last expiry and today, Nifty50 has gained 359pts ~ 1.85% and broken 2 important resistance levels. We almost took out the 19776 resistance today but for a strong red candle @ 14.15.
Nifty Today Analysis
Recap from yesterday: “On the 1hr chart, the next target to break will be 19776 which is just 100pts away. Something that is easily possible if SPX holds its ground today. Since most of the market participants are long-only, any upsurge will sweep in more market participants.”
Nifty opened inline and then was steaming ahead, As we discussed yesterday it took out the 19776 with so much ease. The 3 5mts candles between 11.00 to 11.10 showed how the momentum picked up right before the resistance zone which kind of indicated that the rally was not going to slow down. By 13.55 we picked up more pace, quite visible by the FII participation on the BUY side. We hit an intraday high of 19875 by 14.45 and then something unplanned happened. We dropped 153pts in the 25 minutes, we will explain that in detail during the BankNifty Analysis below.
On the 1hr chart, we closed slightly below 19776, the 14.15 hourly candle is well-lit like a beacon. I am still continuing my bullish stance in the hopes that 19776 will get taken out during the forenoon session tomorrow. If not, I will be changing my stance to neutral and will update it via tradingview minds.
13 Sep ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty - Cautiously BullishNifty Analysis
Recap from yesterday: “I wish to just wait and watch for tomorrow and not get into an aggressive long position until Nifty50 has consolidated at the current levels. I wish to modify my stance to neutral from bullish. If we break the 19870 levels tomorrow — I wish to go short (bearish).” . I did not get into any new long position in Nifty, in fact I rolled up the PE to 19900 from 19800.
The rally momentum is not lost, its just that we had a blip yesterday. Seems like Moneycontrol got the reason for the huge cut on Midcaps and Small caps yesterday - Talk of basket selling by European financial services firm fuels meltdown in mid, small-caps
Nifty50 rallied 0.7% ~ 139pts vs Midcap +0.12% & SmallCap +1.02%. Has some money rotated and re-entered the large caps? The reason I did not go long today - The swing high of 20110 still not taken out. Meanwhile its still a win for the bulls as the final close is above 20000 levels.
On the 1hr chart Nifty50 is looking all the more positive and raring to go. I too wish to go long with downside protection via PUTS. The swings in options prices were crazy and the volume of put writing was intense suggesting more traders are betting on the bullish side. I expect the expiry to be above 19989 if we still have the bullish sentiment. I wish to stay 50% neutral and 50% bullish for tomorrow and would like to go 100% bullish once the swing high of 20110 is taken out.
12 Jul '23 Post Mortem on Nifty | Will the bulls be We had 2 downward selling momentum, the first one mainly due to the gap up opening - which saw a loss of 106pts by 12.00 and then the 2nd one between 14.40 to close which erased 99pts.
Technically Nifty has fallen only 55pts today, the gap-up messed up the numbers. So we had a dip below the yesterday's swing low and retraced all the way to the close of 10th July.
The 19504 level is proving to be quite a resistance, rightly so because its the ATH levels. To break free Nifty needs more momentum & the only way to do that is reverse from a sharp fall. Well it made a try on 11th but failed.
The 1hr TF has still not turned bearish, for that to happen we should fall below 19301 within the opening hour tomorrow or close the day below 19338.
There will be 3 things to watch out tomorrow.
1. India's MoM CPI comes in higher at 4.81%
2. US CPI comes in lower at 3.0%
3. HDFC gets delisted on 13th July
Trades Taken & Rationale
I was quite surprised to see the gap up open today and the 19300/19400 CE bullish debit spread was trading profitably. I almost had complete belief that N50 will not fall that much. Even when we hit an intraday low by 12.03 my position was deep in losses & did not square off.
You wont believe I got panicked by seeing the 13.35 candle, somehow it did not feel right & eventually I closed the position at loss by around 13.42. The prices were 19300 @149.7 & 19400 @72.25. By around 13.50 I started feeling guilty to have over reacted and thought of entering into another bullish spread in the 20th July series.
But seeing the 15.00 and 15.05 candles, my guilt turned into relief. Had I held onto those trades the losses would have been 3 times more.
intraday, swing, short term; min 70% returs
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long term investment; min 70% return
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investment ;
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more possibility is there for breakout.
entry-358
target-568
Nifty Trading Plan for Expiry Nifty End Of Day Analysis for Trading on 04 May
Trading Support and Resistance levels for Nifty
Resistance Level
R3 -18286-98
R2 -18120-31
R1-18064-74
Support Levels
S1-18006-15
S2-17940-50
S3-17820-30
Nifty Trend Signal From Open Interest Analysis
PCR ratio as per Option Chain Analysis - 0.81 ( Bearish )
Max Pain As per Option Chain Analysis -18050
Major Resistance as Per Nifty Open Interest Analysis - 18200
Major Support as Per Nifty Open Interest Analysis -18000