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Niftycorrection

Investment Opportunity after a healthy correctionI have been tracking Nifty since months, to exploit investment opportunity. It is always better to invest (in the market) after a correction. You get competitive prices which results in potentially more upside (returns). The indicator ploted here is Bollinger bands in weekly time frame. You may see that every time Nifty hit lower Bollinger bands, eventually it bounced back up. So, there is a high probability that "history will repeat itself". So, if you were waiting for right time to invest in, this is the time (only when Nifty touches lower Bollinger bands). Pickup the fundamentally strong companies (at least 10 companies) and invest "equal amount" in each of them. Or you can consider buying any Nifty 50 ETF (if you are very conservative/not an experienced). It may also happen that the Nifty will correct (19% from the highs, somewhat around 15090). So, please be ready for this. Remember, the market will "not jump as soon as you buy a stock". It may "fall even more" and/or consolidate for some weeks/months. It "does not mean sell". STAY INVESTED. Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI certified investment advisor. The facts and suggestion given in the above article is based on my understanding and experience in the markets. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by UnknownUnicorn7637383
Q&A_ How to read India VIX and what does it actually mean?Namaste! India VIX is a volatility index based on the NIFTY Index Option prices. From the best bid-ask prices of NIFTY Options contracts, a volatility figure (%) is calculated which indicates the expected market volatility over the next 30 calendar days. In simple words, it tells us the % market is expecting Nifty to move (whether up or down) in the upcoming 30 calendar days. India VIX chart analysis:- You must have noticed that each time VIX touch 10-11% levels, it bounces off. Did you ever think what is the annual average return of Nifty 50? Well, it's around 12%. Don't forget, Nifty also has yearly dividend yield of around 1%, so the total becomes:- India VIX support = 11% Dividend yield of Nifty = 1%, total 12%. I agree, the upper statement sounds non-sense, but in simple terms, it feels logical to me. VIX has to come down, for the Nifty to go up. In other words, we should be ready for a correction in Nifty, until the VIX touches 11% levels. India VIX goes in the opposite direction than Nifty 50. Why? Because, the long term trend of the Nifty is up. Hence, VIX will only rise, when there is a shift (expectation) to the downside. Nifty50 chart analysis:- 1. Nifty has hit the strong weekly trendline resistance, this is the 4th time. I am expecting at least 1 more corrective rally on the downside, which makes it a 5 time resistance. The 5 number is based on the recent history of Nifty 50. Since 2016 to 2020, there were 5 supports, and 5 resistance in the same period. 2. ADX (Average Direction Index) is hovering around 22 points and sloping downwards. It generally means, the market isn't liking the short term uptrend, if it could, then ADX must rise. Q: When the next correction starts, will all the stocks in the Nifty 50 fall? A: No, but a small yes. All stocks will correct, but the overvalued will correct more. Q: Should I wait for the correction to invest in? A: Nope. You should start investing now, because many stocks in the Nifty 50 has been become undervalued due to this correction (like the IT sector except TCS). Choose them wisely. I don't recommend investing in more than 10 companies of the Nifty 50. Obviously, you should not concentrate your portfolio in any of the sectors, but diverse in the companies and sectors whose business you understand. Disclaimer: The analysis I have shared is based on my understanding and experience in the markets. Investment does not guarantee a fixed return due to volatile nature of markets and may result in a loss. Please do your analysis and/or consult your financial advisor before investing.
NSE:INDIAVIX
by UnknownUnicorn7637383
Nifty Top and Correction Prediction/Analysis This post is to analysis or predict the Nifty possible top in future. On 13th Aug 2021, Nifty closed at 16529. This analysing has been made on Nifty Monthly Chart from Nov'1998 to Aug'2021. I have tried to summarize the nifty movement in a "complete cycle" of Bull and Bear market. Let's understand what is "Complete Cycle" means? To begin with, I would like to introduce few concepts that will be important for this study: 1. "Last Downside to Current Upside (A)" aims to establish a relation between current upside to previous downside. Calculated by dividing current cycle upside % by previous cycle downside % 2. "Breakout Run (B)" is based on high-to-high approach and shows how much return Nifty has generated from its previous cycle high to current cycle high. 3. "Combined Study" is a study of both factor (A) and (B) together. Starting point for this analysis is considered when Nifty was at 800 points in Nov'98 (which was the low of that period). - 1st cycle was started in Nov'98. During the period, Nifty uptrend was continued till Jan'08 when Nifty touched 6357 points (~695% up from the low). Ignoring the small vibrations during the cycle, Nifty contracted ~65% (or, 4085 points) between Jan'08 to Oct'08 to make a low at 2252 points to conclude "1st Complete Cycle". - 2nd cycle was started in Oct'08 and concluded in Dec'11. During the cycle, however, Nifty failed to break the high of previous cycle but touched to 6338 points (~181% up from 1st cycle low) and then contracted to low of 4531 points in Dec'11 (~29% down from top) to complete the 2nd cycle. ** Last Downside to Current Upside - 2.81, No breakout of previous cycle high - Hence, no combined ratio to be calculated - 3rd cycle was started in Dec'11 and concluded in Feb'16. During the cycle, Nifty broke the high of previous cycle and touched to 9119 points (~101% up from 2nd cycle low) and then corrected to 6825 points (~25% down from top) from Mar'15 to Feb'16. ** Last Downside to Current Upside - 3.55 and Breakout run of 43%. Combined ratio is 1.54 - 4th cycle was started in Feb'16 and concluded in Mar'20. During the cycle, Nifty again broke the high of previous cycle and touched to 12430 points (~82% up from 3rd cycle low) and then corrected to 7511 points (~40% down from top) from Jan'20 to Mar'20. ** Last Downside to Current Upside - 3.26 and Breakout run of 36%. Combined ratio is 1.19 - 5th cycle was started from Mar'20 and is currently in process. Till date, Nifty is up ~120% from 4th cycle low point. ** Currently, Last Downside to Current Upside - 3.04 and Breakout run of 33%. Combined ratio is 1.01 Average combined study for 3rd cycle and 4th cycle comes out at 1.36 (simply, taking mean of combined study for 3rd and 4th cycle). Now to achieve this mathematical calculation of combined study (1.36), Nifty top should be around 17450 which can be considered a level where nifty can correct itself. Nifty at 17450, a bull rally of ~132% will be achieved from the low (7511) made during COVID crash. Now to analyse how much Nifty can correct from 17450 level, I want to assume the previous corrections (corrections in normal scenario to be considered, which shall not be effected by any external factors like 2008 crash or 2020 crash). To believe the average correction Nifty made in 2nd and 3rd cycle, future correction shall be for around 25-27% from the top. However to support the correction calculation, let's combine the study with Nifty Monthly Chart Analysis. During current 5th Cycle, Nifty has breached the upper trendline in Dec'20 which was started back in Jul'08. If Nifty comes to re-test this trendline in future, the correction should extend ~20-22% which can bring the Nifty to around 13500-14000 range. NSE:NIFTY NSE:NIFTY DISCLAIMER: This formula and study is computed by me and is shared for educational purpose only.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by caguptachirag