Trend is your friend & the fallacy of catching reversalsHere in this video, I discuss with you a losing trade which I took today and what we can learn from it.
I also share with you important things regarding gaps , and how a beginner is always trapped in reversals and why it's profitable to stay on the current side of the trend.
Follow @piyushrawtani if you find this video helpful .
Niftyindia
NIFTY 50 crucial levels for Expiry Day! - i was keep telling that market is opening in huge gap up it is not a encouraging move for market , now filling those gaps
- another thing to remember while investing in stocks , Smart money is moving away from market
- Day Volatility is increased by Nearly 5% , if anyone taken trade without knowing crucial S&R they will hitted by SL
-Currently NIFTY is trading above 21Day ,50 Day, 100 Day moving averages
- - WEEKLY pivot point is at 18180
🛑 Key levels to watch out for intraday traders :-
- resistance is at 18470 - 18500 (here we can see ( option chain) more short positions were holding at 18500 CE)
-with SL of 18400
- 18570 we can see as the target after breakout
- support level is at 18200 - 18180
-with the SL of 18250
- 18100 we can see as target after breakdown
if you like it do follow for more , Have a nice day ...
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Nifty looks weak and unlikely to hold its place!! Prediction: Since there is Jackson Hole Event, chances are that market wont leave their position open. Hence, there are high chance that we see Nifty down tomorrow.
Further, 16715 is important resistance followed by 16680 and 16650 and market is unlikely to cross 16715 because of the said event. Hence, on every resistance it is best to short nifty. with the SL of 16715.
NIFTY LOOKS TO TEST ITS SUPPORTSNifty at its curial support of 16630, any fall would take the index to 16580-550. Also, Nifty has made double top and accordingly, likely to test 16380-50 levels soon so that double top pattern can be completed!!
Further, if cues are negative from Jackson Hole Event i.e., liquidity cut, we may see a good correction all over the world market. However, as the COVID cases are increasing in US, I believe the US Government will not cut the liquidity flowing in market and hence, its unlikely that Nifty will test lower levels and should fly above 16380-50.
PS: I am amateur in this huge investment world. Kindly check with your financial adviser before investing/ shorting/ longing the index.
NIFTY REVIEW | 20-07-2021NSE:NIFTY
It open with gap down in the range of 15720.
It gave the significant Bullish Candle at 9.:30 , which break the level of 15685 zone. Which shows the bearish sign in the market.
But as per our scenario 2 we were expecting gap down till 15645 Zone but today that level of 15645 zone reached with the 3rd candle at 9:45am. And then it took reversal to test 15685 zone and faced the resistance.
And as per our scenario 2 this zone was the entry zone for PE/Short side and it hit our 1st target as per our first target and it was easy 50 points.
I have also mentioned 2nd entry in the Chart. Most of trader might have also taken that entry as well.
Some trader might have also get the 3rd entry as In 2nd half it again went up to test 15685 zone and failed again to break it above this level. And gave a very good move of 50points again. So it was the same 2nd trade at the same levels on the same day.
I am posting it to explain, working of price action at different levels. So sometimes if Nifty doesn't open as per our assumption then we have to follow our levels to get the trade. This is what happened today.
Do comment if you have any doubt. Also comments if my ideas and levels are helping you to understand price action.
Nifty 2001-2021: A complete thread on 2 decadesHi everyone, I have tried to provide a holistic view of all the market cycles of Nifty from 2001-2021. This post may or may not make sense, hence just read without any predefined notion. This post took me a few days to get rolling, so please show some appreciation.
We will be talking about the following parameters:
1. Corrections after each cycle
2. Price versus RSI
3. The 3 major crashes from 2001-2021
4. Market structure
5. Date and Price range of each cycle
6. Mean value of RSI
7. Candlestick patterns formed before the reversal
8. Nifty vs US Dollar index(DXY)
9. Current Situation
Corrections after each cycle:
After each bull run, the market corrected anywhere between 0.382 to 0.786 Fibonacci levels. Normally, the correction was shallow, from 0.382 to 0.5 Fib levels. But in rare cases, when there was some external driving force, it corrected to 0.618 to 0.786 levels. At the end of each Bear run, the market rallied about an average of 167%, from the low of the Bear run to the high of the Bull run. In the current cycle, we have rallied about 110%.
Price versus RSI
If we look at the RSI levels of each cycle from 2001-2021, we can see that the maximum RSI at the peak was around 85 and the minimum RSI at the peak was 66. The RSI of the current cycle is 74.
The 3 major crashes from 2001-2021:
1. UPA 1 election crash of 2004 – The price fell spontaneously and corrected till 0.618 Fibonacci level, where it found support from the 50 simple moving average.
2. The Great recession of 2008 – At this time, the markets all over the world saw heavy selling pressure due to the collapse of the housing industry in the US. Nifty plummeted to around 2k, which coincided with 0.787 Fibonacci level. This level was also supported by the 100MA.
3. The Covid Pandemic of 2019 – The market witnessed a steep fall from 12k to 7k within 2 months. Again, this level was a confluence zone of 0.786 Fibonacci level and 100MA. Like I said in the beginning, the market only had a deeper correction to 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci levels only in the times of some external driving force. In all others cases, the market only dropped to 0.382 or 0.5 Fibonacci level.
Market structure:
Since 2001, we are in a continuous Bullish market on the monthly time frame. The price has been forming a continuous series of Higher Highs and Higher Lows.
Date and Price range of each cycle:
The market rallied about an average of 167%, from the low of the Bear run to the high of the Bull run. In the current cycle, we have already rallied to about 110%. Each swing on average took about 1008 days for the formation. On this note, the present swing is the shortest swing till now and took about 486 days for the formation. Who knows, what might we see next? The cycle from 2004-2008 lasted about 1338 days and gave about 392% gain and only had a few shallow corrections on lower time frames.
Mean value of RSI:
We can see that the maximum RSI at the peak was around 85 and the minimum RSI at the peak was 66. If we calculate the simple mean values of the 5 swings from 2001-2011, we get the mean value of the RSI at the swing high as 75 and the mean value of the RSI at the swing low as 40. Currently, we are already standing at 73.
Candlestick patterns formed before the reversal:
Although there are plenty of reversal patterns out there and any of them can occur at any point in time. But in the case of Nifty, we have seen only a few patterns in a repetitive manner. These include – Hammers, Dojis, and Bearish Engulfing. If you want you can see the names in a more specific fashion, you can call them as shooting stars, hanging man, spinning top, etc.
In the current cycle, we saw a series of hammers from January to April. But in May, a good Bullish candle was formed which broke out of the range of hammers. This invalidated the bearish bias. A small doji was again formed in June. Hence, we will have to observe in the coming months as to what type of candlesticks gets formed. This may help us in assessing the future direction of the market.
Nifty vs US Dollar index(DXY):
For the majority of the time, Nifty and DXY show a negative correlation sometimes they also exhibit an inverse relationship. A negative correlation is a relationship between two variables in which one variable increases as the other decreases, and vice versa. When the Nifty rises, DXY falls and when the DXY rises, Nifty falls. For a brief time period, we can also a positive correlation between the two when they both moved in tandem. At the moment, we are seeing an inverse correlation since the NIFTY is at a high and DXY is at a low.
Current Situation:
Lastly, if we observe, the price is currently sitting at the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level of the previous swing. If we are able to break through this level with good follow-up, we can see 18k level in the coming months. And if we fall from here, then we head to 14500 and ultimately 12500.
I hope you find this post useful. I may be wrong at some places, after all, I am just learning. Also, if anyone is interested in getting a consolidated PDF version of this thread, then you can message me, I'll provide it.
P.S: This is NOT investment advice. This post is meant for learning purposes only. Invest your capital at your own risk.
Happy learning. Cheers!
@johntradingwick
Nifty from from the year 2000 to 2020NSE:NIFTY from the year 2000 to 2020. High made in 2000 next in 2008 and the same is being tested in 2020. With a major difference being those were peak of a bull run. will this be the peak as well? RSI was too high even on monthly charts in 2000 and 2008. In 2020 its not there yet. Infact RSI also seems to show positive signs.
Basics Of Elliot Wave TheoryThe rules of elliot wave theory are strict, any break of the rule may lead into wrong analysis, always keep rules on your mind while labelling the waves. If you're a beginner, write down the rules in a sheet of paper, read it before labelling the waves.
How to improve yourself? Practice!
The more you practice, better the results.
Regards
NIFTY: Intraday Supply and Demand Zones-- 8400-8500 was a supply zone for Nifty and today it was managed to close above this zone. Next supply zone @ 8950-9050 and major supply zone @ 9300-9500. On the downside minor support @ 8650 and 8400-8500.
-- Demand Zones: 8650 / 8400-8500
-- Supply Zones: 8950-9050 / 9300-9500
Nifty: Intraday Demand and Supply ZoneNifty major demand zone @ 8120-8165 and supply zone @ 8450-8480. If Nifty will sustain below its demand zone then it may test it’s next support @ 7500 and may break the recent bottom.
If it will sustain above its demand zone then it may be sideways and I may sell OTM call and put options. Decreasing IV will also help to sink the option premium.
NIFTY: Intraday Demand and Supply ZonesYesterday Nifty closed above its very short term major supply zone @ 8000-8100. On the upper side next demand zone @ 8250-8330. Once it sustains above this zone it may test it’s next very short term major supply zone @ 8520-8660. It’s not easy to sustain above this zone. In any case, if it will manage to sustain then it may test its next supply zone @ 8880-9000.
The nifty small trading range will be 8000-8100 to 8520-8660 and the big trading range will be 8000-8100 to 8880-9000.
Can we Say that Nifty Has Bottomed out ?NSENG:NSE50
Just a Thought: Not for Trading Purpose
NIfty has been free-falling all Due to COVID 19 and the same for Gold, Commodities everything.
Chart that Nifty has the following in Pre 2008 Level and Post Market Crash in respect to USD/INR.
Similar kind of Trend can be Observed as marked inboxes.
Levels are marked for reference purpose only
Can we say that Market has Bottomed Out? Can we expect consolidation or Or Buying in Market?
Feel free to comment, open to discuss in more detail.
Nifty: Intraday Trade Plan
Today Nifty final closing was 11992 (below its supply zone @ 12000-12010). Tomorrow may be Nifty will trade in a wide range. If Nifty will sustain below 12000 then I may short Nifty OTM call and if it will sustain above 12000 then it may test 12060, in this case, I may avoid the trade.
Trade Well
Nifty: Intraday Trade Plan Hello,
As I have mentioned in my Nifty Weekly Analysis post that my view is bearish in Nifty. I will change my view once Nifty will sustain above 12265-12300 this week. Find the link below.
Intraday Demand Zone: 11975-12000
Intraday Supply Zone: 12085-12120
On Monday:-
If it will sustain below 12080 then I will start short OTM call options. and Once it will sustain below 12050 then I will short future for the target of the next demand zone.
If it will sustain above 12120 then I will avoid the trade.
Trade well
Nifty: Weekly Analysis: "Bhav Bhagwan Che"Hello,
Nifty is ready for the big move in this week and the maximum possibility is that this move will be on the downside.
On the upside, it's difficult to trade above 12200-12300 zone. I will change my view once it will trade above 12300 in this coming week.
I will watch 11700 and11600 zone, in any correction nifty will take support from 11700 or 11600 levels. If it will break 11600 then another 100 points downside will open.
In short below 12200 Nifty will be sell on rise for me. and my final targets are 11950-11900-11850-11800-11700.
Trade Well