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Niftyitanalysis

26th Dec ’23 - Positive Day with a rising VIX - PostMortem NiftyNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Since Monday is a holiday, it gives us added uncertainty on what to expect on Tuesday. Despite the 94pts gain by Nifty — I still see the price action as negative. I would like to go with a bearish stance for 26th Dec.” 4mts chart link - click here Seems like I got the bet wrong, despite weakening geopolitical events - Nifty traded in the positive territory today. Only in the opening 15mts or so we saw a slight tendency to go below water but it was quickly bought into. Nifty rallied 146pts ~ 0.69pts from the LOD to HOD by 12.23. NiftyIT 4mts charts - click here Once it hit the intraday high, the steam eased off and then we started going sideways. NiftyIT has been such a decisive factor for Nifty50 these days. It lost almost 382pts ~ 1.07% and then recovered 492pts ~ 1.4% all in the opening 90mts. The final close was in the RED though (-0.41%). 63mts chart link - click here I am forced to change my stance from bearish to neutral as the price action now shows a higher tendency to go up rather than down. Those strong RED candles of 20th Dec still haunt me - but it has failed to gather the momentum of the other bears. Since it's a holiday week - the FII action may be at a reduced space. Lower liquidity could bring in unusual price spikes - it is best suggested to take your trades with caution.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
13th Dec ’23 - Nifty Stance change to neutral worked perfectlyNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “But from a real price action perspective, I have changed my ultra short-term stance to neutral now. To gain back the bullish momentum, Nifty has to close above 21037. To go bearish, Nifty has to fall below 20691.” 4mts chart link - click here Nifty does a classic U-turn today, around the 20770 levels. For a moment I thought the neutral stance was not working and we would have to go into bearish mode. A small pullback was expected, but a 180pts mammoth reversal was not there in my mind. From a headline perspective, we closed flat today, which means neutral stance continues for tomorrow. 4mts chart link - click here Both BankNifty and NiftyIT orchestrated the U-turn. NiftyIT fell 781pts ~ 2.33% intraday to a session low of 32715 and then recovered 390pts ~ 1.19%. What this recovery did to Nifty was to shoot the bearish hopes in the leg. No matter what happens, the bulls are not giving room for the bears to breathe. The dip buying is so intense that I kind of feel its frothy. 63mts chart link - click here Nifty is still above the ascending channel, the bulls are still in control. All eyes will be on the FOMC meeting by FED. Any hints of not cutting the interest rates in 2024 may spook the US markets. We have the Nifty expiry tomorrow and as it stands the OTM premiums are pretty low indicating the option sellers are not expecting a big more tomorrow. In case we pick a direction tomorrow, the short sellers (PE or CE) will have to run for cover and that could spike the option premiums. I am going with a neutral stance for tomorrow also and wish to go bullish above 21037 and bearish below 20702.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
PostMortem on BankNifty Today & Analysis of 12 MAY 2023Another surprise today with 300pts ~ 0.69% move from 13.30 to 14.40, came at a time when no one really expected. Karnataka election results tomorrow and most traders would have anticipated we close the day subdued. The lower than expected CPI data of 4.7% would have leaked with few big-boys and they would have ended up loading the banks because from how I see it NSE:NIFTY only rallied 46pts in the same period. Lower inflation is good for the banks? I thought higher inflation translating to higher interest rate was good for the banks - guess I will have to spend more time reading some articles on this. NSE:BANKNIFTY & NSE:NIFTY are diverging in today's chart pattern, mostly because the NiftyIT was underperforming. Banknifty has made a higher high and the next swing could even reach up to the ATH. Nifty50 on the other hand has 2 more resistances to go. This divergence is not good and does not make sense, one of them has to catch up for a broad-based trend. If banknifty takes out the ATH with the Nifty50 flat - it wont end well.  --- Today's open was in line and then we had a gradual grind up till 13.30. From there it was a sling shot to take out the swing high of 4th May & 11th May. Since the final close was above both - we can safely assume that level is crossed. All 6 major banks participated in the rally from 13.30 to 14.40 - this unison is usually unusual. I do not really understand why would big-boys take an opposite position to the global trends in this weekend. Are they assuming that the Ruling party will win in Karnataka? Elections definitely moves the market, if the ruling party wins again - markets will like it. Who would not want stability and regime continuation. If this argument is correct - why was NSE:NIFTY not participating? What extra did the financial institutions had that the other top corporates did not? --- 15mts shows the higher-high and higher-low formation, the trend continues. Since we have taken out the recent swing high, the next level to watch is the all time highs. Before that the markets will be excited to see the election results on 13th May. Looking at the options data, lot of credit spreads were written at the PE side meaning more players expecting further upside movements. --- 1hr shows an awkward shaped W type formation, since the slope is upwards the double bottom is not horizontal but having the same degree of slope as the trend. It also makes sense to bring up the 1D chart as the ATH is just 270 to 300pts away ~ less than 0.7%. Is that not amazing, banknifty vs nifty50 - guess who the real champion is?
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by viswaram