#Nifty directions and levels for June11th.Good morning, friends! 🌺🍬 Here are the directions for June 11th:
There are no significant changes in the global market. It is still maintaining a moderately bullish sentiment based on the Dow Jones, while our local market also maintains a bullish trend. Today, the market may open with a neutral start, as indicated by GiftNifty, which shows an increase of 30 points.
Nifty and BankNifty both have the same sentiment; both consolidated in the previous session. So, as usual, structurally it’s a bullish trend, but we should wait for the range breakout. If it breaks, we can expect the rally to continue. If you want precise directions, here is a step-by-step guide:
> In the short term, the market is moving within a minor range. If the market opens neutrally, we can initially expect range continuation. That means if the market takes a pullback initially or if it takes support around the immediate support level, the market may bounce back a minimum of 78% in the minor swing.
> The rally will continue only if it breaks the previous high.
> The correction may be expected only if the market takes a sharp decline initially. If the decline sustains, we can expect the correction to continue with minor consolidations around 23,029 for Nifty.
Niftyoutlook
Nifty50 (10th june) 1/3Any Hourly closing below 23298 then 📉 📉 could test below levels 23213 -- 23170 ( Support zone )
If 23170 below closing sustains then could 📉 📉 to 22875
Any hourly closing above 23298 then bullish to above levels marked
Disclaimer:
It's a personal view not a financial advice and I assume no responsibility and liability whatever outcome arises
07 Jun 2024 - reclaiming ATHs, saying no to SCAM accuasationsThe most viral stock market news topic is the accusation that Rahul Gandhi made on HM and FM for their speech asking people to buy stocks for June 4th. Everything would have gone well if we did not have the 8.75% crash on 4th June, because the markets did have a beautiful run up till then.
The SCAM accusation would have really made sense if we did not have the recovery on 5th, 6th and 7th, because as it stands now the markets are literally up by 3.2% as of 31st May close. I do not know if this follow up buying is actually scam version 2 or not, or is it genuine buying after markets got enough confidence from Modi 3.0.
Even if someone bought nifty50 stocks on 03 June and if they did not sell, they are relatively flat as on 7th June - even after the violent swings.
Technically we are still maintaining the bullish stance till proven wrong.
Nifty ready for price correction? support at 22900 or more fall?Nifty and BN Analysis -
BN has not moved up compared to Nifty up move, reason is Nifty got some boost from IT stocks.
on 10th June or few days next week one correction seems to be coming in both N & BN
In Nifty once price move below 23200 in spot it could see 22900
I think support might come here between 22900 to 22800 in spot
If not Nifty will fall to 22500 to 22400 in spot.
In my previous charts showed Infy and TCS taking support and accumulation is visible.
It took long time for IT shares to spike up.
Big boys who pushed IT shares up were knowing US NFP data ig going to hot and Dollar index will spike and usdinr was higher with RBI support
RBI too predicted dollar index spike and its bullish already,
But IT stocks move up can not be relied or we can see easy correction before another up move.
And in this scenario when dollar index and usdinr moving up BN is very easy to fall or see a healthy correction
In this fall Nifty too will see some correction easily.
Nifty on Radar - 6 JuneToday we have an indecisive candle, but the price has managed to close in the positive zone.
The price could test its supply Zone but on the downside we are at higher risk.
Technically we are in no trade zone.
Disclaimer : This is my pre market analysis and my trading journal. Not a suggestion to buy or sell.
NIFYT prediction for today 7 Jun 24As we discussed yesterday, Nifty traded in a sideways-bullish zone.
If we look at the chart now:
The market is trading in a Bullish sideways market zone. Price has taken support at 200 EMA, and it has also formed a double bottom, which shows the market is in consolidation mode. If it breaks the neckline, you can make a bullish entry after a retracement.
Support levels: 22640, 22267, 21850
resistance levels: 22898, 23151, 23307
If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 0.82, which has increased from 0.63, shows a bullish sign in the market. 22800 is max-pain. On higher levels, there is much more PE writing compared to lower-side PE writing.
VIX has also decreased significantly, which indicates volatility is being controlled.
I am expecting the market:
Case 1 : Sideways in range of 22640-22898
Case 2 : On either side, it breaks to the upside. We can target the 23000 level.
Reason:
RSI > 60 shows a bullish structure.
Price > EMA(13, 50, 200), which indicates a Bullishmarket structure.
PCR = 0.82 has risen from 0.63 and shows signs of bullishness.
Price > VWAP shows a Bullish market structure.
Verdict: Sideways in range of 22640-22898. bullish if it breaks 22898 to the upside.
Plan of action:
Case 1 : Sideways: Sell 22650 PE & 22900 CE (Hedge it with 20/- premium options)
Case 2 : Exit 22900 CE if the market breaks to the upside.
NIFTY- A strong move is about to come?An index analysis idea after many many months.
Reason:- Today, we saw a short covering 400 points up move in Nifty with an ATH closing.
What is the chart speaking now?
Nifty has given daily closing above 22800 which was a strong supply zone.
23000 is a psychological resistance in Nifty now.
As from chart, it is clear that our dear Nifty is trading in a channel and 23100-23150 is the next supply zone. If we see a consolidation near 23000, we might see this resistance getting broken and strong bull run till 25000 should be expected.
However, there are high chances of bull trap getting formed in this zone , especially 4th June being an eventful day which is just 2 weeks away from now. I am expecting a highly volatile market till June end.
06 June 2024 - Nifty above 22781 resistance, slightly bullishOver the last 1 week, Nifty is up only 1.33% ~ 300pts, but we witnessed one of the most violent weeks in the last 4 years. Primarily because the exit polls overshot the expectations which gave a gap up of 3.5% ~ 792pts and then the actual polls came less than expected and this ensured we had a brutal fall of 2062pts ~ 8.84%.
Once the dust settled, we retraced the lost ground yesterday and closed at the same levels as 31st May. Today was a decent day, but not without volatility. For some reason or the other, I did not participate in the expiry day trading today, and was more than happy to just watch than do.
My forecast for today was a neutral day, but we ended up having a trending day. We rose 201pts ~ 0.89% to close just above the 22781 resistance. Most of you would have seen the Fibonacci retracement levels drawn on the chart yesterday, seems like we are respecting those levels today also - but the resistance cut through is prompting us to change the stance to bullish. The next target would obviously be to take out the ATH.
All eyes now would be on the oath ceremony wherein Narendra Modi may be crowned the PM for a historic third term. Read a whatsapp forward that he was Pradhan Manthri for the 2 terms and will be a Pradhan Man-three this time as the coalition is held by 2 other parties TDP and JDU.
Nifty50 Support And Resistance 7-Jun-24
Please find below simple resistance and support:
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05 Jun 2024 - Nifty50 Reversal or 61.8% Fibonacci retracement?No, I am not denying the credit to Nifty50 to have rallied 735pts ~ 3.36% to have a beautiful green today. I just drew the Fibonacci levels from the peak point of 3rd June and the bottom-most level of Jun 04 - the results are in front of you.
23.6% levels @ 21796 had some action
38.2% levels @ 22091 (quite near my 22051 SR level) had a stronger action
50% levels @ 22329 (quite near my 22295 levels) also had significant touchpoints
61.8% levels @ 22567 (quite near my 22519 levels) is where we closed today
I would not prefer to change my stance to bullish yet. The best I could think of is to go neutral and see how these levels are holding up for the next 1 week. The resistance of 22781 may be the game changer according to me.
And honestly, we are back at the levels just before the exit poll results. 3 violent moves would have shaken out a sizeable crowd of traders. It takes courage to even hang-on.
NIFTY Prediction for tomorrow 6 Jun 24NIFTY gave a really big bullish moment today. It's still an effect, and the market boomed 700+ points.
If we look at the chart now:
The market gave really big momentum to the upside. The market is trading above EMA, which shows that the market is really bullish right now. There is also a bullish EMA(13, 50) crossover, which indicates that the market is in a bullish phase now.
Support levels: 22246, 21850, and 21293
resistance levels: 22640, 22832, 23151
If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 0.61, which has increased from 0.53, shows a bullish sign in the market. There is no such max-pain Market that is clearly bullish. There is only good CE writing at 23000, which is going to provide a huge resistance.
VIX has also decreased significantly, which indicates volatility is being controlled.
I am expecting the market:
Case 1 : Sideways in range of 22253-22640
Case 2 : On either side, it breaks to either side's trade accordingly.
Reason:
RSI > 60 shows a bullish structure.
Price > EMA(13, 50, 200), which indicates a Bullishmarket structure.
PCR = 0.63 has risen from 0.53 and shows signs of bullishness.
Price > VWAP shows a Bullish market structure.
Verdict: Sideways in range of 22253-22640. and Volatile on either side, it breaks.
Plan of action:
Case 1 : Sideways: Sell 22250 PE & 22650 CE (Hedge it with 20/- premium options)
Case 2 : Exit the opposite position on either side. It breaks.
Way forward in Nifty next 3-4 weeks1. Yesterday, Later half of the market, price pull back happened from 200 ema, but the end cosing is quite uncertain
2. Blue highlighted area represents stong support 21500-21900
Price opening or closed below this area could unfold another 1000 point dowanward possibility.
3. What can happen,
A. Sidways moment on this support area, untill we get clear picture current political situation
B. High probability of downfalls, since the mandate is unacceptable. Seller will get aggressive on every rise. Volatility will increase
4. What should be done, Limit your stock positions for at least next 3-4 weeks.
Ideally fresh position shouldn't be taken untill the price close above 22400.
04 Jun 2024- Nifty almost hit the lower circuit ~ 10% intradayWhat a strange day it has been, the moment the market participants realized that BJP will not get a simple majority - we started falling. That realization came in the opening minutes and did not give me ample time to prepare.
Honestly, I did not expect such a move today. I really thought we would have the reaction on Wednesday instead. I was not really ready with my short position and to be frank, I lost almost 5 lakhs as opportunity cost today.
Nifty ended up negating the last 172 days of upmove, in the single daily candle of today. It is like watching your building collapse, something that you took 6 months to build.
Interestingly the reversal came at the 200 EMA and not at 21491. If you notice my chart, I do not have a support/resistance level between 21491 and 19855 - if we break that tomorrow, it is going to be a free-fall.
Stance updated to bearish till proven wrong.
Current, NDA 291, INDIA 234, Others 18.
Nifty on Radar - 3 JuneToday we have a gap up opening of more than 3% and the price has touched the levels of all time high.
The question is weather it sustain on these levels.
So, wait for the price to settle down.
Technically we are in a no trade zone.
Disclaimer : This is my pre market analysis and my trading journal. Not a suggestion to buy or sell.
Nifty50 ( 31st May) 1/2Hourly closing below 22584 -- 22609 will be 🐻 📉 📉 to 22428 and 22280
22280 could test within 3rd June
Any closing sustains above 22609 in hourly then 📈 📈
Disclaimer:
It's a personal view not a financial advice and I assume no responsibility and liability whatever outcome arises.
Nifty on Radar - 31 MayAn indecisive candle has been formed with Low High and High Low. Currently we are in a no trade zone. The important levels to watch are R1-22,705.75 and S1-22,417.00 Also the price could be volatile in this range.
Disclaimer : This is my pre market analysis and my trading journal. Not a suggestion to buy or sell.
31 May 2024 - Stance changed to neutral, all eyes on exit pollNifty was unable to break the 22519 support, the entire day we spent hovering around this support resistance level - but the sheer inability to break shows the lack of strength of the Bears.
I would have maintained the bearish stance if we had at least 1 candle below this level. Currently, the next support level is at 22295 and the resistance level is at 22781.
All eyes are on the exit polls now, to be frank - technical analysis won't work when there is news flow and there is no way to predict what is coming next.
To be honest, I am not aware if BJP will get the number of seats they had in mind or if we have a coalition govt or not. Personally, I prefer not to predict but take some aggressive positions once a clue appears.
My expectations for markets next week, post election results
1. 400+ seats - up 5%+
2. 270 to 399 seats - down 5 to 10%
3. less than 270 seats - down 25%
I am of the impression that we may have a fall after the initial surge as a few sectors are overvalued.
Nifty, Divergence Formed on the Weekly ChartA strong Divergence pattern is formed on the Weekly Chart.
Also we have an indecisive candle on the daily chart.
WTF Resistance : 23,200
WTF Support : 21,850
Disclaimer : This is my pre market analysis and my trading journal. Not a suggestion to buy or sell.
NIFTY Prediction for tomorrow | 3 June | MondayAs we discussed, Nifty had a sideways structure; it was sideways the whole day.
If we look at the chart now:
The market is trading in the range while taking good resistance at 200-EMA. The market is very volatile as VIX is 24.60. the market is trading in the range 22465 - 22639. If we look at the last two candles, it is a huge volume from the support zone as well as selling from the resistance zone.
If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 0.76, which has fallen from 0.53, shows a market bullish structure. 22500 is going to be MaxPain. 23000 is very Hard resistance with heavy CE writing.
I am expecting:
Case 1 : Sideways in the range 22465 - 22639.
Case 2 : If the market breaks 22465 to the downside or if the market breaks the upside, it will be bullish.
Reasons:
RSI < 50 shows a weak bull strength.
Price < EMA(13, 50, 200), which indicates a bearish market.
The market has formed a lower high lower low structure in 15-min TH that indicates the market is bearish unless the market tends to form a Higher-High.
PCR = 0.76 indicates neutral market behavior.
Price < VWAP shows that a weak market structure can lead to a bearish market.
Verdict: Sideways in range also can break to either side.
Plan of action :
Case 1: Sideways: Sell 22450 PE & 22650 CE (Hedge it with 40/-)
Case 2: Exit the loss-making leg once it breaks the channel.
Nifty on Radar - 30 MayToday we have a gap down opening and the price has made a strong negative candle.
The price is in a strong negative trend. The probability on the down side is more than 60%.
Also the price is entering in the compression zone.
Disclaimer : This is my pre market analysis and my trading journal. Not a suggestion to buy or sell.