16 May 2024–Stance upgraded to Bullish, Crazy 377pts intraday⬆️Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️
Recap from yesterday: "The good thing for the bulls was the fall ended at 10.27, for the remainder of the day we went into a small range bound trade. The final close was flat at -0.08%."
We started today right at the resistance level of 22295 and then started falling. We went below yesterday's low and took interim support at 22119 levels. From there the bounce took us to 22295 again by 12.19 and this time the rejection was stronger and it ensured we fell to the next support level of 22051.
What happened then was totally unbelievable, right at that level the rejection ensured we were retracing 377pts ~ 1.71% in 1 hour. Just crazy, unbelievable price action - normally we see that during news/event flows. 13 consecutive green candles, 15 out of 16 candles in green - just magical statistics.
On the 63mts TF, just look at the size of the 63mts candle - simply wow. Our stance is now bullish with the next target being 22519. If we are falling, we need to go below 22295 for a neutral stance and 22051 for a bearish outlook.
The algos were in deep loss today, courtesy of the fast & furious moves in the last 90mts. The forward test algo shows a profit of 2475, but the actual execution was in deep red due to slippages.
Niftyoutlook
Nifty of Radar - 16 MayToday we have a Breakout of Both bands and the Resistance of 22300.
Also RSI>50 indicates start of an uptrend.
But today's move is not tradable due to expiry volatility.
So, I wait for another candle to confirm the trend direction.
Disclaimer: This is my pre market analysis and my trading journal. Not a suggestion to buy or sell.
Nifty50 (16th May) 3/3Next hourly closing above 22164 then shortcovering could be possible 📈 📈 to above levels marked on the chart
If hourly closing below 22164 then 📉 📉 ( 22093 pending level )
22093 imp support below that any hourly closing will be 🥶 📉 📉
Disclaimers:
Its a personal view not a financial advise and I assume no responsibility and liability whatever outcome arises.
Nifty50 (16th May) 1/3Hourly closing below 22246 then 📉 📉 could test 22156
22156 could be a reversal level for upside 📈 📈
Closing in hourly above 22246 then 📈 to above target
If any hourly closing sustains above 22320 then bullish 📈 📈 to 22438
Disclaimer:
Its a personal view not a financial advise and I assume no responsibility and liability whatever outcome arises.
NIFTY Prediction for today 16 May 24Nifty has already given the breakout. right now it's in the consolidation phase of WAVE 1.
If we look at the chart now:
Market is in sideways zone in range: 22098-22293
Important Levels:
Support zones: 21811 , 21944, 22098
Resistance: 22544, 22763
If we look at OI data:
PCR = 0.73, shows neutral structure. as it's expiry market is highly probable to end sideways in the provided range. if we got the momentum it is likely to be bullish. 22200 is going to provide maxPain.
If we look the FII and DII data it is more of indecisive.
Verdict:
Sideways in range
Bullish if breaks the range 22293 to upside.
15 May 2024–Nifty gets a mild rejection at 22295, stance neutralNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️
Recap from yesterday: "I am hard-guessing it should be a short covering. The moment we get past 22295, we will be forced to go long."
The open was good and we started climbing quickly but at 22295 levels we got our first rejection. Four strong red candles between 09.51 and 10.27 brought N50 down by almost 143 points. If 22295 was breached, we would have changed our stance from neutral to bullish.
The good thing for the bulls was the fall ended at 10.27, for the remainder of the day we went into a small range bound trade. The final close was flat at -0.08%.
On the higher timeframe, we need to take out the resistance pretty quickly otherwise this pullback will start forming a lower high. A lower low, lower high formation is a bearish pattern and that would also mean the next leg of the down move will be more aggressive. At present we prefer to stay neutral till we get more clarity.
The algos made a profit of 15750 INR, MTM was into a loss earlier on, but after 11am things started improving.
Nifty on Radar - 15 MayToday we have a red indecisive candle with a high high and a high low.
The price is rejected from the resistance level of 22300.
Currently we are in a negative trend.
I just need another red candle with a breakdown of the previous candle low to enter a swing trade.
Disclaimer: This is my pre market analysis and my trading journal. Not a suggestion to buy or sell.
Nifty50 (15th May) 1/222296 --- 22241 ( No Trade Zone )
Closing below 22241 in hourly could trigger a downward momentum 📉 📉 📉 to 22136
Any hourly closing above 22296 then 📈 📈 to 22449
Disclaimer:
Its a personal view not a financial advise and I assume no responsibility and liability whatever outcome arises.
Nifty 50 Negative Divergences in Monthly Charts₹₹Nifty 50 making negative divergences in monthly charts. Below 21700 levels nifty will give breakdown after this Trend line from 2020 will act as support but if breakdown of this trend line then big down movement will be seen.
But before this Election Results will be in focus if results come same as market accepting then one bounce from these levels & then we can see profit booking & then movement will be according to charts. If election results are not same as market accepting then big negative for markets.
Let's hope for best & Trade with proper risk management. Thank you
14 May 2024–Nifty gets steam, is it short covering or fresh longNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️
Recap from yesterday: "The recovery was more than fast and furious, it even took out the 22051 resistance level. This nudged me to change the stance from bearish to neutral just for tomorrow."
Nifty started the day inline and then started climbing almost steadily. There were no visible drops, pullbacks, or attempts by the Bears to push down the prices. The decision to change the stance from bearish to neutral yesterday paid off.
At this point, I am not quite sure if it's the short covering or build-up of new long positions that is taking the markets higher. I am hard-guessing it should be a short covering. The moment we get past 22295, we will be forced to go long.
On the higher time frame, N50 has held on to the 21913 pretty strongly reinforcing the IH&S pattern (earlier). This could be read along with the new double bottom (W pattern) that is forming which shows the strength of the support level.
Nifty Algos ended the day with gains of 5625 INR
Nifty on Radar - 14 MayThe follow up candle of the Hammer candle indicates the start of an up trend.
The resistance level of 22300 is very important in tomorrow's trading range.
For a good swing trade setup we need to wait for a clear and confirmed trend.
Disclaimer: This is my pre market analysis and my trading journal. Not a suggestion to buy or sell.
13 May 2024– 310pts intraday bounce, stance changed to neutralNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️
Recap from yesterday: "On the 63mts TF, the bearishness continues. The next target of 21913 is still in our watchlist and if we fall below that - the real action begins."
The day took me by surprise, not with the inline opening and a 248pts ~ 1.12% downward fall, but the reversal of 310pts ~ 1.42%. The downside was in the cards, if you had read the previous day's post mortem report - you would have subscribed to those views.
And once again we broke the 21913 support, but gave it away real quick. The recovery was more than fast and furious, it even took out the 22051 resistance level. This nudged me to change the stance from bearish to neutral just for tomorrow.
On the higher time frame, I still cannot believe the reversal came from a technical perspective. Most likely the source seems like a news/event, did not find time to scan it as was busy with my Bday plans.
The Algos shows a profit of 10327 INR, but the actual results were negative, I guess it had to do with some wild swings that we had in between & due to slippage in bid/ask spread.
Nifty making Double Top PatternNitty making double top pattern on daily & weekly charts. Below 21700 this pattern get valid for target of 21300, 21011, 20888, 20555, 20222 December levels on 3 states election results & also fill the gaps between these levels. If Nifty close above 22222 levels then pattern become invalid & then we can see 22800 & above levels with election results prediction's. Thank you Trade with proper risk management.
NIFTY may 2024 outlookcmp : 22442
demand zone : 22305-22392
supply zone : 22740-22810
nifty is respecting both demand and supply zone.
breaking any one zone will be indication for next big directional move of 2-4%
price action suggest bearishness but if demand zone is respected it may bounce back.
any dip towards demand zone should be treated as buying opportunity with strict stop loss
GAP FILLUP PENDING 22140-22200
personal bias - bullish in medium term
note : just a educational publication and not a trading recommendation.
Nifty montly chart analysis for Month of April 2024.Nifty is around the ATH and there is profit booking at the higher levels.
The market is spending time near the high and last week too it has test the ATH. Seller are there in the higher levels and closing of the weekly candel is dicey.
Higher time frame is showing some RSI bearish divergence and market is forming grave stone doji on the daily charts.
Monthly charts has not formed a red candle still and is forming doji after doji which still shows no clear bearish indication. But the price is trading on the higher levels of the bollinger band.
Market participants be cautious as there seems to be a bearish month ahead.
This being the election year may remain volatile till the election results. Spike may be seen in this month or the next one either side.
Trend is still bullish and doji on the higher levels may indicate a reversal after a price action formation.
This month was a volatile one and market didn't settle either side. There was days when market has moved more than 400 points.
Last day move, is the only trending move in last 2 weeks, closing 180 points lower from the day high.
Price action is needed to be formed around the higher levels on higher time frame to confirm the trend.
NIFTY @ 22000 is very strong supportNifty is holding on to triple bottom support indicating a strong support. actually price should not have come to this support level rather it must have been to 23K But it has fallen due to RBI Draft guideline fears, RBI action on Kotak, rumors about election results along with sell off by FII for un known reasons .... no FII has spoke about selling and leaving India. I am long in Nifty for target of 22750 and 23K so I am coming up bullish view with possible support emerging on 13th. Its FII vs DII. so who sell more on 13th will rule market. only an informed person about FII selling can go short on 13th may. I wish to average and increase my Nifty - CE Buy in May and June monthly contracts with hedging.
10 May 2024 - Inability to take out the 22051 resistance - BEARSNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️
Recap from yesterday: "On the higher timeframe, N50 has made a massive double top, see the black dotted line. If it materializes, it could even be a real shocker to the bulls out there. Just like we discussed this week, if 21913 is getting taken out, the inverse H&S pattern will get negated."
Nifty was unable to take out the immediate resistance of 22051 conclusively although we stayed above these levels between 09.47 to 10.47 and then between 11.11 and 11.35. The inability to break out is some validation for the Bears to continue exerting the pressure.
On the 63mts TF, the bearishness continues. The next target of 21913 is still in our watchlist and if we fall below that - the real action begins.
#Nifty50 algo ended up generating Rs10912 today.
Nifty Institutional levels | Intraday - 10-May-2024Soon i will give update on how to use this IT levels in Options Trading.
Disclaimer:-
The information provided by our advisory service is for educational and informational purposes only. We do not provide investment, financial, or legal advice. Trading and investing involve risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Any decision to engage in trading or investment activities is at the sole discretion and risk of the individual. We strongly recommend consulting with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any investment decisions. We do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information provided, and we disclaim any liability for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information provided. Users are solely responsible for their own investment decisions and actions and off course we are not SEBI registered.
09 May 2024 - The decision to stay Bearish paid off handsomely🐻Nifty Analysis - Stance Bearish⬇️
Recap from yesterday: "On a closing basis, N50 finished the day above 22295 at 22302. Ideally, I should change the stance from bearish to neutral, but let me give the benefit of the doubt to the Bears for one more day."
If you look at the horizontal lines, it may appear like I drew them today after the Nifty's move. Thankfully many of my readers know pretty well that these lines were drawn way back and somehow the support/resistance levels look magically working.
Nifty opened below the 22295 level, closed the gap, and then started falling. The first candle gave the impression that N50 would stay neutral today, but after the 3rd candle, things were looking quite resourceful for the Bears. Even then, I never thought we would fall 345 points today, the max target I had in my mind was to retest the 22051 levels and then settle there.
22051 SR zone is shown in the 2nd blue highlight. From 12.51 to 14.31, N50 spent its time there before breaking down. The next major support was at 21913, but we did not go there thankfully.
On the higher timeframe, N50 has made a massive double top, see the black dotted line. If it materializes, it could even be a real shocker to the bulls out there. Just like we discussed this week, if 21913 is getting taken out, the inverse H&S pattern will get negated.
I am not really sure how my algos are minting money. The strategy I have is straddles and ideally in trending markets, I should be losing - maybe it has something to do with the unusually high VIX.
NIFTY 50 at key support levelNIFTY 50 is once again testing key support levels and the 2024 support trend line
If it sustains below 21837, it will be sign of reversal
Although it is almost certain to give a bounce from these levels
Unless...it's the end of the bull run, in which case there are a lot of gaps pending at lower levels
Nifty Institutional Levels | Demand & Supply | INTRADAY TRADING
Disclaimer:-
The information provided by our advisory service is for educational and informational purposes only. We do not provide investment, financial, or legal advice. Trading and investing involve risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Any decision to engage in trading or investment activities is at the sole discretion and risk of the individual. We strongly recommend consulting with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any investment decisions. We do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information provided, and we disclaim any liability for any loss or damage arising from reliance on the information provided. Users are solely responsible for their own investment decisions and actions and off course we are not SEBI registered.