FASP levels for Nifty 28/07/2023The FASP for Nifty is listed for 28-07-2023. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities.
What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)?
It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds.
Validity of the levels: 1 Day
How to use these levels?
The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options.
Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area
Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
Niftyoutlook
Nifty trade Setup for 27-07-2023Nifty important intraday levels to watch for 27-07-2023
#Support: 19760
Short if candle closes below 19760.
#resistance: 19820
Long if candle closes above 19820.
#Targets on downside after break of support.
Target 1= 19670
Target 2= 19580
Target 3= 19500
#Targets on upside after break of resistance.
Target 1= 18880
Target 2= 19990-20000
Remember each level will act as a support and resistance individually so there is a probability of reversal on either side. Please do your own research before initiating any trade. Always keep stoploss in order to protect your capital.
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Morning Mantra - 27th July 2023Dear All,
Just as we had stated yesterday about witnessing a bounce back in Nifty. Likewise the same was observed in the Market, yesterday itself.
So as per the current scenario, Nifty somehow seems to be creating a platform in between the levels of 19800-19550.
Therefore, in such a situation we have to be stock specific and have to keep rebalancing our portfolio. Moreover, since today is the day of weekly settlement, therefore we have also to be cautious for the day.
In the meanwhile, with the stop loss of 19550 , we can continue following the Cherry Picking strategy for now.
Regards,
Alok Daiya
SEBI Registered Research Analyst
26 Jul ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty | A trend reversal in store?Today’s gap up opening and the race towards 19825 took out my stop loss. From last Friday we were short on Nifty, this stop loss hit proves to me that the bears are short lived in our market.
Nifty50 went up 147pts ~ 0.75% from the prev. close enough to take out the 19800 levels where I had placed the protective stop. The main reason for the rally was the boost in RIL, ITC and LT.
Until the high of the day was formed - NiftyIT was also supporting it. And at 11.15 NiftyIT started reversing whereas banknifty which was starting to fall reversed. The contra move in NiftyIT and BankNifty was like a script from a tamil movie (perfectly musical). The final effect was Nifty50 was able to hold its ground.
At around 11.30, I was not able to agree with the technicals and took a smaller position - bought 19600 PE @ 10.5. Now I have 2 opposite positions of long and short on Nifty50 carried forward to the expiry tomorrow. Most likely the PE position will expire worthless or I may have to convert it into a ratio spread.
The negation of the short-term bearish trend is visible + the island formation due to the gap up. If we get a mega gap down tomorrow, i.e. a quick fall below the 19650 levels - I will be more inclined to ride on the bear wave and consider today’s price action as a fake.
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Please comment with your thoughts, opinion or bias, I will respond with mine!
Nifty analysis for 27/07/23 (monthly expiry).Nifty traded inside the first hour candle and closed 100 points higher forming a confusion candle charts.
The market are consolidating and creating confusion. On the hourly charts, started trading above the 20 ema after the gap up and took support from the levels. Nifty traded in 70 points range after the first hour candle.
Initially, both the indices were travelling in different direction and nifty leading but finally banknifty also followed the index and closed above 46k levels.
On 15 minutes chart, there was a constant rejection from 19825 levels and closed below the 20 ema after the fall of the final hour.
Support :- 19760, 19700, 19640
Resistance :- 19825, 91870 ,19990
Nifty has consolidated and can give nice trend on the monthly expiry. Watch for the movement as option premium can give nice movement too.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
Nifty Trade setup for 05-07-2023Nifty important intraday levels to watch for 25-07-2023
#Support: 19660
Short if candle closes below 19660.
#resistance: 19760
Long if candle closes above 19760.
#Targets on downside after break of support.
Target 1= 19600
Target 2= 19500
#Targets on upside after break of resistance.
Target 1= 19820
Target 2= 19870
Remember each level will act as a support and resistance individually so there is a probability of reversal on either side. Please do your own research before initiating any trade. Always keep stoploss in order to protect your capital.
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Morning Mantra - 26th July 2023Dear All,
From back to back 2 days, we have been witnessing a supply pressure in Nifty.
Where on the other hand, we have also been witnessing a stock specific momentum in the Market.
Well on the day chart of Nifty, we can now observe a beautiful hammer formation . So, here we are expecting to witness a bounce back in Nifty, Today .
Furthermore, it is being expected that as of now Nifty will continue to make a platform in between its range of 19800-19550.
So, for now with the stop loss of 19550, continue Rebalancing your Portfolio and keep following the Cherry Picking Strategy.
Regards,
Alok Daiya
SEBI Registered Research Analyst
25 Jul ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty - Starting to Breakdown?Nifty had a decent recovery between 13.35 to 14.55 where it gained back 89pts ~ 0.46% after it fell 96pts ~ 0.49% from the open. The moves were exactly similar to the financial service index - because it was caused by the FinNifty components. This casts the doubt that it could be an expiry related move rather than a natural pullback.
For better clarity we would need to wait for tomorrow’s trade. Ideally Nifty was poised to continue the falling chat pattern as confirmed by the diverging moving average slope. I almost thought 19600 will get taken out for good today, but that's exactly the area from which it reversed and gained up all the lost points.
It will be interesting if tomorrow’s trade happens below the 19670 levels which might give the 19707 levels a temporary resistance zone. I still continue to hold the bearish view unless proved wrong by taking out the immediate swing high.
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Morning Mantra - 25th July 2023Dear All,
Just as we had stated yesterday about witnessing a supply pressure from the current levels as a result of the shooting star formation on the weekly chart of Nifty. Likewise the very same was observed in the Market yesterday itself.
For now, the level of 19550 will remain to be the level of support for Nifty. With which, we can continue following the Cherry Picking strategy and Rebalancing of the Portfolio.
Furthermore, now an either side movement of a fresh breakout of above 20000 or a breakdown of 19550 will decide the next move of Nifty.
Till then, Keep Trading, Keep Investing!
Regards,
Alok Daiya
SEBI Registered Research Analyst
Nifty trade plan for 25-07-2023Nifty is not able to pull back & selling pressure is coming on every time it is try to pull back.
Most likely all the early sellers will be trapped by sharp recovery.
Also selling at already discounted price is very risky, lets price get in to premium for a good entry point to short.
24 Jul ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty Bearish trend continuationNifty Analysis
I was quite happy to see the last 45 to 60mts of trade happening in the direction of the trend. For days unknown we used to have dip buyers who come in at 14.30 to 15.00 and then change the dynamics all together.
If you notice we had a good downtrending pattern developing on the 5mts TF. Ever since we broke down from 21st July, bears were able to form a lower low & lower high till now. Whether it replicates on the higher time frames only time will tell.
We had 3 important price actions today
1. Gap down open and then a gap-closing rally till 10.30 wherein we recovered 79pts
2. Leg1 of downfall from 10.40 to 11.55 wherein we shaved off 113pts
3. Leg2 of downfall from 14.05 to close where we lost 118pts
I was quite worried when the market started to recover from 12.00 to 14.00 - because if this swing high goes above the day’s range then I was almost sure the dip buyers will do the rest in the closing hour. Fortunately bears had a good day today, after a long long gap probably. Pushing down the prices on Nifty & Banknifty has been pretty difficult for the last 1 year!
Bearish TrendLine
Ideally the trend line should start from the point where we fell, but with the data so far it's hard to connect the dots. Once the pattern starts building up for a few more days - we will re-draw it with more accuracy.
As it stands if Nifty keeps making lower lows and lower highs then its easy for bears to push down the prices. If we negate that pattern either with a news flow or event or even a reluctance to fall - we will lose the momentum to the bulls! We will continue going short till the swing high is not violated.
Nifty Trade Setup for 24-07-2023
Nifty important intraday levels to watch for 24-07-2023
#Support: 19706
Short if candle closes below
#resistance: 19820
Long if candle closes above
#Targets on downside after break of support.
Target 1= 19600
Target 2= 19480
#Targets on upside after break of resistance.
Target 1= 19880
Target 2= 19980
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Morning Mantra - 24th July 2023Dear All,
Just as we had stated in our last Morning Mantra update on Friday, that since the Index had almost achieved its psychological target of 20000, therefore a little profit booking is expected to be witnessed at the current levels. Likewise, the very same was observed on Friday itself, since after showing a Gap Down opening, we got to see a substantial selling pressure in Nifty.
Well, now we can observe the formation of a Shooting Star pattern on the weekly chart of Nifty. So, a little more supply pressure can be witnessed here from the current levels.
Furthermore, the level of 19550 which earlier was a level of Resistance, will now work as a level of support for the Market.
Besides, since the overall market sentiments is still positive with the stop loss of 19550 . Therefore, can keep following the Cherry picking strategy and can continue Rebalancing your Portfolio, as of now.
Regards,
Alok Daiya
SEBI Registered Research Analyst
Nifty weekly analysis for 24/07/23.Nifty after the IT sector result was dragged 230 points lower losing 1.17% and forming a long upper wick on the weekly charts.
On the daily fibonacci retracement, market took support around 38.2% levels and has respected it quite well. The market are in a bullish move and the retracement is also necesary for another leg.
The bullish trend is technically correct and higher high higher low forming is also going on.
RSI indicator, on the hourly charts, show some weakness in the strenght and there are chances of market retesting 50 to 61.8% fib levels as there is a bearish divergence in the indicator.
The market has closed below 20 EMA, on the hourly charts, and traded whole day below it.
Support :- 19730, 19635, 19570
Resistance :- 19840, 19993(ATH)
A good bull market is going on. This is the 4th leg of the up move and chance are that the market can go for a sideways movemove or a short term bear phase before any up move.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
21 Jul ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty Quite a predictable fall today!Nifty Analysis
If you had read yesterday’s report, I am sure you would have anticipated the gap down today & the profit taking that followed. Today’s price action may not be a structural change or the start of the next bear rally (at least too early to comment). What I feel is, we have out run the fundamentals & need to give some time for it to catch up so that the next peak can be conquered.
We opened gap down at 19798 and tried to close the distance, but had rejection near the 19880 levels. From there we fell strongly till 12.25 with no signs of retracement or reversal. Once the green candle started forming at 12.30, I drew the Fibonacci retracement levels.
I kept yesterday’s close level as 1 and the intraday low formed at 12.25 as 0 - the purpose was to find if we have a continuation in downfall or a reversal to close the gap.
I did share this on nifty minds - see here.
Was this exercise worth it? Absolutely yes.
1. We saw the reversal at 09.25 came at 61.8% retracement level
2. The lower high formed between 13.30 to 14.00 came at 38.2% retracement level
3. The fall that followed and the break of the 0 level creating a new lower low almost gives us a good confidence that the fall in nifty is quite serious.
Trades taken: I did go short as soon as markets opened to catch the moving bus. This was purely a gut decision and nothing to do with positional strategy. At 12.30 as soon as we had the first reversal of the day, I booked the existing short position & rolled down the option to catch more action. This new position was in loss till 14.15 after which we started falling below the low of the day, assessing this situation - I decided to carry forward the position overnight.
Nifty Expiry special trade setup ! Nifty important intraday levels to watch for 20-07-2023
#Support: 19760
Short if candle closes below 19760
#resistance: 19580
Long if candle closes above 19850
#Targets on downside after break of support.
Target 1= 19720
Target 2= 19680
#Targets on upside after break of resistance.
Target 1= 19910
Target 2= 20000
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#NiftyNifty - If the market forms a consolidation pattern between today's low and the Fibonacci level of 78%, then we can expect a rally continuation. On the other hand, if it rejects around the 61% to 78% Fibonacci level, we can expect a correction, with a potential reach towards the Fibonacci levels of 38% to 50%.
Morning Mantra - 21st July 2023Dear All,
Finally yesterday, Nifty had almost achieved its target level of 20000, as it was just missed by 10 points.
As of now the concern is that we are on the top, so here once again cautiousness will be the important tool.
Moreover, since today is the last trading day of the week, so it will be suggested to be stock specific and to keep rebalancing your portfolio.
Furthermore, since the Market is now trading in a new territory, so it is somehow very difficult to predict the next move of Nifty. But since, the Index has almost reached its psychological target of 20000, therefore a little profit booking can be witnessed here at the current levels. So, be cautious.
Regards,
Alok Daiya
SEBI Registered Research Analyst
Hindalco BO of Falling Trendline on WTFNSE:HINDALCO has given a falling trendline bo on weekly chart. one can create a fresh position in hindalco at cmp of 440 or below with a stop loss of 380 for the targets of 500/560/620 in the near term.
Exit the position if the stop loss is triggered on WCB.
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Disclaimer: Content shared is for information and education purposes only and should not be treated as investment or trading advice. Please do your own analysis or take independent professional financial advice before making any investments based on your own personal circumstances. Investment in securities are subject to market risks, please carry out your due diligence before investing. And last but not the least, past performance is not indicative of future returns.
20 Jul ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty, kissing distance of 20000Nifty is up an impressive 526pts ~ 2.71% between the last expiry & today. This is by far the most impressive breakout by Nifty. From the last known resistance level of 18880, nifty is up 6.07% ~ 1142pts in a span of 3 weeks.
Guess what? My analysis went deeply wrong this monday when I exited the long position, I had a neutral call for this week and was expecting a rally by month end. I am not sad that I lost the opportunity cost of unwinding a long position on Nifty, but because my analysis failed to see this possibility.
I was really hoping Nifty will consolidate this week, seeing through the RELIANCE demerger and make its play next week. As we are the apex point, there are no resistances & moving up was the easiest way!
Daily Analysis
Nifty was looking weak in the opening minutes, maybe because of the RELIANCE demerger effect.
During the pre-open period till 09.15, Reliance settled for a price of 945 & we were all shocked. However the real pre-open for Reliance & Jio Financial price discovery was till 10.00 AM and it opened at a price of 2580 which was more or less what the participants were anticipating.
Let us not take the credit out of Nifty50, after 10.00 Nifty made up the lost ground in a quick rally by 10.30. That was only a start. Nifty made an intraday swing of 232pts ~ 1.18% and the momentum was building up!.
In fact it was banknifty that triggered this outperformance today, nifty was quick to catch up on this opportunity & take out its all time highs. The brand new ATH is 19991.85 just 8.15pts for the 20000 milestone.
I stopped my long call when nifty was at 19540, from there we have gone up 450 pts. This is the first time my own analysis went against me, probably I may not get over that anytime soon!
Whats next?
Infosys declared its results and the signs of slowdown are quite evident. We have a situation where the banks are having good results overshadowing the rise in NPAs and ITs having lower than expected profit potential. Even the results from HUL was not looking good prima facie - but I am not quite sure if these factors will stop the bull run on Nifty! Remember markets can remain irrational till you are ….
Nifty - What a Awesome BULL TrendHii all..
Greetings...
Today was a awesome bull trend in nifty, many people missed it as they were bearish. But a simple pattern confirmed today a awesome bull trend.
There were 2 Buying opportunity today, one was at the bottom of the trend and another after breaking the resistance.
Thanking You
Important Things
1. This is only for educational purposes only.
2. Never over trade.
3. Always keep Stop Loss.
4. Trade in limited quantity.
5. Taking a small loss is better than wiping up your whole capital.
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Disclaimer – These ideas shared by me to all are my personal analysis / views. Im not a SEBI registered technical analysis .
Nifty daily analysis for 21/07/23.Nifty almost touched the 20k levels today and has closed near the high. Market are running higher and Bulls are taking on the sellers making it difficult for the option sellers today.
On the hourly charts, the first candle was in red and after that whole day the market rallied upside.
The breakout gave a good target and option premium gained more than 200% gains.
Even during the last hour market kept on going higher without taking a halt and tried to touch the round figure levels.
Support :- 19850, 19730
Resistance :- 20000
The market are in the bull market and no real resistance is there. Fibonacci retracement tool can be considered to find resistance levels.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.