Nifty daily analysis for 29/08/23.Nifty is still forming doji after doji. The market on the daily time frame is still below the moving average and in sideways mood.
On the hourly charts, market tested the support zone and tried to move up but took resistance from the 20 ema and gave a retracement after touch the levels. There is also an evening star pattern there.
Market slow tried to move upper but couldn't give some conviction as there was a rejection from 20 ema (60 minute) and 38.2% levels.
On 15 minute charts, nifty has closed below both the moving averages and is taking support around 19300 levels.
The market are showing some negative sentiments as it is taking resistance from the key levels.
Support :- 19250, 19180, 19000
Resistance :- 19380, 19480
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
Niftyoutlook
Nifty Trade Setup for 28-08-2023nifty important levels to watch are as follows
#Support: 19230
Sell below: 19230 only on 15 minute candle closure below the level.
Target 1: 19160
Target 2: 19075
#Resistance: 19330
Buy Above: 19330 only on 15 minute candle closure Above the level.
Target 1: 19385
Target 2: 19473
#Remember each level will act as a support and resistance individually so there is a probability of reversal on either side. Please do your own research before initiating any trade. Always keep stoploss in order to protect your capital.
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Nifty weekly view for 28/08/23.Nifty on the weekly time frame has given a gravestone doji which shows some negativeity as it is sitting near the support levels of 19250 which has been tested many times. If market starts trading below the support level other supports are far enough to give a nice swing trades.
On the daily time frame, market opened gap down and has formed a doji candle closing 120 points lower. The market is looking somewhat bearish as the weekly candle is.
Market is trading below the 20 ema and has not crossed the previous swing high. The market tried to cross the moving averages by a break away gap buy couldn't sustain it and reversed falling around 200 point form day high.
On the hourly charts, it traded whole day below the moving averages and consolidated near the support zone. Market is consolidating in a range, break out or break down can give nice movement as a long consolidation is going on.
Nifty on close to close basis has been in a range of 250 points as it is respecting 19500 and 19250 levels. Bearish or bullish trend will only be decided once the market starts closing outside the range. Watch for the market close as there will be good targets to hit.
Support :- 19250, 19180, 19000
Resistance :- 19380, 19480
Supports are made near the day close as there can be a gap filling if there is a break down. Swing targets will be around 18880 as the market will retest the previous resistance zone.
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
25 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty - reversal in trend, below wedgeFor the last two days both my predictions have gone wrong. On 23rd Aug I recommended a long but we closed in negative territory. On 24th I recommended a neutral stance, but we went deep red today. On both the occasions, I had mentioned the rationale on why I have taken that decision and how I may react if the market makes a different move.
Today we opened gap down right at the support/resistance zone of 19310 and went down quite strongly in the first candle. From there Nifty made 2 attempts to breach this SR and go up - but failed. We woke up to bad news from the US that FED & its commitment to bring inflation to the 2% band.
What this did to our markets is bring about a reversal in trend. Just the previous day we had a breakout from a falling wedge pattern and Nifty was breaking free to take out the 19700 levels - but this cut short.
This is what I said in yesterday’s report “For tomorrow I wish to change my stance from bullish to bearish. If we trade above the trend line for more than an hour - I wish to go long. And if we fall below 19310 - I wish to go short. Till then prefer to stay neutral.” I took the short position right at the open as my short criteria met. But the position is still not so profitable as the market did not fall further. I was hoping for more than a 1%+ fall today.
I have made a modification to the 1hr TF. The newest addition is the bottom trend line which is almost parallel to the top bearish line. The reason to bring this up is to find out what will happen since the support was breached. Since Nifty was respecting the bottom trend line on 4 previous occasions, I expect it to comply going forward also.
For Monday 28th Aug I wish to change stance from neutral to bearish with a stop loss just above 19310 if it stays there more than an hour. My next strong support comes at 18880 which means the fall could be quite deep.
Nifty daily analysis for 25/08/23.Nifty after a gap up opening gave a selling and closed below the 20 ema and has formed an engulfing candle.
On the hourly charts, after the first hour is came for selling and continued the sell off, closing 57 points lower near the support level and below both the moving averages.
Global market are too trading in negative and if nifty starts trading below 19250 levels there will be a panice selling as it has bounced from that levels and the support is becoming weak.
On 15 minutes chart, the moving averages are close enough and there will be a bearish cross over if there is another sell off.
There are chance of a bearish trend as a fake out has been proved in nifty. Though, banknifty tried to remain in the green but has closed only 17 points higher which is a flat closing.
Support :- 19370, 19260
Resistance :- 19480, 19550
Wait for the price action near the levels before entering the market.
24 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty + weekly analysis - neutralNifty Weekly Analysis
Between the last expiry and today, Nifty has just gone up by 32pts ~ 0.17%. But this week has seen a wide swing of 332pts ~ 1.72% i.e from the low of the week to the high of the week. The drama mostly in today’s price action which we will be discussing shortly.
Nifty Daily Analysis
Today’s price action was action filled with drama right from the start. A mega gap up open of 94pts ~ 0.49% and then a steady climb of another 47pts to hit the HOD @ 19584. And from there a totally unexpected reversal that brought Nifty back to the falling wedge pattern.
The gap up was expected mainly because of the breakout we saw in banknifty (which had exited the falling wedge pattern) + the good handouts from the global markets. India also landed Chandraayan on the Moon which would have built the euphoric levels.
From the report yesterday, I advised to go long and personally I took the long position as soon as we opened. The further upmoves reinforced my decision. But the reversal started happening, I had to buy some PUTs to save my long CALLs. I was hoping the pullback will not close the gap - the real surprise came when it went below the falling wedge pattern - more or less negating the gap-up & breakout possibilities.
On the 1hr TF you can notice the magnitude of the gap we had and the intensity of the shorts that followed. The momentum was so deep to pierce through the bearish trendline (blue color) with so much ease. Another 60+ points fall would have forced me to go short today. For tomorrow I wish to change my stance from bullish to bearish. If we trade above the trend line for more than an hour - I wish to go long. And if we fall below 19310 - I wish to go short. Till then prefer to stay neutral.
Expiry Special Analysis NIfty Intraday levels || Hero & Zero dayGood Morning Everyone,
First of all Being an Indian i want to congratulate all the Indians that CHANDRAYAN-3 GOT SUCCESSFULLY LANDED ON CHANDAMAMA (MOON) Guy's, we have done what is very difficult for many countries to even think. Really a great job done by our ISRO Scientist team, they are really a Real Super Heros in actually for our country, they just made us proudful. Now we are the 4th country who has done this miracle. Guy's there is a saying NEVER GIVE UP, and India is the example for that, after the failure of Chandrayan-2, Our scientist has done well and they have made a huge come back, this is really a Grand Success for them. Sorry guy's this has been little lengthy in writing all this but i really want to Motivate the Traders and Investors that NEVER GIVE UP, keep learning and practicing the things, Success is on the way, your time is coming guy's.
Now let's focus on Nifty levels and Today's expiry day Analysis:-
Guy's i have analysis of daily time frame and i found a Dogi candle on daily timeframe. I think from here if nifty goes past and holds above 19500, then it can move towards 19650 but in case of a fall, then we will see another round of selling pressure in NIfty. Yesterday Nifty has not done well as compare to other indices specially banknifty, After opening higher at 19439, Nifty gave up all the gains in early in morning and made low at 19366 and then after doing some time pass over there it has come again up and did not survived above 19450. i had told you guy's in last day nifty analysis that nifty is trading in a range (19450-19379) and we have seen same volatility in yesterday sessions. Alright guy's Now we have to watch 19500 levels, if that got breakout successfully then 19650 will coming soon.
Important levels for Nifty:-
Support zone 19350-19370
Resistance zone 19450-19470
Best buy will be when nifty cross above 19475 and sustains at least for 30 mints.
Targets we can see in upside 19555/19602+
Keep stop loss at 19425
Best sale levels will be, once nifty breaks 19360 and sustains at least for 30 mints.
Targets we can see in downside 19299/19242-
Keep stop loss at 19425
Note:- Hero Zero Trade will be in 2nd half somewhere 1:15pm. So, we will update in afternoon according to price action, so stick with us and follow us to get notity at right time. Till then enjoy but don't overtrade and Always wait for the best entry or levels to execute trades. And always follow strict stop loss to save your capital from unexpected market direction.
Disclaimer:- Please always do your own analysis or consult with your financial advisor before taking any kind of trades.
Dear traders, If you like my work then do not forget to hit like and follow me, and guy's let me know what do you think about this idea in comment box, i would be love to reply all of you guy's.
Thankyou.
23 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty - India Lands on Moon 🌒🌓🌕Nifty also closed in the green today but did not have as much momentum as BankNifty today. The first divergence happened in the opening 1 hr where Nifty gave up 0.43% ~ 83pts even after having a gap-up opening. The real reasons for a gap-up opening was not clear as the Global hand-out was not that positive.
Traders including me were looking for breakdown possibilities as the 5mts candles at 09.15, 09.25 and 09.50 had so much force. Since Banknifty started reversing the trend and was showing a breakout possibility, I did not adventure getting into shorts on Nifty50.
Once the momentum was set by the breakout on BN, Nifty also caught up to it. There were still many sectors in red - Auto, Commodities, Consumption, Energy, FMCG, Pharma & Metal. This indicated that the rally in Nifty will not be as powerful as BankNifty.
The reason I drew 2 bearish trend lines yesterday makes more sense today. If we go by the orange line - it means we already had a falling wedge breakout. If we go by the blue - we are yet to break it.
Tomorrow’s opening minutes will give us the exact answer to that question. Personally I feel we are yet to break out and the blue line is more accurate. To have a real breakout, almost all the sub-sectors also has to be in green.
Since Banknifty has already broken out, the probability has shifted into a similar trade direction for Nifty as well. I wish to change my stance from neutral to bullish for tomorrow. If the breakout fails or we hit the 19310 level tomorrow, I might have to fall back.
Nifty Intraday Levels 23/Aug/23Good Morning Traders, Guy's yesterday Markets traded range bound and ended almost unchanged amid mixed cues. After the marginal uptick, the Nifty oscillated in a narrow band and finally settled around the day's low to close at 19396.45 levels. (FII) sold shares Rs. 495.17 crore, whereas (DII) Purchased Rs. 533.75 crore worth of stocks on yesterday session. On the technical front, the market is witnessing a non directional activity on the higher side and finding resistance near 19450, while on the lower side the index is regularly taking support near 19375. Any fresh uptrend is possible only after the breakout of 19450, and then nifty could rally til 19500-19550+, On the lower side breakdown of 19375, can take nifty towards 19300-19250 levels.
Important Levels for Nifty-
Support zone 19355-19375
Resistance zone 19430-19450
Buy above 19450, if levels sustains at least for 30 mints
Targets we can see in upside 19524/19603
Keep stop loss at 19369
Sale below 19369, if levels sustains at least for 30 mints
Targets we can see in downside 19299/19242
Keep stop loss at 19450
Note:- Always wait for the best entry or levels to execute trades. And always follow strict stop loss to save your capital from unexpected market direction.
Disclaimer:- Please always do your own analysis or consult with your financial advisor before taking any kind of trades.
Dear traders, If you like my work then do not forget to hit like and follow me, and guy's let me know what do you think about this idea in comment box, i would be love to reply all of you guy's.
Thankyou.
Morning Mantra - 23rd August 2023Dear All,
So the consolidation is still continued in the Market and in such a situation it becomes quite difficult to predict the next move.
However, we still have the hope of 19300 as the level of support, while on the other side 19550 as the strong resistance level.
Therefore, Cherry Picking and Portfolio Rebalancing are the only ways to sustain in such kind of a Market, as of now.
Furthermore, over the last 2 days on the weekly chart of Nifty, we have observed a very impactful positive chart setup, while on the Day chart we can once again witness a Doji Formation.
So, with fingers crossed we are hoping for the best.
Regards,
Alok Daiya
SEBI Registered Research Analyst
22 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty - stance remains NEUTRALYesterday we had a neutral stance for Nifty and a bearish stance for BankNifty. If you were watching every 5mts candle today, you wouldn't believe how we ended up getting Nifty at +0.01% and BankNifty down 8.75pts.
Nifty makes a beautiful rounded top formation today, will wait for tomorrow to see if we get the cup & handle formation. As soon as the day started it was pretty clear that we will not have any major movements today. The reason being absolutely low options premium on FinNifty which had expiries today.
Usually Finnifty (which is quite liquid these days) shows some excitement in options premium if a directional trend exists. And since it sucks out the liquidity from banknifty and nifty - we see jumps in their premiums as well (OTM). Since those jumps were not there today, we assumed it was going to be a flat day.
Well the data did not disappoint - we did have a flat day, but the price action was nothing as expected. Never ever thought we will get a rounded top formation.
If we look at the 1hr TF - we are still inside the falling wedge pattern. I just drew one more descending channel (orange color), the rationale being a few gaps in the prior session. See the blue circled regions, nifty failed to reach till the original trend line (blue color) in those instances. Do not worry, we will decide which one to keep by this Friday.
I am continuing my neutral stance for Nifty50 for tomorrow. If we fall below 19260 tomorrow, I will go bearish. If we take out the 19460 levels - I will go bullish.
FASP levels for Nifty 22/08/2023The FASP for Nifty is listed for 22-08-2023. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities.
What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)?
It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds.
Validity of the levels: 1 Day
How to use these levels?
The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options.
Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area
Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
21 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty - stance corrected to neutralOn our last day’s report we discussed the possibility of Nifty staying above the 19309 levels. It was with great difficulty that we got a closing below 19309 on Friday, today we opened right there and then had a good rally till 19370 levels.
Immediately we started reversing and fell below water by 10.10. The price action is similar to the 14.00 to 15.00 period. The change in stance did not come in the opening 1hr candle, thats because we did not have a perfect candle outside of the resistance line.
From 10.15 - the path that Nifty took was magical, we rose 129pts ~ 0.67% from the day’s low to high with no real pullback till 15.00. The 2nd hourly candle gave the change in stance signal i.e from bearish to neutral.
On the 1hr TF, Nifty is back in the falling wedge pattern (which is a bullish case). We need to wait for a perfect bullish signal - once we reach the convergence of the descending trendline and the horizontal support, it should break out.
Bears have a case if they can bring down the prices below 19309 again and keep it there for another 1 to 2 days. My stance for tomorrow stands corrected to neutral from bearish.
Nifty Tradesetup for 21-08-2023nifty important levels to watch are as follows
#Support: 19260
Sell below: 19260 only on 15 minute candle closure below the level.
Target 1: 19190
Target 2: 19110
#Resistance: 19380
Buy Above: 19380 only on 15 minute candle closure Above the level.
Target 1: 19480
Target 2: 19560
#Remember each level will act as a support and resistance individually so there is a probability of reversal on either side. Please do your own research before initiating any trade. Always keep stoploss in order to protect your capital.
Follow us for more such information and educational ideas. Give it a like if you appreciate the idea. Queries will be answered in comment section.
Morning Mantra - 21st August 2023Dear All,
As we had observed a Doji formation on the Day chart of Nifty on the last Friday. Likewise, fortunately we had witnessed a closing of above 19300 on Friday itself.
However, overall the situation is still quite crucial as of now, since Nifty is finding difficulty and is not being able to reach and sustain above the level 19550. Therefore, in such a situation it is being very difficult to predict about the next move of the Market, as of now. But still we have the 2 important levels to consider, i.e., 19300 and 19550 on the upper side.
Moreover, just as we had stated on the last Friday as well, similarly there’s a probability to witness some panic in the Market if in case Nifty breaks the level of 19300 on closing basis.
So, in such a situation, following the Cherry Picking strategy will be a good idea here, also it will be better to keep Rebalancing the portfolio .
Furthermore, for those who had already been rebalancing their portfolios at around the 20000 level, they can be suggested to partially accumulate in the Market following the Cherry Picking strategy as of now.
Keep Trading!
Keep Investing!
Regards,
Alok Daiya
SEBI Registered Research Analyst
Case Study of Nifty with Elliott Wave ProspectiveHello Friends,
Welcome to our Case Study of Nifty with Elliott Wave Prospective.
In this analysis, we'll be taking a closer look at the Nifty index using a powerful tool called Elliott Wave theory. Think of Elliott Wave as a way to uncover hidden patterns in the market's movement, a bit like solving a puzzle.
Imagine you're on a journey to understand where the Nifty index might be headed next. We'll be using the Elliott Wave lens to interpret the price movements and potential trends. This isn't about predicting the future with a crystal ball – it's about using historical patterns to make informed guesses about what could happen.
Throughout this case study, we'll dive deep into Nifty's recent price action and explore how it aligns with Elliott Wave principles. We'll be looking for waves and patterns that have appeared before and could repeat themselves. These waves might give us hints about potential ups and downs in Nifty's journey.
Remember, the market can surprise us, and there are no guarantees. This analysis is like a compass guiding us based on the historical behaviors we've observed in the past. It's always important to consider other factors too, like news and events.
By the end of this case study, you'll have a better grasp of how Elliott Wave analysis works and how it can provide insights into Nifty's future moves. So, let's jump into the Analysis video study of Nifty and Elliott Wave together and uncover the prospective paths it might take.
I am not Sebi registered analyst. My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing. I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else.
However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business.
If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...!
Hope this post is helpful to community
Thanks
RK💕
Disclaimer and Risk Warning.
The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing
FASP levels for Nifty 21/08/2023The FASP for Nifty is listed for 21-08-2023. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities.
What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)?
It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds.
Validity of the levels: 1 Day
How to use these levels?
The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options.
Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area
Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
Change in trend - 3 black crowsAnalyze the time frame:
Monthly : Candle engulfing
Weekly: Black Crows
Daily: Lower lows and lower highs are formation
1. Closed below 19375, implying negative
sentiment.
2. Exit the regression channel
3. A decrease in relative strength.
The triggering factor is,
1. 33/50 stock decrease.
2. The banking industry is the most
affected.
Moving forward,
1. The anchor candle would be critical; we could see some sideways movement, and it is expected to act as support.
2. If the nifty closes below 18600 in the following 3-4 weeks, it will be considered bearish.
To summarize, a sideways moment is likely to occur ; however, there is no need to worry; a closure below 18600 will be the price to ACT
Morning Mantra - 18th August 2023Dear All,
Just as we had stated in our Previous Morning Mantra update about our expectation on Nifty creating some cautiousness in the Market. Likewise the same was witnessed yesterday itself. As after a flat to negative opening, the Market showed us a further decline in its levels.
Moreover, today is the last trading day of the week. Besides, on the weekly chart, we can now observe a Doji formation.
Wherein, as per our expectation, it will somehow be better to witness the same flat closing today as well. As it can show us a positive reversal in the upcoming days.
While on the other hand, if in case Nifty gives a closing of below 19300, then we will have to work on our Portfolio as thereafter we can get to witness some further panic in the Market.
Same in the case of BankNifty, as even here we can observe a Doji formation on the Day chart. Where, on the positive side, the Index didn’t break through its support level of 43800 on closing basis, yesterday. So, the levels of 44444 and 43800 will remain to be the important levels for BankNifty, as of now.
Keep Trading!
Keep Investing!
Regards,
Alok Daiya
SEBI Registered Research Analyst
17 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty - Bears are still fighting 🐻🐻Nifty Weekly Analysis
We have fallen 201pts ~ 1.03% between the last expiry and today. If you notice the chart below, Nifty is closely following the bearish trend line and we will get a range convergence soon. If the support line of 19309 is not breaking - we will have a bullish reversal. Global macros, India inflation data and other sentiments are pointing for a bearish case though. What will Nifty do?
Nifty Daily Analysis
I was very much impressed with today’s price action by Nifty. If you notice the trades we had yesterday - it was much contrary to what traders were anticipating. Today we just negated those moves.
You might remember the 15.00 candle that went up 45 pts yesterday - it really made no sense. I was thoroughly looking for any events to find out why we had a surge yesterday, but today’s reversal and negation brings back sanity.
We had 2 legs for the fall today, the first leg a fall of 83pts till 10.00 and then the second leg of 89pts between 11.05 to 13.00. The options flow did indicate we would have a bear day today, but I seriously thought the 19309 support line may get broken.
RELIANCE, ITC, HDFCBK, LT, KOTAKBK, BAJFINANCE were the main losers today and TITAN, ADANIENT, SBIN the main winners. The market depth favored the bears too with 33/50 in red.
Finally this is what we have now, the pressure mounting on Nifty50 to breakout or breakdown. Technical Analysis points to a breakout and the Fundamental Analysis hinting at a breakdown due to poor macros. Today’s 99pts fall is giving some hope to the otherwise beaten bears - their first priority tomorrow would be to take out the 19309 support to gather immense downside momentum. I am changing my stance from neutral to 60% bearish & 40% neutral for tomorrow.
If you have any questions - please comment below