16 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty - Are the bears still alive?Last session we discussed the support level of 19311, this came into play today and proved quite hard to breach. Today’s intraday low 19317 was hit in the first candle itself after a gap down opening.
The biggest negative news to start the day was the higher than expected 7.44% CPI inflation that came after market hours on 14th Aug.
Also the SPX and NDQ also closed lower than 1.16 to 1.1% - this also should have influenced the gap down today. The data that came from China - was bad and a leading indicator to what a deflationary, illiquid & rising unemployment looks like. I personally felt we might breach the support and close lower than 19146 today. But the resilience and perseverance shown by the dip buyers (bulls) were phenomenal.
We rallied back 163pts ~ 0.85% to close the day in green. Pretty much frustrating if you are a bear. This market is quite hard to crack. The rally also ensured we went above the swing high of last session showing further positiveness.
If we look at the 1hr TF - the double bottom @ 19311 stands strong, and the bearish trend line is converging. Till date the tops Nifty has made has respected the trend line - this could also mean the falling wedge pattern could hold true. If yes - its a bullish pattern and we could have a trend reversal soon.
The only way bears can regain control is to break the support of 19311 immediately, preferably tomorrow 17th Aug. Seriously I was screening the news to find out why Nifty rallied even in spite of bad news - one event I saw was the “CABINET APPROVES 63000 CR RUPEES FOR EV BUSES SCHEME” tweet. But seriously building an industry on subsidy & incentive is syphoning out tax payer money & destructive to existing industries.
I am revising my stance from bearish to neutral, will shift to bearish if 19311 breaks tomorrow for good.
Niftyoutlook
FASP levels for Nifty 17/08/2023The FASP for Nifty is listed for 17-08-2023. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities.
What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)?
It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds.
Validity of the levels: 1 Day
How to use these levels?
The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options.
Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area
Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
Nifty Tradesetup for 16-08-2023Nifty important Intraday levels to watch are as follows
#Support: 19400
Sell below:19400 only on 15 minute candle closure below the level.
Target 1: 19350
Target 2: 19287
Target 3: 19210
#Resistance: 19480
Buy Above: 19480 only on 15 minute candle closure Above the level.
Target 1: 19560
Target 2: 19640
#Demand Zone: 19290-19310 may act as a immediate buying zone, and price may bounce from the region marked in green on the chart.
#Supply Zone: 19455-19480 may act as an immediate selling zone, and price may reject from the region marked in red on the chart.
#Remember each level will act as a support and resistance individually so there is a probability of reversal on either side. Please do your own research before initiating any trade. Always keep stoploss in order to protect your capital.
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FASP levels for Nifty 16/08/2023The FASP for Nifty is listed for 16-08-2023. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities.
What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)?
It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds.
Validity of the levels: 1 Day
How to use these levels?
The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options.
Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area
Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
Nifty Analysis 15-08-2023 Nifty is making lower low in smaller time frame.
Major trend is bullish, smaller trend is bearish.
Market is getting into a retracement
If nothing makes sense, then wait patiently to hit hard when trend change in smaller TF as well.
Do not trade random, wait for price to come to your level to have most favorable risk to reward trade set up.
Morning Mantra - 14th August 2023Dear All,
First of all, wish you all a very Happy Independence Week and a Week of Financial Azadi.
Furthermore, we are expecting that for this trading week as well we can witness a sideways momentum in the Market. So, we will have to wait and watch for a clear cut indication, i.e., either a breakout of above 19550 or a breakdown of below 19300.
Most probably this week can be a crucial one for the Market, as due to a holiday on the 15th of August, this week consists of 4 Trading Days only.
So, as of now, it is better to keep Rebalancing the Portfolio and keep following the Cherry Picking strategy, as even in the previous week we had got to observe a lot of stock specific momentum in the Market.
Keep Investing!
Keep Trading!
Regards ,
Alok Daiya
SEBI Registered Research Analyst
FASP levels for Nifty 14/08/2023The FASP for Nifty is listed for 14-08-2023. You can add this levels to your trade setup for better results. This should not be the only indicator but an additional tool to increase your winning possibilities.
What is Fibolysis Anchor SupRes Points(FASP)?
It is a unique level arrived by using Fibonacci Retracement , Fibonacci Extension , Standard Pivot levels under various Timeframes. It is an extensively analyzed level to draw the support and resistance levels for the next day. You can use these levels along with your trade setup to increase your winning odds.
Validity of the levels: 1 Day
How to use these levels?
The three levels on both sides are usually easily achievable. The Targets above are bit difficult to achieve in a single trading session. I use this fact to write intraday positions and to buy options.
Color Coding: Green is regular support and buying area, Red is strong exit area
Disclaimer: This is shared in the interest of educational purpose and for knowledge enhancement. Kindly refer it in the same light. I am not responsible for any profits or loss incurred based on this information.
nifty TradeSetup For 11-08-2023Nifty important Intraday levels to watch are as follows
Expectations: Trending day
#Support: 19520
Sell below: 19520 only on 15 minute candle closure below the level. agressive sell below demand zone.
Target 1: 19470
Target 2: 19380
#Resistance: 19560
Buy Above: 19560 only on 15 minute candle closure Above the level
Target 1: 19630
Target 2: 19690
#Demand Zone: 19470-19490 may act as a buying zone and price may bounce from the region marked in green on the chart.
#Remember each level will act as a support and resistance individually so there is a probability of reversal on either side. Please do your own research before initiating any trade. Always keep stoploss in order to protect your capital.
Follow us for more such information and educational ideas. Give it a like if you appreciate the idea. Queries will be answered in comment section.
Morning Mantra - 11th August 2023Dear All,
Yesterday we had got to witness a minute closing of near 19550, i.e., at 19543.10
Therefore, overall we can see that the Market is currently trading in a consolidation phase. Where it is better to wait for a clear cut indication, as of now.
Furthermore, we had also witnessed a selling pressure in most of the stocks yesterday. So, with the support of 19300, we can take this downfall as an opportunity for the upcoming days.
Keep Trading!
Keep Investing!
Regards,
Alok Daiya
SEBI Registered Research Analyst
10 Aug ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty + weekly expiry analysisNifty Weekly Analysis
Between the last expiry day and today, Nifty has managed to rise 152pts ~ 0.78% which is a good sign for the bulls. This flattish phase was much required after Nifty picked up a direction from 21st July. The technical analysis points to a trend continuation possibility and should be good for the bears!
Nifty Today Analysis
Today’s move was very much influenced by the RBI MPC decision on Repo rate & Cash reserve ratio. We will discuss that in detail as part of banknifty’s analysis (below). If you recollect yesterday we had an unusual spike in the last 1 hour & most of the traders including me were not expecting that.
What happened today was to negate that move in the opening 1hr. I assume many traders would have taken the stop loss hits both times (1 yesterday and 1 today). After the 1st hour move - nifty did not really go anywhere. If you notice the chart above the price levels at 14.30 yesterday & the close today is the same.
The 100pts in the last 1hr yesterday and the 128pts between 10.20 to 10.40 today was just a roller coaster ride for thrills. The OTM options premiums were reflecting this perfectly - neither did we have a major spike yesterday nor today. So the big boys were quite expecting this.
The 1hr chart shows how nifty has managed to close right at the trend line today. If we have a gap down opening tomorrow - the bears will feel confident to push down the prices further. The first target to take out would be the 19300 levels.
On the other hand if we have a gap-up opening, the bulls will have to take control to breach the 19690 levels which will negate the lower-high formation. My stance is 80% bearish and 20% neutral for tomorrow.
Nifty Intraday TradeSetup for 10-08-2023Nifty important Intraday levels to watch are as follows
Expectations: Volatile day
#Support: 19540
Sell below: 19540 only on 15 minute candle closure below the level. agressive sell below demand zone.
Target 1: 19450
Target 2: 19320
#Resistance: 19640
Buy Above: 19640 only on 15 minute candle closure Above the level. agressive buy above supply zone.
Target 1: 19690
Target 2: 19780
#Demand Zone: 19450-19480 may act as a buying zone and price may bounce from the region marked in green on the chart.
#Supply Zone: 19765-19745 may act as a selling zone and price may reject from the region marked in red on the chart.
#Remember each level will act as a support and resistance individually so there is a probability of reversal on either side. Please do your own research before initiating any trade. Always keep stoploss in order to protect your capital.
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Morning Mantra - 10th August 2023Dear All,
So finally we have observed the impact of witnessing a closing of above 19550 for 2 consecutive days, just as it was stated. As after those 2 days, Nifty has ultimately given us a positive closing of approx 19632.55 yesterday.
Altogether, the Market is currently in a very choppy mode. Where we can clearly observe the stock specific momentum, which is also due to the ongoing Result season.
So, as per the current scenario, we have to keep a track on the important levels of 19300-19550-19800.
Where, since Nifty is currently trading above the level of 19550, so we can expect it to move towards the level 19800 with the support of 19550 on closing basis. On the other hand, a closing below 19550, will activate the level of 19300 once again.
Therefore, in the meanwhile, be stock specific and keep following the Cherry Picking strategy.
Keep Trading!
Keep Investing!
Regards ,
Alok Daiya
SEBI Registered Research Analyst