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Niftypostmortem

17 Jan ’24 — How the Mighty has fallen! HDFCBK takes down N50 ⬇️Nifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ Recap from yesterday “We would like to give one more opportunity for Nifty to hold its ground. We would start the day tomorrow with a neutral bias and wait for Nifty to fall below 21913 to go bearish.” 4mts chart Not only did Nifty50 open 360pts gap-down, but it broke the 21913 support. This was the laxman rekha for us below which we had to go bearish. It all started when HDFCBK -8.44% started giving up points like crazy. The results announced were alright per se, but the signs of NPA going up and EPS staying the same would have unnerved the FIIs. Nifty ended up losing another 100pts to close at -2.09%. When was the last time you saw a 2% or more fall in Nifty50. Even when SPX and NDQ had multiple episodes of 2%+ falls, Nifty50 was showcasing its resilience. 63mts chart Yesterday Nifty was at the top end of the ascending channel and today it closed right at the bottom end. From 26th Oct 2023, Nifty has always respected the bottom part of the ascending channel. The next support comes up at 21491 and falling below that would also mean we are breaking the channel. We changed the stance from neutral to bearish in the opening minutes, hope you got the email via TradingView minds when we pivoted.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
16 Jan ’24 — Nifty Tests the Ascending Channel Today - stance ➡️Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “Remember how things were looking weak on the 8th and 10th of Jan and how Nifty turned from there? For tomorrow, the bullish stance continues and the first support will be the ascending channel top-line ~ 22050 levels.” 4mts chart Nifty hit a new top of 22124 today and just when everything was going in its favor, it started falling. Most analysts will blame the NiftyIT sector (-1.28%) for the fall today - they are not wrong but it is not just because of IT. The majority of the Nifty sub-sectors were down today, Realty (-1.66%), Pharma (-1.14%), Energy (-0.75%), Service (-0.52%). Very few sectors were in green today - Metal, Media, Consumer Durables, PSU banks, etc. When the majority of sectors are against the primary direction (bullish), it may end up becoming a top-like formation. We discussed yesterday how the Ascending Channel will act like support, on the 4mts TF we got a breach today. 22050 was our laxman rekha but we ended up hitting 21969. 63mts chart The channel top is not breached in the higher TF, just because of this we are not changing the stance from bullish to bearish. We would like to give one more opportunity for Nifty to hold its ground. We would start the day tomorrow with a neutral bias and wait for Nifty to fall below 21913 to go bearish.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
15 Jan ’24 — Bullish reinforcements are on the way! Nifty50Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday: “Till yesterday, we were looking for neutral trades with a possibility of going down. See how the tables have turned today. For Monday — we need to look out for bullish opportunities now.” 4mts chart Another gap-up of 131pts ~ 0.6% today! It was required to break the channel resistance line. There was a minor fall, but the 22000 level provided early support and we kept the gap unclosed. Once Nifty50 found its balance, it rallied steadily for the day and closed near the highs. The new ATH is 22111. 63mts chart The break away from the channel is evident in the 63mts chart. See the points Nifty is climbing every time it gets a stance upgrade from neutral to bullish. Remember how things were looking weak on the 8th and 10th of Jan and how Nifty turned from there? For tomorrow, the bullish stance continues and the first support will be the ascending channel top-line ~ 22050 levels.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
12 Jan ’24 — Traders are cold-blooded, Bias changed to Bullish🐂Nifty Analysis - Stance Bullish ⬆️ Recap from yesterday “Nifty looks perfectly neutral from here, the moment the support of 21491 gives away — we can start looking for bearish opportunities. To go bullish the ATH has to be taken out. With the IT majors TCS and INFY declaring the results — we should have a strong swing direction tomorrow.” 4mts chart link Major highlights today Gap-up of 120pts ~ 0..56% NiftyIT gains 5.14% Nifty50 takes out the ATH, new value = 21928 Nifty goes from neutral to bullish Today’s stop came right at the ascending channel top-line Never seen NiftyIT so stubborn to go up, a gain of 5.14% far exceeds expectations, and that too when the IT majors are at their all-time highs. What we still do not understand is the reason for outperformance when the results were average. Anyway, this was the major reason Nifty50 broke out from the neutral zone to the bullish zone. 63mts chart link Today’s price action was along the top trend line of the ascending channel, and careful enough not to break it. There is no shame in saying traders are cold-blooded. We cannot stick with our bias, direction, or opinions and expect the market to behave as per our analysis. If the markets have turned, we need to adapt. Till yesterday, we were looking for neutral trades with a possibility of going down. See how the tables have turned today. For Monday - we need to look out for bullish opportunities now.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
11 Jan ’24 — Gap-up spoils the market dynamics, Nifty PostMortemNifty Weekly Analysis The close we had on 4th Jan was 21669.6, the close today is 21669.4. Nifty moved -0.2pts this expiry. Unbelievably flat! Would have been a dream come true for traders who took home short iron fly & short straddle last week. 16mts chart link Nifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday “The last candle which is strongly GREEN is standing out. It looks like the 21491 support is respected for now. If we fall below that tomorrow, we will not hesitate to switch back the stance to bearish.” 4mts chart link See how the gap-up changed the dynamics today. Firstly, there was nothing special to have a gap-up of 68pts. Secondly, this got sold into but the selling was not aggressive enough to bring down the markets lower than yesterday’s close. The price move from 14.03 to 14.11 where we got a fall of 75pts looked like a warning shot. Surprisingly there was someone at the other end, buying all of those dips. Despite those swings, the options premium were all dead and good for nothing. Far OTM sellers would have fell asleep watching the charts today. 63mts chart link Nifty looks perfectly neutral from here, the moment the support of 21491 gives away - we can start looking for bearish opportunities. To go bullish the ATH has to be taken out. With the IT majors TCS and INFY declaring the results - we should have a strong swing direction tomorrow. Our stance stays neutral.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
10 Jan ’24 — 163pts pullback from a wedge - Nifty50 goes neutralNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday “Interesting price action formed at the current levels. Seems like where we are right now is a crucial support/resistance zone that could decide the next trend. Our call of bearishness will continue until N50 can break through the channel top line.” 4mts chart link Even without breaking the upper trend line, we had to change the stance from bearish to neutral today. The ball was in bear’s court today and they did not score. A small falling wedge pattern created a short squeeze that took N50 161pts ~ 0.75% higher. Credits to RELIANCE that contributed to ~ 40pts today. Momentum is everything in a trend, we will wait and watch how Nifty50 reacts to the expiry day tomorrow. 63mts chart link The last candle which is strongly is GREEN is standing out. Looks like the 21491 support is respected for now. If we fall below that tomorrow, we will not hesitate to switch back the stance to bearish. What the dominant animal is tomorrow - bear or bull is totally dependent on the opening 15mts.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
09 Jan ’24 — For a moment we thought the bearish had vanishedNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ Recap from yesterday: “The breach of the upper trend line of the ascending channel is quite visible in the higher time frame. Ideally, it is not a pure bearish signal as we are technically still in the bull market. We are changing the stance to bearish from neutral for the ultra-short-term only. If Nifty50 manages to crawl back up the top line — we will have to reverse the stance to neutral.” 4mts chart link Why did we really gap-up 144pts today? Was it because of the US markets which closed in strong green yesterday? Seriously we do not see any other reason and what it did was to scare the bears. The bears who had shorted 21500, 21600, and 21700 CE were on their toes today, shocked by the gap-up followed by a rising price action till 12.35. The real deal was to watch the top line of the channel - N50 did not have enough power to surpass it and the longer it stood there, it was easier for the bears to regain control. We then fell a whopping 205pts ~ 0.95%. Even though we did not close in the RED, the price action in the afternoon rhymed with yesterday's bearish call. 63mts chart link Interesting price action formed at the current levels. Seems like where we are right now is a crucial support/resistance zone that could decide the next trend. Our call of bearishness will continue until N50 can break through the channel top line.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
08 Jan ’24 — Nifty Breaks the Trendline This Time — PostMortemNifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ Recap from yesterday: “Our stance is still neutral with equal possibilities in either direction. Since Nifty50 is following the ascending channel’s top trend line — the chances of going up look more probable. To go down — we need news flow/event as there is no technical weakness.” 4mts chart link The gap up open today and a thrust upwards gave the false impression that we might have an up day. What happened on the contrary was a breach of the trend line. See the circled portions on the chart. At 09.47 the attempt was unsuccessful but at 10.51 the support gave away. Once we breached it, the price action started to pick up momentum. 63mts chart link The breach of the upper trend line of the ascending channel is quite visible in the higher time frame. Ideally, it is not a pure bearish signal as we are technically still in the bull market. We are changing the stance to bearish from neutral for the ultra-short-term only. If Nifty50 manages to crawl back up the top line - we will have to reverse the stance to neutral. In case Nifty manages to fall further - it will be interesting to see how it reacts to the bottom line of the channel.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
05 Jan ’24 —Nifty50 takes support at the trendlineNifty Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from yesterday: “The first thing we had to do was to change the stance from bearish to neutral. To go bullish we need some more momentum, if it comes up in the forenoon session — I will update you via TV minds.” 4mts chart link Two things happened today A gap-up open - which did not make any sense. The rejection from the trend line - that made every sense. We repeated this earlier - our markets may be the only one that frequently opens gap-up or gap-down. The bulk of the action happens outside of the trading hours - seems like we need to grow up & mature. Today’s gap-up did not make any sense, even the opening candle. By 10.35 we lost the steam and started falling. Took a minor pause at 11.15 and then by 13.55 we went underwater. We got a nice rejection right at the trend line between 14.15 to 14.31. We are quite sure that many traders would have thought we might be falling further and that's when the reversal came. It was so intuitive to watch Nifty50 take support at the trendline and retrace the fall. Finally, we ended the day with a gain of 0.24% 63mts chart link Our stance is still neutral with equal possibilities in either direction. Since Nifty50 is following the ascending channel’s top trend line - the chances of going up look more probable. To go down - we need news flow/event as there is no technical weakness.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
04 Jan ’24 — Unexpected reversal takes out my Stop Loss - NiftyNifty Weekly Analysis Between the last expiry and today, Nifty50 has fallen only 99pts ~ 0.46%. Credits to the recovery today that made up 141 of the lost points. N50 also has managed to bounce off the channel top line indicating further signs of strength. 63mts chart link Nifty Today Analysis - Stance Neutral ➡️ Recap from Yesterday: “On the higher time frame, you can see how N50 is just entering the channel. If the conditions stay like this for tomorrow — we can see a good trending move tomorrow. The first threat to keep in mind is the rejection that came on 21st Dec when N50 bounced from the channel topline.” 4mts chart link We were totally shocked to see a gap-up open of 89pts ~ 0.42% followed by a strong intent to go up. Since yesterday, we have been looking for bearish opportunities and what the gap-up open did was to take out the stop loss. Just like the 21st Dec, we got a perfect bounce off from the trend line showing sheer strength. Bears like me got trapped and were running for cover, this made the followthrough rally much easier today. A total swing of 161pts ~ 0.75% for today. And that too when NiftyIT was flashing red and green. BankNifty took the bulk of the weight today. 63mts chart link The first thing we had to do was to change the stance from bearish to neutral. To go bullish we need some more momentum, if it comes up in the forenoon session - I will update you via TV minds. Kindly make sure you are following @viswaram handle to get the updates via email.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
03 Jan ’24 — Nifty gets a stance change, Bears are back!Nifty Analysis - Stance Bearish ⬇️ Recap from yesterday: “The first target for a trend change will be the breach of the ascending channel top line approx 21530 levels. From a technical analysis perspective, we had the 3 black crows at 14.30 yesterday and the first 2 candles today.“ 4mts chart link We got our first target of 21530 hit today and as soon as the channel top line got breached - the stance changed to bearish. Technically Nifty is far ahead of BankNifty as N50 has only broken into the channel whereas BN has broken out. The status change is just because of momentum that is favoring the Bears. Come 2024 and they are back! 4mts chart link NiftyIT deserves a special mention, it fell a whopping 2.59% today. There is severe competition going on between NiftyIT and BankNifty on who wants to become the “leader” in trend reversals. 63mts chart link On the higher time frame, you can see how N50 is just entering the channel. If the conditions stay like this for tomorrow - we can see a good trending move tomorrow. The first threat to keep in mind is the rejection that came on 21st Dec when N50 bounced from the channel topline. Global macros are much worse today and we are hoping tomorrow’s expiry should belong to the bears. Our first target will be 21409 and then 21310.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
02 Jan ’24 — A Breakdown in Progress? 3 black crowsNifty Analysis - Stance: Neutral Recap from yesterday: “The last candle is looking quite deep and has almost negated the progress of 3 days. If it was not related to any news/event, the outcomes match quite strongly for an interim top-like formation.” 4mts chart link - click here The last 30mts action yesterday was not a blip, we got some continuity today. Nifty50 fell 199pts ~ 0.92% intraday to 21555 by 10.39 and then retraced 50% of that fall. The real impact was on BankNifty and not Nifty. Just like we often say, during trend reversals - BankNifty takes the lead and then Nifty50 follows. We did change the stance on BankNifty to bearish today (more on that in a while). Even NiftyIT took some beating today, the positive contributors to Nifty50 were BAJFINANCE, RELIANCE, and ADANIPORTS. In fact, BAJFINANCE was the main reason FinNifty and BankNifty had a variance of 0.46% today. 63mts chart link - click here We would like to maintain the stance on Nifty to neutral itself. The first target for a trend change will be the breach of the ascending channel top line approx 21530 levels. From a technical analysis perspective, we had the 3 black crows at 14.30 yesterday and the first 2 candles today. The last time we had a breakdown i.e. on 20th Dec, Nifty50 took support at the channel top line - so we must breach that now for extra confirmation.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
01 Jan ’24 — Shocking Last 30mts like a Tsunami — Nifty50We have compiled the last 3 months of work into an Amazon Kindle ebook with the title “ 60 Post-Mortems on Nifty & BankNifty Q3 FY23-24 ” - request you to take a look and provide suggestions Nifty Analysis - Stance changed to Neutral Recap from yesterday: “Nifty is still way above the ascending channel showing bullishness. As long as the soft support level of 21652 is respected, we do not wish to change the stance.” 4mts chart link - click here Everything was going as per the plan, we even hit a new all-time high of 21834, but the last 30mts of price action was more severe than a Tsunami. Earlier in the day, was quite disheartened to hear the 7.6 Earthquake in Japan and the Tsunami alert. During those hours even Nikkei 225 futures were trading flat. We were watchful for any spillover effect to our markets but got nothing. BankNifty options flow was suggesting bearishness right from the start, the calls were unusually overpriced vs the puts indicating a higher number of CE credit spreads getting written (bearish). NiftyIT 4 mts chart - click here NiftyIT was trading in RED, so we almost gave up the hope of having a new ATH today. After a while, NiftyIT turned and turned quite big - the reversal was 536pts ~ 1.52% from the day’s low. And when NiftyIT reversed, it gave enough fuel for Nifty50 to take out the recent swing high and reach for new highs today. 63mts chart link - click here The last candle is looking quite deep and has almost negated the progress of 3 days. If it was not related to any news/event, the outcomes match quite strongly for an interim top-like formation. Just for this reason, we are changing the stance from bullish to neutral for tomorrow. We will revisit the stance during trading hours tomorrow, if it was just a blip then we should be having a new ATH tomorrow.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
29 Dec ‘23 - Nifty Still Bullish, A Great Happy Near Year to ALLNifty Analysis - Stance: Bullish Recap from yesterday: “Nifty is definitely on cloud 9, the newfound momentum is intact and almost all the sectorial indices are strong. What next? Is a big question. Just like a goods train, it is difficult to stop the bull run that fast. For tomorrow, I wish to continue my bullish stance with the first support level at 21652.” 4mts chart link - click here It seems the bulls were not in the mood to rally today. We gave up some gains early in the day and at 21683 levels we found a shallow support. We again retested those levels by 14.19 only to reject the fall. Connecting the dots with yesterday’s price action - it appeared to be a neutral day with the trades in a narrow range. What a year Nifty had in 2023, today was the last working day in the calendar year and the first working day of Q4 expiry. 63mts chart link - click here Nifty is still way above the ascending channel showing bullishness. As long as the soft support level of 21652 is respected, we do not wish to change the stance. Meanwhile, we need to be mindful of any global macros that could develop over the weekend as New Year’s usually brings about some odd surprises.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
28th Dec ’23 - New ATH on the last day of the Quarter & MonthNifty Quarterly Analysis Nifty has gained 2263pts ~ 11.6% in the 3rd Quarter of FY2023-24. Almost on 9 particular days, we hit new all-time highs. 1D chart link - click here Nifty Monthly Analysis Surprisingly 70% of the gains for the Q3 came in the December series. We rose 8.21% ~ 1653pts. 8 out of the 9 ATH breaks also came in the Dec series. It really was a December to remember for the bulls. 1D chart link - click here Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Nifty has created another bullish trend line above the ascending channel. The level of euphoria is beyond compare & N50 has managed to give stellar returns this calendar year. Anyway — I will be hoping for a bullish continuation and a new top for tomorrow.” 4mts chart link - click here On the last day of the month and Q3, Nifty makes a new all-time high of 21801. So the magic level of 21800 is conquered. Guessing most of the buying would have been propelled by the FIIs and that too after 14.59. India VIX went over 16% but ended the day at 15.14. I feel like the Bears have lost control of the situation here, not just that they can check the bull runs but are ceding territory far too easily. Investors really love bull markets, their portfolio grows greener day by day. But from a trading perspective, a high level of euphoria is dangerous. The CALL options of the 04 Jan series were trading 25 to 40% higher than usual rates. The collapse of this excess in the last 15mts would have taken many traders by surprise. When we place market orders - we seldom realize the “fair value” of strikes. 63mts chart link- click here Nifty is definitely on cloud 9, the newfound momentum is intact and almost all the sectorial indices are strong. What next? Is a big question. Just like a goods train, it is difficult to stop the bull run that fast. Global markets are also at all-time-high levels and the macros are improving. For tomorrow, I wish to continue my bullish stance with the first support level at 21652.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
27th Dec ’23 - Nifty & BankNifty stance changed to BullishNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “I am forced to change my stance from bearish to neutral as the price action now shows a higher tendency to go up rather than down. Those strong RED candles of 20th Dec still haunt me — but it has failed to gather the momentum of the other bears.” 4mts chart link - click here Nifty got a stance change from bearish to neutral yesterday and look what happened today, once we took out the ATH - the followthrough momentum pumped another 75+ pts. Trading was not profitable for me today even though the charts do not show any visual proof of anomalies. I guess it had more to do with the VIX staying so high that the premiums were not behaving as usual. We had a gap up followed by a steadily rising price to take out the ATH by 12.03. This prompted me to change my stance from neutral to bullish. Then we fell 97pts almost giving me a shock. For a moment I thought my decision to change the stance was a blunder. I got the reassurance only when we had the 2nd leg of the rally that surged 170pts ~ 0.79% to take Nifty to a new ATH of 21675. Later I came to know those solid green candles at 14.59 to 15.07 were resultants of FII buying. 63mts chart link - click here Nifty has created another bullish trend line above the ascending channel. The level of euphoria is beyond compare & N50 has managed to give stellar returns this calendar year. We just have one more day for the monthly, and quarterly expiry. I am not quite sure by what time I will be able to write the report tomorrow as it is my wife’s birthday. Anyway - I will be hoping for a bullish continuation and a new top for tomorrow.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
26th Dec ’23 - Positive Day with a rising VIX - PostMortem NiftyNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Since Monday is a holiday, it gives us added uncertainty on what to expect on Tuesday. Despite the 94pts gain by Nifty — I still see the price action as negative. I would like to go with a bearish stance for 26th Dec.” 4mts chart link - click here Seems like I got the bet wrong, despite weakening geopolitical events - Nifty traded in the positive territory today. Only in the opening 15mts or so we saw a slight tendency to go below water but it was quickly bought into. Nifty rallied 146pts ~ 0.69pts from the LOD to HOD by 12.23. NiftyIT 4mts charts - click here Once it hit the intraday high, the steam eased off and then we started going sideways. NiftyIT has been such a decisive factor for Nifty50 these days. It lost almost 382pts ~ 1.07% and then recovered 492pts ~ 1.4% all in the opening 90mts. The final close was in the RED though (-0.41%). 63mts chart link - click here I am forced to change my stance from bearish to neutral as the price action now shows a higher tendency to go up rather than down. Those strong RED candles of 20th Dec still haunt me - but it has failed to gather the momentum of the other bears. Since it's a holiday week - the FII action may be at a reduced space. Lower liquidity could bring in unusual price spikes - it is best suggested to take your trades with caution.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
22nd Dec ’23 - Nifty’s levels today are skewed by NiftyIT 🚀🚀🚀Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “I am inclined to change my stance to neutral with the developments of today. Giving the bears one more opportunity to prove their mettle, hence going with the bearish stance for tomorrow as well. All they have to do is keep Nifty50 below 21200 in the opening 2hrs for the momentum to kick in” 4mts chart link - click here Nifty’s price action was deceptive today, mainly because of the outperformance by NiftyIT(+2.27%). The real action today happened in BankNifty (-0.73%). Let me try to elaborate. Between 13.59 and 15.03 NiftyIT rallied 799pts ~ 2.29% in a surprising move. This skewed the Nifty50 numbers too. INFY, Wipro, HCL, TCS, and LTIM contributed 44pts out of 94 today. NiftyIT 4mts chart link - click here NiftyIT even though it started negative had a total swing range of 1029pts today. I guess NSE has to consider opening up FnO on NiftyIT seriously and set the expiries on Mondays. After all, we have 6 stocks of Nifty50 in BankNifty. Similarly, we have 6 stocks of Nifty50 in NiftyIT. 63mts chart link - click here. Since Monday is a holiday, it gives us added uncertainty on what to expect on Tuesday. Despite the 94pts gain by Nifty - I still see the price action as negative. I would like to go with a bearish stance for 26th Dec. A gap-up or gap-down possibility cannot be ruled out as we are going for the extended weekend with bad geo-political macros.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
21st Dec ’23 - Nifty50 Retraces 50% of Yesterday’s FallNifty Today Analysis Recap from yesterday: “The price action on the 63mts TF does not look bearish per se. But notice the weight of the RED candles — we retraced right up to the ascending channel top envelope.” 4mts chart link - click here Nifty started the day on a negative note fell to 20976 and then started recovering. The recovery was so strong and convincing that there was no level of hesitation or indecision in between. When the day ended and the price actions were recorded on the chat - it seemed like the domestic institutions came ready with their chest to pump in new buy orders. From a technical analysis perspective, we cannot hope that dip buyers will step in and do the needful. The best I could do was to draw a Fibonacci retracement level. The final close stands at the exact 50% retracement level. The right setting for a bearish continuation should have been below 21211 ~ 38.2% retracement. The main sector that spoiled the bear’s party today was BankNifty. 63mts chart link - click here Nifty50 takes support right at the ascending channel showing the inability of bears to overpower the bulls. I am inclined to change my stance to neutral with the developments of today. Giving the bears one more opportunity to prove their mettle, hence going with the bearish stance for tomorrow as well. All they have to do is keep Nifty50 below 21200 in the opening 2hrs for the momentum to kick in - that may require a gap down of 50+ points. Seeing how the US markets have reacted to their GDP report (strong green) - the only thing that could put them in RED would be some pointers by FED saying “...no rate cuts in 2024”
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
20th Dec ’23 - 500pts Nifty Reversal Day - Stance is Bearish NowNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “After surging past the 20875 levels — N50 is not willing to take the rest. We broke out from the ascending channel, now it has formed a trend line well above that — how do I explain this craziness to someone? For tomorrow the bullish stance continues and the first support level will be 21407.” 4mts chart link - click here The craziness needed no explanation as the excess got shaved off today. Nifty hit a new ATH @ 21593 and then fell a whopping 506pts ~ 2.34% to close at 21101.5. TradingView minds section was not functioning today, and I felt really helpless to inform you when we reversed the stance. Nifty took out the 21407 only by afternoon, but instead of going neutral - I went bearish directly. The reason was - Nifty made a climb of 146 points first and when it fell to 21400 - the fall ended up approx 193pts ~ 0.9%. That did not look like a neutral price action to me and thankfully Nifty fell another 300pts to cement that idea. 63mts chart link - click here The price action on the 63mts TF does not look bearish per se. But notice the weight of the RED candles - we retraced right up to the ascending channel top envelope. The reason for a change in stance to bearish is just because of momentum. I will explain a bit more in the BankNifty Postmortem below.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
1
19th Dec ’23 - Nifty50 adds a NEW ATH to its kitty - 21505Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “I do not wish to change Nifty’s stance — I still prefer to look for long-only trades. However, 21341 would be the laxman rekha for me tomorrow also.” 4mts chart link - click here Nifty does another gap-up today which is sold into falls over 142pts ~ 0.66% to hit an intraday low of 21337 before reversing. Quite interestingly it came to my level of 21341 and I was ready to change my stance - but the reversal came quite fast. Thank God, I didnt pull the trigger. Guess what happened then - we had a healthy rising momentum and we took out the 21500 levels. The new ATH is 21505. After highs were hit - we gave way to profit booking and fell 76pts ~ 0.36% to close the day with just 34pts gains. 63mts chart link - click here Nifty has positively surprised everyone this month. After surging past the 20875 levels - N50 is not willing to take the rest. We broke out from the ascending channel, now it has formed a trend line well above that - how do I explain this craziness to someone? For tomorrow the bullish stance continues and the first support level will be 21407. Meanwhile, the Geo-political developments in the Suez Canal are looking pretty disappointing. It may take a week or two to get the real impact of it. If the ships are rerouting via South Africa - it only means higher supply-chain costs & delays. The first needle to watch maybe will be CrudeOil.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
18th Dec ’23 - Our market takes a pause - Nifty50 PostMortemNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “My stance continues to be bullish with the first support level revised to 21341. All we can do now is trail the stop loss and let the winners run. 4mts chart link - click here Nifty was absolutely trading in a narrow range with minor dips. More action was visible on BankNifty today which nudged me to go for a status change (will discuss this shortly). Nifty opened gap-down - the excess euphoria of Friday got shaved off and then it recovered from the LOD. Interestingly the low of the day was in the opening minutes and we never tested it. Technically 21341 was not tested and no status change is warranted. 63mts chart link - click here There was nothing special in today’s action. Nifty defended its lower side quite neatly. NiftyIT was toggling between red and green. BankNifty was in RED. Nifty Pharma was quite energetic today, but the major point gainers for Nifty were RELIANCE and Bajaj Finance. I do not wish to change Nifty’s stance - I still prefer to look for long-only trades. However, 21341 would be the laxman rekha for me tomorrow also. If we get a closing below that - I would love to go neutral. To go bearish - we need to break below the upper boundary of the ascending channel.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
15th Dec ’23 - 273pts massive upmove, Nifty50 hits new ATH 21492Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Nifty has shown it is stronger than thought by bouncing off the channel’s upper boundary. For tomorrow, my stance is revised to bullish. Since we are at ATH, I do not have an upper target, but my support level will be 21037.” 4mts chart link - click here Results continue to amaze and amuse me. Never have I been rewarded so beautifully for the technical analysis. I strongly do not think it's because my analysis is getting better, but Nifty50 is becoming more predictable. Even if you bought this morning right at the gap up of 21298, you would have made another 158-point gain. Nifty’s new ATH is 21492.3. Normally Gap-ups are either held or sold into, and when it rallies after the gap - it shows a fundamental shift in sentiment. Frankly, I am curious to know - who is buying at these levels, or is it just FOMO? I played the Sensex expiry trades today, the PUT option I sold went up another 84% despite the strike moving up. Usually Puts appreciate when the market falls, but in my case, the spike came when the market was surging. I guess it had to do with the liquidity & new credit spreads getting written. Anyway, it was a treat to watch. 63mts chart link - click here Nifty has formed a new island at a gap-up showing breakout momentum. My stance continues to be bullish with the first support level revised to 21341. All we can do now is trail the stop loss and let the winners run. I stopped trading today at 15.00 when Nifty crossed 20400, would you believe we even went up another 92pts before settling at 21456. The reason I pulled out early was because of the unreal speculation & euphoria. The PUT options were looking pretty seducing to short, but I decided to pass. Good to go into a 2 day holiday due to the weekend and reclaim some sanity. Talk to you guys on Monday.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram