02 Jan ’24 — A Breakdown in Progress? 3 black crows

NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
Nifty Analysis - Stance: Neutral
Recap from yesterday: “The last candle is looking quite deep and has almost negated the progress of 3 days. If it was not related to any news/event, the outcomes match quite strongly for an interim top-like formation.”

4mts chart link - click here
The last 30mts action yesterday was not a blip, we got some continuity today. Nifty50 fell 199pts ~ 0.92% intraday to 21555 by 10.39 and then retraced 50% of that fall. The real impact was on BankNifty and not Nifty. Just like we often say, during trend reversals - BankNifty takes the lead and then Nifty50 follows. We did change the stance on BankNifty to bearish today (more on that in a while).
Even NiftyIT took some beating today, the positive contributors to Nifty50 were BAJFINANCE, RELIANCE, and ADANIPORTS. In fact, BAJFINANCE was the main reason FinNifty and BankNifty had a variance of 0.46% today.

63mts chart link - click here
We would like to maintain the stance on Nifty to neutral itself. The first target for a trend change will be the breach of the ascending channel top line approx 21530 levels. From a technical analysis perspective, we had the 3 black crows at 14.30 yesterday and the first 2 candles today. The last time we had a breakdown i.e. on 20th Dec, Nifty50 took support at the channel top line - so we must breach that now for extra confirmation.


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