Get started

Niftypostmortem

7th Nov ’23 - The 11.40 candle may have a story to tell - NiftyNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “For tomorrow, I wish to maintain the bullish stance with the first target of 19446 and then 19576. If we are going down, the first level to watch will be 19310.” 19446 level never came into the picture today, but 19310 looked quite vulnerable for a breach today. The open was in line and then we had a strong RED candle. From there the recovery went till 11.35. The next 3 candles took out only 61pts, but it seemed like we would have a retest of 19310 levels today. The selling stopped suddenly at 11.50 and we recovered all the lost points. On the 1hr chart, things are looking still in favor of the bulls. The first Laxman Rekha to defend is 19310. For tomorrow, I wish to change my stance to neutral if 19446 is not getting broken in the opening 2 hours. I would love to go bearish if 19310 support is broken because today there were some signs of fatigue.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
6th Nov ’23 - Show of strength today - Nifty PostMortemNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “On the 1hr TF, Nifty has made an odd-looking W pattern, technically its a bullish sign but we need confirmation of the same by taking out the 19310 resistance soon.” A look at the chart will make you a believer in technical analysis. We required a gap-up to go past the 19310 because bulls could not win over the bears during trading hours - you could see that on the 2nd and 3rd Nov - read here. Once you have a gap-up, the dynamics change and the bears cede control quickly. We tested the 19310 support twice, the 1st candle as well as the 11.05 candle. Since it was a rejection - the only way Nifty could go was up. Once BankNifty also started participating, the pace picked up by the afternoon. We did not test the next resistance of 19446 - maybe we will have another gap-up tomorrow at those levels. This is not the first time Nifty has jumped levels via gap-ups. It has become highly predictable these days. When the big boys do a gap-up, the poor retail trader will have to run for cover. A short covering will further fuel the fire. For tomorrow, I wish to maintain the bullish stance with the first target of 19446 and then 19576. If we are going down, the first level to watch will be 19310.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
3rd Nov ’23 - The gap-up gave the trend change indication NiftyNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “The levels have not changed from yesterday, the first resistance is at 19226 and the 2nd one is at 19310. I am staying neutral till 19226 is not taken out, seems like it could be even done in the forenoon session.” The gap-up took out my resistance of 19226 and was forced to go long. I was eagerly waiting for the 19310 to get broken so that the bullish momentum was done and cemented. This did not happen as Nifty was out of steam by 11.00. The 14.30 to 14.50 price action looked scary though, assuming the FIIs would have offloaded their selling positions in this window. On the 1hr TF, Nifty has made an odd-looking W pattern, technically its a bullish sign but we need confirmation of the same by taking out the 19310 resistance soon. These bullish price moves could be highly shortlived as well because its just a reaction of market participants to the FED’s announcement yesterday. Just for reference, I have pasted the SPX chart herewith. Could this relief rally be just another lower high in the making? When the global macros are that bad and the earnings are weak, there is every possibility for the bear run to continue. So if you are a bull, enjoy till it lasts.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
2nd Nov ’23 - When NEWS flows, technical analysis goes for spinNifty Weekly Expiry Analysis Between the last expiry and today, Nifty has accumulated 299pts ~ 1.59% points. Most importantly it has broken away from the crucial support of 18880. As it stands Nifty is below the resistance of 19310 - but with the momentum it has gathered, seems like it will get tested this weekly series. Nifty Today’s Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Check out the daily time frame, does that not look bearish to you? Since we had a red candle today also, it seems like the bearish momentum could build up pretty quickly. We have the FOMC interest rate decision at 23.30 today and US FED comments may spook or lift the markets. Definitely, that will spill over to our markets tomorrow. As of now, SPX is in green trading with gains of 0.53%. Until 18880 is not broken, I wish to maintain my neutral stance.” Nifty opens today with a gap up of 138pts ~ 0.73%, rallies to 19175 by 09.40. This was totally sponsored by the FED with its FOMC decision & the commentary that followed. Markets in the US got the feeling that this was going to be the last of the hikes and were overjoyed. We need to get some background on this topic to understand the real impact. Even if the FED says no more hikes, it doesnt mean the rate cuts will begin soon. If the rates are held at this 5.25 to 5.5% for longer - there is nothing bearish like that. So the reaction that is seen now could just be a temporary phenomenon. The longer FED keeps the rates high - the higher the money that will get sucked out of equity. Also, watch the small and medium-scale businesses - they are the first to go under when the cost of borrowing stays high. No, I am not spoiling the bullish party - I am just being practical. Coming back to India, RBI cannot cut rates when the US holds its line. If we do, more money will flow out from India, further depreciating INR. If RBI also holds the rate at this level long enough - our SME universe will also be impacted. On the 1hr TF, Nifty has formed an island today. The 3rd hourly candle was quite RED - but the fall was arrested soon enough. The levels have not changed from yesterday, the first resistance is at 19226 and the 2nd one is at 19310. I am staying neutral till 19226 is not taken out, seems like it could be even done in the forenoon session. Visit my tradingview minds section, for updates during trading hours tomorrow.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
1st Nov ’23 - Some weakness still persisting - Nifty PostmortemNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Since we retraced the 38.2% level of 19226 today and the reluctance to go up might be confidence-building for the bears. Also the 23.6% level forms a base for further movements. The issue is that we cannot go outright bearish now, we need further proof of that. Ideally, the 18880 support has to be taken out and that too pretty quickly. Till then I wish to maintain my neutral stance.” There is some weakness still lingering around. Despite positive closing by US markets yesterday - we were reluctant to go green today. If you look at the 5mts chart above - the price action continues its journey from yesterday. By 10.00 we hit 19019, but miraculously we gained back those points. From 12.30 to 13.15 we started falling again breaking the last swing low to 19006. Then from 13.45 to close we fell again to a new swing low of 18973. BankNifty was staying pretty strong due to which a big fall was avoided on Nifty. This also ensured that Nifty50 did not break the 18880 support level below which we had to go short. Check out the daily time frame, does that not look bearish to you? Since we had a red candle today also, it seems like the bearish momentum could build up pretty quickly. We have the FOMC interest rate decision at 23.30 today and US FED comments may spook or lift the markets. Definitely, that will spill over to our markets tomorrow. As of now, SPX is in green trading with gains of 0.53%. Until 18880 is not broken, I wish to maintain my neutral stance.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
31st Oct ’23 - Unusual Opening 5mts Candle - Nifty PostMortemNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Even though we added 93pts today, I have still not changed my stance to bullish. 19226 is my first level to watch out which coincides with the 38.2% retracement level of the recent fall. Then the most important zone of 19310. Ideally, I wish to go long only if the 19310 resistance is taken out.” The open (19233.7) was quite strange, a mega gap up right at the resistance level of 19226. If we had gone further up from there, I would have definitely changed my stance from neutral to bullish. Instead, we started falling. The gap was closed in 10mts and we went further south. By 10.40 we lost almost 168pts ~ 0.88%. Fortunately for the bulls, the fall stopped right there, even the close of the day was around those levels. From 27th Oct I had a neutral call on Nifty50. Nifty closed at 19060 then, it is at 19086 today. Connecting the dots, what I still feel is we are waiting for the bearish momentum to pick up. A look at the 1hr TF with the Fibonacci levels will cement this thought. Since we retraced the 38.2% level of 19226 today and the reluctance to go up might be confidence-building for the bears. Also the 23.6% level forms a base for further movements. The issue is that we cannot go outright bearish now, we need further proof of that. Ideally, the 18880 support has to be taken out and that too pretty quickly. Till then I wish to maintain my neutral stance.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
30th Oct ’23 - Nifty50 Shows Strength, but bullish only >19310Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “A simple Fibonacci level places the 23.6% retracement level at 19083 and 38.2% at 19227. Ideally, the bearish trend could still be intact until 19227 but the problem is that we cannot predict with certainty if that would come in this weekly series or not. For Monday, I wish to go with a neutral stance and choose the direction based on how markets move in the forenoon session.” We opened inline and then started falling rapidly. We hit the intraday low of 18940 at 09.40 and things were looking quite bleak then. I was gearing up for going short, but we had a sharp reversal from there. The recovery was exactly 1% ~ 189.7pts to hit a new swing high of 19129 by 12.00. Nifty50 did not stop there, it attempted leg2 till 13.35 and then leg3 till close. Somehow the price action of yesterday and today combined shows early signs that the bears are getting outnumbered. Even though we added 93pts today, I have still not changed my stance to bullish. 19226 is my first level to watch out which coincides with the 38.2% retracement level of the recent fall. Then the most important zone of 19310. Ideally, I wish to go long only if the 19310 resistance is taken out. The options data also shows bullishness, but bear with me for a while here. I do not wish to jump the gun early and go long. I prefer to do that only if the bulls are that strong. In case the bears would like to make a comeback this week - 18880 level has to be broken quickly. The longer it stays above this zone, its going to be tata bye bye bears.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
27th Oct ’23 - A Day to Rest & Reload - Nifty PostMortemNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “For tomorrow, I wish to maintain my bearish stance and expect Nifty to trade between 18880 and 18762. If we break 18762, my next target would be 18597.” Nifty took a breather today, opened gap up around the 18930 area and rose steadily. We did not retouch or break the low of 25 Oct ie 19075 zone, slightly indicating that the bottom may not be in place. Since my bearish view went into loss today, I had to square it off. My current view is neutral and would like to go bearish if the swing low of 18837 is broken again. The moment Nifty climbs back above 19170, I wish to go long. Usually in periods of aggressive directional moves, strong indices usually take a breather to regain the strength. I wish to see it that way for the time being. The price actions of Monday and Tuesday will give us more clarity and we will be able to deploy better strategies then. A simple Fibonacci level places the 23.6% retracement level at 19083 and 38.2% at 19227. Ideally, the bearish trend could still be intact until 19227 but the problem is that we cannot predict with certainty if that would come in this weekly series or not. For Monday, I wish to go with a neutral stance and choose the direction based on how markets move in the forenoon session. Personally, I prefer the markets to go lower as the rising VIX would lift the options premium.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
1
26th Oct ’23 - Nifty hits the jackpot of 18880 - PostMortemNifty Weekly Expiry Analysis Nifty fell a whopping 765pts ~ 3.90% between the last expiry and today. Most importantly it has retraced all its gains from 28th June to close below 18880. We will cover why that is relevant below, but this fall of 4% signals a reversal in trend. Even though VIX is still below 12%, it is showing a tendency to spike, reassuring the bearish sentiment. Nifty Today’s Analysis Recap from yesterday: “On the daily timeframe, the next possible candle that should appear should have its low touching the 18880 level (best case). If Nifty manages to pull this out, it will be an awesome November and December month getting lined up for the Bears. Since Nifty went up from 18880 to 19310 as 3 white soldiers, the return should be nothing less than 3 black crows.” Nifty50 was quite benevolent today, we set a target of 18880 and Nifty hit that by 10.55. That’s a first - 99 out of 100 days the strategy we set for days like these ends up worthless. A day like today will ensure that 1 day is good enough for the options to go deep in the money. We had a gap down open of -86pts ~ 0.45% and from there we fell another 193pts ~ 1.02%. The final close was at 18857. The chart may not paint the severity of the move since its on a logarithmic scale - but trust me, the pain was much more. Except for AXIS, ITC and HCLTECH - the cuts were pretty steep for everything else. On the 1hr chart, the intensity of the first candle is quite obvious. We took out 211 ~1.11% in the first hour itself. The remainder of the day was more or less sideways with a slight bearish intent. On the daily TF, notice the orange color encircled regions. You can quickly relate what 3 white soldiers and 3 black crows are. Today’s closing ensures we retouched the new ATH set on 01 Dec 2022 & 19 Jun 2023. Further price action should be interesting as the global macros keep on deteriorating. For tomorrow, I wish to maintain my bearish stance and expect Nifty to trade between 18880 and 18762. If we break 18762, my next target would be 18597.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
25th Oct ’23 - When will the 18880 level get broken? Nifty50Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Since we are back at the 19310 levels, my point is — the next fall may be as deep as 18880 i.e 430pts ~ 2%. Nifty has no experience trading between these 2 zones earlier, so the supports should be equally powerless. I can mark the top of the candles as support zones, but they would be predictably weak (19190 & 18969).” Nifty did not disappoint the Bears today. The start was right at the 19310 level and we managed to stay around that zone till 10.40. Honestly, I was also fearful that my bearish call may not work out today. For the last 1 to 2 years, Nifty has shown unbelievable resilience that will suck the soul out of any bear. Luckily, the fall started to accelerate once we broke from the 19310 laxman rekha i.e after 10.45. We fell to a new swing low of 19074 intraday, levels last seen as of 30th June 2023. The bounce of 104pts was healthy and gave the bears quite a good premium to enter the 2nd level of shorts. On the daily timeframe, the next possible candle that should appear should have its low touching the 18880 level (best case). If Nifty manages to pull this out, it will be an awesome November and December month getting lined up for the Bears. Since Nifty went up from 18880 to 19310 as 3 white soldiers, the return should be nothing less than 3 black crows. If we get that tomorrow - we are in for a treat, because the entire price action above 19310 right up to 20222 will lose its relevance. I wish to maintain my bearish stance for tomorrow’s expiry and hope to collect some good premiums. A noticeable change we saw today was the spike of India VIX to 12 levels. Although we cooled off and closed at 11.3125, the future holds promise.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
23rd Oct ’23 - The perfect day to break 2 supports - NiftyNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Keeping the global macros in mind, I still wish to continue my bearish stance and expect the 19446 to be taken out on Monday and retest the 19310 soon.” If you watched the opening minutes, you would not have guessed the 283+ intraday fall possibilities. We had a flat open instead of a gap-down even after a weak handout from US markets last Friday. The options data did not indicate any directional bias. Even India VIX fell to 9.68 by 10.00 indicating a collapse of The best evidence was India VIX which fell to a session low of 9.68 by 10.00, unbelievably down by 9.5%. I had 2 short positions on Nifty, long puts and short calls. I planned to unwind the short calls and get into the FinNifty options to take advantage of the expiry today. This plan was spoiled by the 10.00 AM red candle that prevented me from switching. What happened from there was simply magical. By 11.40 we tested the first support of 19446 and by 13.30 we broke that. Honestly, I thought that's how the day ends. The real party was just starting. Between 14.05 to close we fell a massive 180pts ~ 0.93% and took out the 19310 crucial support pretty easily. On the 1hr chart, its more clear and loud. The 14.15 candle shaved off 165pts ~ 0.85% and the length of that candle does tell a story. Since that support is broken, it may pave the way for further downfall. To prove this point, had to bring up the daily chart. See the encircled region, Nifty sent 3 white soldiers on 28th June to break out from the 18880 level. That helped it conquer 2 new ATHs on 20th July and 15th Sep. Since we are back at the 19310 levels, my point is - the next fall may be as deep as 18880 i.e 430pts ~ 2%. Nifty has no experience trading between these 2 zones earlier, so the supports should be equally powerless. I can mark the top of the candles as support zones, but they would be predictably weak (19190 & 18969). Since we have a holiday tomorrow (Dussehra) we may have to watch how SPX reacts for 2 days. If the Global macros improve, a brief relief rally above 19310 may be visible, but seeing the strength of the RED daily candle, I wish to continue my bearish stance.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
1
20th Oct ’23 - Contrasting Trade Signals by N50 and BN todayNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: ”Since we are between 19446 and 19776, Nifty is still range bound — but BankNifty has fallen below the support and is looking weak. For tomorrow I wish to change my stance to bearish with the first target of 19511 and 2nd target of 19446. If we are climbing up, would not prefer to go long until 19776 is not taken out.” Nifty had a gap-down opening with the long wick on the 1st candle retesting the 19520 swing-low we hit yesterday. Right after that the momentum just died out. There were no wild swings or flash moves - we just traded flat. A consolidation at these levels was not something I had in mind. It is too early for that as worsening global macros should have pushed Nifty below 19310 by now. As I write this newsletter, India VIX ended the trade at 10.81 and US VIX is at 21.6. Can you imagine we have a 100% gap between the India and US volatility index? I am 100% sure that one of these markets is pricing in the information wrongly. No way both of them can be right. On the 1hr chart - today’s 0.42% drop has not moved the needle or bias. The first support of 19446 is still untested, which means higher weightage will go for range-based trade instead of outright bearish. Keeping the global macros in mind, I still wish to continue my bearish stance and expect the 19446 to be taken out on Monday and retest the 19310 soon.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
19th Oct ’23 - How do we recover from a Gap-Down Like that? Nifty Weekly Analysis Between the last expiry and today, Nifty has only fallen 172pts ~ 0.87%. Meanwhile, BankNifty fell 1.42% in its weekly expiry (we discussed it in yesterday’s newsletter). Nifty is still range bound whereas BankNifty has dropped below the support. Usually BankNifty leads the reversals, so we can increase our expectation of a fall in Nifty going ahead. Nifty Today Analysis Recap from yesterday: “On the 1hr TF, I wish to change my stance from bullish to neutral but with a bearish bias. The rationale being the intensity of the 10.15 candle that cut through the support. That candle looks purposefully planted to bring a bearish bias. If we start moving downwards tomorrow, my first target will be 19600 followed by 19529. Quite interestingly both predictions came true, we broke the targets 19600, 19529 and ended the day with a neutral tone. I was not surprised by the gap-down open of -100pts or so, it was expected as SPX ended the day with a loss of 1.3% yesterday. What surprised me was the recovery of 168pts ~ 0.87% that came between 09.35 to 14.05 wherein Nifty50 traded in the green for a brief period. Usually, when the bearish targets are taken out it means we are falling and the market has no will or power to climb back. The 5mts candle at 11.25 alone gave a boost of 60pts. Getting your view right and making money are 2 different things you know. The moment you go bearish, you get an instant reversal taking out your stop loss. This might have been the case with most of the traders today. From the 1hr chart, you can notice how deep the gap-down open today. And the 11.45 candle that closed the gap with a gain of 86pts more or less would have taken the soul out of the bears. Since we are between 19446 and 19776, Nifty is still range bound - but BankNifty has fallen below the support and is looking weak. For tomorrow I wish to change my stance to bearish with the first target of 19511 and 2nd target of 19446. If we are climbing up, would not prefer to go long until 19776 is not taken out.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
18th Oct ’23 - Vertical fall from a strong zone - PostMortem N50Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “On the 1hr TF, we have formed an island just above the 19776 levels. Today’s swing high has taken out the highs of 12th October. I wish to continue with my bullish stance as long as the support of 19776 is respected. Ideally, the next target should be 19907 and then 19998 if we are going up. Not sure why, but our markets are looking bullish despite a war in the Middle East, surging gold, surging crude oil, and surging treasury yields in the US. Why are Indian stock indices insulated from these multi-headed shocks? Either the fundamentals are not bad or the technicals (charts) have not priced in these anomalies. As a technical trader, the only option for me is to follow the charts even while knowing something’s off. India VIX @ 10.69, US VIX @ 17.88” The pre-open did not show any indication for the day that followed, even the open was inline. The first candle was quite strong in RED, but it bounced off the support line of 19776. By 10.05 we were back to 19840 levels and looking strong. Even though the 19700 PEs were trading in the cheap 20 to 22 range - I was not interested in buying thinking it would go worthless. What followed was totally uncalled for. We started falling quite brutally, the support was taken out by 10.50, the intensity really picked up and we hit an interim bottom at 12.30 ~ 19674 levels. As we discussed yesterday, the charts did not indicate this movement - it looked pretty bullish to me. What happened today was that my long position went into loss and then I had to go short to go with the trend. The second leg of the fall took out 65pts ~ 0.33% after we climbed to the 19720 levels. The 2nd leg was stalled by time - else we could have seen more action. On the 1hr TF, I wish to change my stance from bullish to neutral but with a bearish bias. The rationale being the intensity of the 10.15 candle that cut through the support. That candle looks purposefully planted to bring a bearish bias. If we start moving downwards tomorrow, my first target will be 19600 followed by 19529. In case we reverse, the first step would be to take out the resistance of 19776.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
17th Oct ’23 - Nifty Breaches Resistance Zone 19776 - PostMortemNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “On the 1hr chart, I wish to maintain the neutral stance until we break out or break down. Since we are near the resistance level, the probability of breaking out could be higher. That does not mean we jump the gun and take the trade early — patience is gold” Nifty got a mega boost by the gap-up open of almost 118pts ~ 0.6%. Since it took out my resistance zone, I had to change my bias from neutral to bullish. Interestingly Nifty looked strong till 13.20 after which it shed 72pts ~ 0.36% in 50mts. Despite that misadventure, we still respected the support of 19776. The final closing was also quite good and above the 19800 levels. On the 1hr TF, we have formed an island just above the 19776 levels. Today’s swing high has taken out the highs of 12th October. I wish to continue with my bullish stance as long as the support of 19776 is respected. Ideally, the next target should be 19907 and then 19998 if we are going up. Not sure why, but our markets are looking bullish despite a war in the Middle East, surging gold, surging crude oil, and surging treasury yields in the US. Why are Indian stock indices insulated from these multi-headed shocks? Either the fundamentals are not bad or the technicals (charts) have not priced in these anomalies. As a technical trader, the only option for me is to follow the charts even while knowing something’s off. India VIX @ 10.69, US VIX @ 17.88
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
1
16th Oct ’23 - Flattish Day with no flavor - PostMortem on NiftyNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “On the 1hr pattern, the first thing I would like to do is change my stance from bullish to neutral. We have broken the 19776 support today and well above the 19446 zone. For Monday I wish to go with the neutral trades only and go short if we fall below 19614 in the forenoon session.” We started the day with a strong red candle, maybe the spillover effect as SPX had closed with a cut of 0.5% on Friday. We did not fall below 19614 so there was no question of going short. Interestingly we recovered 89pts by 11.45 and was trading with a tint of green. Markets were absolutely flat with no flavor, people who had deployed directional strategies would have felt asleep seeing the price action. Traders who went with non-directional strategies like the iron condor, iron fly or straddles/strangles would have hit the jackpot. In the last hour, we gave away 50pts - but nothing to worry about. Our VIX ended the day with 11.07 whereas US VIX is still at 17.61 even after a 9% collapse after SPX went green today. Lower VIX in Indian markets reflects the lack of fear or uncertainties - reiterating that it is a pathetic period to sell options thinking you can collect whatever premium is available. Selling low is not a good strategy - it is better to wait out or take a vacation if you are that impulsive. On the 1hr chart, I wish to maintain the neutral stance until we break out or break down. Since we are near the resistance level, the probability of breaking out could be higher. That does not mean we jump the gun and take the trade early - patience is gold. I personally prefer to see a fall and retest of the 19446 levels by this Thursday - that is the only way I know to drive up the VIX.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
13th Oct ’23 - Unseen Double V shape - Nifty PostMortemNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: ”For tomorrow I wish to continue my bullish stance if 19776 support is respected. If that breaks in the morning session, I would like to change my stance to neutral. If 19671 level breaks in the forenoon session — I would definitely go short as we may fall below the double-top formation.” Yes, you guessed it right by reading the title - I lost money both ways today. Firstly I went short because 19671 was broken. The short trade did not do well as we stopped falling. Secondly, we had a massive reversal - a total of 170pts intraday swing that really made my short position look like a sitting duck. To start with, I did not expect we would have an opening candle swing of negative 147pts ~ 0.75%. Agreed that US markets were weak yesterday and INFY results disappointed. Guess what? Infy ended the day with just -2.34% loss. The rates pre-open showed was negative 4% opening on INFY would have really put the pressure on Nifty to have that deep-cut opening. But levels are levels and we traders respect that - I had no other option but to go short. The only mistake I made was not having a safe long position on the CALL side as protection. There again I never thought we would be rallying back to go-green and then fall back. We had 2 V shapes today. The first reversal at 10.50 and the 2nd one at 14.25. I might have to test and find out what kind of trader made money today - A double V shape is normally not a Nifty50 phenomenon. On the 1hr pattern, the first thing I would like to do is change my stance from bullish to neutral. We have broken the 19776 support today and well above the 19446 zone. For Monday I wish to go with the neutral trades only and go short if we fall below 19614 in the forenoon session. Till then I am eagerly watching how SPX will close the day today.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
12th Oct ’23 - A perfect Flat day of trade - Nifty PostMortemNifty Weekly Expiry Analysis Nifty went up 236pts ~ 1.21% between the last expiry and today. The major highlight was its capability to defend the support of 19446 and then breach the resistance of 19776. Today we even retested the support of 19776 and it held and may pave the way for further upmoves. Nifty Today Analysis Recap from yesterday: “We had a perfect island day today above the resistance level of 19776. My bullish view continues and the next level to watch out for will be 19901 which was tested on 11th and 20th Sep. It just took 2 days to recover from the fall we had due to war — sometimes I think we have not priced in the real impact of it.” This was the day today - a perfect flat day. If yesterday’s price action is taken into consideration it shows a good continuity. The pre-open showed more bullishness but except for the gap-up we did not have any bullish momentum today. My long call for today did not yield any results. I do not see a bearish intent - we tried breaking the support of 19776. Even the 19800 psychological level was showing good stability just like yesterday. On the 1hr TF, I still do not see the reason to abandon my bullish stance. I agree that the 19899 level was not taken out today. But the support of 19776 did not break either. It also makes sense for Nifty to rest after the Tuesday and Wednesday climb. For tomorrow I wish to continue my bullish stance if 19776 support is respected. If that breaks in the morning session, I would like to change my stance to neutral. If 19671 level breaks in the forenoon session - I would definitely go short as we may fall below the double-top formation.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
11th Oct ’23 - Nifty Cuts Through the Resistance - PostMortemNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “On the hourly chart — India replies with 5 white soldiers to the war news (3 white soldiers means 3 strong green candles). We have not taken out the 19776 resistance so far — but we are pretty close. I wish to change my stance from neutral to bullish with the first target of 19776 and the 2nd target of 19847.” Nifty continuing from the good form it picked up from yesterday, we opened gap-up of 76pts and then went on to take out the resistance line of 19776. The low formed in the opening 5mts was not broken showing how powerful the bulls were. We rallied another 71pts to hit a high of 19839. Interestingly Nifty did not fall or retrace from these high levels. The 19800 level was proving tough to break. We had a perfect island day today above the resistance level of 19776. My bullish view continues and the next level to watch out for will be 19901 which was tested on 11th and 20th Sep. It just took 2 days to recover from the fall we had due to war - sometimes I think we have not priced in the real impact of it. Crude oil if it remains elevated will prove to be such a disaster for us as we are importers.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
10th Oct ’23 - India sends 5 white soldiers to the war - NiftyNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: ”For true bearishness 19350 or the recent swing low has to be taken out tomorrow. Well, I have a bearish bias because of the LONG PUT option — but the charts are not showing anything so far. If we bounce back from the 19446 level tomorrow also — I may be forced to close out the position at a loss. For tomorrow I would like to go with a 50% neutral and 50% bearish option. Nifty is not technically weak — it is the global macro that is weak. “ Nifty does a gap-up open today and then rallies a total of 109pts in the opening candle w.r.t previous day’s close. This also ensures that yesterday’s swing high is not broken on the downside from the 2nd candle onwards. Till 11.35 Nifty showed no special signs of directional movement but once the 19620 levels were broken - it started climbing ferociously. Can you believe we shot up another 106pts ~ 0.54% to negate yesterday’s price action as well as take out the swing high of 6th October. Yesterday looked like a blip, remember our Friday’s plan - “Go long”. We are there now. What these 2 days did was to take out my stop losses both ways. My long stop loss was taken out yesterday and the short stop loss was taken out today. On the hourly chart - India replies with 5 white soldiers to the war news (3 white soldiers means 3 strong green candles). We have not taken out the 19776 resistance so far - but we are pretty close. I wish to change my stance from neutral to bullish with the first target of 19776 and the 2nd target of 19847. In case we lose the momentum tomorrow - we will still be range-bound unless the bottom support is broken.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by viswaram
9th Oct ’23 - Israel's War changes sentiment - PostMortem NiftyNifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “For Monday, I wish to continue my neutral stance but keep my options open for bullish moves. The moment 19776 is tested and broken — we can expect further participation to take Nifty much ahead. For the bears to make a comeback — the US markets have to close in DEEP RED today.” Nifty opened mega gap-down due to the shocking developments over the weekend. Israel declared it is in a state of war after Hamas fired rockets and took hostage Israeli citizens - source. No one was expecting this sharp reversal in global macro. In fact, US markets closed last Friday pretty strong. Since I am not a Geo-political expert - I have no comments on what will happen, but the financial markets usually do not like uncertainty. The greatest risk right now is crude oil as the war is in the Middle East. If other countries join this battle - the risk of further escalation cannot be ruled out and the biggest victim could be the developing countries that import OIL. Even though the chart may confuse you, we only fell 0.86% ~ 168pts in the opening 10mts and that was the low for the day. The recovery was sharp and decent and we made it up to the 61.8% retracement level. From there we started falling but gradually. There again the low set in the initial 10mts still untouched. I had to go short today - not just because the chart told me, but because I thought fundamentally the perceived risk could be much higher. Already our markets have outperformed the global peers - and this risk-on should have prompted the FIIs to pull out more money. We might have to wait for a few days for more clarity to emerge, so I thought to take some risks with some long PUT options. The 1hr chart does not show a direction yet. If 19446 was taken out today - it would have shown bearishness - but it is neutral. For true bearishness 19350 or the recent swing low has to be taken out tomorrow. Well, I have a bearish bias because of the LONG PUT option - but the charts are not showing anything so far. If we bounce back from the 19446 level tomorrow also - I may be forced to close out the position at a loss. For tomorrow I would like to go with a 50% neutral and 50% bearish option. Nifty is not technically weak - it is the global macro that is weak. In the battle for technical analysis versus fundamental analysis - fundamental always wins especially when accompanied by strong news-flow.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by viswaram
6th Oct ’23 - Show of Strength - PostMortem on Nifty50Nifty Analysis Recap from yesterday: “Although we had a good green day today — the body of the candle was not good enough. So I am not changing my stance from bearish to bullish instead, I am going with a neutral stance for tomorrow.” Everything went in the bull’s way today. The opening was gap-up followed by a steady upward-looking rally. Even though we had the RBI MPC meeting today(we will discuss in detail in the BankNifty postmortem below) - it had nothing for the bears. As it stands Nifty has managed to come out from the bear’s grip. On the 1hr TF Nifty is still between 19446 and 19776 support/resistance levels. But the gap-up formation on consecutive days and the island formation have really shifted the sentiment from bearish to bullish. We have to take out the 19710 and 19776 levels too for a strong bullish momentum to pick-up. Mainly because we had some strong red candles at those zones. Look at the US VIX (blue) vs India VIX (orange). Global markets are at extreme fear whereas Indian markets are at extreme greed. Need to know how long this decoupling lasts. For Monday, I wish to continue my neutral stance but keep my options open for bullish moves. The moment 19776 is tested and broken - we can expect further participation to take Nifty much ahead. For the bears to make a comeback - the US markets have to close in DEEP RED today.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram
5th Oct ’23 - Gap-up takes out my stoploss Nifty PostmortemNifty Expiry Analysis Between the last expiry and today, Nifty has only lost 6pts. Quite a rarity to see a flat close especially when we had some strong preceding moves. The recovery today gave Nifty a strong character change as well. It was looking a lot negative yesterday and further fall was looking obvious. Nifty Daily Analysis Recap from yesterday: “The next support level of 19310 fell short by just 0.1%. If the current momentum holds — then it should be tested and taken out by tomorrow.”. I must say - it did not go as per this plan. We not only did not break the support - but we went back and broke the resistance. Today’s move took out my stop loss and also messed around with the expiry trade. The gap-up opening of 0.5% ~ 97pts was a true show of strength. Although I am not quite sure what changed fundamentally overnight. We did not close the gap today even though we had a slight fall towards 19486 levels. Then the 2nd leg of the boost came at 10.45 which took Nifty up by 89pts ~ 0.46%. From there we almost went sideways and closed with no further drama. On the 1hr TF we have 3 distinct formations. A strong red candle on 3rd, a gap-down hammer on 4th, and then a doji today. If we had a full green body candle today - it would have been a morning star formation. A morning star formation is usually a strong bullish signal that forms at the end of a bear run. Although we had a good green day today - the body of the candle was not good enough. So I am not changing my stance from bearish to bullish instead, I am going with a neutral stance for tomorrow. The support and resistance levels of 19446 and 19776 still stay as it is - a break on either side will shift my stance in that direction.
NSE:NIFTY
by viswaram