30th Oct ’23 - Nifty50 Shows Strength, but bullish only >19310

NSE:NIFTY   Nifty 50 Index
Nifty Analysis
Recap from yesterday: “A simple Fibonacci level places the 23.6% retracement level at 19083 and 38.2% at 19227. Ideally, the bearish trend could still be intact until 19227 but the problem is that we cannot predict with certainty if that would come in this weekly series or not. For Monday, I wish to go with a neutral stance and choose the direction based on how markets move in the forenoon session.”

We opened inline and then started falling rapidly. We hit the intraday low of 18940 at 09.40 and things were looking quite bleak then. I was gearing up for going short, but we had a sharp reversal from there. The recovery was exactly 1% ~ 189.7pts to hit a new swing high of 19129 by 12.00.
Nifty50 did not stop there, it attempted leg2 till 13.35 and then leg3 till close. Somehow the price action of yesterday and today combined shows early signs that the bears are getting outnumbered.

Even though we added 93pts today, I have still not changed my stance to bullish. 19226 is my first level to watch out which coincides with the 38.2% retracement level of the recent fall. Then the most important zone of 19310. Ideally, I wish to go long only if the 19310 resistance is taken out.
The options data also shows bullishness, but bear with me for a while here. I do not wish to jump the gun early and go long. I prefer to do that only if the bulls are that strong. In case the bears would like to make a comeback this week - 18880 level has to be broken quickly. The longer it stays above this zone, its going to be tata bye bye bears.


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