06 June 2024 - Nifty above 22781 resistance, slightly bullishOver the last 1 week, Nifty is up only 1.33% ~ 300pts, but we witnessed one of the most violent weeks in the last 4 years. Primarily because the exit polls overshot the expectations which gave a gap up of 3.5% ~ 792pts and then the actual polls came less than expected and this ensured we had a brutal fall of 2062pts ~ 8.84%.
Once the dust settled, we retraced the lost ground yesterday and closed at the same levels as 31st May. Today was a decent day, but not without volatility. For some reason or the other, I did not participate in the expiry day trading today, and was more than happy to just watch than do.
My forecast for today was a neutral day, but we ended up having a trending day. We rose 201pts ~ 0.89% to close just above the 22781 resistance. Most of you would have seen the Fibonacci retracement levels drawn on the chart yesterday, seems like we are respecting those levels today also - but the resistance cut through is prompting us to change the stance to bullish. The next target would obviously be to take out the ATH.
All eyes now would be on the oath ceremony wherein Narendra Modi may be crowned the PM for a historic third term. Read a whatsapp forward that he was Pradhan Manthri for the 2 terms and will be a Pradhan Man-three this time as the coalition is held by 2 other parties TDP and JDU.
Niftytradesetup
Nifty50 Support And Resistance 7-Jun-24
Please find below simple resistance and support:
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Nifty Support & Resistance Levels for 06.06.2024Nifty gained more than 3% yesterday and closed near the 15-minute resistance zone mentioned in the last post. If it breaks above 22,900, we might see selling pressure at the daily resistance zone starting at 23,062.
Support Levels:
Intraday Support Zone (15m): 21,944 - 22,076
Near Support (Daily): 21,137 - 21,459 (remains the same)
Far Support (Daily): 20,769 - 20,950
Resistance Levels:
Intraday Resistance Zone (15m): 22,643 - 22,881
Major Resistance/Supply Zone (Daily): 23,062 - 23,338.70
05 Jun 2024 - Nifty50 Reversal or 61.8% Fibonacci retracement?No, I am not denying the credit to Nifty50 to have rallied 735pts ~ 3.36% to have a beautiful green today. I just drew the Fibonacci levels from the peak point of 3rd June and the bottom-most level of Jun 04 - the results are in front of you.
23.6% levels @ 21796 had some action
38.2% levels @ 22091 (quite near my 22051 SR level) had a stronger action
50% levels @ 22329 (quite near my 22295 levels) also had significant touchpoints
61.8% levels @ 22567 (quite near my 22519 levels) is where we closed today
I would not prefer to change my stance to bullish yet. The best I could think of is to go neutral and see how these levels are holding up for the next 1 week. The resistance of 22781 may be the game changer according to me.
And honestly, we are back at the levels just before the exit poll results. 3 violent moves would have shaken out a sizeable crowd of traders. It takes courage to even hang-on.
NIFTY Prediction for tomorrow 6 Jun 24NIFTY gave a really big bullish moment today. It's still an effect, and the market boomed 700+ points.
If we look at the chart now:
The market gave really big momentum to the upside. The market is trading above EMA, which shows that the market is really bullish right now. There is also a bullish EMA(13, 50) crossover, which indicates that the market is in a bullish phase now.
Support levels: 22246, 21850, and 21293
resistance levels: 22640, 22832, 23151
If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 0.61, which has increased from 0.53, shows a bullish sign in the market. There is no such max-pain Market that is clearly bullish. There is only good CE writing at 23000, which is going to provide a huge resistance.
VIX has also decreased significantly, which indicates volatility is being controlled.
I am expecting the market:
Case 1 : Sideways in range of 22253-22640
Case 2 : On either side, it breaks to either side's trade accordingly.
Reason:
RSI > 60 shows a bullish structure.
Price > EMA(13, 50, 200), which indicates a Bullishmarket structure.
PCR = 0.63 has risen from 0.53 and shows signs of bullishness.
Price > VWAP shows a Bullish market structure.
Verdict: Sideways in range of 22253-22640. and Volatile on either side, it breaks.
Plan of action:
Case 1 : Sideways: Sell 22250 PE & 22650 CE (Hedge it with 20/- premium options)
Case 2 : Exit the opposite position on either side. It breaks.
Nifty Support & Resistance Levels for 05.06.2024Huge selling was witnessed yesterday due to election results that did not align with exit polls. A big red candle on the daily chart broke almost all near supports of the last four months, breaking the channel and taking support at the daily demand zone of 21,137 - 21,459.
Support Levels:
Near Small Support (Daily): 21,137 - 21,459
Far Support (Daily): 20,769 - 20,950
Gap Zone Support (Daily): 20,267 - 20,508 (if further fall occurs)
Resistance Levels:
Intraday Resistance Zone (15m): 22,643 - 22,881
Major Resistance/Supply Zone (Daily): 23,062 - 23,338.70
Nifty witnessed Biggest Single Day fall of Recent Years
Indian benchmark showed correction & lose more than 6%
on Vote counting day.
Nifty broke below imp swing low & showed sharp correction
to came near 21300 level
A Big Long candle has formed on Daily TF, erased last few months gains
The imp upside hurdle is placed around 22500/600 level
whereas downside support is around 22200 zone
Track for price to form Price Action Patterns at Imp Levels,
However market may show Choppiness after today's sharp fall.
Keep Tracking Charts
*For Educational Purpose
Learn & Practice Price Action setups
04 Jun 2024- Nifty almost hit the lower circuit ~ 10% intradayWhat a strange day it has been, the moment the market participants realized that BJP will not get a simple majority - we started falling. That realization came in the opening minutes and did not give me ample time to prepare.
Honestly, I did not expect such a move today. I really thought we would have the reaction on Wednesday instead. I was not really ready with my short position and to be frank, I lost almost 5 lakhs as opportunity cost today.
Nifty ended up negating the last 172 days of upmove, in the single daily candle of today. It is like watching your building collapse, something that you took 6 months to build.
Interestingly the reversal came at the 200 EMA and not at 21491. If you notice my chart, I do not have a support/resistance level between 21491 and 19855 - if we break that tomorrow, it is going to be a free-fall.
Stance updated to bearish till proven wrong.
Current, NDA 291, INDIA 234, Others 18.
Nifty on Radar - 3 JuneToday we have a gap up opening of more than 3% and the price has touched the levels of all time high.
The question is weather it sustain on these levels.
So, wait for the price to settle down.
Technically we are in a no trade zone.
Disclaimer : This is my pre market analysis and my trading journal. Not a suggestion to buy or sell.
Nifty50 ( 31st May) 1/2Hourly closing below 22584 -- 22609 will be 🐻 📉 📉 to 22428 and 22280
22280 could test within 3rd June
Any closing sustains above 22609 in hourly then 📈 📈
Disclaimer:
It's a personal view not a financial advice and I assume no responsibility and liability whatever outcome arises.
Nifty Support & Resistance Levels for 04.06.2024GIFTNIFTY is trading flat at 23,446 as of 8:35 AM. After yesterday's GAP UP opening and high closing, the last Friday's high-low range will serve as a good support if we see a correction from high levels.
Support Levels:
Near Support (Daily): 22,417 - 22,568
Far Support Zone (75m): 21,821 - 22,041
03 Jun 2024 - Exit poll results takes Nifty50 to all new highsNo technical analyst could have predicted what would happen today, yes most of them would have guessed it right. The analysis that really stood out Friday was when one of the analysts posted the screenshots of Adani group stocks and mentioned - see the exit poll results before the actual exit polls.
Honestly, it could have gone either way. If the exit polls predicted less than 270 seats, then we would have fallen 800pts easily. Luckily, things went up and the majority of the crowd were happy (most of them were long only).
Our stance is revised to bullish, if we start falling then 23089 would be the first support.
Nifty on Radar - 31 MayAn indecisive candle has been formed with Low High and High Low. Currently we are in a no trade zone. The important levels to watch are R1-22,705.75 and S1-22,417.00 Also the price could be volatile in this range.
Disclaimer : This is my pre market analysis and my trading journal. Not a suggestion to buy or sell.
Nifty Support & Resistance Levels for 03.06.2024GIFTNIFTY is trading 3.5% up (800+ points) as of 8:05 AM, indicating we will see a GAP UP opening today and hit a new all-time high. Here are the high time frame support and resistance zones instead of intraday levels:
Support Levels:
Near Support (Daily): 22,417 - 22,568
Far Support Zone (75m): 21,821 - 22,041
Resistance Levels:
Nearest Resistance Zone (Daily): 22,888 - 23,110.80
Nifty witnessed correction in last week from record HighsNifty remained in selling mode for most part of the week
A Negative type candle has formed on daily chart
Until Nifty holds above prev week low, recovery towards 22650/700+ is possible
However if holds below 22350, correction towards next support could come
Election Results can create Volatility in the Maket
Keep Tracking Charts
*For Educational Purpose
Learn & Practice Price Action setups
NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 3 May 2024| Loksabha Trading ViewNIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 3 May 2024
Bullish-Above 22660
Invalid-Below 22600
T- 22120 23417
NIFTY has closed on a bearish note last week with 1.86% last cut. Since the coming week is very due to Loksabha election results. As per the exit polls market looks all set for a fresh ATH. Directional move will be seen on Monday in the upside and there can be IV crush on Tuesday and the next day also then again a rally is very much possible. So it looks safe to sell non-directional only after news is out i.e result day.
Coming to Monday's trade setup, if index opens flat and a 15 Min candle closes above 22660 then we will long for the target of 23120 and 23417.
Chances of a big gap up is high, so one can trade on 10 o'clock range breakout for a precise entry with risk calculated with previous swing after breakout.
In case of a big gap up/down, wait till 10 o'clock and mark the high and low of the trading range (5MIN). Trade on this range breakout.
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I am Not SEBI Registered
This is my personal analysis for my personal trading. Kindly consult your financial advisor before taking any actions based on this.
Nifty 2 Hour Swing Chart, Technical OutlookThe price has given the break of structure on the down side.
The broken structure indicates a start of a downtrend.
But the downtrend will be confirmed on the breakdown of 22,417.
Disclaimer : This is my pre market analysis and my trading journal. Not a suggestion to buy or sell.
31 May 2024 - Stance changed to neutral, all eyes on exit pollNifty was unable to break the 22519 support, the entire day we spent hovering around this support resistance level - but the sheer inability to break shows the lack of strength of the Bears.
I would have maintained the bearish stance if we had at least 1 candle below this level. Currently, the next support level is at 22295 and the resistance level is at 22781.
All eyes are on the exit polls now, to be frank - technical analysis won't work when there is news flow and there is no way to predict what is coming next.
To be honest, I am not aware if BJP will get the number of seats they had in mind or if we have a coalition govt or not. Personally, I prefer not to predict but take some aggressive positions once a clue appears.
My expectations for markets next week, post election results
1. 400+ seats - up 5%+
2. 270 to 399 seats - down 5 to 10%
3. less than 270 seats - down 25%
I am of the impression that we may have a fall after the initial surge as a few sectors are overvalued.
NIFTY Prediction for tomorrow | 3 June | MondayAs we discussed, Nifty had a sideways structure; it was sideways the whole day.
If we look at the chart now:
The market is trading in the range while taking good resistance at 200-EMA. The market is very volatile as VIX is 24.60. the market is trading in the range 22465 - 22639. If we look at the last two candles, it is a huge volume from the support zone as well as selling from the resistance zone.
If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 0.76, which has fallen from 0.53, shows a market bullish structure. 22500 is going to be MaxPain. 23000 is very Hard resistance with heavy CE writing.
I am expecting:
Case 1 : Sideways in the range 22465 - 22639.
Case 2 : If the market breaks 22465 to the downside or if the market breaks the upside, it will be bullish.
Reasons:
RSI < 50 shows a weak bull strength.
Price < EMA(13, 50, 200), which indicates a bearish market.
The market has formed a lower high lower low structure in 15-min TH that indicates the market is bearish unless the market tends to form a Higher-High.
PCR = 0.76 indicates neutral market behavior.
Price < VWAP shows that a weak market structure can lead to a bearish market.
Verdict: Sideways in range also can break to either side.
Plan of action :
Case 1: Sideways: Sell 22450 PE & 22650 CE (Hedge it with 40/-)
Case 2: Exit the loss-making leg once it breaks the channel.
Nifty on Radar - 30 MayToday we have a gap down opening and the price has made a strong negative candle.
The price is in a strong negative trend. The probability on the down side is more than 60%.
Also the price is entering in the compression zone.
Disclaimer : This is my pre market analysis and my trading journal. Not a suggestion to buy or sell.
#Nifty Directions and Levels for May31st.Good morning, friends! 🌺🍬 Here are the directions for May 31st:
The global market continues to show a bearish sentiment based on the Dow Jones, while our local market also shows a bearish trend. Today, the market may open with a slight gap-down, as indicated by GiftNifty, which shows a decrease of 25 points.
Nifty and Banknifty moved in different paths in the last session. What about today? I think it may continue a little bit. OK, let's look at the Nifty chart first.
Even though Nifty fell, it had a solid pullback in the last half hour, so even if the market opens with a gap-down, it may try to bounce back initially because the structures suggest that. If this happens, we can expect a range market between the 38% upside resistance and the previous low. if it happens, the second half might enter a correction phase. but This is not necessary, is our first variation.
The alternate scenario suggests that if the initial market takes a solid pullback and reaches the 38% Fib level, we can try a breakout entry that may reach the 50% Fib level. If this happens, it could retrace a little bit and continue consolidating further. However, if it breaks 50% after the consolidation, we can expect a rally continuation.