NIFTY50 - SELL AND RUN AWAY ?

Symbol - NIFTY50

CMP - 22960

NIFTY50 is following a rising channel & headed strongly towards its higher end. Currently It is trading near round level of 23000.

According to my analysis & my view, Nifty50 will face strong resistance around round level 23000 - 23100 which is also upper end of the rising channel.

I'm expecting Nifty to show a reversal from these levels & It may witness a strong profit booking. General Elections result is due on 4th June & because of this, INDIAVIX has shot up from 11-12 levels to 22 level. This is also hinting a reversal. If any negative news flow comes in coming week or on elections result day, We may see huge fall in Nifty50.

Hence I am creating huge short positions in Nifty50 June Futures at CMP 22960.

I will add more position between 23150 - 23250, if comes.

My SL would be 23400 & Targets I'm looking for are lower end of this channel which is around 22050 - 22120 & If it breaks this channel pattern on downside, We will see huge fall till 21000 easily (which is my second target) & beyond.

Risk is small here & Reward is huge. That's why taking more position than usual.
Not taking any position in options as May series options are expiring in 4 days & premiums of June series options are very very inflated.





Disclaimer - Do not consider this as a buy/sell recommendation. I'm sharing my analysis & my trading position. You can track it for educational purposes. Thanks!

Trade active:

CMP 23100
Price touching upper end of rising channel, So adding some more quantity here.
Avg sell price now is 23032

I will add more quantity at 23250
Holding with strict SL 23400

Trade active:

CMP 22888

144 points in profit.

Trade active:

CMP 22695

Future position 337 points in profit.

Trade active:

CMP 22570

462 points in profit. Holding with CTC SL now.

Trade active:

CMP 22488

Future position 545 points in profit. Holding with Trailing SL.

Trade closed manually:

Closed at 22570 with trailing SL.

Trade closed: target reached:

Although I closed my position in 500 points profit with trailing SL (I closed before election results because I usually don't trade on big event days).

First target hit.
Second target missed by 250 points. I think it will hit second target as well in coming days!

Trade active:

CMP 22865

This market recovery for me is another opportunity to create short positions.
RR is very favorable here to create short positions.
Hence I am shorting Nifty Futures again at CMP 22860
I will add more quantity at 23200 - 23250, If comes & hold with SL of 23340

Trade active:

CMP 23250

Adding more quantity here.
Ave sell price now is 23055
Holding with 23400 strict SL.

Trade active:

Nifty made a wick above 23400 on 5 min TF & witnessing heavy selling and corrected 150 points instantly.
I will exit my position if any candle (15 or 30 mins candle) is giving strong closing above 23400.

Trade active:

Not giving any strong closing above 23400.
Every time it is touching 23400 zone, It is witnessing heavy selling.

Trade closed: stop reached:

Sustaining above 23420 for about 30 mins now. Hence Closing my trade here.
Booking 360 points loss.