Nifty 50 - Portfolio Colour similar to color of Christmas?Year endings have historically been famous for a big correction and 2024 is no different.
As I had mentioned in my previous idea, 23900, 23300 are crucial support to Nifty and 24300, 24800 are strong resistances
We had seen a good bounce from 23300 to 24780 and then a good fall once 24300 was broken again.
23200-23300 will be a key level to understand next trend for Nifty.
As we can see, there is a confluence of trendlines and demand zone around 23200.
If we see a bear trap forming at this zone, one can expect 25000+ levels in January 2025.
But if 23200 is broken, bloodbath may continue till budget with next key support zones being 22700, 22000, 21500.
Market is going to be volatile as we are going to see a change in lot size of Nifty 50 from new year.
It is better to be sector specific for swing trading.
Niftytrend
Nifty Trading Strategy for 23rd December 2024.Nifty Trading Strategy
Key Levels:
Buy Above: The high of the 15-minute candle that closes above 23,740
Sell Below: The low of the 15-minute candle that closes below 23,440
Targets:
Upside Targets: 23,825, 23,925, 24,020
Downside Targets: 23,320, 23,230, 23,100
Strategy Details:
Buy Signal: Enter a buy position above the high of the 15-minute candle that closes above 23,740, aiming for targets of 23,825, 23,925, and 24,020.
Sell Signal: Enter a sell position below the low of the 15-minute candle that closes below 23,440, aiming for targets of 23,320, 23,230, and 23,100.
Trailing Stop-Loss: Use a trailing stop-loss to manage risk and protect your capital.
Book Profits: Regularly book profits at the specified resistance and support levels.
Additional Tips:
Monitoring: Continuously monitor the 15-minute chart for clear buy or sell signals.
Risk Management: Always use stop-loss orders to manage risk and protect your capital.
Market Conditions: Stay updated on market news and events that could impact Nifty.
This strategy provides a structured approach for trading Nifty, ensuring clear buy and sell signals along with defined targets. I am not SEBI Registered.
Nifty Intraday Support & Resistance Levels for 23.12.2024On Friday, Nifty opened flat to positive and climbed to a high of 24,065.80, briefly crossing the previous day’s high. However, heavy selling pressure pushed it to a day low of 23,537.35, entering the 75m Demand Zone mentioned earlier. It closed negative for the 5th consecutive session at 23,587.50, losing 364 points. While the Weekly Trend (50 SMA) remains positive, the Daily Trend (50 SMA) has turned negative.
Demand/Support Zones
Near Demand/Support Zone (75m): 23,447.15 - 23,578.60 (tested)
Far Support Level: 23,263 (low of 21st November 2024)
Far Support Level: 23,189.88 (61.8% FIBO retracement)
Far Demand/Support Zone (Daily): 21,791.95 - 22,910.15
Supply/Resistance Zones
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (75m): 23,892.70 - 23,993.90
Far Supply/Resistance Zone (Daily): 24,149.85 - 24,394.45
Far Supply/Resistance Zone (Weekly): 24,567.65 - 25,234.05 (tested)
Outlook
Nifty has lost over 1,200 points during its five-day losing streak, entering an oversold zone on the 75m timeframe. With prices touching the 75m Demand Zone (23,447.15 - 23,578.60), there’s potential for a bounce back, provided the support holds.
NIFTY Support and Resistance For NIFTY (NSE Nifty 50), the support and resistance levels are typically determined using technical analysis. These levels represent key price points at which the index is likely to either reverse direction or experience a significant pause in its movement.
Since I do not have real-time data access, I'll guide you on how to determine 1-day (1D) support and resistance for NIFTY using common methods. You can apply these techniques using charting tools or financial platforms like TradingView, MetaTrader, or similar platforms that provide real-time market data.
1. Support Level:
Support is the price level at which the index tends to find buying interest, causing a potential price reversal or halt in a downward trend.
Support is formed at previous price lows or significant levels where NIFTY has bounced up in the past.
2. Resistance Level:
Resistance is the price level at which selling interest tends to emerge, preventing the price from moving higher and potentially causing a reversal or a slowdown in upward momentum.
Resistance is found at previous price highs or significant levels where NIFTY has previously struggled to break above.
Common Techniques to Identify Support and Resistance:
Pivot Points (for intraday trading):
Pivot points provide a mathematical calculation for predicting potential support and resistance levels for the day.
Key pivot levels are calculated based on the previous day's high, low, and close prices:
Pivot Point
=
High
+
Low
+
Close
3
Pivot Point=
3
High+Low+Close
First Resistance (R1) = (2 × Pivot Point) − Low
First Support (S1) = (2 × Pivot Point) − High
Second Resistance (R2) = Pivot Point + (High − Low)
Second Support (S2) = Pivot Point − (High − Low)
Fibonacci Retracement:
Fibonacci retracement levels are popular for identifying potential support and resistance zones. The key retracement levels are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 100%.
To plot Fibonacci retracement, you identify the significant swing high and swing low on the chart and apply the Fibonacci tool. The retracement levels often coincide with important support and resistance zones.
Previous Highs and Lows:
Look at past price action, especially the previous day's high and low points. These are often the first areas of support and resistance.
Resistance is typically found near the previous day's high.
Support is usually near the previous day's low.
Trendlines:
Drawing trendlines on the chart connecting multiple highs and lows can help identify sloping support and resistance levels.
Uptrend support is drawn along the rising lows.
Downtrend resistance is drawn along the falling highs.
NIFTY50 Head & Shoulder Pattern in Weekly Charts₹₹Nifty50 making Head & Shoulder in Weekly Charts with Price range of 3000 points(23266-26277). If Chart Pattern play-out perfectly then Target price range will be 2500-3000 points till 20288 levels.
Nifty50 also have a gap on 20288 levels bcoz of Election Results of 4 States on Dec 3,2023 after that rally started. Now Nifty50 can fill this gap if Chart Pattern play-out perfectly.
I will wait for Nifty50 to break down 23266-22777 levels zone & closing below 22777 levels. If Nifty50 close below 22777 levels then Short Nifty50 for Targets of 22122, 21777, 21288, 20777 & 20288 with Stop Loss of 23444.
But this Pattern will fail above levels of 24555.
Most Important we have to carefully watch RELIANCE bcoz it's already at 52 week lows & At Parallel Channel Support in Monthly Charts. If Reliance also give breakdown of channel then it will be easy for Nifty50 to reach all targets. Similarly HDFC BANK at upper Resistance of Parallel Channel in Monthly Charts.
NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 23 Dec 2024NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 23 Dec 2024
Sell_1- From 23970
Invalid-Above 24020
T- 23700
Sell_2-Below 23530
Invalid-Above 23580
T- 23230
NIFTY has closed on a bold bearish note with 4.77% cut last week. Last weekend we discussed that index will be buy on dips till index is above 50 EMA in daily TF. On 17 Dec it closed below that. We will still maintain sell on rise approach till it is below 50 EMA and till it closes below previous day low in daily TF. If tomorrow's 10 o'clock range breaks in the upside then chance of rebound is there so keep an eye.
Coming to Monday's trade setup, if index opens flat and a 15 Min candle closes below 23530 then we will short for the target of 23230.
In case 23970 is tested then we will short from there. T- 23700.
In case of a big gap up/down, wait till 10 o'clock and mark the high and low of the trading range (5MIN). Trade on this range breakout.
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I am Not SEBI Registered
This is my personal analysis for my personal trading. Kindly consult your financial advisor before taking any actions based on this.
Nifty Index Futures: Key Technical Insights for December 2024The Nifty Index Futures chart highlights significant market developments, signaling potential shifts in momentum. Here’s a concise analysis:
Key Highlights
Trendline Breakdown:
The long-standing upward channel has been breached, indicating bearish pressure.
Bearish Patterns:
A confirmed head-and-shoulders pattern with a neckline breakdown suggests further downside.
Emerging lower highs and lower lows confirm a bearish trend structure.
Critical Levels:
Resistance: 24,400 and 25,000.
Support: 23,625, 23,222, and 21,827.
Scenarios:
Bullish: A recovery above 24,400 could target 25,000.
Bearish: Sustained trading below 23,625 may lead to 23,222 or lower.
Trade Plan:
Short Trade: Consider shorting below 23,625 with a stop-loss at 24,000 and targets at 23,222 and 21,827.
Nifty - Is it still Bullish ?I agree Inverted Head and Shoulder pattern failed but short sellers are safe while left out Retail Option Buyers taken long bets are in loss now. As per wave pattern chart is still in last stage of Bullish stage. OI data indicating the same view. If someone manipulating to eat everyone else in market, then can't help. Indian Share market is going out of control these days with someone with bigger money power eating the entire market with manipulations. Our market are in Option Sellers gang control now. Retail Option Buyers better stay away other than long term Investing in Nifty 50 shares.
#Nifty directions and levels for December 20th.Good morning, friends! 🌞
Here are the market directions and levels for December 20th.
Market Overview:
Both the global and local markets are maintaining a bearish sentiment. Today, the market may open with a slight gap-down start, as the Nifty is indicating a negative 80 points at 8:00 AM.
In the previous session, both Nifty and Bank Nifty experienced a minor pullback after the long gap-down. Although the structure remains bearish, we can expect a continuation only if it breaks the previous day's low with solid movement. If this happens, we can anticipate a target of 78% in the minor swing.
On the other hand, if the market initially pulls back without breaking yesterday's low, or if it finds support at the immediate support level with gradual movements, then we can expect a pullback of 23% to 38%. This is the basic structure. Otherwise, we can follow the same sentiment that we discussed in the previous session, as nothing has changed.
Nifty Intraday Support & Resistance Levels for 20.12.2024On Thursday, Nifty opened with a huge gap-down, touching a low of 23870.30, taking support near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, and slightly recovering to a high of 24004.90. It ended the session at 23951.70, breaking below the critical 24000 psychological mark, losing 247 points. This marks the fourth consecutive negative session. Both the Weekly Trend (50 SMA) and Daily Trend (50 SMA) are sideways.
Demand/Support Zones
Near Support: 23872 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level)
Near Demand/Support Zone (75m): 23447.15 - 23578.60
Far Support: 23263 (low of 21st November 2024)
Far Demand/Support Zone (Daily): 21791.95 - 22910.15
Supply/Resistance Zones
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (125m): 24601.75 - 24698.10
Near Supply/Resistance Zone (Weekly): 24567.65 - 25234.05 (tested)
Far Supply/Resistance Zone (Daily): 25739.20 - 25907.60
Far Supply/Resistance Zone (Daily): 26151.40 - 26277.35
Key Insights
Nifty continues to face strong resistance at 24700 - 25000 levels and has now fallen below 24000, a key psychological level. If 25000 is not reclaimed soon and 23000 breaks, the index could witness further downside or prolonged sideways movement in the coming months.
Trading Strategy for Nifty for 20th December 2024Trading Strategy for Nifty (15-Minute Time Frame)
Key Levels:
Buy Above: The high of the 15-minute candle which closes above 24,010
Sell Below: The low of the 15-minute candle which closes below 23,868
Targets:
Upside Targets: 24,075, 24,125
Downside Targets: 23,825, 23,775
Strategy Details:
Buy Signal: Enter a buy position above the high of the 15-minute candle that closes above 24,010, aiming for targets of 24,075 and 24,125.
Sell Signal: Enter a sell position below the low of the 15-minute candle that closes below 23,868, aiming for targets of 23,825 and 23,775.
Trailing Stop-Loss: Use a trailing stop-loss to manage risk and protect your capital.
Book Profits: Regularly book profits at the specified resistance and support levels.
Additional Tips:
Monitoring: Continuously monitor the 15-minute chart for clear buy or sell signals.
Risk Management: Always use stop-loss orders to manage risk and protect your capital.
Market Conditions: Stay updated on market news and events that could impact Nifty.
Disclaimer:
I am not SEBI registered. This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. Please consult with a certified financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
19th Dec24 Strong Entry by the Bears, We Are Back At Sell ZoneNifty Stance Bearish ⬇
The opening hour on Friday really set the tone and I had published in tradingview minds that if we get a close below 24466, it's better to go short. Guess what, we closed below 24466, but the short trade did not really work out then.
Markets are rigged to the core, someone or some institution is really manipulating the markets, because nothing else can justify the 354pts ~ 1.45% down move followed by a 608pts ~ 2.52% upmove. Whoever played it, knew pretty well that it was SENSEX expiry that had to be targetted and it worked out as per their script.
How did I guess it was manipulation? Simple, look at the price action on Monday and Tuesday - there was no follow-through and the bull action was just for nothing. In fact the down move was equally powerful as well. We were back at the swing low on the 18th, Wednesday. Markets gave away 600pts over 3 days after rallying 600pts on 13th Dec. Today we fell another 247pts ~ 1.02% mainly because of spill-over effects from the US markets - that ended up tanking 3%.
On a week-to-week basis, we are down 2.36% ~ 578pts. Making money is getting more difficult now, especially with the manipulations that are driving up the ITM options prices. What is more alarming is the increased margin requirements on expiry day are really shooting up the prices and I have not figured out the exact quantity/lots that could be taken overnight without getting a margin call.
My stance is bearish and would like it if markets are closing near 23350 levels by 26th Dec.
NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 20 Dec 2024NIFTY Intraday Trade Setup For 20 Dec 2024
Bullish-Above 24010
Invalid- Below 23960
T- 24220
Bearish-Below 23850
Invalid-Above 23900
T- 23650
NIFTY has closed on a bearish note with 1% cut today. It opened with a big gap down due to global cues and it sustained the gap down. 10 o'clock range was to be used but index traded between the same for the whole day. 24k was tested multiple times so if index sustains above 24k then chance of a gap filling can be there. Below 23850 plain vanilla trendy short can be planned.
Coming to Friday's trade setup, if index opens flat and a 15 Min candle closes above 24010 then we will long for the target of 24220.
For selling we need a 15 Min candle close below 23850. T- 23650.
In case of a big gap up/down, wait till 10 o'clock and mark the high and low of the trading range (5MIN). Trade on this range breakout.
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I am Not SEBI Registered
This is my personal analysis for my personal trading. Kindly consult your financial advisor before taking any actions based on this.
Nifty Hourly Analysis | December Expiry | 24000Nifty has shown a resistance near 50% retracement of all time and swing low 24770.
Looks like wave B has completed.
we will observe the Price tomorrow near 24500 or below Yesterday low. Shorts can be initiated on weakness with Protective SL of 24772 and Target of 24150-24060- 23970 in 1-2 Days.
We can see 24k on this expiry.
NIFTY prediction for tomorrow 20 Dec 24As we discussed yesterday, the market opened at -250 points and spent the whole day sideways in a tight range.
If we look at the chart now:
The market is at a crucial point that can provide good support. Also, the price is very far from the EMAs, which might retrace to the EMAs. The market might reverse from this point. Right now, the market is neutral.
Support levels: 23772, 23488, 23363
Resistance levels: 24339, 200 EMA, 24682
If we look at the OI data:
PCR = 0.7, which has increased from 0.4, shows put addition at the lower level. 24000 has good support and resistance points. This is going to work as max pain. As it's the start of the week, OI won't play much of a role.
I am expecting
Case 1: Bullish if take support at 24950.
Case 2: Bearish if it breaks the level 24950 to the downside.
Reason:
RSI < 40 shows a good Bearish structure. (bearish)
Price < EMA(13, 50, 200), which indicates a good bearish structure. (Bearish)
PCR = 0.7 indicates a neutral market.
price < VWAP shows a good bullish structure in the market.
Verdict: Neutral
Plan of action:
Sell 23950 CE and 23950 PE and adjust your position as per the price action at 23950.
#Nifty directions and levels for December 19th.Good morning, friends! 🌞
Here are the market directions and levels for December 19th.
Market Overview:
After the Fed rate cut, the Dow Jones fell drastically and ended with a negative change of 2.5%. This also affected the Nifty. Therefore, today the market may open with a significant gap-down, indicating that the Nifty is expected to start 330 points lower.
The global sentiment suggests there is a bearish bias. If you look at the charts from a broader perspective, the Nifty is showing a negative trend, while the Bank Nifty appears to be range-bound. Thus, both indices are displaying slightly different biases. However, my expectation is that, even though the Bank Nifty has a range-bound structure, it could reach a minimum correction of 78% in the minor swing. More or less, the current trend indicates a negative outlook. If the gap-down sustains today, we can expect a continuation of the correction with some consolidation. A reversal could be considered if there is a breakout at the EMA 20 or the 38% Fibonacci level in the minor swing. Until these factors occur, the trend could remain bearish.
Additionally, I checked the volume profile and EMA 200 for long-term trend projections. Both the Nifty and Bank Nifty have yet to break the EMA 200, which means the higher degree trend is still bullish until it breaks that level. However, the volume profile is showing initial indications of a reversal in the Nifty, while the Bank Nifty has not yet shown this because the 51,500 level (in futures contracts) is providing good support based on the volume profile.
Conclusion: There is no clear direction yet from the combination of the Nifty and Bank Nifty charts. Therefore, we should approach this correction as a minor trend only.
US10Yrs. Bond Yield parallel channel. Nifty up move confirmationUS Government 10Yrs. Bond Yield trading in parallel channel. After fake break out it come down in channel again. As per chart it may correct up to 4%,3.79% and 3.06% level soon.
It has inverse relation with index, so nifty and bank nifty may give good up move in next 2-3 months as both charts suggested also the same.
Nifty Trading Strategy for 19th December 2024Nifty Trading Strategy
Key Levels:
Buy Above: The high of the 15-minute candle that closes above 24,315
Sell Below: The low of the 15-minute candle that closes below 24,125
Targets:
Upside Targets: 24,444, 24,533
Downside Targets: 24,010, 23,950, 23,850
Strategy Details:
Buy Signal: Enter a buy position above the high of the 15-minute candle that closes above 24,315, aiming for targets of 24,444 and 24,533.
Sell Signal: Enter a sell position below the low of the 15-minute candle that closes below 24,125, aiming for targets of 24,010, 23,950, and 23,850.
Additional Tips:
Monitoring: Continuously monitor the 15-minute chart for clear buy or sell signals.
Risk Management: Always use stop-loss orders to manage risk and protect your capital.
Market Conditions: Stay updated on market news and events that could impact Nifty.
Disclaimer:
I am not SEBI registered. This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. Please consult with a certified financial advisor before making any trading decisions.