Short
The Elliptical Consolidation [Weekly Analysis: 13 - 17 July, 26]The Nifty 50 Index NSE:NIFTY has been in a range-bound consolidation since the 12th of June, 2026. To extend the range of analysis, it can be observed that the market is in the same range since the 08th of April, 2026. Thus, for the past four months, the Nifty 50 index has been in a sideways consolidation. It has been a painful journey for both the investors as well as the traders.
Contracting the range of price action, if we observe the range-bound consolidation since the 12th of June till now, then an "Elliptical Consolidation" is well evident. From another point of view, it can also be observed that the price structure is forming a probable structure of a "Head-&-Shoulder Pattern." The neckline of the probable H&S pattern is in the zone of (23850 - 23800). There is also strong resistance in the zone of (24600 - 24550).
Evidence of an Outlier Price Action (not part of the Elliptical Consolidation):
If we consider the price action in the date range (03rd July - 08th July, 2026), the structure is formed outside the mathematical boundaries of the Elliptical Consolidation Zone. This outlier can be considered as a "typical bull trap" price structure. The price action gave hope to the bulls to build a long-term position. However, it was only a deception. On the contrary, irrespective of the evidence of a bull trap, the bears have also failed to push down the market to extreme levels. The bulls are offering solid support to keep the market cushioned from bearishness.
🟡 The Zone of Confusion: (24300 - 24100).
Technically, in the range-bound market, nobody wins. In the present scenario, there is an equal probability of a bearish breakdown as well as a bullish breakout. The decision of the future trend will be made in the zone of confusion (24300 - 24100). There is a high probability that the price might be extremely volatile in the zone of confusion. Thus, we have to be patient enough to wait for either a breakdown or a breakout.
🟢 Bullish Scenario
A confident bullish move might emerge if the price properly sustains above the level of 24300. The probable bullish targets above the level of 24300 would be - 24400, 24500, 24600, and 24700.
🔴 Bearish Scenario
A weak bearish scenario is expected if the price breaks down below the level of 24100. The first bearish target below 24100 would be 24000. The price would receive good support at 24000. Next, if the price decisively breaks down below 24000, then the probable bearish targets would be - 23900, 23800, 23700, and 23600.
⏺ Range of Consolidation (ROC): (24300 - 23800).
A proper breakout above 24300 would trigger bullish hope. But a proper breakdown below 23800 would trigger bearish sentiment.
● Event
No high-impact event this week. No holidays this week. We have only two expiries to deal with. Geopolitical issues are omnipresent.
● Intraday Bias
Establish intraday bias with respect to the opening price. If the price sustains above the opening price, then don't think of shorting. Look for bullish trades only. On the contrary, if the price sustains below the opening price, then don't think of going long. Look for bearish trades in that case.
● Disclaimer + End Note
- All the analyses would fail in the case of a major gap up, gap down, or price structure anomaly. Thus, practice PRAGMATISM in the live session.
- Trade only if there is a set-up. Remember, not trading is an extension of the trading activity.
- Mark your points. Trade your points. Price is GOD. Anything can happen in the markets. Thus, trade what you see, not what you believe.
- Always PRACTICE RISK MANAGEMENT. Always PROTECT YOUR CAPITAL. Be RESPONSIBLE.
- Be Strategic. Be Courageous. Be Patient. Be Wise.
- Every day is a new day. Thus, do not carry the baggage of past successes or failures. Leave the gardens of winning and losing. Establish yourself in equanimity. Always think from a new perspective.
- Let the joy of trading drive your effectiveness, not greed or fear. Believe in Possibilities.
Happy Trading! Long 
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