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First channel on Nifty monthly chartI just realized that entire history of Nifty50 can be seen as three neat patterns on monthly chart. This is the first chart for the first 13 years of the exchange and the index. It gave a healthy return of 15% per annum, when banks deposits also gave lower double digit returns.
I personally don't believe anyone could have recognized the pattern and invested to beat others. However, one could argue that the pattern was obvious by late 1990s.
Nifty- Gartley Ki School @1085010:00 Hrs - 21st Dec 2018
Last Price@10920
As suggested in the profile update before market hours- look for 10850-10860 zone for buying where CD leg of Gartley completes. Currently running down from 10960's - You need to check settings tab in "ideas stream" to get updates & ideas in time.
We are already 40 points down in D leg -selling from tops 10960's
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Auropharma Update
Cheers for Auropharma buying at 721 for 730 target done & above 730 -we look for 740-742 zone as suggested in last video under plan D
Last Video Idea
Plan D - Buy between 720-722 if 720 holds downside for 730 & later above 730 for 740-742 zone - Yesterday day low@721.10
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Have a nice weekend.
Auropharma - The Wick-ed Game Show@751" Wick -ed ucational" show
We have discussed about Candlestick Analysis in this video idea. Any candlestick has 2 important components
Wick
Real Body
If these "wick" turns wicked on account of FED decision then -call him & he shall help you - "Who" - Our lord Hanuman.
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Trading Strategy
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13:10 Hrs -19th Dec 2018
We continue from last Idea published comment - SBIN -Ulta Pulta - TradingView Exciting Feature. Have sold close from 740 as per update for target 730 & lower
SBIN rocks at 301 as suggested in last video buy above 285 for Risky Traders & Safe Traders Buy above 295 mark - "Ulta Pulta"
Plan A - Sell Call
Selling below 740 for 730 below 729 for 720-722 & below 715 for more on downside
Plan B - Sell Call------- Had Gravestone Doji Candlestick Pattern at 751 Highs
Selling close to 750-751 (Already done once for target 730)
Plan C - Sell Call--------Had Bearish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern at 758 highs
Selling close to 755-757 with stops above 760 for downside target 730 & same as suggested above
Plan D - Safe Traders Buy
Plan to buy when you see 720-722 zone is good support - not going below 720 for upside target 730 & above 730 for 740
Plan E - Risky Traders Buy
Buy if 715 -717 holds then look for 730 and same as mentioned above.
Plan F
Sell below 715 - It should not move above 720-722 zone after selling below 715 then expect target downside as 700 - below 700 for 650-655 zone.
Thanks for watching the video & your precious time.
Vijaya Bank - Never Ending Journey -15 YearsHello All,
Someone who bought this share in 2003 expecting better prospects but got stuck in 15 years cycle which it is passing through at present.
It is 2018 & you have already spent big part of your effort, patience & expectation in this stock since last 15 years & you are about to give up when good times could knock at your door soon.
One has to go through trouble of hardwork, pain & patience before they can take advantage of good days, even Lord Rama had to pass 14 years in pain & sufferings before he came back to his kingdom & ruled for rest of his life.
My suggestion to investors -Don’t give up so easily as every tunnel has the end.
Why I am saying this has following points which can lead to your happy days or end of the tunnel in which you have been travelling along with Vijaya Bank since last 15 years.
Vijaya Bank is in 15 years mega irregular triangle where B-Wave which ended @115 Highs above Wave –A.
Irregular Triangles
Irregular Triangles are special structures where its second leg Wave -B can move above or below its starting leg in this case –starting leg is Wave -A which started from 76 Highs in April 2004 & was a complex wave itself divided into 3 parts- “circled wave abc” ending at Lows@20. Wave-B made new highs above 76 mark so it is known as Irregular Triangle.
Similarly, Larger Wave –B is also three part structure – “circled wave abc” & so on
We are in the final part –Larger Wave –E which is close to end or possibly may spend a year+ more before everything gets settled & possibly we may see a spurt or thrust soon from this 15 years Triangle taking to new highs above 115.
I assume when this happens you will feel blessed, best part about this stock is that we are most likely to see unwinding effect / uncoiling effect discussed in Edwards & Magee Technical Analysis Book- Important Reversal Patterns
Stock has spent 15 years of exile as compared to other counterparts - Think of Lord Rama & Enjoy.
May Lord bless all of us.
SBIN - Ulta Pulta -TradingView FeatureSBIN - Turn it upside done (Ulta Pulta) - TradingView Exciting Feature
Head and Shoulder & Inverse Head & Shoulder (killroy)
Book - Technical Analysis of Stock Trends by Edwards and Magee
The Head and Shoulders Bottom (Reverse Head and Shoulders) is created by three successive declines in the price following a significant downtrend. The lowest low (head) is in the middle, anked by two higher lows (shoulders) at roughly the same level. Volume is highest as the price makes the rest two declines, then diminishes through the right shoulder. Finally volume surges as the price closes above the neckline – drawn between the two highs – to conform the BULLISH reversal. The Head and Shoulders Top is the bearish counterpart signaling a major trend reversal downward.
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Short Term Trading Strategy
Risky Traders
Look to buy if 285 is intact downside - holding above 285 we shall look for 310-320 target zone as shown using magical box in the video
Safe Traders
Look to buy only above 295 for 310-320 target zone as mentioned above in risky traders strategy
Traditional Target (Bookish Measurement)
Vertical Distance from Head to Neckline - projecting it from neckline above or below once right shoulder formation is done & you see volume surges or increase as a confirmation tool for respective direction move.
In current case traditional target comes between 335 -340 zone only once it crosses above 325 and holds above that level for 335 -340 target zone
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Long Term Trading Strategy
Plan A- Selling at tops
If stock faces resistance between 310-320 zone be careful as fall could be severe taking it down all the way to 250 -230 & even close to 200 levels.
Plan B- Buying at bottoms
If you get the stock between 200-210 zone & it gets support then look for explosive move back to 300 - 335 -350 & above 350 - "Up -Up & Away" post the expected fall as discussed in Plan A above
Thanks for watching the video. Have a nice trading week ahead.
Auropharma – 831 to 750 - A crack!Auropharma – 831 to 750 What a crack!
Risky Traders – get ready to lose 4-5 points and gain 50+ points – closing statement in the video idea – “Once bitten twice shy” as of 4th Dec 2018.
If the stock moves in line as you expected giving us an exact entry as well to be precise 825-827 zone when it closed overnight at 821 levels has to be dream come true scenario for an analyst.
Flashback
Overnight (As of 4 - 6th Dec 2018) , Auro was moving within rising wedge –a common term used by traditional analyst until I came to know about wave analysis where the same structure was termed as “ending diagonal” – a overlapping structure which indicated that the upward structure could be ending soon.
Rising Wedge
When a financial instrument (which could be stocks, forex, commodities, bonds etc,) price has been rising over time, trendlines drawn above and below the price chart pattern can converge to show a potential reversal point at a peak. This reversal point can indicate a bearish price point signal in which the security’s price is subsequently expected to reverse lower.
In our case the peak was 831 High and we got excellent selling opportunity close to the peak at 825-826 zone – High was 826.70/826.80- rest is the history
Target achieved – 794 as suggested over the video with small pause and breaks at 815 -810 zone.
This pattern is used by traditional analyst and wave analyst
Books – Technical Analysis -Edwards and Magee ,Wave Analysis - Frost and Prechter
Polarity Reversal = History Repeats
What happens is that history essentially repeats itself, but the role of price at that level changes from resistance to support and vice versa.
Polarity Reversal concept explained in my favorite book which was the first one I referred for the journey of technical analysis written by – Edwards and Magee.
Important Polarity Reversal zones in last week
790-792
777-775
Candlestick Analysis
Evening Star – 3 candlestick pattern as suggested in the book – Candlestick Analysis by Steve Nison
Steve Nison – Father of Candlestick Analysis.
Book – Candlestick Analysis by Steve Nison
Harmonic Analysis
Bearish Crab - Excellent Harmonic Structure occurring at 831 was an amazing clue
Book - Harmonic Analysis by Scott Carney
Trendline / Channels
Book – Technical Analysis by Edwards and Magee is the reference book.
Financial Astrology
Term used by financial astrologer- “Retrograde” was also updated in previous video idea of the Nifty Index – “Mercury, Markets and Mayhem below 10800” – Mercury retrograde runs till 6th Dec 2018 – if you haven’t gone crazy – don’t worry market will make you crazy.
Note-
As updated/suggested on 29th / 30th Nov 2018 in last Nifty Video Idea comment section –we expected to be cautious from 10950-11000 zone which was danger zone
What type of analyst are you? You just had to pick and execute –rest you were bound to enjoy the markets.
Finally, It was kaka’s blessing directly from Bollywood (Kaka – Late Rajesh Khanna) – stands out to be real tribute to this Bollywood actor in the creative way (audio clip) as updated in last video idea.
Thanks.
2018 Sept 17 Trade Plan for IDFC, next target is 60.20
IDFC: On the basis of volume as well as Marked Delivery, it is preferred choice. As per my data analysis there is a financial institute action or High Net Worth buying or Operator move emerged in the counter, resulted more than 70% marked delivery. This is the highest marked delivery value in the calendar year, (i had excluded 28th March. It was the day before year’s final future session, it seems it was ritualized JV between Funds.)
Considering volatility of 14th Sept. session (+40), it seems that it was one of the the rare combinations of volatility as well as marked delivery.
Chart it is suggesting next top level of 60.20. Of course, it is in my intraday gainer list for target of 51.30 Swing target is 55.30
In short, after a long time, IDFC is in Intraday, Swing and Investment list.
Trade Plan : I am going to buy in the first few candles, of course below 51.35, The assumption is, in the Morning Euphoria, to take the first move advantage, the counter shall move higher to form Higher High. I Shall book 50% at that rate, as intraday trader. Since i have long term view, my planned SL is 48.10, But i shall hardly triggered Stop Loss at that rate, as share had formed few technical patterns from June 18 to Sept 18. like rounding bottom, formation of cup and handle, recently it had crossed 10 DMA as well it is above 50 DMA. 200 DMA is few points away.
Smile.