ONGC Weekly | Long Term Trendline Support Test — Decision PointOverview
Oil & Natural Gas Corporation — one of India's largest PSU energy companies — is currently testing a critical long term rising trendline on the Weekly chart. This trendline has supported ONGC's price structure since 2020 and is now being tested for the first time in recent memory, making the current price zone one of the most important levels on ONGC's chart.
The Long Term Rising Trendline
Since the 2020 low of ₹50, ONGC has been rising within a well-defined uptrend, supported by a clean rising trendline connecting each major swing low over 5+ years. This trendline has held through multiple market cycles — commodity cycles, global rate changes, and sector rotations.
Current price at ₹235 is sitting right at this trendline — making this a critical weekly support test.
The EMA Structure
Two EMAs provide additional context:
📉 50 Weekly EMA at ₹259 — price is currently below the 50 Weekly EMA, which has now turned into resistance. This is a bearish signal on the weekly timeframe.
📉 200 Weekly EMA at ₹229 — price is approaching the 200 Weekly EMA from above. A close below this level would be a significant long term bearish signal for ONGC.
The confluence of the long term trendline + 200 Weekly EMA in the ₹227–229 zone creates a powerful support cluster just below current price.
Key Levels
🔴 Resistance 1 — 259 (50 Weekly EMA)
🔴 Resistance 2 — 300
🔴 Resistance 3 — 345 (Recent High)
🟡 Current Price — 235
🟢 Trendline Support — 227 (approx)
🟢 200 Weekly EMA — 229
🟢 Major Psychological Support — 200
Two Scenarios
🟢 Scenario A — Trendline Holds
Price finds support at the trendline + 200 Weekly EMA confluence zone (₹227–229) and bounces. First recovery target is reclaiming the 50 Weekly EMA at ₹259, then ₹300, and eventually a retest of the recent high at ₹345.
This would be a classic long term trendline bounce — a high significance level for positional and long term traders.
🔴 Scenario B — Trendline Breaks
A weekly close below ₹227 breaks both the long term trendline and the 200 Weekly EMA simultaneously. This would be a major structural breakdown for ONGC — signaling a potential shift in the long term trend. The ₹200 psychological support becomes the next key reference level.
Why This Level Matters
A trendline that has held for 5+ years carries enormous significance. Every time it has been tested, buyers have stepped in. The current test is happening simultaneously with the 200 Weekly EMA — creating a double confluence support zone.
When two independent long term support structures align at the same price, the reaction from that zone tends to be decisive in either direction.
Conclusion
ONGC is at a technically significant junction on the Weekly chart. The long term rising trendline and 200 Weekly EMA are both being tested simultaneously near ₹227–229. How price reacts at this confluence will define ONGC's trajectory for the coming months.
Watch the weekly close carefully — it will tell the next chapter.
For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always manage your risk. 
Long
Long
Short 
Long 
Long 
Long
Long 
Long 
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC)- LongOil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) on a 15-minute timeframe from NSE, showing an Inverted Head and Shoulders (IHS) pattern. Let’s break it down:
1. Identification of Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern
Left Shoulder: The first smaller dip before the major drop.
Head: The lowest point in the pattern, indicating the strongest bearish move.
Right Shoulder: A higher low after the head, showing a potential reversal.
Neckline: The resistance level that connects the highs between the shoulders and head. The breakout above this neckline confirms the pattern.
2. Volume Analysis
Volume increases significantly during the breakout, confirming the validity of the pattern.
The rise in volume indicates strong buying interest, which is a bullish sign.
3. Moving Averages (EMA)
The price has crossed above the 200 EMA (purple line), which is a strong bullish signal.
The short-term moving averages (e.g., 9 EMA, 21 EMA) are also trending upwards, further supporting the bullish trend.
4. Entry and Exit Points
Entry: The best entry point is above the neckline breakout level, around 230-231, once confirmed with volume.
Stop-loss: Place a stop-loss just below the right shoulder, around 224-225.
Target (Exit Point): The projected target is calculated by adding the depth of the head to the neckline. This gives a target of around 243-244, which aligns with the previous resistance level (blue line).
Conclusion
The Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern is confirmed with a breakout and volume spike.
Bullish bias as price has crossed above the 200 EMA.
The price is likely to move toward 243-244 INR in the short term.
This analysis is for **educational and informational purposes only** and should not be considered as financial or investment advice. Trading and investing in financial markets involve risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research, consult a qualified financial advisor, and use proper risk management strategies before making any trading decisions. The author is not responsible for any financial losses incurred based on this analysis. Long 
Long 
Long 
Long 
Channel Breakout with Retest Formation, Targeting Strong UpsideDetails:
Asset: Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC)
Breakout Level: 270
Potential Target: 300+
Stop Loss: Below 270 or as per risk management strategy
Timeframe: Medium-term
Rationale: ONGC is displaying a classic channel breakout with a retest formation, signaling strong bullish potential. Sustaining above the 270 level may trigger a significant upward rally, with the stock poised for robust momentum.
Market Analysis:
Technical Setup: The breakout from the channel, followed by a retest, indicates a confirmed bullish pattern. If sustained, the stock is likely to see a sharp move upward.
Sector Outlook: ONGC, being a leader in energy and oil exploration, benefits from rising crude oil prices and global energy demand. Positive macroeconomic factors further support the stock’s bullish potential.
Price Target:
Short-term: 300
Further Upside: To be determined based on momentum
Risk Management:
Place a stop loss just below 270 to safeguard against unexpected downside moves.
Timeframe:
Expected move to 300 and beyond in the medium term, driven by technical and fundamental catalysts.
Risk-Reward Ratio:
Attractive, with minimal risk near the breakout level and substantial upside potential.
Traders should monitor price action and volume closely for further confirmation and adjust positions based on broader market trends. Long 
Long 
Long
